RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(11-28-2020 12:55 AM)jedclampett Wrote:
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-27-2020 08:58 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:
(11-27-2020 08:10 PM)jedclampett Wrote:
(11-27-2020 04:00 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: I hope I don't come off as too negative in this reply - that is not my intent.
First and foremost, good on ya for being proud of your school. And you are right that Marshall is a recognizable name - obviously the history that was just commemorated, FCS success, possibly the template for moving up and being successful, some memorable names / moments like Moss, Leftwich in that GMAC bowl.
And having said all that, in fact, the stats you cite show why Marshall would be dilutive to the AAC not additive. Marshall does have a recognizable brand and the reasons they're not the choice to add show why very few WOULD be a good choice to add.
You mention 28k attendance...the 11 AAC football schools averaged 30,285 in 2019. They averaged 30,544 2015-2019. 28k would lower the AAC's average attendance.
You said that 1.89 million viewers for bowl games is pretty dang good.
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
Marshall is good for a G4 in a lot of measures, but would be a net negative to add to the AAC. Again, not slamming Marshall or your opinion, but as a case study Marshall is a good example for why so few programs would be a net positive to add.
I agree with herdfan129.
The counter-arguments in response to his post were not very persuasive.
For example:
To use an old expression, "there's not a dime's worth of difference" between the AAC's average attendance of 30,285 and Marshall's reported average attendance against AAC opponents. Although it's true that "28k would lower the AAC's average attendance," it would only lower the AAC's average attendance by a total of 190 fans (.006%) per game.
Marshall's average non-NY6 bowl viewership was only ~15% lower than the average viewership of the AAC's non-NY6 bowls during the same period, and their average bowl viewership of 1,890,000 is nothing to sneeze at.
These minor differences are not important enough to exclude a team from a conference.
Far more important is the fact that Marshall's record since the inception of the AAC would place them in the top tier of the AAC.
Marshall is probably the next best FB add for the AAC, after BYU, Army, Air Force, and Boise State. In fact, in terms of the average strength of their program over the past 10 years, Marshall may be #2 after Boise State.
Why? Because the data suggest that, with the exception of UCF and Cincinnati, Boise State and Marshall have been the two non-P5 FB schools that have finished the most seasons in the AP Top 35 since the AAC came into existence in 2013.
Boise State has finished all 7 seasons (2013-2019) in the AP Top 35 (top 25 plus "others receiving votes"). UCF is next on the list with four finishes in the top 35. Marshall (currently #17) and Cincinnati (currently #10) are close behind, having finished in the top 35 three times since 2013 in addition to their current rankings. Air Force (3 top 35 finishes, but currently unranked) Army (2 top 35 finishes) and BYU (0 top 35 finishes) trail behind Marshall, as do Appalachian State (3; currently unranked), San Diego State (3; currently unranked), and 9 of the 11 current AAC teams (Memphis (3, currently unranked), Navy (2), Temple (2), Houston (1), SMU (1), USF (1), Tulsa (1), Tulane (0), & ECU (0)).
.
Marshall would rank as a top tier football member of the AAC, in terms of the number of finishes in the AP top 35 since 2013:
AAC TIER 1 (3+ TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013):
1 UCF: 4 finishes (#7, #10, #12, #24) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
2 Cincinnati: 3 finishes (#21, #23, #35) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #7)
3 Memphis: 3 finishes (#17, #24, #25) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
4 Marshall: 3 finishes (#23, #29, #32) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #17)
AAC TIER 2 (1 OR 2 TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013):
5 Navy: 2 finishes (#18, #20) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
6 USF: 2 finishes (#19, #21) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
7 Houston: 1 finish (#8) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
8 Tulsa: 1 finish (#34) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #24)
9 Temple: 2 finishes (#31, #33) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
10 SMU: 1 finish (#33) in AP Top 35 (currently #29)
AAC TIER 3 (1 OR 2 TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013:
11 Tulane: 0 finishes in AP Top 35
12 ECU: 0 finishes in AP Top 35
Don’t care enough to check others, but know Memphis has received votes in other years...not that that matters much imo. Bowl viewership has zero bearing on conference contracts as they are negotiated separately per committee members who negotiated the current deal. A better measure may be G5 season games over multiple years. I have no opinion one way or the other on specific teams, just clarifying what numbers are pertinent to media deals.
