(01-22-2021 02:03 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 01:31 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 12:22 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-21-2021 06:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  He isn't playing too many guys; that's complete nonsense. We have 8 players playing 18.6 minutes or more per game. Dandridge is playing 13 minutes and Jayden playing 12 minutes and both deserve to play. He can't shorten the bench because our players are wildly inconsistent from game to game.

He's really not. I did the analysis that showed this a few weeks back. It's the sub-patterns that are head-scratchers and sometimes frustrating.

But I thought this was much better last night. Yes, there were some early subs. A lot of that was due to the turnovers and poor shooting early - which is what everyone has been screaming for him to do.

He might have sat Cisse a little too long in the second half, when he was hot. It was simply to give him a break. But Malcolm was off (maybe a result from the Tulsa game), and the small lineup didn't work without A-lo.

But I saw progress on rotation last night.

Your analysis was severely flawed though. You just looked at MPG for the entire year and compared that to Houston and stated both teams had 10 or 11 guys playing 10+mpg. But when you started looking at the trend of what was happening. Houston had clearly trimmed minutes significantly right around the start of conference play and was basically at just 8 players with 10+ mpg and Penny was not significantly trimming minutes and still had 10 players over 10+ minutes.

Where is the trend?

Houston last game played 11 guys (not counting 2 more in mop-up duty), with 9 players over 10+ minutes.
Houston last weekend played 11 guys, with 8 getting over 10+ minutes.
And these games were without Caleb Mills - who would have been almost certain to get 10+ minutes.

The same time frame...Memphis last night played 11 guys, with 8 players over 10+ minutes.
Memphis last weekend played 10 guys, with 8 getting over 10+ minutes.

Yet the contention is Sampson is shortening the rotation, while Penny is not? And the contention is Penny plays too many guys?

The analysis was fine. It just didn't fit the narrative, so you came up with a theory that is not playing out true.

I have said all along. It's not playing too many guys and trying to "be buddies" - which is your narrative. It is the herky-jerky sub pattern that can be frustrating. Last night, 2nd half this settled down. Maybe a good sign.

Originally YOU CHOSE the metric of 10+ minutes per game... So now you are shifting the narrative to fit you desired outcome by stating total number of players played. Yes, most teams are going to play 10 or 11 guys total but 2 or 3 of those guys are only going to get a handful of minutes (sans blowouts).

Most conference games Memphis (most recent first)
- 11 total with 9 over 10 minutes - 20 point win
- 10 total with 9 over 10 minutes (note Baugh DNP) - 1 point loss
- 11 total with 10 over 10 minutes - 1 point win
- 10 total with 8 over 10 mintues (note Alo and Dandridge DNP) - 7 point loss
- 10 total with 10 over 10 minutes - 6 point win

Houston' most recent 6 conference games
- 13 played with 10 over 10 minutes - 27 point win
- 11 played with 8 over 10 minutes - 17 point win
- 11 played with 9 over 10 minutes - 21 point win
- 9 played with 6 over 10 minutes - 7 point win
- 9 played with 8 over 10 minutes - 14 point win
- 11 played with 8 over 10 minutes - 1 point loss

We are 9 to 10 every game at 10+ minutes. When Houston is not winning by 20+ they are never have more than 8 at 10+ minutes.

8 players with significant minutes is just kind of the standard most teams play by in normal (non blowout) games. Penny has not followed that model for whatever reason and many of us (me included) think that prevents players from getting into a rhythm which leads to poor offense often.

Houston is not a good Comparison...I think Sampson sees a clear delineation between his best 6 guys and the rest of the team.

There really isn't a line between many of our guys
Baugh, Boogie, Junior or Alo
Malcolm or Cisse
(Depends on the night)

DJ seems like he is going to give you defense and rebounding most nights but offensively...Who knows.

Nolley isn't a great rebounder or defender but he can be a very solid scorer.

Q is a solid defender and an average offensive player...Glue Guy. Cant count on him for points but he will do everything else.

Deandre should get his minutes...Seems solid and fairly consistent.

