greyowl72
Heisman
Posts: 5,651
Joined: Apr 2008
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I Root For: Rice
Location: Permanent Basement
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RE: Here is the Evidence--for all to see w/ charts/graphs
(12-10-2020 09:49 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (12-10-2020 09:41 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote: (12-10-2020 09:32 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (12-10-2020 07:48 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: I made this same response on the main Spin Room. I added bold fonts here because Good Owl apparently only can understand posts that feature that emphasis. And a few more states.
Here is evidence fact #1 -- All 50 states have now been certified for their election results.
Fact #2 (comparing election results from 2016 to 2020) -- Just looking at the red states, the only 2 states Trump improved from 2016 to 2020 were Florida (he gained a net 2.2 percentage points over 2016 when you compare his numbers to that of Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020) and Utah (he gained a net 2 although that state was skewed in 2016 by Evan McMullen). Arkansas and Ohio were pushes (same percentages in both 2016 and 2020).
Here are the percentages Trump lost from 2016 in the states he won....
Alabama - lost 2.2 pct - again to help out Good Owl, I'll break it down a bit. In 2016, Trump won 62.08 percent of the vote there and Clinton 34.36. In 2020, Trump won 62.03 percent (pretty damn consistent really), but Biden won 36.57 (helped by weaker 3rd party candidates, which is an underlying factor of the 2020 election in nearly every state). Dems gained 2.2 pct from 2016 to 2020
Alaska - lost 4.6 (2016 - T 51.28, B 36.55; 2020 - T 52.83, B 42.77)
Idaho - lost 1
Indiana - lost 2.8
Iowa - lost 2.2
Kansas - lost 6
Kentucky - lost 3.8
Louisiana - lost 1
Mississippi - lost 1
Missouri - lost 3
Montana - lost 5
Nebraska - lost 1.7
North Carolina - lost 2.5
North Dakota - lost 2.3
Oklahoma - lost 3.5
South Carolina - lost 2.2
South Dakota - lost 3.5
Tennessee - lost 2.8
Texas - lost 3.6
West Virginia - lost 3.2
Wyoming - lost 1.3
Some random blue states (well not particularly random but more states where Trump did worse in 2020 than 2016 were Colo, Ct and Del - Trump lost 6 percent in each one of those states.
For comparison sake in the true battleground states, PA was Trump lost 2, Georgia was Trump lost 5, Michigan was Trump lost 3, Wisconsin was Trump lost 1.4, Minnesota was Trump lost 5.7, Arizona was Trump lost 3.8 and Nevada was a push.
To be fair, Trump gained a bit in some blue states (but still lost the state by large margins).
The bottom line is almost every red state or swing state in the country had a 1 to 3 percent swing where people switched their vote from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. It's not unreasonable to believe at all that if Trump is losing consisently 1 to 3 percent in even the reddest of states that he would also be losing 1 to 3 percent in the battleground states. The only states that I could see as being questionable is Georgia and maybe Minnesota just because those swings were closer to 5 to 6 percent.
Fact #3 - Young people (under the age of 30) voted in record numbers this year. I've already posted the link to those stats already but I want to say it was 54 to 55 percent of all potential voters in that age group (compared to 48 to 50 percent 4 years ago and 52 to 53 percent for Obama in 2008). 60 percent of all voters in that age group voted for Biden.
Maybe you don't like why they voted for Biden, but you can't deny that they did. They're the folks most likely to be out of work due to Covid (restaurant workers and other service industry people), and they're also the group most concerned by climate change.
Black women also voted in incredibly high numbers (and I want to say voted 90 percent plus for Biden?).
I personally am pissed about the election results - I'm shocked more people fed up with Trump didn't vote for Democrats down ticket. In my county, we went higher for Biden than Clinton, but yet we voted for a Republican House candidate to replace Pete Olsen at the same time rejecting Troy Nehls' twin brother for sheriff.
Republicans should be happy that they avoided a complete wipeout. They have a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court (which I feel was stolen from the Democrats, but that's a different thread). And if Biden is the disaster that everyone thinks he will be, the 2022 midterms could get very ugly for the Democrats.
I think you explain in your own post why the down ticket races did not do as well as the presidential race - the Democrats made it all about Trump and succeeded in not making it about policy or party.
The percentage thing is misleading. I don't think it was so much people changing their minds about trump as it was the democrats did well in turning out demographic groups(you mention young people and black women) that would vote Democrat. The record turnout displays that. So, to use a generic example, if in 2016 Trump got 5100 votes out of 10,000, and in the same district in 2020 Trump got 5400 out of 11,500, of course the percentages are going to go down, even as supporters go up. The difference is that the Dems got out a lot of voters who are safe Democrats but who stayed home in 2016.
By making it about Trump, you developed a lot of voters like my nephew who voted Biden but then voted GOP the rest of the way. His preferred person for prez in 2024 is Dan Crenshaw. So a lot of your 2020 Dem votes, like his, will fade away in 2024 when you don't have the Trump bogeyman to run against or 4 years to poison the well with lies and innuendo.
In any case, I don't think Biden will run again in 2024, primarily because he won't be President any more - Harris will. JMHO. But it makes strategic sense not to run an elderly white man who will be having increasing gaffes and instead run an incumbent black woman. I think we will finally see actual use of the 25th amendment. Again, JMHO. Time will tell.
Midterms do usually run against the party of the WH, so I am looking forward to regaining control of the House in 2022 as well as expanding the majority in the Senate. I have a person in mind to support in 2024, should I still be here. He is one of the ones I supported in 2016 against Trump.
I think yours is a Pyrrhic victory.
I am in general agreement with your post about voter turnout.
Your comment also just explained why the results are not indicative of fraud.
Nobody here has asked me my opinion of fraud.
Although there were instances here and there of questionable actions and methods, I think nothing sufficient will be found in time to materially change the result that has been announced. Whether Trump was voted out or counted out, Biden will be the next president, for a while.
I think of much more importance was the four year campaign of lies and innuendo that painted and polarized people's opinions.
In 2024, that won't work. Not enough time.
OO, your characterization of “the four year campaign of lies and innuendos” is called politics. It happens in the aftermath of each election. The past four years, in my opinion wasn’t much different than the previous four years and the Clinton-Trump race. Nor much different than the Obama election cycles. The “lies and innuendos” seem sharper because of the way we live in the midst of an ocean of news streaming, social media, echo chambers from each side....all vying for our attention and monetizing that attention.
And, in my opinion, your comment that in 2024 there won’t be enough time... well, I sincerely think that there’s plenty of time. Too much time, probably.
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