In 2019, Marshall at Boise State got 1.38 million viewers...
In 2020, the Appalachian State at Marshall game got 1.25 million viewers.
That's it.
Not quite...
There were actually a few more Marshall FB games that had more than 450,000 viewers between 2015 and 2020 (links below). In addition, it makes sense to extend the comparisons back to the first AAC season in 2013.
1. In 2013, Marshall vs. Rice had 449,000 viewers
2. In 2013, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech had 738,000 viewers
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Not additive.
Not a benefit.
Standing pat is better than a net negative.
That does not compute!
.
On average, between 2013 and 2020, Marshall has played 1.875 games per season with 450,000 or more viewers, per season. They have posted solid viewership numbers over 7 of the 8 seasons (2013-2020).
.
NOTE: As one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, Marshall's viewership in the C-USA championship game and an expected bowl game are also likely to be in the million-plus range.
Jed, Jed, Jed....
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2020 11:06 AM by slhNavy91.)
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(11-27-2020 10:34 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Given the Jack Lengyel connection, I like that.
And George Chaump. During the summer of my senior year, a buddy of mine and I went to Annapolis and stayed with him and his family (we went to school with his twin daughters). You couldn’t have asked for a better man and family.
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(11-28-2020 10:57 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:55 AM)jedclampett Wrote:
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-27-2020 08:58 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:
(11-27-2020 08:10 PM)jedclampett Wrote: I agree with herdfan129.
The counter-arguments in response to his post were not very persuasive.
For example:
To use an old expression, "there's not a dime's worth of difference" between the AAC's average attendance of 30,285 and Marshall's reported average attendance against AAC opponents. Although it's true that "28k would lower the AAC's average attendance," it would only lower the AAC's average attendance by a total of 190 fans (.006%) per game.
Marshall's average non-NY6 bowl viewership was only ~15% lower than the average viewership of the AAC's non-NY6 bowls during the same period, and their average bowl viewership of 1,890,000 is nothing to sneeze at.
These minor differences are not important enough to exclude a team from a conference.
Far more important is the fact that Marshall's record since the inception of the AAC would place them in the top tier of the AAC.
Marshall is probably the next best FB add for the AAC, after BYU, Army, Air Force, and Boise State. In fact, in terms of the average strength of their program over the past 10 years, Marshall may be #2 after Boise State.
Why? Because the data suggest that, with the exception of UCF and Cincinnati, Boise State and Marshall have been the two non-P5 FB schools that have finished the most seasons in the AP Top 35 since the AAC came into existence in 2013.
Boise State has finished all 7 seasons (2013-2019) in the AP Top 35 (top 25 plus "others receiving votes"). UCF is next on the list with four finishes in the top 35. Marshall (currently #17) and Cincinnati (currently #10) are close behind, having finished in the top 35 three times since 2013 in addition to their current rankings. Air Force (3 top 35 finishes, but currently unranked) Army (2 top 35 finishes) and BYU (0 top 35 finishes) trail behind Marshall, as do Appalachian State (3; currently unranked), San Diego State (3; currently unranked), and 9 of the 11 current AAC teams (Memphis (3, currently unranked), Navy (2), Temple (2), Houston (1), SMU (1), USF (1), Tulsa (1), Tulane (0), & ECU (0)).
.
Marshall would rank as a top tier football member of the AAC, in terms of the number of finishes in the AP top 35 since 2013:
AAC TIER 1 (3+ TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013):
1 UCF: 4 finishes (#7, #10, #12, #24) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
2 Cincinnati: 3 finishes (#21, #23, #35) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #7)
3 Memphis: 3 finishes (#17, #24, #25) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
4 Marshall: 3 finishes (#23, #29, #32) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #17)
AAC TIER 2 (1 OR 2 TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013):
5 Navy: 2 finishes (#18, #20) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
6 USF: 2 finishes (#19, #21) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
7 Houston: 1 finish (#8) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
8 Tulsa: 1 finish (#34) in AP Top 35 (currently ranked #24)
9 Temple: 2 finishes (#31, #33) in AP Top 35 (not currently ranked)
10 SMU: 1 finish (#33) in AP Top 35 (currently #29)
AAC TIER 3 (1 OR 2 TOP 35 RANKINGS SINCE 2013:
11 Tulane: 0 finishes in AP Top 35
12 ECU: 0 finishes in AP Top 35
Don’t care enough to check others, but know Memphis has received votes in other years...not that that matters much imo. Bowl viewership has zero bearing on conference contracts as they are negotiated separately per committee members who negotiated the current deal. A better measure may be G5 season games over multiple years. I have no opinion one way or the other on specific teams, just clarifying what numbers are pertinent to media deals.
