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The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #141
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:01 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 01:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 12:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  The main point of expansion is to make sure all deserving teams make it. If you determine that by poll, you defeat part of the purpose.

If that's the main point, than it doesn't seem to be much of a point. The CFP, with its many blowouts in the semifinals, has shown that, if anything, there are typically fewer than four deserving teams, there never have been eight.

Plus, "conference champ" is a very poor indicator of deserving. Why should a team get in merely because they beat out 11 or 12 other teams, none of whom may have been any good? That's not merit, that's "affirmative action" for conferences.

If you are worried about "smoke filled rooms" deciding the eight, then just let an aggregation of computers do it.

This is an invalid argument because the NFL team who wins their division gets in even if they are 6-10 and sometimes better teams are wildcard or left out. College easily could have the same system. The ACC isn’t all that great yet Clemson is still a good team. Florida was horribly overrated this season. Georgia almost lost to Cincy. Iowa State lost to Louisiana by 17 at home and still was competing for Big XII championship. If winning your conference doesn’t mean something then there should be 130 independent teams.

I don't think your NFL example invalidates my point at all. If anything, your point invalidates the NFL process, because it seems rather ridiculous that one NFL team can make the playoffs with a 6-10 record while another misses out with a 10-6 record, merely because the former team won a terrible division.

That seems like a really good argument for not having "autobids" based on conferences, divisions, etc.

As far as conferences are concerned, as Nick Saban says, winning the SEC is a major achievement in and of itself, well worthy of receiving a big trophy for the school and hats and t-shirts and championship rings for the players. No matter if it leads to anything else or not.

While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2021 05:22 PM by quo vadis.)
01-08-2021 05:22 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #142
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 12:35 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

I think they will because all of the P5 schools you listed value the payouts more than they do access. If making the playoffs were a priority, P5 schools could drop down to G5 conferences. But we both know that won't happen.

I do not think any P5 school wants to face the choice of having to suffer the money loss of leaving a P5 conference or the pride-loss of seeing a little brother in a G5 (basically the AAC) have and exploit an easier path to the playoffs. Why put yourself in that position?
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2021 05:28 PM by quo vadis.)
01-08-2021 05:25 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #143
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:35 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

I think they will because all of the P5 schools you listed value the payouts more than they do access. If making the playoffs were a priority, P5 schools could drop down to G5 conferences. But we both know that won't happen.

I do not think any P5 school wants to face the choice of having to suffer the money loss of leaving a P5 conference or the pride-loss of seeing a little brother in a G5 (basically the AAC) have and exploit an easier path to the playoffs. Why put yourself in that position?

The hypothetical schools in question (UM, UTX, UTK, FSU, UMIA, UF) are suffering the pride-loss due to their own incompetence. The cashed checks are a sufficient balm for their failures. And the playoff format is ultimately a function of C.R.E.A.M. If the networks pony up the ends, the P5 will accede to whatever format is desired.
01-08-2021 06:59 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #144
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 05:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:01 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 01:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  If that's the main point, than it doesn't seem to be much of a point. The CFP, with its many blowouts in the semifinals, has shown that, if anything, there are typically fewer than four deserving teams, there never have been eight.

Plus, "conference champ" is a very poor indicator of deserving. Why should a team get in merely because they beat out 11 or 12 other teams, none of whom may have been any good? That's not merit, that's "affirmative action" for conferences.

If you are worried about "smoke filled rooms" deciding the eight, then just let an aggregation of computers do it.

This is an invalid argument because the NFL team who wins their division gets in even if they are 6-10 and sometimes better teams are wildcard or left out. College easily could have the same system. The ACC isn’t all that great yet Clemson is still a good team. Florida was horribly overrated this season. Georgia almost lost to Cincy. Iowa State lost to Louisiana by 17 at home and still was competing for Big XII championship. If winning your conference doesn’t mean something then there should be 130 independent teams.

I don't think your NFL example invalidates my point at all. If anything, your point invalidates the NFL process, because it seems rather ridiculous that one NFL team can make the playoffs with a 6-10 record while another misses out with a 10-6 record, merely because the former team won a terrible division.

That seems like a really good argument for not having "autobids" based on conferences, divisions, etc.

