The time for the Big 12 to raid the ACC was before they signed a giant GOR and back when everyone’s model was fixated on markets.

Back then, the Big 12 could have brought in 6 football centric ACC schools. I tend to think the best choices would have been Florida St, Miami, Clemson, GT, NC St, and VT.

UNC and UVA would have been willing to let this happen because they’d likely end up in the SEC, as the SEC desperately wanted in those states.

That leaves the question of what to do with BC, Cuse, Pitt, Maryland, Duke, and WF. The easiest answer is they merge with the Big East’s WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers, and USF. If Maryland and Rutgers end up joining the Big Ten, you fill in with UCF and Temple(?).

North: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Temple, WVU
South: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, WF, USF, UCF

Or some zipper formation if that’s your fancy—that way everyone gets to play in Florida.

It’s too late now to orchestrate a raid like this because I don’t think there’s any value in it for the SEC to take UVA or UNC—so they don’t release their instate rivals to join the Big 12.

I’m glad the Dude’s followers didn’t all die out. Nice to know the Big 12 fan boys are still hoping for the death of The ACC.

Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

(04-05-2021 08:26 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The time for the Big 12 to raid the ACC was before they signed a giant GOR and back when everyone’s model was fixated on markets.

Surely, the ACC was more vulnerable in early 2013, after Maryland just left and before the GOR was signed, than it is today.

Problem is, the Big 12 was itself even more vulnerable at that time than the ACC as it was still reeling from all the defections of 2010-2012 and its continued existence was being called in to question. So the Big 12 was too busy shoring up its own internal structure to raid the ACC or anyone else.

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Optimal in what way?

(04-05-2021 08:07 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

A "sweetheart deal" is irrelevant if the other side is not interested in joining at all.

Sure. But this is all likely to happen in 2023-2024 when new TV deals are being negotiated for some of the P5 and most importantly for ND, the new CFP deal is up for renewal.

ND has said that the one thing that could make it abandon independence is a playoff structure that makes it very unlikely that any independent could make the field. A new playoff structure for 2025 and onward that significantly raises ND barriers to entry could change the ND calculus. So there is that uncertainty out there.

The B-12 isn't raiding anyone. The conference lost four premiere programs in Nebraska, TA&M, Missouri, and Colorado more than likely because of Texas and had to settle on WV and TCU to stay afloat. There isn't anyone out there in the G5 conferences that can bring the the B-12 a bigger TV contract than they already have and they aren't going to get anyone from the P5 conferences either. The B-12 will lose programs like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas BB before they will expand.

(04-05-2021 09:44 AM)panite Wrote:  The B-12 isn't raiding anyone. The conference lost four premiere programs in Nebraska, TA&M, Missouri, and Colorado more than likely because of Texas and had to settle on WV and TCU to stay afloat. There isn't anyone out there in the G5 conferences that can bring the the B-12 a bigger TV contract than they already have and they aren't going to get anyone from the P5 conferences either. The B-12 will lose programs like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas BB before they will expand.

You might be right. But then again, a Big 12 that can add Clemson and FSU would be significantly strengthened in brand power, which could mean more money for the conference on a per-school basis. Just as adding Texas would do the same for the ACC.

It's not clear to me at least who would have the advantage if the ACC went after Texas and OU at the same time the Big 12 went after FSU and Clemson. Both conferences would have advantages and disadvantages, IMO.

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Close. Drop Maryland. Add most of the SEC East (TN, UGAg, UF, USC-e, UK, Auburn).

(04-05-2021 09:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 08:26 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The time for the Big 12 to raid the ACC was before they signed a giant GOR and back when everyone’s model was fixated on markets.

Surely, the ACC was more vulnerable in early 2013, after Maryland just left and before the GOR was signed, than it is today.

Problem is, the Big 12 was itself even more vulnerable at that time than the ACC as it was still reeling from all the defections of 2010-2012 and its continued existence was being called in to question. So the Big 12 was too busy shoring up its own internal structure to raid the ACC or anyone else.

