jedclampett
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RE: AAC can never agree to G5 playoff. That's what the P5 is trying to force.
(12-26-2020 01:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: ...the wild cards are there so a structual change is not necessarily required for more G5's to start making the playoffs.
There is an old saying that says something to the effect that "if you let the camel put his nose under the edge of the tent, eventually the entire camel will follow".
Thats the way I see the G5 playoff access. Right now, the G5 access would be very limited---1 out of 8 slots is pretty minimal considering almost half of FBS is made up of G5 teams. But to me, thats the camels nose. That access will change recruiting. Top players that want a real crack at the playoff will never ever select a G5 in the current world where the G5 has NO access at all.
But with a true legit guaranteed path to the playoff---G5 teams that used to just win a slot in the access bowl (like UCF, Boise, Houston, Memphis, etc) will now be participating in the actual playoff. I believe that will result in a massive shift in the recruiting grounds.
Here is why. Whats the more likely path to the CFP for a top tier athlete who isnt selected by Bama, Clemson, Ohio St, Penn St, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, USC, or Oklhoma? Do you have a better shot of making the playoff from Mississippi St---where Bama, LSU, and Georgia are standing in your way? Or do you stand a better chance of making the playoff from someplace like UCF, Boise, or Houston? I think common sense says you'd have a more likely shot at getting to the playoffs at Houston than you probably would at Texas Tech--where Texas and Oklahoma are standing in the way every year.
My belief is just getting actual real life legit access to the playoff will be seminal event in college football and will have wide ranging positive effects for the G5. The two biggest effects?
(1) It will improve recruiting by the top G5 schools---and it will improve the casual fan interest in the outcome of G5 conference races. That means better ratings--and more money for those G5 media rights.
(2) As the recruiting, performance, interest, quality, and ratings of the G5 improves---the CFP access to the G5 will improve as well....but that comes later.
That is a very optimistic scenario, and if the non-P5 programs keep improving the way they have, it might become possible for things to unfold that way in the years ahead.
From the standpoint of the AAC, however, the benefit of a 5-1-2 CFP could have much more tangible benefits in a much shorter time frame:
Schools such as BYU and Army that would otherwise be disinclined to do so would have a much more compelling reason to affiliate with the AAC as FB members if the CFP were to adopt the 5-1-2 proposal, because the pathway into the CFP playoffs as the AAC champion would be so much more feasible than going undefeated and hoping for an at-large bid.
Consider 2020, for example. Notre Dame and Texas A&M would be the likely at-large teams, and Cincinnati would be the non-P5 team. Even if BYU had gone 11-0 in 2020, they would not have been ranked ahead of Notre Dame or TAMU. However, they could have qualified for the CFP by defeating Cincinnati in the AAC championship game.
Given that reality, BYU and 1 or 2 other high-quality non-P5 teams (e.g., Army, Air Force, SDSU...and Boise, if they haven't already joined by that point) might apply for membership in the AAC.
If Boise State and a quality BB school like VCU become the 12th FB and BB schools, replacing Connecticut, as now appears possible, and if BYU were to seek membership to become more CFP-eligible, the AAC might be able to kick-start a process that could eventuate in P6/A6 status by 2032 under the auspices of an expanded broadcasting agreement with ESPN.
Things might unfold like this:
1. During the annual NCAA Congress in January 2021 , there is an agreement to expand to a 5-1-2 playoff system by 2022.
2. Boise State settles on a new conference for their BB/olympic teams and joins the AAC. In the Spring, VCU accepts an invitation to join the AAC as a BB/olympics member. Both moves are approved by ESPN, with some adjustments to the existing AAC broadcasting agreement. VCU receives the amount currently paid to Wichita State. Boise State's compensation package may or may not be enhanced.
--The AAC grants approval to provide Boise St. with an special travel allowance, offsetting the
3. BYU expresses interest in a FB-only or all-sports membership in the AAC. The AAC approves of the idea, in principle, and both parties soon initiate discussions with ESPN.