As far as conferences are concerned, as Nick Saban says, winning the SEC is a major achievement in and of itself, well worthy of receiving a big trophy for the school and hats and t-shirts and championship rings for the players. No matter if it leads to anything else or not.

While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3

I didn't say they killed the bowl games. I said they killed the interest. We have more bowls than ever because we have more FBS teams than ever.
01-09-2021 01:10 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #145
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

It already does have such a system. Right now---Houston has just as many playoff appearances as Michigan and Tennesee. Frankly, Houston has been to the playoffs just as much as the vast majority of P5 teams---zero times. Heck, Im pretty sure UCF has more CFP NYD bowl appearances than Tennesee or Michigan as well.

Either way, even if Houston did have more playoff appearances than the major teams you mentioned in a 5-1-2---the fault would lie squarely on the coaches of those teams that missed the playoffs. All they had to do is win their conference or claim a wild card---there would be no committee to blame. Lets be honest---all the wild cards in a 5-1-2 will be coming from the P5 ranks. So, after all the gnashing of teeth---almost twice as many P5 schools (like Tennessee, Michigan, Penn St, Texas, etc) would be entering the playoff each year than do under the current system. Is 5-1-2 perfect-----nope. But its the only system that creates a path for every team at the start of the season, while putting full control of the destiny of each team in that teams hands, while also guaranteeing that the #1 and #2 teams in the nation will always be in the playoff (CCG upsets will not block the #1 and #2 team from making the playoff if the Committee deems them the top two teams).
01-09-2021 01:29 PM
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Post: #146
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
The SEC and Big 10 usually have enough depth that those at large berths will likely go to them unless ND is having a good season so the conferences who have depth will still get doubly represented in college football’s biggest tournament.

Money wise, I think the revenue of a 5-1-2 is going to be parceled out proportionate to where it is now—I just think there will be far more of it. Every region is going to have a team in the mix meaning national attention and interest every single year. The value of everyone’s CCG should shoot ups too as it’s a guarantee that 1 of the 2 teams participating will be punching their ticket to the big dance that afternoon/evening. Much like the NFL, the value of the regular season also goes up because more teams are in the post season hunt longer.

If a crummy G5 or lackluster PAC 12 champ slips into the field that’s ok. You’re engaging a part of the country and a fan base that otherwise would have not tuned in. People are going to tune into the 1 vs 8 bowl to root for the underdog. That G5 rep is the best program out of a pool of 59 programs—they had the toughest odds out of anyone in the field
01-09-2021 03:01 PM
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Post: #147
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 03:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 usually have enough depth that those at large berths will likely go to them unless ND is having a good season so the conferences who have depth will still get doubly represented in college football’s biggest tournament.

Money wise, I think the revenue of a 5-1-2 is going to be parceled out proportionate to where it is now—I just think there will be far more of it. Every region is going to have a team in the mix meaning national attention and interest every single year. The value of everyone’s CCG should shoot ups too as it’s a guarantee that 1 of the 2 teams participating will be punching their ticket to the big dance that afternoon/evening. Much like the NFL, the value of the regular season also goes up because more teams are in the post season hunt longer.

If a crummy G5 or lackluster PAC 12 champ slips into the field that’s ok. You’re engaging a part of the country and a fan base that otherwise would have not tuned in. People are going to tune into the 1 vs 8 bowl to root for the underdog. That G5 rep is the best program out of a pool of 59 programs—they had the toughest odds out of anyone in the field

The bolded part is a major reason why they need to expand the playoff to 8. Right now unless you just happen to be a fan of a school involved or a die-hard football fan, there is little reason for anyone west of Louisiana or northeast of Happy Valley, PA to turn on the CFP most years. That's just too many people being alienated.

