Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
Indiana
Liberty
Wisconsin
Utah
Central Michigan

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: BYU, Coastal Carolina, Alabama, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Marshall, Ohio State/Northwestern, Nevada/San Jose State, and the champs of the PAC-12 and MAC

Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.
Week 8: 24.2% (15 of 62)
Week 9: 12.8% (6 of 47)
Week 10: 31.7% (13 of 41)
Week 11: 21.4% (6 of 28)
Week 12: 22.7% (5 of 22)

Week 12 Thoughts:
-Added the 1-loss and winless columns this week.

-Lot of canceled games, but also a lot of compelling football. In the Big Ten, Ohio State held off the strongest Indiana team we've seen in a long time and Northwestern upset Wisconsin. This leaves both solidly in first in their division and both will have to lose 2 of their final 3 to not make the Big Ten Championship Game (or have too many games canceled).

-A few weeks after beating Virginia Tech with a weird turn of events on a field goal, Liberty lost on a blocked field goal try in their final game vs. an ACC team (ended up going 2 for 3 vs. the ACC). They had an outside chance at a NY6 if they'd won.

-Cincinnati won their road game vs. Central Florida. This was probably the toughest of their remaining conference games and set them up well the rest of the way. In a year where the Sun Belt has a very strong competitor in Coastal Carolina and Marshall is fairly strong in Conference USA, a lot were rooting for an upset. Speaking of Coastal Carolina, they beat Appalachian State in what was probably their toughest conference game. Note: It is not out of the realm of possibility we get 2 Group of 5 conference teams represented in the NY6 this year; if both Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina win out, I think it's very possible.

-Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State and just like that Oklahoma is very much in the running to win the Big 12 again.

-PAC-12 had both Oregon and USC pull off wins. Neither can afford any loses if they want to be in the playoff bowls.

Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it (although probably will be enough).

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck. With limited non-conference games, the committee might be more reluctant to take a 2nd team from the same conference which could help. They need to hope for 2 of the following 3: a) the PAC-12 champ isn't strong. b) no slam dunk #2 teams from one conference in (Notre Dame/Clemson and Alabama/Florida the most dangerous), 3. Big Ten not to get in.


Week 13 Thoughts:
1-loss Iowa State @ Texas (Friday): Both still very much in Big 12 race. Texas is out with a loss. Iowa State maintains pole position with a win.

Undefeated Notre Dame @ North Carolina (Friday): Notre Dame's toughest game left before the ACC Championship.

Auburn @ Undefeated Alabama: Lot of rivalry games on different weeks, but some this week still too.

Undefeated Colorado @ Undefeated USC: Loses matter more in the PAC-12. Both are unbeaten.

Undefeated San Jose State @ 1-loss Boise State: Mountain West only has 2 undefeated left. Likely needs an undefeated team to win this year for a shot at a NY6 bowl.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 3, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 17
Cincinnati
Marshall
Brigham Young
Alabama
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Ohio State
Northwestern
Southern California
Colorado
Oregon
Washington
Buffalo
Kent State
Western Michigan
Nevada
San Jose State

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 5, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 21
Tulsa
Clemson
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Wisconsin
Maryland
Florida Atlantic
Liberty
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Ball State
Central Michigan
Toledo
Boise State
Fresno State
Washington State
Arizona State
Utah
Florida
Texas A&M
Louisiana-Lafayette


Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 4, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 18
Kansas
Penn State
Florida International
Massachusetts
Akron
Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
New Mexico
UNLV
Utah State
California
Stanford
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
Vanderbilt
Louisiana-Monroe

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

That has never been the standard in the Playoff era and IMO shouldn't be. You are going to deny Clemson a shot at the Playoff because Trevor Lawrence got COVID-19? If he's well, Clemson wins that game. And do you really believe Coastal Carolina, Marshall, BYU, Cincinnati, or anyone in the Pathetic 12 could have gone into Notre Dame and beaten them? Why should Clemson be punished because they had to play at Notre Dame? Why should Florida automatically be eliminated because they had to play at Texas A&M? Most of these undefeated teams wouldn't be undefeated if they had to play the usual 2-3 P5 teams do in a normal season. If we go by the "have to be undefeated rule" every year, not only does it mean there would never be more than one team per conference but the big boys would never play each other knowing one loss ends their season. Strength of schedule should matter. It IMO doesn't matter enough. Ohio State scheduled Oklahoma in 2017 and lost and missed the Playoff because they had two losses to Alabama's one. If they had scheduled an FCS team instead of Oklahoma, they probably get in the Playoff.