In 2019, Marshall at Boise State got 1.38 million viewers...
In 2020, the Appalachian State at Marshall game got 1.25 million viewers.
That's it.
Not quite...
There were actually a few more Marshall FB games that had more than 450,000 viewers between 2015 and 2020 (links below). In addition, it makes sense to extend the comparisons back to the first AAC season in 2013.
1. In 2013, Marshall vs. Rice had 449,000 viewers
2. In 2013, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech had 738,000 viewers
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Not additive.
Not a benefit.
Standing pat is better than a net negative.
That does not compute!
.
On average, between 2013 and 2020, Marshall has played 1.875 games per season with 450,000 or more viewers, per season. They have posted solid viewership numbers over 7 of the 8 seasons (2013-2020).
.
NOTE: As one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, Marshall's viewership in the C-USA championship game and an expected bowl game are also likely to be in the million-plus range.
Jed, Jed, Jed....
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
I almost went to look for the numbers and I was like nah, SLH already has them. As always an authoritative source on the the facts and figures.
I am sure that I am not the only one on this board who appreciates your accumulation of accurate data. It's useful and creates interesting comparisons to see the progress of the football side of the conference as we push to try and catch up with the A5.
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
I’d rather stay at 11 just if we’re adding teams for the sake of adding. We’ve built up enough cache where we’re being respected. Now if a team has invested in top notch facilities, fans can pack the stands normally, perennial top 25, and ny6 bust; then yes we can add. Until then, no.
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(11-28-2020 12:24 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:
(11-28-2020 10:57 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:55 AM)jedclampett Wrote:
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-27-2020 08:58 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote: Don’t care enough to check others, but know Memphis has received votes in other years...not that that matters much imo. Bowl viewership has zero bearing on conference contracts as they are negotiated separately per committee members who negotiated the current deal. A better measure may be G5 season games over multiple years. I have no opinion one way or the other on specific teams, just clarifying what numbers are pertinent to media deals.[/size]
In 2019, Marshall at Boise State got 1.38 million viewers...
In 2020, the Appalachian State at Marshall game got 1.25 million viewers.
That's it.
Not quite...
There were actually a few more Marshall FB games that had more than 450,000 viewers between 2015 and 2020 (links below). In addition, it makes sense to extend the comparisons back to the first AAC season in 2013.
1. In 2013, Marshall vs. Rice had 449,000 viewers
2. In 2013, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech had 738,000 viewers
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Not additive.
Not a benefit.
Standing pat is better than a net negative.
That does not compute!
.
On average, between 2013 and 2020, Marshall has played 1.875 games per season with 450,000 or more viewers, per season. They have posted solid viewership numbers over 7 of the 8 seasons (2013-2020).
.
NOTE: As one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, Marshall's viewership in the C-USA championship game and an expected bowl game are also likely to be in the million-plus range.
Jed, Jed, Jed....
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
I almost went to look for the numbers and I was like nah, SLH already has them. As always an authoritative source on the the facts and figures.
I am sure that I am not the only one on this board who appreciates your accumulation of accurate data. It's useful and creates interesting comparisons to see the progress of the football side of the conference as we push to try and catch up with the A5.
Didn't I say something very similar about SLH not long ago and you gave me some **** about it?
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(11-28-2020 11:55 PM)PuddlePirate Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:24 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:
(11-28-2020 10:57 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:55 AM)jedclampett Wrote:
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: In 2019, Marshall at Boise State got 1.38 million viewers...
In 2020, the Appalachian State at Marshall game got 1.25 million viewers.
That's it.
Not quite...