Exactly—that was the moment when it would have been ideal to split. Of the 13 members:

6 would be safe in the Big 12
2 would be safe in the SEC
1-2 would have been safe in the Big Ten (dependent on ND)

Wake Forest and 2 or 3 others would have been pinched but most everyone would have been secure and the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC would all be fairly even in both strength and tv value.

(04-05-2021 10:00 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Close. Drop Maryland. Add most of the SEC East (TN, UGAg, UF, USC-e, UK, Auburn).

That'd be 14 schools. Would you add FSU and Miami for 16?

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Miami-FL, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky
Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke, NC State

(04-05-2021 11:47 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 10:00 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Close. Drop Maryland. Add most of the SEC East (TN, UGAg, UF, USC-e, UK, Auburn).

That'd be 14 schools. Would you add FSU and Miami for 16?

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Miami-FL, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky
Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke, NC State

Would that conference command SEC money?

(04-05-2021 12:00 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 11:47 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 10:00 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Close. Drop Maryland. Add most of the SEC East (TN, UGAg, UF, USC-e, UK, Auburn).

That'd be 14 schools. Would you add FSU and Miami for 16?

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Miami-FL, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky
Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke, NC State

Would that conference command SEC money?

Um, well if you gave the ACC big SEC brands like Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia, sure.

But that's about as likely as me convincing Monica Belluci, Gal Gadot, Kate Upton and Giselle Bundchen to all spend the night with me this year.

(04-05-2021 09:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 08:07 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(04-04-2021 01:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-04-2021 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  And for what reason do Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Georgia Tech want to align themselves with Texas, OU, and the 8 dwarfs? The Big 12 is a downgrade in almost every way from the ACC.

The only way it will happen is if the ACC is a downgrade in the most important way - money. And the point of the article is that could possibly happen.

Not likely, IMO, but it is possible. And then? Clemson and FSU are 1000% committed to remaining benchmark level with the best football schools in the SEC, B1G and Big 12. They will do anything to maintain that.

What I would find interesting is, what if FSU and Clemson join the Big 12? Because what you'd have left is probably still a power conference. The ACC isn't the Big 12, where we know that if they lose their top two football programs they are sunk as a P-league. But that ACC would be severely wounded nonetheless.

IMO, if the ACC starts to fall hopelessly behind even the Big 12 in revenue, the one card they have is to get Notre Dame to join for football. Beg, borrow or steal, LOL, but make that happen. Even if it means a sweetheart deal.

A "sweetheart deal" is irrelevant if the other side is not interested in joining at all.

Sure. But this is all likely to happen in 2023-2024 when new TV deals are being negotiated for some of the P5 and most importantly for ND, the new CFP deal is up for renewal.

ND has said that the one thing that could make it abandon independence is a playoff structure that makes it very unlikely that any independent could make the field. A new playoff structure for 2025 and onward that significantly raises ND barriers to entry could change the ND calculus. So there is that uncertainty out there.

Unless a P4 champs only model is mandated, that uncertainty is relatively minor.

If the playoffs stay the same, ND is happy to remain indy.

If the playoffs expand to 8, ND will be happy to remain indy.

(04-05-2021 08:26 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The time for the Big 12 to raid the ACC was before they signed a giant GOR and back when everyone’s model was fixated on markets.

Back then, the Big 12 could have brought in 6 football centric ACC schools. I tend to think the best choices would have been Florida St, Miami, Clemson, GT, NC St, and VT.

UNC and UVA would have been willing to let this happen because they’d likely end up in the SEC, as the SEC desperately wanted in those states.

That leaves the question of what to do with BC, Cuse, Pitt, Maryland, Duke, and WF. The easiest answer is they merge with the Big East’s WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers, and USF. If Maryland and Rutgers end up joining the Big Ten, you fill in with UCF and Temple(?).

North: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Temple, WVU
South: Cincinnati, Louisville, Duke, WF, USF, UCF

Or some zipper formation if that’s your fancy—that way everyone gets to play in Florida.