As for the G5, to me the CFP selection committee was a clown show. At the end of the day I don't disagree with their top 4, but the way Gary Barta and Kirk Herbstreit would spin the facts with the additional rankings just came across as something out of the National Enquirer: "Yes Louisiana beat Iowa State by 17 and the Sun Belt was 3-0 against the Big12, we just were impressed with how Iowa State took care of business at the end of season. They passed the eyeball test against (a mediocre) West Virginia." Even the perception of unfairness turns a lot of people off and judging by the outcry that came after that selection show I think most of America picked up on it.
01-09-2021 04:07 PM
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RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
The ESPN talking heads are masters at completely ignoring facts and spinning manufactured story lines.
01-09-2021 04:19 PM
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Post: #149
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 04:07 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 03:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 usually have enough depth that those at large berths will likely go to them unless ND is having a good season so the conferences who have depth will still get doubly represented in college football’s biggest tournament.

Money wise, I think the revenue of a 5-1-2 is going to be parceled out proportionate to where it is now—I just think there will be far more of it. Every region is going to have a team in the mix meaning national attention and interest every single year. The value of everyone’s CCG should shoot ups too as it’s a guarantee that 1 of the 2 teams participating will be punching their ticket to the big dance that afternoon/evening. Much like the NFL, the value of the regular season also goes up because more teams are in the post season hunt longer.

If a crummy G5 or lackluster PAC 12 champ slips into the field that’s ok. You’re engaging a part of the country and a fan base that otherwise would have not tuned in. People are going to tune into the 1 vs 8 bowl to root for the underdog. That G5 rep is the best program out of a pool of 59 programs—they had the toughest odds out of anyone in the field

The bolded part is a major reason why they need to expand the playoff to 8. Right now unless you just happen to be a fan of a school involved or a die-hard football fan, there is little reason for anyone west of Louisiana or northeast of Happy Valley, PA to turn on the CFP most years. That's just too many people being alienated.

As for the G5, to me the CFP selection committee was a clown show. At the end of the day I don't disagree with their top 4, but the way Gary Barta and Kirk Herbstreit would spin the facts with the additional rankings just came across as something out of the National Enquirer: "Yes Louisiana beat Iowa State by 17 and the Sun Belt was 3-0 against the Big12, we just were impressed with how Iowa State took care of business at the end of season. They passed the eyeball test against (a mediocre) West Virginia." Even the perception of unfairness turns a lot of people off and judging by the outcry that came after that selection show I think most of America picked up on it.

It’s interesting that Paul Finebaum (of all freaking people) made that same argument prior to the CFP selection show: getting the entire nation involved is critical. When Paul Finebaum is arguing for Pac-12 playoff inclusion on ESPN right before the CFP selections are being made, one can only imagine what’s happening in the executive suites where they’re seeing a market like Los Angeles, which actually can draw a huge college football rating, basically getting shuffled off to the side with the whole PAC-12 out of the playoff race with weeks to go in the season. That’s not sustainable for the sport no matter how much the SEC wants to hoover up bids.

Like I’ve said before, you could still argue in the BCS era that simply competing for a BCS bowl outside of the national Championship Game could continue to drive interest from across the country (e.g. the Pac-12 could always count on a Rose Bowl berth at a minimum). However, the CFP has simply made the entire regular season so playoff-focused. I don’t necessarily think that’s a bad thing... but it turns into a bad thing when being playoff-focused means that 110-plus teams truly don’t matter after a 2 or 3 weeks of the season in the current system (and even worse, entire conferences).

I know there’s the argument that college football isn’t the same as the NFL, but the point is that it has become playoff-focused in the CFP era just like the NFL but the CFP is so exclusionary that it kills off interest (AKA TV value) of whole swaths of games for a huge part of the year. We have to move past thinking that the old way of looking at college football interest in even the BCS era has any application today in a world where the whole sport is simply now hyper-focused on the playoff race at the expense of everything else. The logical outcome from this is that you need more teams and games involved in the playoff *race* even if we still end up seeing Alabama/Ohio State/Clemson in the final four.
01-09-2021 05:55 PM
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Post: #150
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 04:19 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The ESPN talking heads are masters at completely ignoring facts and spinning manufactured story lines.

