.

A survey of the AP top 25 rankings for the 9th, 10th, and 11th weeks of 2015 through 2020 reveals the following:

Between 2015 and 2017, there were, on average ~3 (2-4) non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.

In 2018, there were - - on average - - 4 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.

In 2019, there were - - on average - - 6 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.

In 2020, there were - - on average - - 7 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.

This is not a flash in the pan. It is a trend.

The non-P5s are bringing it, baby!

.


If you don't believe, me, see for yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NCAA_...l_rankings

I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

Ok, let's pretend that 2020 is just an "exception" (i.e., a fluke...)

But if you think it is, how do you explain the steady increase between 2017 and 2019, or the fact that there were twice as many non-P5s in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 in 2019 as there were in 2015, 2016, and 2017?

Was that just an "exception," too?

......................................................................

Denial (or "De' Nile") is not a river in Egypt!

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

People need to stop measuring Cincinnati to Ohio State. There are only a couple programs in the country on any given year capable of beating OSU, particularly in Columbus. Look at UC’s record against the P5 for the past 13-14 years. It is actually very good.

UC was set to play Nebraska this year before everything blew up. That was a winnable game for the Bearcats.

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

Interesting how Liberty is one of the lowest ranked G5s in the Top 25, yet they have two ACC wins out of two, which kinda pokes some holes in your theory.

Ah, but let me guess, Syracuse “doesn’t count” because they’re so weak but still a P5 like Kansas

(11-16-2020 08:11 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  A survey of the AP top 25 rankings for the 9th, 10th, and 11th weeks of 2015 through 2020 reveals the following:

Between 2015 and 2017, there were, on average ~3 (2-4) non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings. 6 different AAC schools, 2 MWC, 1 MAC and 1 SBC

In 2018, there were - - on average - - 4 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings. 3 AAC and 3 MWC teams

In 2019, there were - - on average - - 6 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.4 AAC, 2 MWC and 1 SBC

In 2020, there were - - on average - - 7 non-P5 teams in the week 9-11 AP Top 25 rankings.[/b]3 AAC, 2 Indy, 2 SBC, 1 MWC and 1 CUSA

This is not a flash in the pan. It is a trend.

The non-P5s are bringing it, baby!

.


If you don't believe, me, see for yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NCAA_...l_rankings

Looking at the makeup of the avg. numbers, the SBC and independents are doing a good job of taking advantage of the unique opportunities of 2020 (playing as many games as possible which helps in the polls). Will it continue when everyone plays a standard season, who knows?

ETA: Using the parameters in the OP (AP wks 9-11), 9/11 AAC teams have been ranked, 4/12 MWC, 4/10 SBC, 1/14 CUSA, 1/12 MAC and 2 Indy.

ETA2: If you take it back one more year to the beg. of the CFP, the AAC has had 10 of 11 teams appear in AP polls wks. 9-11.

I see the "rise" of the G5 as the result of a various factors, listed in no particular order.

1. Liberty, BYU and Army have never been this good collectively as we are seeing this season. Army is the weakest of the three but this year's Army team is very solid. BYU is VERY good and Liberty seems like a legit top 25 team.

2. The Big Ten and Pac-12 having gotten a late start this season has benefited the G5 in the polls.

3. As schmolik noted, the G5s have not played as many strong P5 teams this season as has been the case in the past, thus minimizing losses.

4. The American continues to field each year at least three programs (if not four) that can hang with most P5 teams

5. The Sun Belt continues to improve collectively (perhaps the big story of the past few years for G5 football).

(11-16-2020 10:06 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Looking at the makeup of the avg. numbers, the SBC and independents are doing a good job of taking advantage of the unique opportunities of 2020 (playing as many games as possible which helps in the polls). Will it continue when everyone plays a standard season, who knows?

I agree with this, the late entry of some P5 conferences created ranking opportunities for "lower rung" G5 (SBC, CUSA and MAC), and once a team is ranked, poll inertia tends to keep them ranked until they lose.

Nevertheless, Jed has a point that there does seem to be a kind of trend in the past 3 or so years. It seems to me that pollsters are giving G5 more credit for beating other G5 than they had been.