Is it fair for G5's to go undefeated and miss the Playoff? No. But is it fair for a Clemson to lose one game vs. an undefeated team on the road because their QB is ill? No. The problem is too few teams make the Playoff. Expand the field. And you wonder why I say basketball is the way better college sport.

I’m actually kind of hoping that the PAC 12 champ has a loss so the committee has to make the hard decision between a 1 loss PAC 12 champ, 1 loss P5 non-champs, and undefeated BYU and Cincinnati.

On another note, I wonder if the playoff will consider changing the sites of any of the semi final bowls. Does it make sense to send Notre Dame and Ohio St to Pasadena when they could play in Indianapolis instead?

"Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game"

In that case they would lose to either Illinois, MSU or Michigan....all have losing records.
OSU would be out IMHO.

I keep hearing that Clemson would have beaten Notre Dame if Trevor Lawrence had played. I feel that is a false narrative.

Clemson rushed for 34 yards on 33 attempts. How would that have changed with Lawrence at QB?
Clemson threw for 439 yards on 44 attempts. How much more would it have been with Lawrence at QB and how many yards are needed before it turns into a win?
Notre Dame rushed for 310 yards and threw for 208. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t play defense. How would him playing QB help the defense be more effective?

In a rematch Clemson may very well win and win handily, but I don’t buy this line that Trevor Lawrence playing in the game means Clemson automatically beats Notre Dame in South Bend.

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

That's silly, because it assumes all schedules are comparable. But obviously they aren't.

Take a team like Alabama. If they played 12 games vs Division2 teams, they'd go 12-0. If the played 12 games vs the Kansas City Chiefs, they'd go 0-12. Same team, totally different records purely because of who they played. Those are extreme examples, but it makes the point - that's how much SOS matters, it's everything.

So no, we should not assume that an undefeated team is better than a team that has taken a loss. It's more complicated than that.

(11-23-2020 08:48 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  I keep hearing that Clemson would have beaten Notre Dame if Trevor Lawrence had played. I feel that is a false narrative.

Yes, the Clemson QB played extremely well in that game - IIRC he threw for more yards vs ND than any QB ever has, that's over 1200 games dating back 133 years. And he did it while not throwing an INT.

Of course, the game was decided by a knife's edge, so maybe TL would have been just enough better to win. But as you say, it is by no means a certainty.

(11-23-2020 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

That's silly, because it assumes all schedules are comparable. But obviously they aren't.

Take a team like Alabama. If they played 12 games vs Division2 teams, they'd go 12-0. If the played 12 games vs the Kansas City Chiefs, they'd go 0-12. Same team, totally different records purely because of who they played. Those are extreme examples, but it makes the point - that's how much SOS matters, it's everything.

So no, we should not assume that an undefeated team is better than a team that has taken a loss. It's more complicated than that.

You're exactly right, Quo! SOS is the game changer and I take it one step further with the formula I use. Offensive and defensive numbers matter too. If you're 9-0 with a sos of, let's say, 88, but your ranked 71st offensively and 92nd defensively, don't complain about getting no respect. If you're ranked 2nd offensively and 12th defensively with that same sos of 88, you will get respect. Yes your sos is weak, but you performed like a really good team should against that sos. The whole body of work you've done with your sos is what determines who's contenders and who's pretenders.

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

5-0 or 6-0 is not that impressive. Pac champ going unbeaten is no guarantee they get in. G5 schools don't appear to have faced anywhere close to the same level of competition (although with almost no ooc, that's hard to judge).

(11-23-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

5-0 or 6-0 is not that impressive. Pac champ going unbeaten is no guarantee they get in. G5 schools don't appear to have faced anywhere close to the same level of competition (although with almost no ooc, that's hard to judge).