"Masters" overestimates their abilities.
01-09-2021 06:15 PM
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RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
When you consider that the EIGHT highest BCS and playoff games involved either Texas, Ohio St. or Oregon, you have to think that expanding the geographic range of the finalists matters.
01-09-2021 06:17 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #152
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 01:10 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 05:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:01 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  This is an invalid argument because the NFL team who wins their division gets in even if they are 6-10 and sometimes better teams are wildcard or left out. College easily could have the same system. The ACC isn’t all that great yet Clemson is still a good team. Florida was horribly overrated this season. Georgia almost lost to Cincy. Iowa State lost to Louisiana by 17 at home and still was competing for Big XII championship. If winning your conference doesn’t mean something then there should be 130 independent teams.

I don't think your NFL example invalidates my point at all. If anything, your point invalidates the NFL process, because it seems rather ridiculous that one NFL team can make the playoffs with a 6-10 record while another misses out with a 10-6 record, merely because the former team won a terrible division.

That seems like a really good argument for not having "autobids" based on conferences, divisions, etc.

As far as conferences are concerned, as Nick Saban says, winning the SEC is a major achievement in and of itself, well worthy of receiving a big trophy for the school and hats and t-shirts and championship rings for the players. No matter if it leads to anything else or not.

While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3

I didn't say they killed the bowl games. I said they killed the interest. We have more bowls than ever because we have more FBS teams than ever.

I don't think bowl games materialize just because new schools join FBS. Someone has to be able to make money off of them.

The fact that we have more bowl games than ever on TV suggests to me that interest is there.
01-09-2021 06:25 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #153
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 01:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

It already does have such a system. Right now---Houston has just as many playoff appearances as Michigan and Tennesee. Frankly, Houston has been to the playoffs just as much as the vast majority of P5 teams---zero times. Heck, Im pretty sure UCF has more CFP NYD bowl appearances than Tennesee or Michigan as well.

Either way, even if Houston did have more playoff appearances than the major teams you mentioned in a 5-1-2---the fault would lie squarely on the coaches of those teams that missed the playoffs. All they had to do is win their conference or claim a wild card---there would be no committee to blame. Lets be honest---all the wild cards in a 5-1-2 will be coming from the P5 ranks. So, after all the gnashing of teeth---almost twice as many P5 schools (like Tennessee, Michigan, Penn St, Texas, etc) would be entering the playoff each year than do under the current system. Is 5-1-2 perfect-----nope. But its the only system that creates a path for every team at the start of the season, while putting full control of the destiny of each team in that teams hands, while also guaranteeing that the #1 and #2 teams in the nation will always be in the playoff (CCG upsets will not block the #1 and #2 team from making the playoff if the Committee deems them the top two teams).

To me, there's a YUGE difference between Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having zero playoff berths and Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having one playoff berth. The little G5 brother having MORE would IMO be a big pride/status thing on both sides.

And I do not think the presence of two wild-cards mollifies that. That number is so small as to not make a bit of difference. Remember, when I say Texas would have zero playoffs and Houston one during the CFP years, that's assuming a 5/1/2 system with two wild-cards. Texas never would have gotten one. Ditto for FSU, Miami, etc. It's just two.

It will be extremely difficult to get in to the top 8, period. To do so while hampered by the presence of autobids that would allow a G5 ranked outside to claim-jump one of them - and yes, a P5 champ that is outside the top 8 to do so as well - makes it that much harder. IMO, those bids will be far to valuable to give away that way.

But maybe we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 06:31 PM by quo vadis.)
01-09-2021 06:29 PM
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Post: #154
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

It already does have such a system. Right now---Houston has just as many playoff appearances as Michigan and Tennesee. Frankly, Houston has been to the playoffs just as much as the vast majority of P5 teams---zero times. Heck, Im pretty sure UCF has more CFP NYD bowl appearances than Tennesee or Michigan as well.

Either way, even if Houston did have more playoff appearances than the major teams you mentioned in a 5-1-2---the fault would lie squarely on the coaches of those teams that missed the playoffs. All they had to do is win their conference or claim a wild card---there would be no committee to blame. Lets be honest---all the wild cards in a 5-1-2 will be coming from the P5 ranks. So, after all the gnashing of teeth---almost twice as many P5 schools (like Tennessee, Michigan, Penn St, Texas, etc) would be entering the playoff each year than do under the current system. Is 5-1-2 perfect-----nope. But its the only system that creates a path for every team at the start of the season, while putting full control of the destiny of each team in that teams hands, while also guaranteeing that the #1 and #2 teams in the nation will always be in the playoff (CCG upsets will not block the #1 and #2 team from making the playoff if the Committee deems them the top two teams).