The AAC last year was a good example - the AAC had a fantastic year, they actually ranked slightly ahead of the ACC in the MC, but had really no 'quality' wins against P5 teams, not even for Memphis or Cincy. The high rankings were gained by dominating the other G5 conferences. And the pollsters gave them credit for that.

For example, Memphis and Cincy were both ranked in the final regular season Top 20 last year. Cincy had one win over a P5, a 24-14 win over a 4-8 UCLA team. Memphis also had one P5 win, a 15-10 win over a 4-8 Ole Miss team. The pollsters seem to be willing to give more credit for winning within the G5.

I’d like to think it’s a positive thing. However, the rankings don’t really matter. Here’s why. The only ranking that truly matters is the top 4 of the final CFP ranking and the Power 5 + Notre Dame have autobids (or partial autobids) to the NY6. Let’s say, hypothetically, the final CFP top 25 were the following:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio St
4. Oklahoma
5-25. All non-power schools

In any year, the non-power schools are shut out from national championship contention. In years the CFP semi-finals are the Fiesta/Peach Bowls, the non-power schools have (at best) a chance for 2 NY6 bids - both in the Cotton Bowl. In years the CFP semi-finals are the Cotton/Orange Bowls, the non-power schools have (at best), a chance for 4 NY6 bids - both spots in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls. And, in years the CFP semi-finals are the Rose/Sugar Bowls, the non-power schools have (at best) a chance for 6 NY6 bids - both spots in each of the Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach Bowls.

So, unless the non-power schools get a legitimate chance at the CFP, at best they can theoretically get up to 50% of the NY6 spots.

(11-16-2020 10:36 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’d like to think it’s a positive thing. However, the rankings don’t really matter. Here’s why. The only ranking that truly matters is the top 4 of the final CFP ranking and the Power 5 + Notre Dame have autobids (or partial autobids) to the NY6. Let’s say, hypothetically, the final CFP top 25 were the following:

I disagree with that premise. To me, it is both prestigious and program-building to be ranked in the top 25. Lots of benefits flow from that even if you don't make the playoffs.

Boise, e.g., has built a nationally known football program and has had tons of success, despite never making the BCS title game or CFP playoffs.

.

(11-16-2020 10:36 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  ....the rankings don’t really matter. Here’s why. The only ranking that truly matters is the top 4 of the final CFP ranking...

Poppycock........Balderdash!

(11-16-2020 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 10:06 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Looking at the makeup of the avg. numbers, the SBC and independents are doing a good job of taking advantage of the unique opportunities of 2020 (playing as many games as possible which helps in the polls). Will it continue when everyone plays a standard season, who knows?

I agree with this, the late entry of some P5 conferences created ranking opportunities for "lower rung" G5 (SBC, CUSA and MAC), and once a team is ranked, poll inertia tends to keep them ranked until they lose.

Nevertheless, Jed has a point that there does seem to be a kind of trend in the past 3 or so years. It seems to me that pollsters are giving G5 more credit for beating other G5 than they had been.

The AAC last year was a good example - the AAC had a fantastic year, they actually ranked slightly ahead of the ACC in the MC, but had really no 'quality' wins against P5 teams, not even for Memphis or Cincy. The high rankings were gained by dominating the other G5 conferences. And the pollsters gave them credit for that.

For example, Memphis and Cincy were both ranked in the final regular season Top 20 last year. Cincy had one win over a P5, a 24-14 win over a 4-8 UCLA team. Memphis also had one P5 win, a 15-10 win over a 4-8 Ole Miss team. The pollsters seem to be willing to give more credit for winning within the G5.

Agree, the AAC, and to a lesser degree, the MWC have witnessed greater representation in mid year AP polls. 2020 has seen the biggest change of the selected time frame made up of schools outside the AAC/MWC. Will have to wait and see if mid season recognition carries over in a fully scheduled year. Good on the SBC and Indys for actively pursuing replacements as games were canceled/postponed. Hopefully, schools can capitalize on the increased exposure moving forward.

