From what little I've gathered, it sounds like the health district that Charlottesville falls within is woefully behind compared to the rest of the state.

Virginia ranked 8th best in the country for death as a ratio of population all time, so we've done a pretty good job overall as a state compared to the rest of the country. Not 100% perfect, but it could be much worse.

(02-24-2021 01:06 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I caught a portion of Governor Northam's presentation today. He advised roughly 500,000 known cases in Virginia. That number could be closer to 1,000,000 or 1,500,000. Point he was making is a significant number of Virginians have experienced COVID already and through having it and either recovered or minimal effects they have built up immunities. Then, he mentioned something like 1.3 or perhaps it was 1.7 million Virginians have been vaccinated so far with so many million more projected over the coming weeks/month. With cases going down and vaccinations up along with existing folks who have built up immunity the timing is right to relax some restrictions. Good. I think Gov. Northam has done an excellent job for the state all things considered. Better than most.

Hopefully by late April and early May potential home playoff games at BFS, outdoor events will be "relaxed" to the point we can get our normal 12 to 15 thousand we see for playoff games. Of course folks will still miss due to Christmas shopping they must be doing. :>)

I'd be pretty happy if we get to 50% capacity by spring playoff time.

Probably 25% is more realistic considering the caps would have to be raised by both the state and NCAA/FCS. My gut is the playoff cap won't go up until a significant number of other states also raise their caps. The ADs/FCS/NCAA as a whole would need to support doing this.

Again, just gut feel, but I think the NCAA wants to make things feel "fair" and not allow one state/school to have 75% capacity while another only has 10 or 25% during playoffs. And this seems to be something they are trying to make a uniform decision on across all NCAA playoff sports.

(02-24-2021 01:46 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  South boston va

He lives in the cville area

That's backwards. I've heard really positive things about the Shenandoah Valley's region from folks who have already received their vaccines - some family members who got appointments at the county fairgrounds, were in and out promptly and efficiently and had nothing but great things to say about the staff and process. Shame that 45 mins down the road you have to drive 2 hours to get a shot.

(02-24-2021 03:03 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(02-24-2021 01:06 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I caught a portion of Governor Northam's presentation today. He advised roughly 500,000 known cases in Virginia. That number could be closer to 1,000,000 or 1,500,000. Point he was making is a significant number of Virginians have experienced COVID already and through having it and either recovered or minimal effects they have built up immunities. Then, he mentioned something like 1.3 or perhaps it was 1.7 million Virginians have been vaccinated so far with so many million more projected over the coming weeks/month. With cases going down and vaccinations up along with existing folks who have built up immunity the timing is right to relax some restrictions. Good. I think Gov. Northam has done an excellent job for the state all things considered. Better than most.

Hopefully by late April and early May potential home playoff games at BFS, outdoor events will be "relaxed" to the point we can get our normal 12 to 15 thousand we see for playoff games. Of course folks will still miss due to Christmas shopping they must be doing. :>)

I'd be pretty happy if we get to 50% capacity by spring playoff time.

Probably 25% is more realistic considering the caps would have to be raised by both the state and NCAA/FCS. My gut is the playoff cap won't go up until a significant number of other states also raise their caps. The ADs/FCS/NCAA as a whole would need to support doing this.

Again, just gut feel, but I think the NCAA wants to make things feel "fair" and not allow one state/school to have 75% capacity while another only has 10 or 25% during playoffs. And this seems to be something they are trying to make a uniform decision on across all NCAA playoff sports.

If you look at:
-What schools likely to make playoffs.
-Of those likely to make playoffs, those likely to host.
-Of those likely to make playoffs, likely to host, and likely to be in states with a high capacity allowance.
-Of those likely to make playoffs, likely to host, likely to be in states with a high capacity allowance, AND likely to fill.
Well you come down to 1 school. May as well call it the NDSU rule....

As much weight as the bizon may or may not have in FCS, for the moment the NCAA appears to be making their playoff capacity decisions across all playoff sports, and that has a lot of other voices involved beyond what FCS wants.

NCAA is a democratic/bureaucratic organization, or for that reason alone I think they will be a bit slow in changing the cap limits just announced.

(02-24-2021 03:45 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  As much weight as the bizon may or may not have in FCS, for the moment the NCAA appears to be making their playoff capacity decisions across all playoff sports, and that has a lot of other voices involved beyond what FCS wants.

NCAA is a democratic/bureaucratic organization, or for that reason alone I think they will be a bit slow in changing the cap limits just announced.