To me, there's a YUGE difference between Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having zero playoff berths and Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having one playoff berth. The little G5 brother having MORE would IMO be a big pride/status thing on both sides.

And I do not think the presence of two wild-cards mollifies that. That number is so small as to not make a bit of difference. Remember, when I say Texas would have zero playoffs and Houston one during the CFP years, that's assuming a 5/1/2 system with two wild-cards. Texas never would have gotten one. Ditto for FSU, Miami, etc. It's just two.

It will be extremely difficult to get in to the top 8, period. To do so while hampered by the presence of autobids that would allow a G5 ranked outside to claim-jump one of them - and yes, a P5 champ that is outside the top 8 to do so as well - makes it that much harder. IMO, those bids will be far to valuable to give away that way.

But maybe we shall see.

To be sure, I don’t think the P5 would *want* to give the G5 a slot of it didn’t have to do so. However, I think that’s the trade-off for each P5 champ getting an auto-bid. I know that we’ve gone around in this debate a lot, but it’s hard for me to see any way that there’s a playoff expansion without P5 auto-bids (regardless of the merits of that system versus a “straight 8” system).

From my perspective, the two biggest drivers of an 8-team playoff would be (1) more money (particularly in a pandemic world where colleges can’t pass up any revenue sources anymore) and (2) the P5 don’t want to be left out of the playoff *ever* again. 99% of the time isn’t good enough - it has to 100% of the time come hell or high water. When you see P5 leagues already so bothered by missing the CFP in a 4-team playoff, just imagine the “house on fire” narratives for a conference commissioner and university presidents of a P5 league misses the playoff in a straight 8 format (like Pac-12 would have this year). The whole point is to protect themselves when their champ is like this year’s Oregon team so they’re still not shut out (which I know is exactly what bothers proponents of a straight 8 system or having some type rankings requirement, but the point is that I can’t imagine how an 8-team playoff happens without 100% guaranteed P5 auto-bids at a minimum in the first place).
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 08:02 PM by Frank the Tank.)
01-09-2021 08:01 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #155
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
Ya, if the only 8-team option is Straight 8, I think the P5 wouldn’t go that way. It’d diminish the CCGs of the strongest conferences, and still not help the weaker CCGs (like the Pac-12 this year). There is already at least 1 blowout in the semis, another round would just be 1 more chance for a NC-caliber team to have a bad day. No thanks.
01-09-2021 10:15 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #156
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
As Frank notes, KISS.

The 5-1-2 model seems to be the most simple, fair and understandable of all the hypothetical models.

In summary:

The five winners of the P5 leagues automatically go (but with some basic criteria to meet).

The top G5 team goes (but with some fairly strict criteria to meet).

Two wildcards.
01-09-2021 10:44 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #157
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-08-2021 05:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:01 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-04-2021 01:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  If that's the main point, than it doesn't seem to be much of a point. The CFP, with its many blowouts in the semifinals, has shown that, if anything, there are typically fewer than four deserving teams, there never have been eight.

Plus, "conference champ" is a very poor indicator of deserving. Why should a team get in merely because they beat out 11 or 12 other teams, none of whom may have been any good? That's not merit, that's "affirmative action" for conferences.

If you are worried about "smoke filled rooms" deciding the eight, then just let an aggregation of computers do it.

This is an invalid argument because the NFL team who wins their division gets in even if they are 6-10 and sometimes better teams are wildcard or left out. College easily could have the same system. The ACC isn’t all that great yet Clemson is still a good team. Florida was horribly overrated this season. Georgia almost lost to Cincy. Iowa State lost to Louisiana by 17 at home and still was competing for Big XII championship. If winning your conference doesn’t mean something then there should be 130 independent teams.

I don't think your NFL example invalidates my point at all. If anything, your point invalidates the NFL process, because it seems rather ridiculous that one NFL team can make the playoffs with a 6-10 record while another misses out with a 10-6 record, merely because the former team won a terrible division.

That seems like a really good argument for not having "autobids" based on conferences, divisions, etc.

