(04-08-2021 11:26 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

He essentially replaces Baugh who was averaging 3.4 ppg in 20 mpg. Might not be as good a defender but he can certainly average more that 3 points in 20 minutes.

Unless we sign a top guard and Lawson, then he'll get about 10 a game.

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

Interesting that you and Penny have already evaluated both and have decided their respective roles for a team that still doesn't have a set roster, for a season that is still 7 months away.

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Teague played 35 minutes and averaged 16.7 points at UNC Asheville, but would only be allowed to average 5 points per game? Was he upset when Teague played 33 minutes and averaged 13.9 and 15.7 points at Baylor?

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Flagler played 31 minutes and averaged 15.9 points at Presbyterian but would only be allowed to average 4 points at Baylor? Was he upset that Flagler averaged 9.1 points in 23 minutes? Did you tell Scott Drew that Flagler wouldn't be allowed to increase his field goal percentage, three point percentage and free throw percentage at Baylor?

Penny needs to know these things before you both decide.

(04-08-2021 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 11:26 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

He essentially replaces Baugh who was averaging 3.4 ppg in 20 mpg. Might not be as good a defender but he can certainly average more that 3 points in 20 minutes.

Probably so. And I have ZERO problems with that.

It just more falls to the suckas who are out here thinking that he's gonna straight up replace Boogie and go for 14 and 6 next year.

THEN...when he doesn't, these fools will be all over him.

Hell, I was just looking back at a thread about expectations for the 2018-19 season and there were folks who were literally arguing with me that incoming frosh Lomax was going to get more minutes a game than rising senior Jeremiah Martin.


And looking back at how Usman Haruna was going to be a surprise get (dude scored 53 points in two seasons) or that I shouldn't poo-poo Tubby recruiting Jordan Hardwick (54 points in three seasons at Coppin State) or how Damien Wilson is going to be an immediate impact player.

It's wash, risne, repeat.

Just have reasonable expectations.

He would only have to go for 10 and 2 to replace Boogie but of course, Boogie was capable of putting up 25 when his shot was falling. They are still looking for another scoring guard.

(04-08-2021 11:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3
6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1
3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.

Quote:Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Proctor went from 22.5 points per 40 minutes to 14.1 points per 40 minutes, so that is a horrible example. If Warren maintains the same production it doesn't matter if he plays 10, 15, 20 minutes or more, he will for sure be a productive part of our team.

Nobody was expecting Wilson to be a game breaker. Shaq and Wilson transferred from mid major D1 programs, so the comparison isn't relevant.

For some reason you left out the Baylor guys. I guess they didn't fit the narrative.

(04-08-2021 12:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

Interesting that you and Penny have already evaluated both and have decided their respective roles for a team that still doesn't have a set roster, for a season that is still 7 months away.

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Teague played 35 minutes and averaged 16.7 points at UNC Asheville, but would only be allowed to average 5 points per game? Was he upset when Teague played 33 minutes and averaged 13.9 and 15.7 points at Baylor?

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Flagler played 31 minutes and averaged 15.9 points at Presbyterian but would only be allowed to average 4 points at Baylor? Was he upset that Flagler averaged 9.1 points in 23 minutes? Did you tell Scott Drew that Flagler wouldn't be allowed to increase his field goal percentage, three point percentage and free throw percentage at Baylor?

Penny needs to know these things before you both decide.

So, as of now, are you saying Warren is going to start? Clearly, Memphis has:

Lomax
Les
Earl
Landers
Jayden

at the 1/2/3 right now.

Lest assume (and fairly) that those above (and Warren) will be the only folks on the roster at the 1/2/3.

If we assume ALo will come back at his 20 minutes a game and Les and Landers each come back at 26 and 27 minutes and Jayden gets his usual 5 minutes a half, then we're at 83 minutes.

So there are 37 minutes to share for Warren and Earl.

One is a 6'6 top 40 recruit who started as a frosh, and scored double figures in five of his first seven games. He's regarded as a possible 1st round draft talent.

The other is a 6'6 guy who isn't on any draft boards and hasn't performed against any high level competition.

You think they will split the 37 minutes evenly? You think Les, ALo, or Landers will LOSE minutes? You think Penny won't use Jayden?

I would guess, barring injury, it would be entirely reasonable to slot Earl at 25 minutes a game at least. I could also see Les and Landers getting closer to 28-30 mpg with Alex at 20-22. Jayden may lose a couple to be around 6-8 mpg.