The PAC had 1 team, maybe a last minute 2, end of the season ranked in the top 25 last year. The AAC had 4 ranked teams. The PAC 12 isn't a better football conference than the AAC and neither is the Big 12 or the ACC and this year the Big Ten.

(11-23-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

5-0 or 6-0 is not that impressive. Pac champ going unbeaten is no guarantee they get in. G5 schools don't appear to have faced anywhere close to the same level of competition (although with almost no ooc, that's hard to judge).

Yeah, 8-0 Cincinnati hasn't been able to pad its resume like the big boys do by playing Rutgers, Kansas, Oregon State, South Carolina, or Syracuse.

Coastal Carolina ranked and undefeated! I've been a fan for a couple of years, good to see.

(11-24-2020 01:17 AM)colohank Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

5-0 or 6-0 is not that impressive. Pac champ going unbeaten is no guarantee they get in. G5 schools don't appear to have faced anywhere close to the same level of competition (although with almost no ooc, that's hard to judge).

Yeah, 8-0 Cincinnati hasn't been able to pad its resume like the big boys do by playing Rutgers, Kansas, Oregon State, South Carolina, or Syracuse.

Its topped that with South Florida, ECU and Temple this week.

(11-24-2020 09:29 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2020 01:17 AM)colohank Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 08:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 02:24 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 01:32 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).

That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.

The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it.

If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.

2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.

Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck.

There's something wrong with this picture:

It requires too much of a leap of faith to select a FBS team that has lost a game to play in a national championship to a team - - unless none of the nation's other most highly-ranked teams that are contending for a playoff spot are undefeated.

Don't get me wrong: If Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State remain undefeated, they will rightly play in the playoff series. However, since Clemson, TAMU, and Florida have all lost a game, they shouldn't be in the playoff series unless there are no undefeated teams in the top 10.

What would that mean? It would mean that, rather than relying on computer ratings, the committee should begin the selection process by selecting the most highly rated undefeated teams in the nation (i.e., the 4 best top 10 or 12 ranked teams that are undefeated - - provided that there are 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams).

That way, the winner of the college football championship will always deserve to be declared the national champion, by virtue of being (a) the only undefeated team among the most highly ranked teams in the nation, or (if there aren't 4 undefeated teams among the top 10 or 12 ranked teams), at least (b) the team that beat the best undefeated team in the country.

In this season, it would mean that, if Alabama and ND and OSU and Oregon and Northwestern and Cincy and BYU all remain undefeated, the first three teams in would be Alabama, ND, and OSU, and the fourth would be the most highly ranked undefeated team (Cincy or BYU or Oregon or Northwestern).

Why? Because the championship team is supposed to be the "best" team, and a team that has lost a game can't be the "best" team if there are other very highly rated teams that haven't lost a game, no matter what a computer says.

The rules should be written to require the four playoff teams to be selected, first, on the basis of their ranking in the top 10 (or top 12), and second, giving preference to any of the top 10 or 12 teams that are undefeated.

It's not only the fair way to run a FB championship - - it's that to award a national "championship" to a team that has been defeated by some other team makes the term "championship" absurd and meaningless.

.

If anyone tries to object that, "well, the NCAA tournament doesn't require undefeated teams to play for the championship," the obvious answer is that so few teams go undefeated throughout an entire season that it would be impossible to apply the same standard to the NCAA tournament.

However, a strong case can be made that too many teams with mediocre W-L records end up in the NCAA tournament field every year, and that's the most direct comparison with the college FB playoffs.

5-0 or 6-0 is not that impressive. Pac champ going unbeaten is no guarantee they get in. G5 schools don't appear to have faced anywhere close to the same level of competition (although with almost no ooc, that's hard to judge).

Yeah, 8-0 Cincinnati hasn't been able to pad its resume like the big boys do by playing Rutgers, Kansas, Oregon State, South Carolina, or Syracuse.

Its topped that with South Florida, ECU and Temple this week.

