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2020 AP Top 25 Thread
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #301
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
So that just means Northwestern will be ahead of us in the Tuesday rankings?

I like seeing us at #4 in those rankings.
 
11-22-2020 06:35 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
Uc is top 4 in multiple strength of record metrics
 
11-22-2020 07:00 PM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #303
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 07:00 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Uc is top 4 in multiple strength of record metrics

Yea they SHOULD be in the top 4, but do you trust the committee? I believe we should be, I just think the committee will use the data to backup their preconceived notions on why UC shouldn’t be included.
 
11-22-2020 08:07 PM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
Committee is going to send us the ******* west regional again...oh, wait.
 
11-22-2020 08:11 PM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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Post: #305
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 08:11 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Committee is going to send us the ******* west regional again...oh, wait.

Well, we would be playing the top ranked team in the tourney in the second round which is pretty par for the UC course.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 08:38 PM by Bear Catlett.)
11-22-2020 08:37 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #306
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 06:14 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 05:22 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 05:06 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Shows how useless talk of strength of schedule is. We beat UCF on the road, and end up ranked exactly the same as if we had beaten Abilene Christian at home.

It’s not going to move the needle in the AP. It will help, to some extent, in the CFP rankings.

At the end of the video below Heather Dinich explains how the Strength of Record has aligned closely with what the CFP committee has done in the past. It takes a teams record and compares how an average Top 25 team would do against that same schedule. Apparently UC currently ranks 4th in SoR and she believes that the committee will have us higher than some believe based on that.

Personally I’m still expecting the undefeated P5 teams and a couple 1 loss P5 teams to be ahead of us because of the P5 bias, but I don’t believe most of them should be. I’ll believe they will give us our due when I see it but I guess this gives us an argument at least.

https://youtu.be/T72dOFt4R94

From ESPN:
Following its upset win over Wisconsin, Northwestern now has the best Strength of Record in the country. An average top-25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against they faced. Northwestern is just ahead of Alabama, Notre Dame and Cincinnati, respectively.

Link?
 
11-22-2020 09:01 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #307
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 07:00 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Uc is top 4 in multiple strength of record metrics

Links?
 
11-22-2020 09:01 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #308
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:01 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 06:14 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  From ESPN:
Following its upset win over Wisconsin, Northwestern now has the best Strength of Record in the country. An average top-25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against they faced. Northwestern is just ahead of Alabama, Notre Dame and Cincinnati, respectively.

Link?
 
11-22-2020 09:05 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #309
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:01 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 07:00 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Uc is top 4 in multiple strength of record metrics

Links?



 
11-22-2020 09:08 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:05 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 09:01 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 06:14 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  From ESPN:
Following its upset win over Wisconsin, Northwestern now has the best Strength of Record in the country. An average top-25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against they faced. Northwestern is just ahead of Alabama, Notre Dame and Cincinnati, respectively.

Link?

That is a tweet not a link to a real SOS indicator.
 
11-22-2020 09:48 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:08 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 09:01 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 07:00 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Uc is top 4 in multiple strength of record metrics

Links?



Can you post links to the data, the computer rankings of SOS, not tweets?
 
11-22-2020 09:51 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
Hey Fly, what am I chopped liver? SOR is an ESPN stat. Do you google at all?

ESPN SOR Rankings
 
11-22-2020 09:55 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:55 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Hey Fly, what am I chopped liver? SOR is an ESPN stat. Do you google at all?

ESPN SOR Rankings

Shut up and do as you’re told! Now chop chop with the data links.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2020 09:59 PM by Billy_Bearcat.)
11-22-2020 09:58 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 09:55 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Hey Fly, what am I chopped liver? SOR is an ESPN stat. Do you google at all?

ESPN SOR Rankings

Do people buy SOR or SOS. It says SOS is #85. BTW I find that hard to believe especially when anyone is ranking teams that have 2 or 3 games.
 