That comes to 111 minutes.

There are only 120 to go around.

Do the math.

(And this doesn't even include what will be out there if J. Lawson comes in).

(04-08-2021 12:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 11:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3
6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1
3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.

Quote:Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Proctor went from 22.5 points per 40 minutes to 14.1 points per 40 minutes, so that is a horrible example. If Warren maintains the same production it doesn't matter if he plays 10, 15, 20 minutes or more, he will for sure be a productive part of our team.

Nobody was expecting Wilson to be a game breaker. I had no idea that Shaq and Wilson transferred from mid major D1 programs. Do you have a link?

For some reason you left out the Baylor guys. I guess they didn't fit the narrative.

Huh?

Proctor averaged 22.5/per 40 at HIGH POINT where he averaged 19.5 ppg.

He xferred to Purdue and saw his playing time decrease, his ppg decrease to 9 ppg, AND his productivity go down too--just 14.1/per 40.


I didn't leave out Baylor. I provide two links to transfers.

Teague is a guy who had exceeded expectations. BUT--he also put up his numbers for two teams that went 28-8 in the Big South, finished first both seasons, played postseason ball both years, and finished 110 and 187 in KP. As opposed for playing for a team that was 7th in the Big South and 327 in KP. And he was a sit out a year transfer. Teague is old AF, too. He turned 23 the summer before the 2020-21 season.

Flagler has a spectacular frosh year at 20 win Presbyterian. He was Big South frosh of the year. He then xferred and had the luxury of sitting out a year and doing all the cool things a sit out a year guy can do: get bigger, earn the trust of the coaches, learn the system. And he still saw a decrease in minutes and didn't start one game. He was highly productive in the minutes when he played.

All of that still underscores my theme...these guys won't replicate their numbers, will see a decrease playing time, yada yada. Some of that is offset if other factors come into play: coming from a decent team, having the luxury of sitting out a year, and just being a grown ass man when you get to your new school.

In addition, both the Baylor kids weren't halfway done in their CBB careers. They still had upward growth potential as players.

Warren just finished his 4th year of JUCO/College ball.

(04-08-2021 12:32 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 12:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  And the addition of Timberlake immediately makes dude a bench player.

Which is great for depth.

I just hope a guy who was playing 35+ mpg and taking any shot he wants will be ok with being a reserve.

Interesting that you and Penny have already evaluated both and have decided their respective roles for a team that still doesn't have a set roster, for a season that is still 7 months away.

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Teague played 35 minutes and averaged 16.7 points at UNC Asheville, but would only be allowed to average 5 points per game? Was he upset when Teague played 33 minutes and averaged 13.9 and 15.7 points at Baylor?

Was Scott Drew disappointed when you informed him that Flagler played 31 minutes and averaged 15.9 points at Presbyterian but would only be allowed to average 4 points at Baylor? Was he upset that Flagler averaged 9.1 points in 23 minutes? Did you tell Scott Drew that Flagler wouldn't be allowed to increase his field goal percentage, three point percentage and free throw percentage at Baylor?

Penny needs to know these things before you both decide.

So, as of now, are you saying Warren is going to start? Clearly, Memphis has:

Lomax
Les
Earl
Landers
Jayden

at the 1/2/3 right now.

Lest assume (and fairly) that those above (and Warren) will be the only folks on the roster at the 1/2/3.

If we assume ALo will come back at his 20 minutes a game and Les and Landers each come back at 26 and 27 minutes and Jayden gets his usual 5 minutes a half, then we're at 83 minutes.

So there are 37 minutes to share for Warren and Earl.

One is a 6'6 top 40 recruit who started as a frosh, and scored double figures in five of his first seven games. He's regarded as a possible 1st round draft talent.

The other is a 6'6 guy who isn't on any draft boards and hasn't performed against any high level competition.

You think they will split the 37 minutes evenly? You think Les, ALo, or Landers will LOSE minutes? You think Penny won't use Jayden?

I would guess, barring injury, it would be entirely reasonable to slot Earl at 25 minutes a game at least. I could also see Les and Landers getting closer to 28-30 mpg with Alex at 20-22. Jayden may lose a couple to be around 6-8 mpg.

That comes to 111 minutes.

There are only 120 to go around.

Do the math.

(And this doesn't even include what will be out there if J. Lawson comes in).