So Penny can count on Q and Deandre(When not in foul trouble)...The remainder it depends on the night. Tough to hold a coach accountable for playing too many guys when the many of the guys have not separated themselves.

I do fault Penny for not focusing on who is on the court though...Sometimes he puts some really really bad combinations out there.

I get what you all are saying and it makes sense. It is just a philosophical difference we have. I am of the opinion that part of the struggles our players have is the idea that Penny is searching every night for who is hot. I think that leads to what we have seen in someone like Boogie. He feels like he has to come in and put up shots to prove he is the guy that night. But if he misses early then starts looking completely lost on the court. He cannot decide if should let the game come to him or if he is supposed to force the issue and then we end up with that terrible in between.

I just think that trimming to 8 consistent players is a better philosophy. Obviously, you still have 10 to 11 that see minutes, but 2 or 3 of the guys are just getting very limited minutes. The 8 main players then know they are getting the lions share (pun intended) of minutes and that leads to both more confidence and in being able to play more relaxed. I realize that means we have a guard or two who transfers out after the season in my scenario but that is happening in all likelihood no matter what, that just appears to be the new normal for all programs.

(01-22-2021 03:44 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  I get what you all are saying and it makes sense. It is just a philosophical difference we have. I am of the opinion that part of the struggles our players have is the idea that Penny is searching every night for who is hot. I think that leads to what we have seen in someone like Boogie. He feels like he has to come in and put up shots to prove he is the guy that night. But if he misses early then starts looking completely lost on the court. He cannot decide if should let the game come to him or if he is supposed to force the issue and then we end up with that terrible in between.

I just think that trimming to 8 consistent players is a better philosophy. Obviously, you still have 10 to 11 that see minutes, but 2 or 3 of the guys are just getting very limited minutes. The 8 main players then know they are getting the lions share (pun intended) of minutes and that leads to both more confidence and in being able to play more relaxed. I realize that means we have a guard or two who transfers out after the season in my scenario but that is happening in all likelihood no matter what, that just appears to be the new normal for all programs.

Yeah...

It is tough when many fall into the same ability level...You would like to stick to 8.

But there are some lineups that we cannot put out there

These are some of the head scratching combinations last night
'BAUGH,DAMION', 'CISSE,MOUSSA', 'HARDAWAY,JAYDEN', 'LOMAX,ALEX', 'NOLLEY II,LANDERS'

'DANDRIDGE,MALCOLM', 'ELLIS,BOOGIE', 'HARDAWAY,JAYDEN', 'LOMAX,ALEX', 'QUINONES,LESTER'

'BAUGH,DAMION', 'DANDRIDGE,MALCOLM', 'ELLIS,BOOGIE', 'JEFFRIES,D.J.', 'LOMAX,ALEX'

2 of DJ, Q, Nolley or Deandre should always be out there.

But our best performing lineup did play the most possessions...That is not always the case.

(01-22-2021 01:42 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 01:31 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 12:56 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 12:22 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-21-2021 06:07 PM)Stammers Wrote:  He isn't playing too many guys; that's complete nonsense. We have 8 players playing 18.6 minutes or more per game. Dandridge is playing 13 minutes and Jayden playing 12 minutes and both deserve to play. He can't shorten the bench because our players are wildly inconsistent from game to game.

He's really not. I did the analysis that showed this a few weeks back. It's the sub-patterns that are head-scratchers and sometimes frustrating.

But I thought this was much better last night. Yes, there were some early subs. A lot of that was due to the turnovers and poor shooting early - which is what everyone has been screaming for him to do.

He might have sat Cisse a little too long in the second half, when he was hot. It was simply to give him a break. But Malcolm was off (maybe a result from the Tulsa game), and the small lineup didn't work without A-lo.

But I saw progress on rotation last night.

Your analysis was severely flawed though. You just looked at MPG for the entire year and compared that to Houston and stated both teams had 10 or 11 guys playing 10+mpg. But when you started looking at the trend of what was happening. Houston had clearly trimmed minutes significantly right around the start of conference play and was basically at just 8 players with 10+ mpg and Penny was not significantly trimming minutes and still had 10 players over 10+ minutes.

