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Another sad showing by AAC
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-08-2021 10:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:08 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 05:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 08:36 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-06-2021 12:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well, IMO, the results of recent NY6 games involving G5 champs *do not* suggest that the G5 champ automatically belongs in an 8-team playoff. Remember, these games they were competitive in (but still lost) were against teams that finished 3rd or 4th in their conferences, they weren't losing to the champs.

So following that logic the Big 12 & Notre Dame don't belong in an 8 team playoff since they've never won a playoff game. Nor the Pac 12 who's only won once 6 years ago. Using your qualifiers only Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia, Oregon & LSU qualify since they're the only ones who've won a playoff game so far. How thrilling.

That's not really my logic. There's a difference between losing playoff games, where you played an actual playoff-level team, and losing to teams that were not playoff level. The G5 champ has been losing to 3rd and 4th place finishers in P5 conferences.

Also, nobody is saying that Oklahoma and Notre Dame, or any other playoff losers, should get an *autobid* to the current playoffs. The 5/1/2 model would give an autobid to the top G5 team. That's a much higher bar to meet, so the standards for proof that it is needed should be higher.

Recently, the G5 have not come anywhere near meeting even a low bar.

Should the top G5 champ be considered for an 8-team playoff? Absolutely. And in fact, both UCF in 2018 and Cincy in 2020 would have made a straight-8 playoff. But should the G5 champ be automatically in? No.

Pac 12 would meet the same threshold as the AAC then since they made it a couple years (same as AAC NY6 wins) and haven't most years.

The problem is as we've all seen from the committee if there is not an autobid the goal posts will be moved to prevent anyone not in an autonomous conference + ND from getting in.

Well, we actually haven't "seen" that. Some people do believe it though.

The best solution to that problem IMO would be to let computers do the selecting.

As mentioned earlier, Houston had the schedule to do it a few years back, but got tripped up in AAC play.

Computers have their own faults, but bias is not one of them.
01-09-2021 09:03 AM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
Computers can absolutely be biased. They’re just a reflection of the person coding them.
01-09-2021 09:16 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-09-2021 09:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Computers can absolutely be biased. They’re just a reflection of the person coding them.

That's true. So that's why we would rely on a collection of computers, so that the biases of one do not determine everything. Also, one thing about computers is that they tend not to have the biases we are concerned about, namely stigma against G5 or non-blue-blood P5. A given computer might have a bias towards MOV, another a bias towards SOS, etc. But unless someone has added code that says "If TEAM is SEC, then add 10 points to their ranking" or something, we don't have to worry about that kind of thing.

And IMO that is highly unlikely, because just as is the case with baseball stat-nerds, the nerds who come up with computer formulas tend to be more committed to the math and "accurate" modeling than to the politics of the sport. They tend to be statisticians and mathematicians first, who view college football rankings as an intriguing problem to solve, not fans with an ax to grind.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 09:39 AM by quo vadis.)
01-09-2021 09:37 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-09-2021 09:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Computers can absolutely be biased. They’re just a reflection of the person coding them.

Computers can be biased, but not the same way as humans. Humans will have the P5 vs G5 bias, while computers could be coded to be biased toward away wins, home loses, etc. The key to the computer models is humans not changing them when they don't produce the bias the humans would expect. I see that in the RPI to NET conversion in basketball. The "right" teams weren't rated high enough under RPI.
01-09-2021 01:04 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-08-2021 10:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:08 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 05:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 08:36 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-06-2021 12:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well, IMO, the results of recent NY6 games involving G5 champs *do not* suggest that the G5 champ automatically belongs in an 8-team playoff. Remember, these games they were competitive in (but still lost) were against teams that finished 3rd or 4th in their conferences, they weren't losing to the champs.

So following that logic the Big 12 & Notre Dame don't belong in an 8 team playoff since they've never won a playoff game. Nor the Pac 12 who's only won once 6 years ago. Using your qualifiers only Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia, Oregon & LSU qualify since they're the only ones who've won a playoff game so far. How thrilling.

That's not really my logic. There's a difference between losing playoff games, where you played an actual playoff-level team, and losing to teams that were not playoff level. The G5 champ has been losing to 3rd and 4th place finishers in P5 conferences.

Also, nobody is saying that Oklahoma and Notre Dame, or any other playoff losers, should get an *autobid* to the current playoffs. The 5/1/2 model would give an autobid to the top G5 team. That's a much higher bar to meet, so the standards for proof that it is needed should be higher.

Recently, the G5 have not come anywhere near meeting even a low bar.

Should the top G5 champ be considered for an 8-team playoff? Absolutely. And in fact, both UCF in 2018 and Cincy in 2020 would have made a straight-8 playoff. But should the G5 champ be automatically in? No.