My math works just fine. It isn't reasonable to disperse minutes so heavy at the top like you are, when we have so much depth. In games at the end of the season, we broke down for long periods because our guys were gassed from pressing so much, and none of our players were playing that much before Lomax got injured.

50 minutes between Nolley and LQ, 60 minutes between Lomax, Warren and Timberlake, and 25 minutes between Minott, Camden and whoever; with Nolley, LQ or Camden getting minutes at the 4 when we go small. If anything, Camden and Jayden will probably struggle to get minutes.

Quote:The other is a 6'6 guy who isn't on any draft boards and hasn't performed against any high level competition.

Dedric Lawson was the leading scorer and rebounder in the entire Big 12 at Kansas, and didn't get drafted. The two Baylor guys aren't on any draft boards either, so that isn't relevant.

In the end, our pressing style of play, and our propensity to foul (and get players in foul trouble), barring injuries, is going to prevent our guys from playing more than 25 minutes per game.

One last thing. LQ averaged 9.5 points per game. The major problem with your reasoning is that you correlate point production as an absolute correlation of a player's value. On our 2006 team that made the Elite 8, CDR averaged 8.3 points per game, Anderson 7.2, and Dozier 5.6. IF Warren and Timberlake average 8 points per game they can still be great players on the 2022 team. I would expect them to average much higher totals if they were playing on the 2019 team.

You look at a player as being no good if they average 6 or 8 points per game. Context is key. We can have a bunch of really good players on a deep team average less than 10 points per game.

(04-08-2021 12:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 12:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 11:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3
6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1
3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.

Quote:Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Proctor went from 22.5 points per 40 minutes to 14.1 points per 40 minutes, so that is a horrible example. If Warren maintains the same production it doesn't matter if he plays 10, 15, 20 minutes or more, he will for sure be a productive part of our team.

Nobody was expecting Wilson to be a game breaker. I had no idea that Shaq and Wilson transferred from mid major D1 programs. Do you have a link?

For some reason you left out the Baylor guys. I guess they didn't fit the narrative.

Huh?

Proctor averaged 22.5/per 40 at HIGH POINT where he averaged 19.5 ppg.

He xferred to Purdue and saw his playing time decrease, his ppg decrease to 9 ppg, AND his productivity go down too--just 14.1/per 40.


I didn't leave out Baylor. I provide two links to transfers.

Teague is a guy who had exceeded expectations. BUT--he also put up his numbers for two teams that went 28-8 in the Big South, finished first both seasons, played postseason ball both years, and finished 110 and 187 in KP. As opposed for playing for a team that was 7th in the Big South and 327 in KP. And he was a sit out a year transfer. Teague is old AF, too. He turned 23 the summer before the 2020-21 season.

Flagler has a spectacular frosh year at 20 win Presbyterian. He was Big South frosh of the year. He then xferred and had the luxury of sitting out a year and doing all the cool things a sit out a year guy can do: get bigger, earn the trust of the coaches, learn the system. And he still saw a decrease in minutes and didn't start one game. He was highly productive in the minutes when he played.

All of that still underscores my theme...these guys won't replicate their numbers, will see a decrease playing time, yada yada. Some of that is offset if other factors come into play: coming from a decent team, having the luxury of sitting out a year, and just being a grown ass man when you get to your new school.

In addition, both the Baylor kids weren't halfway done in their CBB careers. They still had upward growth potential as players.

Warren just finished his 4th year of JUCO/College ball.

Quote:All of that still underscores my theme...these guys won't replicate their numbers, will see a decrease playing time, yada yada.

You are arguing with nobody but yourself on less production. Where everyone is pushing back is when you suggest players are going to have bad attitudes and slicing production by 67% as an absolute, which makes no sense at all. There are tons of cases where that doesn't happen.

You are also talking about things like the NBA draft, and comparing cases where players went to teams in situations that have no comparison to ours.

welp.... I like leaving his future open. Open for him to excel at the D1 level. Uncertainty is the spice of life!

(04-08-2021 12:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 12:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 11:13 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-08-2021 10:52 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(04-07-2021 09:37 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Frankly, I've been pretty damn good at forecasting performances of players over the past few years. Lord knows my JUCO to Memphis have been pretty spot on. And I would see Hampton as slightly better than one of the better JUCO teams.

Also, again, it's important to recognize Hampton essentially only played round Robin in the Big South and went against one of the worst OOC (albeit just 5 games) slates in D1.