As far as conferences are concerned, as Nick Saban says, winning the SEC is a major achievement in and of itself, well worthy of receiving a big trophy for the school and hats and t-shirts and championship rings for the players. No matter if it leads to anything else or not.

While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3

Quantity =\= quality in the mind of the viewer. Also if bowls were important players wouldn’t opt out as much.
01-10-2021 01:41 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #158
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 06:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:10 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 05:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 04:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't think your NFL example invalidates my point at all. If anything, your point invalidates the NFL process, because it seems rather ridiculous that one NFL team can make the playoffs with a 6-10 record while another misses out with a 10-6 record, merely because the former team won a terrible division.

That seems like a really good argument for not having "autobids" based on conferences, divisions, etc.

As far as conferences are concerned, as Nick Saban says, winning the SEC is a major achievement in and of itself, well worthy of receiving a big trophy for the school and hats and t-shirts and championship rings for the players. No matter if it leads to anything else or not.

While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3

I didn't say they killed the bowl games. I said they killed the interest. We have more bowls than ever because we have more FBS teams than ever.

I don't think bowl games materialize just because new schools join FBS. Someone has to be able to make money off of them.

The fact that we have more bowl games than ever on TV suggests to me that interest is there.

TV=more bowl games. ESPN has how many channels now? The ability to televise games, and by having games sponsored by a network got us here.

There were just as many teams at the top level in the 70’s and there were like 10 bowls.
01-10-2021 10:05 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #159
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-09-2021 08:01 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 12:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:32 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Just don't think there can be a system where the MAC winner has a better chance of making the CFP than Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Texas, Florida State, etc.
Plus they would need to be penalized with a play-in game, short rest for next game, and receive much less money.
I just don't see that happening.

Yes, if we had had 5/1/2 since the start of the CFP, Houston would have more playoff appearances than Texas, Memphis would have more playoff appearances than Tennessee, Western Michigan would have more playoff appearances than Michigan, and UCF would have more playoff appearances than FSU, Florida or Miami.

I do not think it likely that the P5 will allow such a model to exist.

It already does have such a system. Right now---Houston has just as many playoff appearances as Michigan and Tennesee. Frankly, Houston has been to the playoffs just as much as the vast majority of P5 teams---zero times. Heck, Im pretty sure UCF has more CFP NYD bowl appearances than Tennesee or Michigan as well.

Either way, even if Houston did have more playoff appearances than the major teams you mentioned in a 5-1-2---the fault would lie squarely on the coaches of those teams that missed the playoffs. All they had to do is win their conference or claim a wild card---there would be no committee to blame. Lets be honest---all the wild cards in a 5-1-2 will be coming from the P5 ranks. So, after all the gnashing of teeth---almost twice as many P5 schools (like Tennessee, Michigan, Penn St, Texas, etc) would be entering the playoff each year than do under the current system. Is 5-1-2 perfect-----nope. But its the only system that creates a path for every team at the start of the season, while putting full control of the destiny of each team in that teams hands, while also guaranteeing that the #1 and #2 teams in the nation will always be in the playoff (CCG upsets will not block the #1 and #2 team from making the playoff if the Committee deems them the top two teams).

To me, there's a YUGE difference between Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having zero playoff berths and Texas having zero playoff berths and Houston having one playoff berth. The little G5 brother having MORE would IMO be a big pride/status thing on both sides.

And I do not think the presence of two wild-cards mollifies that. That number is so small as to not make a bit of difference. Remember, when I say Texas would have zero playoffs and Houston one during the CFP years, that's assuming a 5/1/2 system with two wild-cards. Texas never would have gotten one. Ditto for FSU, Miami, etc. It's just two.

It will be extremely difficult to get in to the top 8, period. To do so while hampered by the presence of autobids that would allow a G5 ranked outside to claim-jump one of them - and yes, a P5 champ that is outside the top 8 to do so as well - makes it that much harder. IMO, those bids will be far to valuable to give away that way.

But maybe we shall see.

To be sure, I don’t think the P5 would *want* to give the G5 a slot of it didn’t have to do so. However, I think that’s the trade-off for each P5 champ getting an auto-bid. I know that we’ve gone around in this debate a lot, but it’s hard for me to see any way that there’s a playoff expansion without P5 auto-bids (regardless of the merits of that system versus a “straight 8” system).