There were actually a few more Marshall FB games that had more than 450,000 viewers between 2015 and 2020 (links below). In addition, it makes sense to extend the comparisons back to the first AAC season in 2013.
1. In 2013, Marshall vs. Rice had 449,000 viewers
2. In 2013, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech had 738,000 viewers
(11-27-2020 09:35 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Not additive.
Not a benefit.
Standing pat is better than a net negative.
That does not compute!
.
On average, between 2013 and 2020, Marshall has played 1.875 games per season with 450,000 or more viewers, per season. They have posted solid viewership numbers over 7 of the 8 seasons (2013-2020).
.
NOTE: As one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, Marshall's viewership in the C-USA championship game and an expected bowl game are also likely to be in the million-plus range.
Jed, Jed, Jed....
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
I almost went to look for the numbers and I was like nah, SLH already has them. As always an authoritative source on the the facts and figures.
I am sure that I am not the only one on this board who appreciates your accumulation of accurate data. It's useful and creates interesting comparisons to see the progress of the football side of the conference as we push to try and catch up with the A5.
Didn't I say something very similar about SLH not long ago and you gave me some **** about it?
He is the analytics master of AAC viewership.
Pretty sure not. I usually leave links to his post in these type threads if he doesn't show up and people are talking numbers. When I am really lazy I just tell people to search the board for them lol. I think I even did it in an earlier post in this thread when fanhoods VPN sock was just running off.
It's not just viewership, he tracks are records vs p5 and g5, attendance and recruiting some. His history on the entire conference is pretty solid too when it comes to football.
I know he doesn't check the basketball threads really but I'll toss in a bball shout out to Navy for playing quite well so far this year. Army is looking impressive as well. Might be a fun patriot league year.
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(12-01-2020 07:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: Not sure if he's had too much egg nog or what--but C Austin Cox was suggesting UTSA as a good #12 today on Twitter.
Unfortunately it'll be official next Tuesday. The airport meeting went poorly, some egos got in the way. It is what it is I guess. New market, a west team that let's us push Memphis east, lots of growth potential, no pro market for football to compete with, blag blah blah
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(12-01-2020 08:53 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:
(11-28-2020 11:55 PM)PuddlePirate Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:24 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:
(11-28-2020 10:57 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(11-28-2020 12:55 AM)jedclampett Wrote: Not quite...
There were actually a few more Marshall FB games that had more than 450,000 viewers between 2015 and 2020 (links below). In addition, it makes sense to extend the comparisons back to the first AAC season in 2013.
1. In 2013, Marshall vs. Rice had 449,000 viewers
2. In 2013, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech had 738,000 viewers
On average, between 2013 and 2020, Marshall has played 1.875 games per season with 450,000 or more viewers, per season. They have posted solid viewership numbers over 7 of the 8 seasons (2013-2020).
.
NOTE: As one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country, Marshall's viewership in the C-USA championship game and an expected bowl game are also likely to be in the million-plus range.
Jed, Jed, Jed....
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
I almost went to look for the numbers and I was like nah, SLH already has them. As always an authoritative source on the the facts and figures.
I am sure that I am not the only one on this board who appreciates your accumulation of accurate data. It's useful and creates interesting comparisons to see the progress of the football side of the conference as we push to try and catch up with the A5.
Didn't I say something very similar about SLH not long ago and you gave me some **** about it?
He is the analytics master of AAC viewership.
Pretty sure not. I usually leave links to his post in these type threads if he doesn't show up and people are talking numbers. When I am really lazy I just tell people to search the board for them lol. I think I even did it in an earlier post in this thread when fanhoods VPN sock was just running off.
It's not just viewership, he tracks are records vs p5 and g5, attendance and recruiting some. His history on the entire conference is pretty solid too when it comes to football.
I know he doesn't check the basketball threads really but I'll toss in a bball shout out to Navy for playing quite well so far this year. Army is looking impressive as well. Might be a fun patriot league year.
I think he said "I trust slh and Pony" and you or someone else wanted to be short-listed, ha ha.
Since there is little point in talking about the Boise guy's info...
Patriot League hoops will be interesting. We're going pods - we have H&H Bucknell and H&H Lafayette, then H&H&H&H with Army, American, and Loyola. ALL of those are consecutive night H&Hs. WBB flipped from MBB.