You are certainly the self-proclaimed king of recruit predictions. And you were probably closer than most on the jucos of the Tubby era. I'm terrible at it - but I recognize the challenges and that a "50% of their prior year stats" rule leads to wide variation.

IIRC you were not exactly spot-on. Seems you hit with the lowball on Rivers, Brewton, and Thornton. But you missed on Davenport and Parks, who over-performed your predictions.

It's not exact science. All these guys have ability. And it's impossible to predict their work ethic, desire, and heart until we get to know them.

I was pretty damn close overall. I was also the person getting laughed at for saying Damien Wilson would be a 3 and 2 guy and that Shaq would be 6 and 4. I hit Clergeot and Nick Marshall's numbers when people were expecting them to be key players.

It's not really rocket science...it's mostly historical comparisons. BUT...people try to use hope and fandom over precedent.

If folks take the time to look at low major transfers to good D1 programs, they will see the vast majority hit 30-50% of what they did at the low school. You then secondly look at the quality of the low major school and the quality of the high major program to see which side of that number is more likely.

If you have an xfer coming from a NIT team or first four going to a Tulsa or Wake Forest, chances are that person will be more of the 50% or maybe higher, while someone leaving William and Mary or Charleston Southern to UNC will be closer to the 30% range.

Obviously, too, if you have a sit out redshirt guy, that has to be taken into account for comparison purposes.

Here are "impact transfers" from 2019.

https://www.si.com/college/2019/10/25/un...-transfers

10) TJ Holyfield (SFA-TTech): 12.9 ppg, 41% 3pt ------> 8.7 ppg 24% 3pt
9) Anthony Mathis (NMSU-Oregon) 14 ppg, 42% 3pt----> 8 pgg 42%
8) Justin Pierce (Wm&Mary-UNC) 15/9/4----> 6/5/1
7) Lamarr Kimble (st. Joe-Louise) 16/4/3----->5/1/3
6) Shakur Juiston (UNLV-Oregon) 11 ppg 9 rebs ------> 8 ppg 7 rpg
5) Nate Sestina (Bucknell-Uky) 16 ppg 9 rebs----> 7 ppg 5 rebs (0.9 3pt made per game)
4) Christian Keeling (Char So.-UNC) 19/7/3----> 4/3/1
3) Chris Clarke (Va Tech-TTech) 8/6/3---6/8/6
2) Admon Gilder (TA&M-Zags) 13/4/3--->11/4/2
1) Blackshear (Va Tech-UF) 15 and 8 ---> 15 and 9

The low major guys had pretty big dropoffs.

Same for this list:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...20-2020-21

Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Feagin, Cumberland, Irvine, Hazzard, Yuboah, and Andree also saw huge declines in productivity. All more than 50%.

Quote:Proctor went from 19.5 to 9 at a Purdue team that was just .500.

Proctor went from 22.5 points per 40 minutes to 14.1 points per 40 minutes, so that is a horrible example. If Warren maintains the same production it doesn't matter if he plays 10, 15, 20 minutes or more, he will for sure be a productive part of our team.

Nobody was expecting Wilson to be a game breaker. I had no idea that Shaq and Wilson transferred from mid major D1 programs. Do you have a link?

For some reason you left out the Baylor guys. I guess they didn't fit the narrative.

Huh?

Proctor averaged 22.5/per 40 at HIGH POINT where he averaged 19.5 ppg.

He xferred to Purdue and saw his playing time decrease, his ppg decrease to 9 ppg, AND his productivity go down too--just 14.1/per 40.


I didn't leave out Baylor. I provide two links to transfers.

Teague is a guy who had exceeded expectations. BUT--he also put up his numbers for two teams that went 28-8 in the Big South, finished first both seasons, played postseason ball both years, and finished 110 and 187 in KP. As opposed for playing for a team that was 7th in the Big South and 327 in KP. And he was a sit out a year transfer. Teague is old AF, too. He turned 23 the summer before the 2020-21 season.

Flagler has a spectacular frosh year at 20 win Presbyterian. He was Big South frosh of the year. He then xferred and had the luxury of sitting out a year and doing all the cool things a sit out a year guy can do: get bigger, earn the trust of the coaches, learn the system. And he still saw a decrease in minutes and didn't start one game. He was highly productive in the minutes when he played.

All of that still underscores my theme...these guys won't replicate their numbers, will see a decrease playing time, yada yada. Some of that is offset if other factors come into play: coming from a decent team, having the luxury of sitting out a year, and just being a grown ass man when you get to your new school.