Pac 12 would meet the same threshold as the AAC then since they made it a couple years (same as AAC NY6 wins) and haven't most years.

The problem is as we've all seen from the committee if there is not an autobid the goal posts will be moved to prevent anyone not in an autonomous conference + ND from getting in.

Well, we actually haven't "seen" that. Some people do believe it though.

The best solution to that problem IMO would be to let computers do the selecting.

There has been some hard to argue against bias that we've actually seen. Case in point would be...

-Various G5 teams being left out due to their schedules not falling the right way, Ohio State getting in with only 6 games and a lack-luster SOS because it "wasn't their fault".

-Baylor/TCU falling out of the top 4 because they didn't have a conference championship game, then bigger name teams getting in despite sitting out of theirs.

Hard to argue that those don't represent a moving goal post.
01-09-2021 01:08 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...
01-09-2021 01:13 PM
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eltigre Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-09-2021 09:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Computers can absolutely be biased. They’re just a reflection of the person coding them.

Off topic - my daughter and I went on a soccer recruiting visit to USA. Very impressed with the campus and all of the construction going on there.
01-09-2021 01:17 PM
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TripleA Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.
01-10-2021 01:42 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.


I would be fine with some basic criteria that each of the five P5 winners must meet, too.
01-10-2021 02:33 AM
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GeminiCoog Offline
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Post: #90
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
This thread is bull crap. And it looks like everybody took the bait.
01-10-2021 07:09 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #91
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.
01-10-2021 10:43 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #92
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I know you believe Coastal was a better team than Cincinnati, but after watching the Liberty game CCU was not a match head to head with the Bearcats. Liberty ran all over them and UC would have done the same thing. UC had a better defense than Liberty and would have shut them down. I don’t think the game would be particularly close.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2021 10:57 AM by CliftonAve.)
01-10-2021 10:56 AM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #93
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-09-2021 01:17 PM)eltigre Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 09:16 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Computers can absolutely be biased. They’re just a reflection of the person coding them.

Off topic - my daughter and I went on a soccer recruiting visit to USA. Very impressed with the campus and all of the construction going on there.

South Alabama has really taken off since we added football 11 years ago. Our university was founded in the 1960’s, so it’s still relatively young. I’m excited to see where we can go.
01-10-2021 10:00 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #94
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-10-2021 10:56 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I know you believe Coastal was a better team than Cincinnati, but after watching the Liberty game CCU was not a match head to head with the Bearcats. Liberty ran all over them and UC would have done the same thing. UC had a better defense than Liberty and would have shut them down. I don’t think the game would be particularly close.

No, I don't think I've ever said that. I said that Coastal's credentials on paper were as good and arguably better - they played two more games and their two best wins were better than any of Cincy's wins which to me at least equaled Cincy's overall stronger SOS - but IIRC I never said I thought Coastal would beat Cincy if they played.

But IMO, this was an obvious example of a case where before picking one of them as a G5 rep to anything, I would have liked to have seen them play each other. To me, the fact that Cincy was always ranked comfortably ahead of them and was a given for the G5 auto-spot is evidence of committee bias towards better-known programs even among the G5. That bias would also be present if the G5 were being ranked for a playoff spot.
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2021 10:13 AM by quo vadis.)
01-11-2021 10:11 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #95
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-11-2021 10:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:56 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I know you believe Coastal was a better team than Cincinnati, but after watching the Liberty game CCU was not a match head to head with the Bearcats. Liberty ran all over them and UC would have done the same thing. UC had a better defense than Liberty and would have shut them down. I don’t think the game would be particularly close.

No, I don't think I've ever said that. I said that Coastal's credentials on paper were as good and arguably better - they played two more games and their two best wins were better than any of Cincy's wins which to me at least equaled Cincy's overall stronger SOS - but IIRC I never said I thought Coastal would beat Cincy if they played.

But IMO, this was an obvious example of a case where before picking one of them as a G5 rep to anything, I would have liked to have seen them play each other. To me, the fact that Cincy was always ranked comfortably ahead of them and was a given for the G5 auto-spot is evidence of committee bias towards better-known programs even among the G5. That bias would also be present if the G5 were being ranked for a playoff spot.

Or it could have been because Cincinnati returned the core of a team that had won 11 games the two years prior, having kicked the crap out of BC in a bowl game 38-6. That is why UC was ranked higher than CCU to start.
01-11-2021 10:51 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #96
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-11-2021 10:51 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 10:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:56 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I know you believe Coastal was a better team than Cincinnati, but after watching the Liberty game CCU was not a match head to head with the Bearcats. Liberty ran all over them and UC would have done the same thing. UC had a better defense than Liberty and would have shut them down. I don’t think the game would be particularly close.