Where is the trend?

Houston last game played 11 guys (not counting 2 more in mop-up duty), with 9 players over 10+ minutes. (Houston won by 27)
Houston last weekend played 11 guys, with 8 getting over 10+ minutes.
And these games were without Caleb Mills - who would have been almost certain to get 10+ minutes. (Houston won by 27)

The same time frame...Memphis last night played 11 guys, with 8 players over 10+ minutes.
Memphis last weekend played 10 guys, with 8 getting over 10+ minutes.

Yet the contention is Sampson is shortening the rotation, while Penny is not? And the contention is Penny plays too many guys?

The analysis was fine. It just didn't fit the narrative, so you came up with a theory that is not playing out true.

I have said all along. It's not playing too many guys and trying to "be buddies" - which is your narrative. It is the herky-jerky sub pattern that can be frustrating. Last night, 2nd half this settled down. Maybe a good sign.

I don't think anyone would have an issue with Penny playing 11 guys or 9 guys over ten minutes if we win by 27 points.

The game Houston Lost or played close his rotation is shorter.

Tulsa Loss
They played 6 guys more than 11 minutes. Top 6 guys played 170 minutes the rest played 30.

7 Point win over State
6 guys played over 10 minutes...Top 6 played 180 minutes

9 point win over UCF 7 guys played over 10 minutes...Top 6 played 163 Minutes

Penny almost always tightens his rotation in the 2nd half...But it is almost like he feels obligated to get guys minutes in the 1st half.

But it is also easier for Sampson...Because the dropoff from his first 6 to the rest of his squad is clear...Penny doesn't have it as easy...He has to determine who is giving him what on a given day.

If the choice was D. Rose or ALo I don't think ALo is getting 20 minutes. But the choice is ALo, Boogie or Baugh.

Everybody talks, but provides no data to support their position on Penny. I am trying to present data. And all I get are "yeah, but".

In our last few games, we've played Tulsa twice in nail-biters both times.

1st game, Penny played 10 guys, with only 8 getting >10 minutes. (Which is the mix everyone is asking for, but claiming Penny doesn't do.)
"Yeah, but A-lo and Malcolm weren't available." Well, this year it's not unusual to have at least 1 guy unavailable - so this isn't much different from any other "great coach's rotation." And if they were available, they likely steal time from Jayden's 18 minutes and Rand's 8 minutes. The rotation likely doesn't change very much elsewhere.

2nd game, Penny played 10 guys, with only 8 getting >10 minutes. "Yeah, but Damion wasn't available." See above.

I've presented data showing that at the end of the day, Penny's overall minutes distribution is not much out of line with the norm. Many of you keep saying it is. Show the data. Not just one game, but a good sample size. He's not playing everybody to be buddies, like one poster keeps claiming.

I agree with what you and others are saying that he has a need/obligation to play guys to figure out who is working tonight, and he has a bunch of guys with similar abilities. And the frequent, random subs in the first half are frustrating. But I think he is settling down in this area - especially in the 2nd half. And now with Lance gone, that's one less option to tryout.

(01-22-2021 03:44 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  I get what you all are saying and it makes sense. It is just a philosophical difference we have. I am of the opinion that part of the struggles our players have is the idea that Penny is searching every night for who is hot. I think that leads to what we have seen in someone like Boogie. He feels like he has to come in and put up shots to prove he is the guy that night. But if he misses early then starts looking completely lost on the court. He cannot decide if should let the game come to him or if he is supposed to force the issue and then we end up with that terrible in between.

I just think that trimming to 8 consistent players is a better philosophy. Obviously, you still have 10 to 11 that see minutes, but 2 or 3 of the guys are just getting very limited minutes. The 8 main players then know they are getting the lions share (pun intended) of minutes and that leads to both more confidence and in being able to play more relaxed. I realize that means we have a guard or two who transfers out after the season in my scenario but that is happening in all likelihood no matter what, that just appears to be the new normal for all programs.