COVID silver lining - we got previously unscheduled locals with GWU, Maryland, Mt St Mary's and Georgetown and went 3-1. (Morgan State and Delaware in Annapolis still to come). I'm more excited about Navy basketball than I typically am in December
Okay, I guess I have to re-post the content of post #410 that you selectively edited out. We were talking about conference controlled games and intra-conference games over 1,000,000 viewers. '15-'20 AAC had 53 conference controlled games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 1. '15-'20 AAC had 23 intra-conference games over a million - Marshall and the rest of the CUSA 0. 53 to 1. 23 to 0.
Why not before 2015? Well, I'm a Navy fan. In addition to the question of how do you treat Navy games from before 2015, what credit do you give to Louisville, Rutgers, others who played with the AAC patch on their jerseys before leaving? I'll look at current AAC makeup to address the bowls later on, but not to re-create those regular seasons.
And I don't really have to anyway.
You listed 15 datapoints.
#13 and #15 were already included in my post #410.
Then you added a slew that moved the goalposts from a million down to 435,000. (I know you SAID you were counting 450k + but you listed two lower than your own changed arbitrary threshhold. Jed gotta Jed). I can't fathom why you picked that, but it goes along with your imaginary "Top 35" I guess. Anyway, let's take a look...
#2 was at VT - not conference controlled. I would add another 27 non-AAC-controlled games over a million from '15-'20, moving from a 53-1 advantage to 80-2...but this one wasn't even over a million...
#1, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 14 are conference controlled, even intra-conference games but under a million. How many would I add to lower the bar for AAC games? Well, in 2020 so far I count 8 AAC controlled games between 435K and one million. 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018. 53-1 turns into at least 74-6. Missing three years of 435k-1M and that's already more than 11-1, so below average of the AAC.
Your #3, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 12 are bowl games. I directly addressed four of the six in post #403. I'll paste that in and add a comparison to the bowl viewership of the current 11 AAC members in 2014 and 2013.
-----
In 2019, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2019 AAC bowls averaged 1.97 million viewers without Memphis' Cotton Bowl, 2.57 million with it.
In 2018, the Gasparilla Bowl vs Marshall was the dead last worst viewed AAC bowl. 2018 AAC bowls averaged 2.26 million without UCF's Fiesta Bowl, 3.299 million with the Fiesta.
In 2017 AAC bowls averaged 2.303 million viewers without UCF's Peach Bowl, 3.171 million with the Peach.
In 2016 AAC bowls averaged 2.145 million viewers.
In 2015 UConn's St Petersburg Bowl vs Marshall with 2.4 million viewers was the fourth best viewership of the AAC's eight bowls. Ahead of the 2.166 million viewer average without Houston's Peach Bowl. AAC bowls including the Peach averaged 2.596 million viewers.
-----
In 2014 Marshall NIU bowl drew 2.25 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 2.76 million viewers
In 2013 Marshall Maryland bowl drew 2.58 million viewers. The 11 current AAC members were in six bowls that year, averaging 3.94 million viewers (five averaged 2.466 million IF you exclude UCF's Fiesta).
For the most part, bowl games are gonna get the audience that they're gonna get. A handful of blue-bloods will change a bowl game's numbers, e.g. Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl jumping its ratings/viewership over non-semifinal NY6 games. Generally highly dependent on timeslot. More importantly, bowls are completely separate from the conference's media rights deal. But the bottom line on those six Marshall bowls, though, are that they don't prove any additive value.
You listed fifteen examples overall that do nothing to refute my points or advance the argument that Marshall - or any G4 of similar profile - would be a net add to the AAC.
You also added an extra-small note predicting that Marshall's CUSA CCG might get over one million viewers. First, we'll never know - it's on CBSSN. Second, no track record to say so - at least two of your long list of Marshall games failing to get over one million viewers were CUSA CCGs at 449k and 725k; that's OK, Boise's mwc CCGs rarely get over a million, just like all the other G4 CCGs. Which gets us to the third point - IF they got over a million, AAC CCG will probably get over 3 million, so it makes MY case, not yours.
I almost went to look for the numbers and I was like nah, SLH already has them. As always an authoritative source on the the facts and figures.