No, I don't think I've ever said that. I said that Coastal's credentials on paper were as good and arguably better - they played two more games and their two best wins were better than any of Cincy's wins which to me at least equaled Cincy's overall stronger SOS - but IIRC I never said I thought Coastal would beat Cincy if they played.

But IMO, this was an obvious example of a case where before picking one of them as a G5 rep to anything, I would have liked to have seen them play each other. To me, the fact that Cincy was always ranked comfortably ahead of them and was a given for the G5 auto-spot is evidence of committee bias towards better-known programs even among the G5. That bias would also be present if the G5 were being ranked for a playoff spot.

Or it could have been because Cincinnati returned the core of a team that had won 11 games the two years prior, having kicked the crap out of BC in a bowl game 38-6. That is why UC was ranked higher than CCU to start.

Well, I am not sure how much weight anyone would give to beating up a 6-6 BC team that finished 6th in a historically-bad year for the ACC, and in the prior year no less, but even if so, IMO that reinforces my point: What you did last year shouldn't matter at all to this year, and yet we know that reputational growth gained in prior years can influence how a team is viewed this year. That's how the P5 gained their reputational advantage over the G5. That's a kind of bias, exactly what I am talking about.
01-11-2021 11:01 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #97
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-11-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 10:51 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-11-2021 10:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:56 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I know you believe Coastal was a better team than Cincinnati, but after watching the Liberty game CCU was not a match head to head with the Bearcats. Liberty ran all over them and UC would have done the same thing. UC had a better defense than Liberty and would have shut them down. I don’t think the game would be particularly close.

No, I don't think I've ever said that. I said that Coastal's credentials on paper were as good and arguably better - they played two more games and their two best wins were better than any of Cincy's wins which to me at least equaled Cincy's overall stronger SOS - but IIRC I never said I thought Coastal would beat Cincy if they played.

But IMO, this was an obvious example of a case where before picking one of them as a G5 rep to anything, I would have liked to have seen them play each other. To me, the fact that Cincy was always ranked comfortably ahead of them and was a given for the G5 auto-spot is evidence of committee bias towards better-known programs even among the G5. That bias would also be present if the G5 were being ranked for a playoff spot.

Or it could have been because Cincinnati returned the core of a team that had won 11 games the two years prior, having kicked the crap out of BC in a bowl game 38-6. That is why UC was ranked higher than CCU to start.

Well, I am not sure how much weight anyone would give to beating up a 6-6 BC team that finished 6th in a historically-bad year for the ACC, and in the prior year no less, but even if so, IMO that reinforces my point: What you did last year shouldn't matter at all to this year, and yet we know that reputational growth gained in prior years can influence how a team is viewed this year. That's how the P5 gained their reputational advantage over the G5. That's a kind of bias, exactly what I am talking about.

I don’t entirely disagree with you, but I think there is a distant on between voting a team high because they return 90% of an a 11 win team vs voting a 6-6 team high because they are (insert school here who won the NC a couple times back in the 80s).
01-11-2021 11:05 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I absolutely agree with this.

You've mentioned earlier that the biggest beneficiary of the P5+ 1 G5 + 2 option would be the AAC. I agree. There is a huge gap between the perception of Memphis, Houston, UCF, Cincy, Boise, etc and the perception any Sun Belt team. It's probably a bigger gap than the gap between UCF and the competitors for 2nd place in the SEC.
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2021 11:52 AM by Captain Bearcat.)
01-11-2021 11:11 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #99
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-11-2021 11:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I absolutely agree with this.

You've mentioned earlier that the biggest beneficiary of the P5+ 1 G5 + 2 option would be the AAC. I agree. There is a huge gap between the perception of Memphis, Houston, UCF, Cincy, Boise, etc and the perception any Sun Belt team. It's probably a bigger gap than the gap between UCF and the competitors for 2nd place in the SEC.

I still think that the 2 at-large teams benefit just as much as the AAC teams. I'd imagine those at-large spots will develop some regulars over time. They will be teams like Georgia/LSU/Auburn that can never get over the hump against teams like Alabama.

Over time, I'd guess that format would give Georgia as many more playoff appearances as half the AAC teams combined.
01-11-2021 12:08 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #100
RE: Another sad showing by AAC
(01-11-2021 11:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2021 01:42 AM)TripleA Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:13 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Again, I go back to this option with the 5-1-2 model: The G5 team must meet certain criteria to make the playoff. Otherwise, there will no G5 team for that season and three at-large participants instead of two. Simple.

Now, and admittedly, what those criterion would be ...

Why does there have to be criterion only for the G5 entry? Is there criterion for each of the 5 P5 auto bids? Who says all 5 P5 champs would be in the top 8 each year? You could theoretically have a 3 or 4 loss champ.