You're right. Outside of some huge shift nationally in probably 75% of the states to have 30%+ capacities allowed (with no total # caps either like in VA), all within the next two months, I don't see them bothered to backtrack on any decisions.

We can assume it's a done deal pretty much. FCS will not be driving any of their decisions. It will be the spring sports and a pressure from P5 conferences too. I doubt they will push too hard on it.

When these decisions are made at the NCAA Div I level, its not just a debate between ADs from NDSU, JMU, UNH, etc ...

As an example, it appears there was a LOT of input from other schools like WVU and Texas St on the size of the FCS bracket, which ended up at 16. Cost considerations, etc come into play since the FCS playoffs lose money and get subsidized.

My guess is beyond only 4 seeds, we will also likely see a lot of "regionalization" and they will try to limit playoff team travel to keep costs lower.

This is a good read on that decision:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...s-football

(02-24-2021 02:01 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  

(02-24-2021 01:34 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(02-24-2021 01:06 PM)Wear Purple Wrote:  I caught a portion of Governor Northam's presentation today. He advised roughly 500,000 known cases in Virginia. That number could be closer to 1,000,000 or 1,500,000. Point he was making is a significant number of Virginians have experienced COVID already and through having it and either recovered or minimal effects they have built up immunities. Then, he mentioned something like 1.3 or perhaps it was 1.7 million Virginians have been vaccinated so far with so many million more projected over the coming weeks/month. With cases going down and vaccinations up along with existing folks who have built up immunity the timing is right to relax some restrictions. Good. I think Gov. Northam has done an excellent job for the state all things considered. Better than most.

Hopefully by late April and early May potential home playoff games at BFS, outdoor events will be "relaxed" to the point we can get our normal 12 to 15 thousand we see for playoff games. Of course folks will still miss due to Christmas shopping they must be doing. :>)

Numbers are a bit deceiving because they are not mutually exclusive. The guidance recommends that people who have recovered from the Ro still get vaccinated (which is pretty insane.) Many people are a part of both figures.

As for the rollout, I think there are many that are not satisfied by VA's distribution, particularly the elderly, the ones that are disproportionately effected by COVID. My father for instance should have been in the front of the line for vaccinations given his age and underlying health conditions, but he is now just getting his vaccine, two hours away. Eight hours of driving for two shots.

Nobody could be worse than jersey. My 70 year old aunt just got her vaccination date... september 24th.

Lol. Aren't you the one that's been banging the drum of everyone tests positive if you run the test enough? But now anyone who tests positive shouldn't get a vaccine?? How severe your infection is plays a big part in determining how strong your immunity response is. The vaccine also helps block the 'business end' of the virus, which your natural immunity may not do.

And yes, the response has been okay in some areas and bad in others. It's mindblowing to me as a software developer that we didn't have an advanced enrollment system rolled out 6 months ago where everyone knows their place and is managed by the state. Instead they (granted, this is every state that I've heard of) basically waited until the companies were shipping out the vaccines to start registering people...and even then the system is not great.

Also, in many areas of VA they started by distributing to the big health systems only, so if your PCP was part of Sentara (for instance) you got first dibs, while other (more in need) people were left waiting. It's getting better now, but I know people on both ends of the spectrum. My in-laws got theirs early, while my neighbor's parents weren't part of Sentara so they didn't get theirs for a long time. My dad got a reservation at CVS when they opened reservations at midnight one night, but my mom who tried 5 minutes later missed it. Again, this isn't unique to VA and for some it worked well and others it didn't...but with nearly a year to prepare for the vaccination roll-out...nothing was done.

You bring up a good point, if you were asymptomatic and have a COVID positive test, with no accompanying IgG antibody test, then yes I think it may be wise for you to get the vaccine. However, people who were obviously symptomatic (many of which are older btw) with a covid positive test (or antibody test), guidance should suggest delaying vaccination to other more at risk people. This is common sense for community protection.

North Carolina now allowing 30% capacity for outdoor events and 15% for indoor arenas over 5000 capacity (with proper spacing and health guidelines). In our situation, that would allow for 7463 football and 1275 in basketball. Hopefully Virginia adjusts at the next go-round and removes the cap.

(02-24-2021 05:57 PM)olddawg Wrote:  North Carolina now allowing 30% capacity for outdoor events and 15% for indoor arenas over 5000 capacity (with proper spacing and health guidelines). In our situation, that would allow for 7463 football and 1275 in basketball. Hopefully Virginia adjusts at the next go-round and removes the cap.

that feels like a more common sense approach that I'd agree with!