Why ignore the teams with winning records, UCF, Memphis, SMU. Last week Temple started a 5th string freshman walk on QB. If Russo plays Temple is competitive.

(11-24-2020 01:17 AM)colohank Wrote:  Yeah, 8-0 Cincinnati hasn't been able to pad its resume like the big boys do by playing Rutgers, Kansas, Oregon State, South Carolina, or Syracuse.

Cincy's SOS in Sagarin right now is #91, though SOS rankings, like all computer rankings, are dodgy at best this year particularly for P5 because of limited OOC play.

We will learn in about 10 hours what the CFP makes of all this.

(11-24-2020 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-24-2020 01:17 AM)colohank Wrote:  Yeah, 8-0 Cincinnati hasn't been able to pad its resume like the big boys do by playing Rutgers, Kansas, Oregon State, South Carolina, or Syracuse.

Cincy's SOS in Sagarin right now is #91, though SOS rankings, like all computer rankings, are dodgy at best this year particularly for P5 because of limited OOC play.

We will learn in about 10 hours what the CFP makes of all this.

I am not buying that SOS. Sagarin has these SOS rankings
Wisconsin 7
NW 8
IU 9
PSU 2 (really PSU has played the 2nd toughest schedule this year?)
Purdue 4
Nebraska 1 (OSU, NW, winless PSU, Illinois)
Arizona State 23 (they have played 1 game) and they are ranking schedules for the PAC teams some of which have played 2 games.

Conundrum:

There is no legitimate justification for considering (or is at least highly problematic to consider) a team that has lost a game to be the "best" team in college football (based simply on subjective rankings) if there are other top 12-ranked teams that have finished both the regular season and bowl season with zero defeats.

There is a way to deal with this conundrum:

Switch to a 8-, 12-, or 14-team FBS championship playoff system that would include all undefeated teams ranked in the final regular season poll:

8-team playoff:

Based on the current AP top 25, these 8 teams would be in the 2020 playoffs:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Cincinnati (if undefeated)
BYU (if undefeated)
Oregon (if undefeated)

Round 1 (Quarterfinals; Top 4 NY6 Bowls):

Alabama-Oregon (winner advances and is #1 seed for Round 2)
Notre Dame-BYU (winner advances and is #2 seed for Round 2)
Ohio State-Cincinnati (winner advances and is #3 seed for Round 2)
Clemson-Texas A&M (winner advances and is #4 seed for Round 2)

Round 2 (Semifinals):

#1 vs. #4 seed
#2 vs. #3 seed

Round 3 (Championship Game):

Battle between semifinalists

ADVANTAGES:

*ONLY REQUIRES ADDING ONE (SEMIFINALS) ROUND

*INCLUDES ALL UNDEFEATED TOP 10-RANKED REG. SEASON TEAMS


.

12-team playoff options (option A and option B):

Based on the current AP top 25, these 12 teams would be in the 2020 playoffs:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Florida
Cincinnati (undefeated)
BYU (undefeated)
Oregon (undefeated)
Miami (FL)
Northwestern
Indiana

OPTION A (12 team playoff):

Round 1 (to determine top 8 seeds) (NY6 Bowls):

#1 NY6 Bowl: Alabama-Notre Dame (to determine #1 & #2 seeds for Round 2)
#2 NY6 Bowl: Ohio State-Clemson (to determine #3 & #4 seeds for Round 2)
#3 NY6 Bowl: Texas A&M-Indiana (winner advances and is #5 seed for Round 2)
#4 NY6 Bowl: Florida-Northwestern (winner advances and is #6 seed for Round 2)
#5 NY6 Bowl: Cincinnati-Miami (FL) (winner advances and is #7 seed for Round 2)
#6 NY6 Bowl: BYU-Oregon (winner advances and is #8 seed for Round 2)

Round 2 (Quarterfinals):

#1 vs. #8 seed
#2 vs. #7 seed
#3 vs. #6 seed
#4 vs. #5 seed

Round 3 (Semifinals)

Semifinals Game 1: #1/#8 winner vs. #4/#5 winner
Semifinals Game 2: #2#7 winner vs. #3/#6 winner

Round 4 (Championship Game):

Battle between semifinalists


ADVANTAGE:

*INCLUDES ALL TOP 12-RANKED REGULAR SEASON TEAMS

DISADVANTAGE:

*REQUIRES ADDING A QUARTERFINALS AND SEMIFINALS ROUND

.