So, who are your ride-or-die 8 from this team?

(01-22-2021 04:23 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 03:44 PM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  I get what you all are saying and it makes sense. It is just a philosophical difference we have. I am of the opinion that part of the struggles our players have is the idea that Penny is searching every night for who is hot. I think that leads to what we have seen in someone like Boogie. He feels like he has to come in and put up shots to prove he is the guy that night. But if he misses early then starts looking completely lost on the court. He cannot decide if should let the game come to him or if he is supposed to force the issue and then we end up with that terrible in between.

I just think that trimming to 8 consistent players is a better philosophy. Obviously, you still have 10 to 11 that see minutes, but 2 or 3 of the guys are just getting very limited minutes. The 8 main players then know they are getting the lions share (pun intended) of minutes and that leads to both more confidence and in being able to play more relaxed. I realize that means we have a guard or two who transfers out after the season in my scenario but that is happening in all likelihood no matter what, that just appears to be the new normal for all programs.

So, who are your ride-or-die 8 from this team?

It is 3 or die. Nolley, Williams and LQ. The other 7 are a coin flip.

Memphis - Houston minutes YTD
28 - 33
26 - 32
26 - 28
26 - 27
22 - 21
22 - 20
19 - 19
19 - 12
13 - 12
13 - 11

There's just not much disparity. Houston has Grimes & Sasser that Sampson is riding harder than we ride anyone. And we are giving our #8 guy - Baugh - more than Sampson does. Otherwise, not much different. "Yeah, but..."

(01-22-2021 04:30 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Memphis - Houston minutes YTD
28 - 33
26 - 32
26 - 28
26 - 27
22 - 21
22 - 20
19 - 19
19 - 12
13 - 12
13 - 11

There's just not much disparity. Houston has Grimes & Sasser that Sampson is riding harder than we ride anyone. And we are giving our #8 guy - Baugh - more than Sampson does. Otherwise, not much different. "Yeah, but..."

That data is flawed...It might paint the picture you like but it is far from a true picture.

When Houston wins every game by 10+ points their minutes distribution really isn't comparable. Sampson has the luxury to play whoever the hell he wants most nights.

Houston close games...I am not the only one who posted this information yet you keep coming back to comparing us to Houston.

Tulsa Loss
They played 6 guys more than 11 minutes. Top 6 guys played 170 minutes the rest played 30.

7 Point win over State
6 guys played over 10 minutes...Top 6 played 180 minutes

9 point win over UCF 7 guys played over 10 minutes...Top 6 played 163 Minutes

Yes you are showing correlation...But you are taking the time to figure out causation.

(01-22-2021 04:30 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Memphis - Houston minutes YTD
28 - 33
26 - 32
26 - 28
26 - 27
22 - 21
22 - 20
19 - 19
19 - 12
13 - 12
13 - 11

There's just not much disparity. Houston has Grimes & Sasser that Sampson is riding harder than we ride anyone. And we are giving our #8 guy - Baugh - more than Sampson does. Otherwise, not much different. "Yeah, but..."

There is not "yeah, but" you just keep posting YTD and that is a very flawed metric for reasons that have been pointed out in detail multiple times...

Let me put is like this. We both really enjoy cycling. Over a 4 month period you ride.
May - 500 miles
June - 300 miles
July - 100 miles
August - 0 miles

In turn I ride
May - 0 miles
June - 100 miles
July - 300 miles
August 500 miles

What you are stating is that we are in the same level of fitness because YTD we have both rode 900 miles and averaged 225/month. I am stating that is absolutely not the case because your mileage is trending down and mine is trending up. So, you can point out YTD all day long but I am looking at where the trend is taking us.

It does not really matter though. I think we need 8 guys that get consistent minutes. Stammers and a few others do not agree with that because we do have consistent guard play so they believe we need to play more guys to find who is on that night. It makes sense, I just believe in a different philosophy. That is what makes coaching and message board talk interesting.