I am sure that I am not the only one on this board who appreciates your accumulation of accurate data. It's useful and creates interesting comparisons to see the progress of the football side of the conference as we push to try and catch up with the A5.
Didn't I say something very similar about SLH not long ago and you gave me some **** about it?
He is the analytics master of AAC viewership.
Pretty sure not. I usually leave links to his post in these type threads if he doesn't show up and people are talking numbers. When I am really lazy I just tell people to search the board for them lol. I think I even did it in an earlier post in this thread when fanhoods VPN sock was just running off.
It's not just viewership, he tracks are records vs p5 and g5, attendance and recruiting some. His history on the entire conference is pretty solid too when it comes to football.
I know he doesn't check the basketball threads really but I'll toss in a bball shout out to Navy for playing quite well so far this year. Army is looking impressive as well. Might be a fun patriot league year.
I think he said "I trust slh and Pony" and you or someone else wanted to be short-listed, ha ha.
Since there is little point in talking about the Boise guy's info...
Patriot League hoops will be interesting. We're going pods - we have H&H Bucknell and H&H Lafayette, then H&H&H&H with Army, American, and Loyola. ALL of those are consecutive night H&Hs. WBB flipped from MBB.
COVID silver lining - we got previously unscheduled locals with GWU, Maryland, Mt St Mary's and Georgetown and went 3-1. (Morgan State and Delaware in Annapolis still to come). I'm more excited about Navy basketball than I typically am in December
Lol I remember I did get "offended" when someone said they only trust you and some other poster, if it was Pony......well I have a nice beach house in Arizona for them. Tongue in cheek doesn't always come through in message boards.
That's a nice resume you all are working on if everyone plays to their normal sort of level if you get the bid you should get a decent seed, maybe a coveted 12 or 13 and be in a solid position to get a w or two. I noticed Army is playing well and took out Buffalo as well. I saw some conferences are doing versions of that, it's a solid plan to get in a bunch of games quick and with time you have some flexibility if you have to delay. It will be a test, but that isn't bad prep for the conference tourney or NCAA/NIT those season ending tournaments tend to be grinders.
I love having Navy in this conference, it's a fun program to watch. My dad was in the Marines when I and my brother were born, other family in the Navy/Marines though both my grandfathers were in the Army. The Academies are a perfect reminder of where collegiate athletics really is in importance. Does it matter? Yeah, but not quite as much as we sometimes tend to think.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2020 11:39 PM by Foreverandever.)
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(12-01-2020 07:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: Not sure if he's had too much egg nog or what--but C Austin Cox was suggesting UTSA as a good #12 today on Twitter.
Let's pump the brakes on that. He responded to some fool that suggested them. It took them 7 years to be competitive in CUSA, so might need to check the math.
Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(12-02-2020 08:31 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(12-01-2020 07:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: Not sure if he's had too much egg nog or what--but C Austin Cox was suggesting UTSA as a good #12 today on Twitter.
Let's pump the brakes on that. He responded to some fool that suggested them. It took them 7 years to be competitive in CUSA, so might need to check the math.
They will do well in CUSA where they belong for now. Traylor is a good coach and He really wanted the SMU job after Morris left.
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
(12-02-2020 08:36 AM)Pony94 Wrote:
(12-02-2020 08:31 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(12-01-2020 07:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: Not sure if he's had too much egg nog or what--but C Austin Cox was suggesting UTSA as a good #12 today on Twitter.
Let's pump the brakes on that. He responded to some fool that suggested them. It took them 7 years to be competitive in CUSA, so might need to check the math.
They will do well in CUSA where they belong for now. Traylor is a good coach and He really wanted the SMU job after Morris left.
why does anyone even follow "c. austin cox", much less give him any credence? The guy's the consumate troll - its sad that his name evens pops up, in anything besides a bad joke
RE: Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
Which poster on here is C. Austin Cox anyway? He claims to be a Cincinnati grad, but I've never heard of the guy until a couple years ago and most of his stuff is pumping up Memphis and some other schools in the AAC.
/
Boise poster claiming that Boise to AAC is a done deal
![[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=8631973]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/6e41b1bf2b34096dc257931ce5aba809/tenor.gif?itemid=8631973)