(02-24-2021 11:36 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  30% but capped? Why would you cap it? What is the science behind capping it?

Why wait until march 1st? Is anything going to change appreciably in 3 days?

Yes.

30% cap is science, and the Rona knows that getting to 31-2% is reckless.

Sheer insanity. We are wrecking peoples livesand kids, over something that has infected fewer than 10% of our people, and 99% of the infected survive. Prove me wrong.

How long do we live in fear? I'm not wearing a face diaper for the next 30 years, and neither should anyone else here.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker...rendscases

Real science taint political. Take a looksey.

(02-25-2021 12:21 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  We are wrecking peoples livesand kids, over something that has infected fewer than 10% of our people, and 99% of the infected survive. Prove me wrong.

What a bizarrely cavalier description of over half a million people dying in the US and over 2.5 million people worldwide.

More Americans have died of COVID than from military war casualties from the Korean war, 1950, to present day combined. American deaths are fast approaching the entire population of Wyoming.

Your "prove me wrong" attitude is completely misplaced. The math is right. And 518 thousand Americans (and counting) have died as a result. Show a little respect your fallen countrymen and women.

(02-25-2021 12:21 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  30% cap is science, and the Rona knows that getting to 31-2% is reckless.

I suggest you do some light reading on the Sorites paradox and the attempt to remedy it by setting a fixed boundary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox

I know you're being glib, but the quandary you describe has been around for 2400 years.

I have known Dunk for over 20 years and I can promise you he cares about the people who have passed by this virus. The number of deaths that have occurred have done so under lockdowns so you can’t attribute them to what Dunk is suggesting. The question all of us should be asking is do lockdowns lessen the number of deaths permanently or just delay them? Maybe they were the best course in the beginning but not now?

There is data available today that wasn’t available one year ago. The health science often changes over time as we learn what we once believed isn’t accurate even though it was supported with science at the time. For example, in the ‘60s we were told saturated fats were the culprit for heart diseases. In the ‘80s lowering cholesterol was all the rage. Don’t eat eggs for goodness sakes. Today we have evolved to learn that neither of these are necessarily true. The culprit of insulin resistance is ultra processed carbohydrates. Keto and Paleo diets are helping people lose weight and get healthy. Natural foods some high in saturated fat and cholesterol are actually better for you than the low fat, low calorie replacement foods sold to us to help not gain weight.

You can’t believe everything you read on the internet or hear in the news. Digging your heels in on a subject and not staying open to new data as it emerges is just as ignorant as not educating ourselves at all.

The data clearly shows that Coronavirus has overwhelmingly been tough on the over 80 population. People with underlying health issues whose health status was already fragile. Of the population below 80, the majority of those deaths were people who were insulin resistant. The amount of obesity in the US is a far worse pandemic than Corona virus. The outrage we feel as Americans should be directed toward our big corporate food manufacturers who sweeten every processed food to the point where we all have become addicted to its taste rather focus on its nutritional value. This is why losing weight is so hard.

Compare the death and hospitalization data of Florida and California. Cali has the toughest social distancing rules and Florida the most relaxed. Compare Sweden and Scotland. In both of these cases, the data suggests that lockdowns might flatten the curve in the short term but over the long term they actually have little impact on deaths. Go look at the work of Ivor Cummings of Dublin Ireland on this subject. He is a biochemist not a politician.

The world locked down because China did it first with success. There wasn’t a years worth of data at that time. Just a single observation point. The world followed China and locked down.

Any medical doctor will tell you that viruses don’t go away. They mutate. The immunizations occurring now are basically a flu shot. My own 85 year old mother was inoculated with her first shot and three days later became symptomatic. The shot didn’t give her Covid-19. It may have saved her life by lessening the severity of the virus. It also didn’t prevent Covid-19. Sounds a lot like a flu shot type of thing to me. My Stepmother, brother and niece all were symptomatic with Covid-19. None of them hospitalized but all experienced a bad virus.

As Virginia opens back up, cases will rise again but hopefully not too badly. With immunizations, antibodies present in those who have had it and warmer weather, things look favorable. My educated guess is next holiday season we will see another spike but let’s hope a much smaller one.