OPTION B (12-team playoff):

Round 1 (to determine 4 quarterfinalists) (NY6 Bowls):

#1 NY6 Bowl: Alabama-Indiana (earns #1 seed and Round 2 bye)
#2 NY6 Bowl: Notre Dame-Northwestern (earns #2 seed and Round 2 bye)
#3 NY6 Bowl: Ohio State-Miami(FL)(winner advances; is #3 seed for Round 2)
#4 NY6 Bowl: Clemson-Oregon (winner advances; is #4 seed for Round 2)
#5 NY6 Bowl: Texas A&M-BYU (winner advances; is #5 seed for Round 2)
#6 NY6 Bowl: Florida-Cincinnati (winner advances; is #6 seed for Round 2)

Round 2: To determine two of four semifinalists:

#3 vs. #6 seed
#4 vs. #5 seed

Semifinals:

Game I: #1 seed (Alabama) vs. winner of #3 vs. #6 seed game
Game II: #2 seed (Notre Dame) vs. winner of #4 vs. #5 seed game

Championship Game:

Battle between semifinalists (e.g., Alabama vs. Notre Dame)


ADVANTAGE:

*INCLUDES ALL TOP 12-RANKED REGULAR SEASON TEAMS

DISADVANTAGE:

*REQUIRES ADDING A QUARTERFINALS AND SEMIFINALS ROUND



.

14-Team Playoff:

NOTE: Alabama (#1 seed) and Notre Dame (#2 seed) would get first round byes

Round 1 matchups (NY6 Bowls) (to determine #2 through #6 seeds):

#1 NY6 Bowl: Ohio State-Oklahoma (winner advances and is #3 seed for Round 2)
#2 NY6 Bowl: Clemson-Georgia (winner advances; is #4 seed for Round 2)
#3 NY6 Bowl: Texas A&M-Indiana (winner advances; is #5 seed for Round 2)
#4 NY6 Bowl: Florida-Northwestern (winner advances and is #6 seed for Round 2)
#5 NY6 Bowl: Cincinnati-Miami (FL) (winner advances; is #7 seed for Round 2)
#6 NY6 Bowl: BYU-Oregon (winner advances and is #8 seed for Round 2)

Round 2 (Quarterfinals):

#1 vs. #8 seed (winner advances to semifinals game #1)
#2 vs. #7 seed (winner advances to semifinals game #2)
#3 vs. #6 seed (winner advances to semifinals game #2)
#4 vs. #5 seed (winner advances to semifinals game #1)

Round 3 (Semifinals):

Game I: Battle between winners of #1/#8 and #4/#5 games

Game II: Battle between winners of #2/#7 and #3/#6 games

Round 4 (Championship Game):

Victors of the two semifinal games (e.g., Alabama vs. Notre Dame)

ADVANTAGE:

*INCLUDES ALL TOP 14-RANKED REGULAR SEASON TEAMS

DISADVANTAGE:

*REQUIRES ADDING A QUARTERFINALS AND SEMIFINALS ROUND

(11-24-2020 10:47 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Conundrum:

A team that has lost a game can hardly be considered the "best" team in college football if there are other top 12-ranked teams that have finished both the regular season and bowl season with zero defeats.

Of course they can, and it has happened many times in the past.

(11-24-2020 11:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-24-2020 10:47 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Conundrum:

A team that has lost a game can hardly be considered the "best" team in college football if there are other top 12-ranked teams that have finished both the regular season and bowl season with zero defeats.

Of course they can, and it has happened many times in the past.

Let me state it differently.

There is no legitimate justification for considering (or is at least highly problematic to consider) a team that has lost a game to be the "best" team in college football (based simply on subjective rankings) if there are other top 12-ranked teams that have finished both the regular season and bowl season with zero defeats.