11-22-2020 10:03 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
LOL OSU is 3 spots behind UC in SOR I am sure the committee will take that into consideration. (NBA to refs yeah lets get the Lakers into the finals and don't worry about Ok City just call fouls)
 
11-22-2020 10:06 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 10:03 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 09:55 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Hey Fly, what am I chopped liver? SOR is an ESPN stat. Do you google at all?

ESPN SOR Rankings

Do people buy SOR or SOS. It says SOS is #85. BTW I find that hard to believe especially when anyone is ranking teams that have 2 or 3 games.

Depends on who you ask but my understanding is SOR is a growing metric considered by the CFP committee. I believe a video someone posted upstream mentioned this.
 
11-22-2020 10:07 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 10:06 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  LOL OSU is 3 spots behind UC in SOR I am sure the committee will take that into consideration. (NBA to refs yeah lets get the Lakers into the finals and don't worry about Ok City just call fouls)

So think in terms of Cincinnati playing OSU's schedule. Is it reasonable to believe that we could be 4-0 playing against that schedule?

Nebraska 1-3
@Penn St 0-5
Rutgers 1-4
Indiana 4-1

On the flip, is it reasonable Ohio St could be 8-0 playing our schedule?
FCS AP
Army 7-2
USF 1-7
@SMU 7-2
Memphis 5-2
Houston 3-3
ECU 2-6
@UCF 5-3

It seems we could be 4-0 as playing Indiana at the Nip is doable - only ranked team at that point. Ohio St most likely 8-0 with our schedule but I would argue SMU and UCF would be tougher road games than at Penn State [I never thought I would say that LOL]. Long story short, our current resumes from a SOR standpoint are comparable.
 
11-22-2020 10:23 PM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #318
RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 10:07 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 10:03 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 09:55 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Hey Fly, what am I chopped liver? SOR is an ESPN stat. Do you google at all?

ESPN SOR Rankings

Do people buy SOR or SOS. It says SOS is #85. BTW I find that hard to believe especially when anyone is ranking teams that have 2 or 3 games.

Depends on who you ask but my understanding is SOR is a growing metric considered by the CFP committee. I believe a video someone posted upstream mentioned this.

Heather Dinich mentions it has aligned in the past closely with what the CFP selection committee has done. Here is the king where she explains it. Long video and the Cincinnati SOR section is at the end but there is tidbits for Cincinnati throughout.

https://youtu.be/T72dOFt4R94
 
11-22-2020 10:26 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 10:06 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  LOL OSU is 3 spots behind UC in SOR I am sure the committee will take that into consideration. (NBA to refs yeah lets get the Lakers into the finals and don't worry about Ok City just call fouls)

How much the committee takes any metric into consideration is anyone's guess. I would assume they use metrics more than the AP pollsters use the lazy eye test. That said, I'm not suffering from any delusions of grandeur but hey, it's nice to just be a part of the conversation. We've been fluttering in and out of the bottom of the Top 25 the past two years so this is gravy.
 
11-22-2020 10:28 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: 2020 AP Top 25 Thread
(11-22-2020 10:23 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 10:06 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  LOL OSU is 3 spots behind UC in SOR I am sure the committee will take that into consideration. (NBA to refs yeah lets get the Lakers into the finals and don't worry about Ok City just call fouls)

So think in terms of Cincinnati playing OSU's schedule. Is it reasonable to believe that we could be 4-0 playing against that schedule?

Nebraska 1-3
@Penn St 0-5
Rutgers 1-4
Indiana 4-1

On the flip, is it reasonable Ohio St could be 8-0 playing our schedule?
FCS AP
Army 7-2
USF 1-7
@SMU 7-2
Memphis 5-2
Houston 3-3
ECU 2-6
@UCF 5-3

It seems we could be 4-0 as playing Indiana at the Nip is doable - only ranked team at that point. Ohio St most likely 8-0 with our schedule but I would argue SMU and UCF would be tougher road games than at Penn State [I never thought I would say that LOL]. Long story short, our current resumes from a SOR standpoint are comparable.

I am not on the committee LOL. What I think doesn't mean chit. I think UC can beat anyone. This team would beat any BK UC team.
 
11-22-2020 10:31 PM
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