What I do see in the CDC data is very little impact from this disease in those under 50. The number is 20,000 deaths involving COVID-19. Key word is “involving” meaning it wasn’t the only factor. It is almost nonexistent under 30. Common sense tells me this is the population that should be allowed to freely move about and pass the virus amongst each other. This isn’t a reckless abandonment of consideration for our Seniors. It is done to protect them by building up the herd immunity in addition to immunizations. Lockdowns haven’t saved lives because the disease has found its way into nursing homes and retirement communities any way thus killing the population susceptible to it. Lockdowns haven’t protected them they simply have flattened the curve and spread out the cases over a longer period of time allowing our health professionals time to figure out what this virus does and who is most vulnerable. With this knowledge, leaders are better prepared to make educated decisions if they don’t dig their heels in or try to save face because maybe what the science originally said wasn’t 100% correct just like the science on cholesterol in eggs and saturated animal fats.

(02-24-2021 03:23 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  

(02-24-2021 01:46 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  South boston va

He lives in the cville area

That's backwards. I've heard really positive things about the Shenandoah Valley's region from folks who have already received their vaccines - some family members who got appointments at the county fairgrounds, were in and out promptly and efficiently and had nothing but great things to say about the staff and process. Shame that 45 mins down the road you have to drive 2 hours to get a shot.

My parents got their shots at the Fairgrounds and were in and out in 15 min. Pretty quick and easy to get the appointment too. Should be getting the second round in another week.

(02-25-2021 03:11 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 12:21 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  We are wrecking peoples livesand kids, over something that has infected fewer than 10% of our people, and 99% of the infected survive. Prove me wrong.

What a bizarrely cavalier description of over half a million people dying in the US and over 2.5 million people worldwide.

More Americans have died of COVID than from military war casualties from the Korean war, 1950, to present day combined. American deaths are fast approaching the entire population of Wyoming.

Your "prove me wrong" attitude is completely misplaced. The math is right. And 518 thousand Americans (and counting) have died as a result. Show a little respect your fallen countrymen and women.

More than twice as many Americans die every year than in all American war deaths throughout the entire nations’s history. American deaths are fast approaching 16 one hundreths of 1% of the population..

(02-25-2021 10:07 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  Any medical doctor will tell you that viruses don’t go away.

Smallpox and rinderpest were fully eradicated. Polio, measles, mumps and rubella all could be fully eradicated with ongoing efforts.

So yes, they can and do go away if we use the power we have as a society to make it so.

(02-25-2021 10:24 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 03:11 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 12:21 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  We are wrecking peoples livesand kids, over something that has infected fewer than 10% of our people, and 99% of the infected survive. Prove me wrong.

What a bizarrely cavalier description of over half a million people dying in the US and over 2.5 million people worldwide.

More Americans have died of COVID than from military war casualties from the Korean war, 1950, to present day combined. American deaths are fast approaching the entire population of Wyoming.

Your "prove me wrong" attitude is completely misplaced. The math is right. And 518 thousand Americans (and counting) have died as a result. Show a little respect your fallen countrymen and women.

More than twice as many Americans die every year than in all American war deaths throughout the entire nations’s history. American deaths are fast approaching 16 one hundreths of 1% of the population..

More than twice as many Americans live every year than die. More Americans quote unrelated stats in an attempt to obfuscate the point at hand than armadillo girdled lizards.

(02-25-2021 12:21 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-24-2021 11:36 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  30% but capped? Why would you cap it? What is the science behind capping it?

Why wait until march 1st? Is anything going to change appreciably in 3 days?

Yes.

30% cap is science, and the Rona knows that getting to 31-2% is reckless.

Sheer insanity. We are wrecking peoples livesand kids, over something that has infected fewer than 10% of our people, and 99% of the infected survive. Prove me wrong.

How long do we live in fear? I'm not wearing a face diaper for the next 30 years, and neither should anyone else here.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker...rendscases

Real science taint political. Take a looksey.

Closer to 98% just based on that data but both the number infected and the number of deaths are likely significantly undercounted. Wait until the excess deaths for 2020 are released, it was the deadliest year in a century. Plus about 10% or so that do survive are "longhaulers". There's good reason to be cautious. "Living in fear" is propaganda.

(02-25-2021 10:25 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(02-25-2021 10:07 AM)JMUNation Wrote:  Any medical doctor will tell you that viruses don’t go away.

Smallpox and rinderpest were fully eradicated. Polio, measles, mumps and rubella all could be fully eradicated with ongoing efforts.

So yes, they can and do go away if we use the power we have as a society to make it so.

You obviously just like to argue if you want to compare smallpox to Covid.

Very, very different viruses. There is no history of a coronavirus being eradicated and every piece of information out there has stated that covid 19 will become an endemic disease that we will have to deal with. As the years go by its threat will become smaller and smaller as people build all different types of immunity (b cell, t cell) to it.