In addition, both the Baylor kids weren't halfway done in their CBB careers. They still had upward growth potential as players.

Warren just finished his 4th year of JUCO/College ball.

HUH?

Your reasoning makes no sense at all. It doesn't provide for any context whatsoever to the type of team the player is going to and what their role will be. IF Warren was playing on the 2018 Tiger team, I would expect him to score between 12-15 points per game. On our 2022 team, I would expect him to score between 8-12 points per game.

To demonstrate how silly your argument is, look at two recruiting classes, with the overall rating of each player (high school, prep school, juco) and their point production in their first year in Memphis.

2005
46 Anderson 7.2 ppg
58 CDR 8.3 ppg
79 Dozier 5.6 ppg

2017
155 Davenport 13.3 ppg
162 Johnson 6.9 ppg
203 Brewton 9.1 ppg
304 Parks 8.1 ppg
304 Thornton 5.4 ppg

You are copying and pasting rankings and stats as if every team is the same, every situation is the same. Your data suggests that Parks, Brewton and Davenport were better than AA, CDR and Dozier.

Warren can be the exact same player averaging 14 points playing 30 minutes on the 2018 team as he would be averaging 8 points in 20 minutes on the 2022 team, AND you suggest that if he averages 8 points per game, it means that he isn't that good.

It's the same as suggesting that Few hadn't had any offers because he stayed at Gonzaga. He has had an open offer for virtually every single NCAA D1 vacancy in the last 5 years. None of what you're saying has any value or relevance.

(04-08-2021 03:15 PM)snowtiger Wrote:  welp.... I like leaving his future open. Open for him to excel at the D1 level. Uncertainty is the spice of life!

I have no idea why someone would pigeonhole a player as a mediocre reserve, at 6 points and 3 rebounds. There is a 50/50 chance exactly that happens. There is a 50/50 chance that it doesn't.

Can look at Benjamin Stanley as a good example of how this may play out

Big time player for howard in 2019-2020, transferred to Xavier for 2020-2021 and played in 5 games after getting cleared by the ncaa before injuring his ACL

Went from averaging 22pts and 6rbs to 6pts and 2rbs

I can pigeonhole a 2nd round nba draft pick at #49 by looking at the past ten drafts of guys going 45-54, seeing their production, and getting an idea of what to expect.

May "a" guy break the mold? Sure.

Is is likely someone in that spot will be a key contributor?

No.

For every Dillon Brooks or Jordan Clarkson, you get 10 Tiny Gallons, Josh Selbys, Russ Smiths, or Dakari Johnsons.

Then you realize only 4 guys in that range in the past 10 years (so 100 players) average 10+ ppg.

So, sure, pigeonhole them and be pleasantly surprised if they exceed expectations.

It just is what it is.

(04-09-2021 05:17 PM)stratecashomie Wrote:  Can look at Benjamin Stanley as a good example of how this may play out

Big time player for howard in 2019-2020, transferred to Xavier for 2020-2021 and played in 5 games after getting cleared by the ncaa before injuring his ACL

Went from averaging 22pts and 6rbs to 6pts and 2rbs

They are a dime a dozen going from low major to high major.

Dude here chose Duke and averaged 1.1 ppg there.

And now he's moved on.

And now he's a Don.

Iowa state

(04-09-2021 06:23 PM)memphisike Wrote:  Iowa state

Michael Bolton gonna steal more minutes from Davion?

(04-09-2021 06:23 PM)memphisike Wrote:  Iowa state

Tyler? jk

(04-09-2021 05:17 PM)stratecashomie Wrote:  Can look at Benjamin Stanley as a good example of how this may play out

Big time player for howard in 2019-2020, transferred to Xavier for 2020-2021 and played in 5 games after getting cleared by the ncaa before injuring his ACL

Went from averaging 22pts and 6rbs to 6pts and 2rbs

What is this exactly?

(04-09-2021 06:24 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:23 PM)memphisike Wrote:  Iowa state

Michael Bolton gonna steal more minutes from Davion?

So now every potential transfer sucks, regardless of what school they played at, correct?

(04-09-2021 06:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:24 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(04-09-2021 06:23 PM)memphisike Wrote:  Iowa state

Michael Bolton gonna steal more minutes from Davion?

So now every potential transfer sucks, regardless of what school they played at, correct?

No not at all.

Not sure how you gleaned that.