I think the CFP needs to include the best G5 team to avoid an eventual anti-trust lawsuit, if they don't do it. Right now, at 4 slots, they can hide behind the fact that they don't allow all P5 champs in, either. At 8, they wouldn't have that cover.

Problem with 5/1/2 is that who the "best" G5 team is will be totally subjective, chosen by a committee and thus prone to the same biases that many claim mar the selection of the current CFP teams. Look at this year - on paper, Coastal was at least as impressive as Cincy, but Coastal was always ranked well behind them, because Cincy is a higher profile program. Cincy had the same bias working against Coastal that Ohio State had working against Cincy. That's likely the way the G5 autobid would work - higher profile programs like Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Houston and Boise would have a brand recognition advantage over teams from the MAC, CUSA and Sun Belt.

Also, I think 5/1/2 is more prone to anti-trust than straight 8, because with straight 8, like the CFP and BCS, no conference has an autobid. With 5/1/2, each P5 would but each G5 would not, that's a formal distinction that could cause legal trouble.

I absolutely agree with this.

You've mentioned earlier that the biggest beneficiary of the P5+ 1 G5 + 2 option would be the AAC. There is a huge gap between the perception of Memphis, Houston, UCF, Cincy, Boise, etc and the perception any Sun Belt team. It's probably a bigger gap than the gap between UCF and the competitors for 2nd place in the SEC.

I'm laughing at all of this because Quo won't call it what it is. The bias is market size and viewer base. UCF doesn't compete with 6th place in the SEC when it comes to national draw. Records and how good you may be aren't relevant. Cincinnati's advantage over Coastal Carolina is not in ability, but in market size for an event which is televised for profit.

I get totally bumfuzzled listening to the mental gymnastics of denial on this board. Notre Dame got in over A&M because of national draw. Ohio State got in over Baylor and TCU in the past because of national draw. The CFP is a for profit enterprise to which ESPN holds the rights. The selection committee functions as a thin veil to cover the fact that the 4 participants are only initially considered on record but finally selected for advertising profits.

The AAC is no better than the Sun Belt and was second to them in performance this year among the G5. But the AAC was created for niche media purposes to reach cities within the top 100 demographics where the P5 didn't actually have a school. Memphis, Philadelphia, Houston, Cincinnati, Orlando, Tampa/St. Petersburg, New Orleans, Tulsa, etc. the few that don't fall into that category are schools which have competed well with solid attendance.

Name me the Sun Belt schools located in markets of this size???

So drop the genital measuring from a competitive standpoint and call it what it is, business! Why are the SEC and Big 10 stronger than the Big 12 which is stronger than the ACC or PAC? Viewers!

What has realignment been about? Shaping market reach to maximize profits before technology allowed for accurate viewer counts. Now it's about total viewers which is why realignment is still going on.

It is not, and has not been about, who has better football teams and who has better basketball teams. Only the deluded and imbecilic cling to those notions because they don't want to believe or admit that what they love so dearly isn't about who has the best team. It's about who has the best team that draws the biggest viewership. And as long as corporate America through the networks they own makes a profit by broadcasting the games it will remain this way.

This is why the propaganda is against 4 champs or even 8 champs playing it off. Without selection committees to maximize the national reach by the inclusion of schools that reach the demographics that the frontrunners don't reach the networks would fail to cover expenditures or meet revenue projections.

The NCAA tourney included so many small schools and then seeds them against the goliaths because those kinds of mismatches are appealing to the public and perfect cover for a system that usually only has one true Cinderella in the sweet sixteen and then that school is usually a P5 or solid basketball school with an established brand. The ratings for the tourney are much higher and advertising more profitable from the Sweet 16 through the Final Flour so who gives a flip at the Networks what happens in the first couple of rounds. That's where the gamblers and small school fans get their interest invested.

If you could play a football game every 2 days maybe the CFP would be larger. You can't so it will never be the NCAA tourney. Maybe we go to 8 games but the CCG money isn't split between all conferences so the Big 10 and SEC have no incentive.

Again it's business and its all about money and has nothing to do with fan fantasies and I sincerely doubt the Networks have an interest in losing the safety net of the selection committees as much as all of us hate them. They exist to maximize ad revenue. Never forget that and you won't be so pissed at the wrong people when your small market school doesn't get the recognition it deserves and is passed over not only for the CFP but for the Big Bowls, which are also about money.

As a moderator what pisses me off are the number of angry fans of smaller schools that ignorantly think all P5 fans and people from larger conferences in the G5 are out to get them. We fans have no voice and almost all of us want a fairer system. But it isn't about sports, who is the best, or who had the most outstanding year. It's about profits. If you are pissed aim your frustration at ESPN and FOX. But please quit speculating a myriad of BS reasons it is like it is when there is only truly one answer, profits.
01-11-2021 12:15 PM
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