From my perspective, the two biggest drivers of an 8-team playoff would be (1) more money (particularly in a pandemic world where colleges can’t pass up any revenue sources anymore) and (2) the P5 don’t want to be left out of the playoff *ever* again. 99% of the time isn’t good enough - it has to 100% of the time come hell or high water. When you see P5 leagues already so bothered by missing the CFP in a 4-team playoff, just imagine the “house on fire” narratives for a conference commissioner and university presidents of a P5 league misses the playoff in a straight 8 format (like Pac-12 would have this year). The whole point is to protect themselves when their champ is like this year’s Oregon team so they’re still not shut out (which I know is exactly what bothers proponents of a straight 8 system or having some type rankings requirement, but the point is that I can’t imagine how an 8-team playoff happens without 100% guaranteed P5 auto-bids at a minimum in the first place).

Frank, I totally get the notion that the P5 want certainty. That's what it means to be "powerful", you get stuff whether you deserve it or not. Like the P5 currently get a certain bid to an NY6 bowl, whether they deserve it or not.

But, I question how insistent they will be on that w/respect to an 8-team playoff, simply because they've never insisted on it before. At any time in the past 100+ years of major-conference football, the big conferences could have set up a playoff system that guaranteed a spot for each of them in the playoff, and they have never done so. They have set up a bunch of systems the past 30 years - the Bowl Alliance, Bowl Coalition, BCS and now CFP and in any or all of them they could have built that feature in, and yet never have. That suggests to me that it isn't that huge of a deal.

So IMO, since as recently as 2014, the P5 were willing to create a playoff that *guaranteed* that at least one of them would miss the playoffs every year, I do not dismiss the idea that they would be willing to create an 8-team playoff that would give each a much higher percentage chance, such as straight-8, a system that had it been in place since 2014, and not counting this year, would have left only one of them out of the playoffs one single time. To me, that dramatic decrease in the odds of being left out - from 29% in the current CFP (7 times a P5 conference was left out in the first 6 years of the CFP) to 4% in straight 8, is commensurate with how strongly the P5 feel about being included.

Plus, IMO the 5/1/2 model also has the problems of Little Brothers having an easier path to the playoff than a lot of major powers, and the legal issue of each P5 having a guaranteed spot while each G5 conference does not.

But again, maybe we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2021 10:35 AM by quo vadis.)
01-10-2021 10:32 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #160
RE: The Unauthorized, Semi-Official 5-1-2 Mega Thread
(01-10-2021 10:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 06:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 01:10 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 05:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 08:42 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  While there are very rare occasions where 7-9 teams (a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs in the 16-game format) make the playoffs, the NFL considers it a necessary risk in order to keep division races relevant. Washington-Philly was a big game, and got decent ratings, because the division was on the line. If those two teams, in two of the NFL's biggest markets, had already been eliminated weeks earlier, then no one would have cared to watch it. The NFL isn't stupid. Ratings and intrigue still matter.

We already killed interest in the vast majority of bowls when we went to the current format. Whoever anticipated that didn't scream loud enough when decisions were made. While conference championship games in college would still provide an additional data point, straight at-large would likely still downplay their importance.

If the CFP killed interest in the vast majority of bowls, how come we have more bowl games than ever?

Doesn't compute. 07-coffee3

I didn't say they killed the bowl games. I said they killed the interest. We have more bowls than ever because we have more FBS teams than ever.

I don't think bowl games materialize just because new schools join FBS. Someone has to be able to make money off of them.

The fact that we have more bowl games than ever on TV suggests to me that interest is there.

TV=more bowl games. ESPN has how many channels now? The ability to televise games, and by having games sponsored by a network got us here.

There were just as many teams at the top level in the 70’s and there were like 10 bowls.

But .... TV channels can show other things. The fact that ESPN chooses to show a lot of bowls suggests that there is demand for that, greater demand than for alternative programming.

Bottom line is, more bowls are being televised than ever, which suggests demand for bowls on TV is greater than ever.
01-10-2021 10:38 AM
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