4. Due to the addition of Boise State and - possibly - BYU, the AAC begins to take on the appearance of a potential power conference.
--In response, San Diego State, Air Force, and other potential suitors to contact the AAC Commissioner with membership applications.
--This news has the effect of expanding the discussion with ESPN about BYU's application into a broader discussion about the possibility of expanding to 14 teams.
5. ESPN approves the idea of expanding the broadcasting agreement to cover BYU, in principle, and agrees to discuss the possibility of an expanded 14-team conference broadcasting package.
6. ESPN, BYU, and the AAC have initial discussions to sketch out the outlines of a revised and expanded AAC broadcasting deal.
--They come to a three-way consensus that BYU would become a FB (or all-sports) member, and agree to proceed on the basis that San Diego State (FB) would become the conference as its 14th member.
--They also agree to expand to 14 BB and olympic member schools through the addition of Dayton (and St. Louis, if BYU joins for FB only).
--The selections of BYU, SDSU, and the basketball school(s) are strongly influenced by market research conducted by ESPN, indicating sufficient probability to warrant expansion.
7. ESPN proposes an initial broadcasting agreement:
--The remainder of the 12-year broadcasting agreement would continue for the existing AAC members, with enhancements.
--All new members would "piggyback" onto the existing agreement for the remainder of the 12-year period, with BB members receiving the amount paid to Wichita State.
--San Diego State would be paid the amount currently paid to Navy.
--BYU's compensation would depend on whether they're a FB or all-sports member, and BYU might have to be granted special terms, pertaining to the BYU sports network.
8. The AAC and new members review the proposal and note market research estimates suggesting a probable 20%-30% spike in viewership. --They make a counter-offer, which would include an automatic 10% increase in payments per-school if conference viewership increases by 20%.
--Their counter-offer also includes a provision stipulating that ESPN would take all the same steps that they took to obtain official "autonomy" status from the NCAA for the P5 conferences within the first three years of the new agreement. The network would then proceed to obtain the consent of the P5 conferences for the other privileges of "power" conference status to be extended to the AAC.
9. ESPN agrees to take the steps needed to obtain "autonomy" status from the NCAA and to obtain consent from the P5 for the privileges of "power conference" status by a later date - - the end of the broadcasting agreement, and agrees to a 5% increase in $$ per school if average conference viewership increases by 25% and remains elevated for two years in a row.
--ESPN stipulates, however, that in order to obtain official "autonomy" and "power conference" status from the NCAA and P5 conferences, they will need to obtain a Grant of Rights (GOR) agreement from all ACC full and affiliate members.
10. The parties agree, and by Fall, 2023, the conference consists of the following teams:
West (FB): NOTE: The programs that currently appear to have the most top 30 potential are highlighted.
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
BYU MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE
Boise MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE
SDSU PACIFIC TIME ZONE
Tulane or Navy
East (FB):
Cincy
UCF
USF
Temple
ECU
Memphis
Tulane or Navy
West (BB): NOTE: Programs with particular NCAA/NIT potential as of 2020-21 are highlighted.
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
BYU (all-sports) MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE
Wichita St.
Tulane
Memphis
East (BB):
Cincy
VCU
Dayton or St. Louis
UCF
USF
Temple
ECU
If things were to unfold in this manner, after a 5-1-2 CFP model goes into effect, the American might be able to become a full P6/A6 conference by 2032
With 10 potential top 30 FB programs and at least 10 programs with NCAA or NIT potential, recruiting and viewership would begin to show rapid improvement. Revenue will increase in the next broadcasting agreement so that more high-quality coaches could be retained. As a result, the conference could contend more and more competitively for national FB and BB championships
If a scenario such as this should unfold, a 5-1-2 CFP would have more than served its purpose from the AAC's perspective. The other G5 conferences would also benefit from having the ability to contend for a spot in the CFP series.
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(This post was last modified: 12-27-2020 01:37 PM by jedclampett.)
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