It’s too late now to orchestrate a raid like this because I don’t think there’s any value in it for the SEC to take UVA or UNC—so they don’t release their instate rivals to join the Big 12.

With regards to UVA and UNC...

Keeping the ACC viable and thriving is the first priority. That currently means that football is the priority. The Hoos and Heels need to improve in football, as well as help the traditional football powers (Clemson, FSU, etc.). Given all the interconnections between the Tobacco Road schools, it’s hard to see UVA or UNC being early movers in realignment.

If ACC members need to dissolve the conference, the priorities of UVA and UNC may not be linked. UVA would likely try to follow Maryland (and align with the BIG); while UNC would likely prefer being aligned with Duke and then likely has a stronger pull towards the SEC.

The ACC has a GOR agreement through 2036-37. No members would be available to join the B12 until 2037-38. The more immediate question is whether the ACC would have any interest in B12 members when their GOR expires in 2035 or 2036.

(04-05-2021 01:41 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The ACC has a GOR agreement through 2036-37. No members would be available to join the B12 until 2037-38. The more immediate question is whether the ACC would have any interest in B12 members when their GOR expires in 2035 or 2036.

I don't think the last few years of a GoR is a real obstacle.

And keep in mind the implications behind GoR ... Grant ... of ... Rights. To whom? That'd be Disney. So if Disney wants to shuffle its deck of in-house assets there's ***ZERO*** barrier.

(04-05-2021 01:41 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The ACC has a GOR agreement through 2036-37. No members would be available to join the B12 until 2037-38. The more immediate question is whether the ACC would have any interest in B12 members when their GOR expires in 2035 or 2036.

The only Big 12 member that might be interested in going to the ACC is WV and they'd be taking a pay cut for the next 15 years to do it.

GOR's can be broken although I believe it's only occurred in the music industry so far and that took years to resolve.

I don't see Clemson being interested in leaving their Carolina controlled conference for a Texas controlled one. And I don't see the Big 12 being interested in any northeast programs. I could see the Big 12 making a play for FSU, Miami & Louisville. Add in UCF or Cincinnati to round it out, with the other getting picked up by the ACC.

Big 14 East - FSU, Miami, Louisville, UCF, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas
Big 14 West - Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor

Sign a 5-10 year deal and see if the new membership & payouts generate any interest from Nebraska or TAMU to return and go to a schedule friendly pod system.

ACC South - GT, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Duke, WF
ACC North - Virginia, VT, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Cincinnati
ND maintains their FB scheduling deal with the ACC

(04-05-2021 01:41 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The ACC has a GOR agreement through 2036-37. No members would be available to join the B12 until 2037-38. The more immediate question is whether the ACC would have any interest in B12 members when their GOR expires in 2035 or 2036.

What if Syracuse got a B1G invite next year and decided it wanted to go?

My bet is the GOR would not stop that. It would result in a negotiated settlement between the ACC and Syracuse, perhaps a very hefty one. But it would not actually stop Syracuse from leaving for the B1G and it would not result in the ACC owning the media to Syracuse home football games while in the B1G.

But I'm not a lawyer, LOL.

(04-05-2021 12:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 12:00 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 11:47 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 10:00 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-05-2021 09:32 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Optimal ACC:
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Close. Drop Maryland. Add most of the SEC East (TN, UGAg, UF, USC-e, UK, Auburn).

That'd be 14 schools. Would you add FSU and Miami for 16?

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Miami-FL, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky
Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke, NC State

Would that conference command SEC money?

Um, well if you gave the ACC big SEC brands like Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia, sure.

But that's about as likely as me convincing Monica Belluci, Gal Gadot, Kate Upton and Giselle Bundchen to all spend the night with me this year.

Ha, and on the same night if you take them all at once. If you aren't 18-24 that's a waste! Maybe this is why most conferences have expanded by 2 at a time. More overloads the enjoyment.