For my 8 though, since you asked in another post...
- DJ
- Nolley
- Lester
- Williams
The first four are easy IMO. After that my next four would be (no particular order here)
- Alo - the most consistent passer at guard
- Cisse - Raw but he can defend, rebound and has a ton of upside
- Boogie - I really think a massive part of his problems would be solved with him having a defined and consistent role without feeling like he has to force shots and score to stay on the court. Basically, if he could let the game come to him instead of forcing the issue
Baugh - He can defend. He has more upside than Jayden IMO.

Those left out
Lance - transferring so that is easy
Jayden - He has definitely improved but has the lowest ceiling of all of our guards. Although he seems to know and accept his role better than any other guard.
Dandridge - He would be in that group of 8 if he could stay healthy. I am just not sure if he will ever be able to play 20 minutes a game consistently because of his knees. But in games he can play then I would probably sub his minutes for Baugh's.

So Jayden and Dandridge out. I guess it's an easy call for a message board coach.

I just don't think it's that easy if you're working with these guys every day in practice, and not seeing consistent true separation.

(01-22-2021 05:57 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  So Jayden and Dandridge out. I guess it's an easy call for a message board coach.

I just don't think it's that easy if you're working with these guys every day in practice, and not seeing consistent true separation.

Agreed...

No way you draw a line in the sand when players are so similar.

There was a time if someone lost their spot in the rotation they would compete and try harder in practice to get back into the rotation. Now they will just transfer.

(01-22-2021 06:03 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  There was a time if someone lost their spot in the rotation they would compete and try harder in practice to get back into the rotation. Now they will just transfer.

Answer Honestly...Do you think if Penny was out of scholarships and he had a 5* kid that wanted come here that he wouldn't pull Lance's scholarship at the end of this year and give it to the 5*?

(01-22-2021 06:06 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 06:03 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  There was a time if someone lost their spot in the rotation they would compete and try harder in practice to get back into the rotation. Now they will just transfer.

Answer Honestly...Do you think if Penny was out of scholarships and he had a 5* kid that wanted come here that he wouldn't pull Lance's scholarship at the end of this year and give it to the 5*?

yes he would. not really what I was saying in my post, but yes, that is the way of college basketball. I personally disagree with it, but not so much that it really matters to me.

I have no issue with kids transferring, but my point is, for those who dont want to compete it is easier for them to just move on instead of improve. That is not a good thing.

Just saw Jordan was in his 5th year of high school...So that would make sense with his ability to graduate early.

(01-22-2021 05:57 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  So Jayden and Dandridge out. I guess it's an easy call for a message board coach.

I just don't think it's that easy if you're working with these guys every day in practice, and not seeing consistent true separation.

Out does not mean literally 0 playing time. It just means limited minutes.

The only Dandridge would not be a consistent rotation player is because he is not physically able to consistently play 15 to 20 minutes game after game. But there would certainly be games where he could eat up 15 minutes in place of Baugh.

Games, matchups, injuries, etc. could influence the 8 players who receive significant minutes in a given game. But you have a core 8 that will most often receive the bulk of minutes.

At this point in the season I don't agree you "have you play" a bunch of guys to see who's hot tonight. They have been showing who they are all season. You play the most consistent & productive 6-7 guys who can most likely give you production with exceptions for foul trouble, injury & in the case of DJ to settle him down or others if they can't play within the offense & defense etc. With that approach you likely wind up playing 7-8 guys the major minutes and others for short situations.

(01-22-2021 01:44 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(01-22-2021 10:26 AM)uskjtc02 Wrote:  DJ just needs to calm down and let the game come to him. He’s trying too hard. Lots of outside pressure.

What kind of outside pressure?

Family and friends in his ear.

Has Nesbit dressed the last 2 games? Clueless ESPN guys haven't even mentioned him, and with the bench distancing situation & masks, it's hard to tell.

(01-24-2021 09:31 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  Has Nesbit dressed the last 2 games? Clueless ESPN guys haven't even mentioned him, and with the bench distancing situation & masks, it's hard to tell.

They said when he came in that he had to quarantine first. I don't think that's over yet.