(11-16-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 10:36 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’d like to think it’s a positive thing. However, the rankings don’t really matter. Here’s why. The only ranking that truly matters is the top 4 of the final CFP ranking and the Power 5 + Notre Dame have autobids (or partial autobids) to the NY6. Let’s say, hypothetically, the final CFP top 25 were the following:

I disagree with that premise. To me, it is both prestigious and program-building to be ranked in the top 25. Lots of benefits flow from that even if you don't make the playoffs.

Boise, e.g., has built a nationally known football program and has had tons of success, despite never making the BCS title game or CFP playoffs.

We (Boise) have benefitted slightly. We don’t make power conference money nor do we get actual CFP consideration. My position will change if the CFP barrier is broken by a school like Cincinnati or BYU this season. Until then, a ranking is a consolation prize. The PAC is still a power conference and their champion is under some consideration for the CFP every season despite their poor rankings and performances. Power status is what matters.

(11-16-2020 11:11 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 10:06 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Looking at the makeup of the avg. numbers, the SBC and independents are doing a good job of taking advantage of the unique opportunities of 2020 (playing as many games as possible which helps in the polls). Will it continue when everyone plays a standard season, who knows?

I agree with this, the late entry of some P5 conferences created ranking opportunities for "lower rung" G5 (SBC, CUSA and MAC), and once a team is ranked, poll inertia tends to keep them ranked until they lose.

Nevertheless, Jed has a point that there does seem to be a kind of trend in the past 3 or so years. It seems to me that pollsters are giving G5 more credit for beating other G5 than they had been.

The AAC last year was a good example - the AAC had a fantastic year, they actually ranked slightly ahead of the ACC in the MC, but had really no 'quality' wins against P5 teams, not even for Memphis or Cincy. The high rankings were gained by dominating the other G5 conferences. And the pollsters gave them credit for that.

For example, Memphis and Cincy were both ranked in the final regular season Top 20 last year. Cincy had one win over a P5, a 24-14 win over a 4-8 UCLA team. Memphis also had one P5 win, a 15-10 win over a 4-8 Ole Miss team. The pollsters seem to be willing to give more credit for winning within the G5.

Agree, the AAC, and to a lesser degree, the MWC have witnessed greater representation in mid year AP polls. 2020 has seen the biggest change of the selected time frame made up of schools outside the AAC/MWC. Will have to wait and see if mid season recognition carries over in a fully scheduled year. Good on the SBC and Indys for actively pursuing replacements as games were canceled/postponed. Hopefully, schools can capitalize on the increased exposure moving forward.

I agree with both Gulfcoastgal and Quo.

.

(11-16-2020 10:36 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’d like to think it’s a positive thing...

Of course you would, and so would we all!

One could argue that, as good as it is for the non-P5, it will even be better for the P5 in the long run.

Why?

Because the rise of the non-P5 teams will force the P5s to stay fit, so that they will be able to ward off the hordes of competitive non-P5 teams in the coming years.

2020 is very much like 1960, when it comes to organized football.

In 1959, the NFL was alone in the world - - the only professional football league on the planet.

However, in 1960, the AFL sprang upon the scene with these teams, and everything suddenly changed.

Boston Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Houston Oilers, Miami Dolphins, New York Titans/Jets, Dallas Texans/Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers, & Oakland Raiders

The new kids on the block (AFL) played a more exciting brand of football, and the red blooded American footoball fan suddenly had a wider range of viewing options...

...and Americans LOVE options!

They weren't everybody's cup of tea, at first, and they were a little 'rough around the edges,' but gradually they started to catch on.

.

The same type of phenomenon is taking place in college football today.

Sure, the Boise States and Marshalls and the Tulsas aren't everybody's cup of tea nowadays, but just you wait...

...before long, they will be the sexy teams of the 2020s, with the college football equivalents of Buck Buchanan, Lenny Dawson, Mike Garrett, and the great Jim Otis (Kansas City fans know who I'm talkin' about!)...jes' you wait and see!

(11-16-2020 08:37 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

Interesting how Liberty is one of the lowest ranked G5s in the Top 25, yet they have two ACC wins out of two, which kinda pokes some holes in your theory.

Ah, but let me guess, Syracuse “doesn’t count” because they’re so weak but still a P5 like Kansas

Not to defend anyone's statement but Syracuse was down to 60 scholarship players in that game with most starters out including their QB. I don't think Cuse could have beat anyone in FBS that weekend and probably not any of the FCS teams that decided to play in the fall.

I think Cincinnati and BYU are both going to be left out of the playoff and here’s why:

Even with 1-loss, I think the SEC, ACC, and Big 10 champs are all locks for playoff berths.

An undefeated PAC 12 champ can climb into the 4th spot

1-loss Oklahoma St could climb its way in there

If ND’s only blemish is a respectable loss in the rematch against Clemson I think they are also in.

I think there are enough P5 contenders in place that Cincinnati and BYU are looking at NY6 bowls but not the coveted playoff semi-final contests.

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

Louisiana beat a top 25 P5 in Iowa St. you cant just say a p5 win dont count, Coastal win over Kansas for the 2nd straight year is still a p5 win. AAC usually has 2 to 3 ranked teams, and BYU or MWC team is ranked. seems to me the major difference in 2020 is the SBC, and Liberty and both SBC teams and Liberty ( 2 p5 wins) have legit earned their spots compared with past standards.

(11-16-2020 12:45 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 08:24 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I would say this year is an exception because most of the non-P5's aren't playing many if any P5's. In most normal years, Coastal Carolina and Marshall would have played more P5's and would have had at least one loss by now (Coastal Carolina did play Kansas but come on, they're Kansas!) BYU normally plays Utah as well as one or more Pac-12 teams, what's the chance BYU goes undefeated in a "normal" year? The records are better but that's because they're not playing the P5's. And I'm not saying G5's never beat P5's but the odds are stacked against them, especially since most games are at the P5's. If Coastal Carolina and/or Marshall are undefeated in a year where they beat multiple legit P5's (Kansas doesn't count), I would be impressed. I'm not even sure Cincinnati would be undefeated if they played a "buy in" game, especially if that buy in game was in Columbus.

Louisiana beat a top 25 P5 in Iowa St. you cant just say a p5 win dont count, Coastal win over Kansas for the 2nd straight year is still a p5 win. AAC usually has 2 to 3 ranked teams, and BYU or MWC team is ranked. seems to me the major difference in 2020 is the SBC, and Liberty and both SBC teams and Liberty ( 2 p5 wins) have legit earned their spots compared with past standards.

Ding Ding!! That's the constant moving goalposts on the G5/P5 narrative. If you beat a P5 it is always, "Well that one doesn't count" or "That was early in the year before that got things together. If you scheduled it now you would lose." OTOH, if you don't schedule a P5 (even in a year like this year where some conferences did not even play anyone OOC) you get docked for not having one on your schedule-- even if you play a G5 school who on paper would be better than that P5 school. Either way, it is a no-win situation for G5 schools.

(11-16-2020 11:44 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think Cincinnati and BYU are both going to be left out of the playoff and here’s why:

Even with 1-loss, I think the SEC, ACC, and Big 10 champs are all locks for playoff berths.

An undefeated PAC 12 champ can climb into the 4th spot

1-loss Oklahoma St could climb its way in there

If ND’s only blemish is a respectable loss in the rematch against Clemson I think they are also in.

I think there are enough P5 contenders in place that Cincinnati and BYU are looking at NY6 bowls but not the coveted playoff semi-final contests.

You may or may not be right about these points, but...


....................................................................................................

Although you should know better than to portray yourself as a narrow-minded idealogue, you appended these words at the end of your post: "Voting Democrat is an act of treason. "

Many smart, patriotic Republicans (George Will, George & Jeb Bush, Romney, the McCains, Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, John Kasich, and thousands more like them) have made it clear that they, like the vast majority of patriotic Democrats, are firm supporters of the Constitution, and have supported Joe Biden for and as President.

If anyone has engaged in treasonous behavior, it is those who have sought to undermine and suppress the constitutionally-guaranteed right to vote, which you yourself have done by attacking those who have simply voted for Democrats.