https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/stat...8440846336

CAT’S OUT THE BAG

But..CNN and MSNBC said....

FLorida released some early numbers this week that I was going to post, but didnt get around to it. Democrats were pimping the numbers because they were 300K votes ahead, whereas 4 years ago they were less than 20K votes ahead at this point. The problem is that during this election cycle, 50% of the democrats were going to vote early by mail, and 80% would vote prior to election day. Only 18% of republicans would vote by mail, and only 45% prior to election day. Given those realities, the democrats are WAY short on early vote numbers they need. Probably the reason hisBidens campaign came out today to tell people dont believe the polls. The polls are way overstated to Biden to get the Trump voters disheartened to not show up. (Ddnt work last time, and wont work this time) Instead, democrats are now concerned that the over inflated numbers will prevent democratic voters from voting.

She is 100% confident Arizona flips. Texas is within a point Ohio is Bidens,Florida is Biden, PA is a wipeout, and NC is Bidens, Michigan is a bloodbath.

Either there is a huge blue wave incoming or she will be disappointed.

(10-17-2020 09:29 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  She is 100% confident Arizona flips. Texas is within a point Ohio is Bidens,Florida is Biden, PA is a wipeout, and NC is Bidens, Michigan is a bloodbath.

Either there is a huge blue wave incoming or she will be disappointed.

She says the polls are inflated, but the polls also say Arizona and Michigan are close, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are tossups. And in Pennsylvania, the polls are all over the place.

No way Ohio goes blue. NO. WAY.

But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Maybe its a bloodbath because they lose the presidential AND senate race.

Hillary's people didn't have a clue where the race actually was.

Guiliani was saying a week before the election they thought they would win Pennsylvania and Michigan and that they had a chance in Wisconsin. On election night Brit Hume said they all dismissed the Trump people when they asked why the press was still talking about North Carolina. The Trump people knew they had North Carolina.

Trump is pulling money out of OH, so OH isnt even that close.

Schumer has been pumping money into MI for the senate race, so that tells you they are worried about Michigan. If John James wins, Trump wins. If JOhn James loses, Trump could still win.

Always gotta have your base fear losing to drive up $, votes, calls, etc .

I imagine both sides have people stoking the fear flames to get their side in action.

I have a question: What makes Ohio more conservative than other MidWest/Rust Belt states like MI, MN, WI, & PA?

I would think w/ all its big cities like Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, & Cincinnati, the populations in those big cities would cancel out the areas that'd be more conservative?

(10-17-2020 10:55 AM)JDTulane Wrote:  Always gotta have your base fear losing to drive up $, votes, calls, etc .

I imagine both sides have people stoking the fear flames to get their side in action.

WHy not show them the actual polls so the leftist base craps their pants now instead of on election night.

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Gotta play some defense. Same reason Trump was in GA last night

(10-17-2020 11:02 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Gotta play some defense. Same reason Trump was in GA last night

GA has two senate races this year. You dont ever take your eye off of that ball.

(10-17-2020 11:07 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 11:02 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Gotta play some defense. Same reason Trump was in GA last night

GA has two senate races this year. You dont ever take your eye off of that ball.

Yeah. Dems are flooding the airwaves with ads, some effective.

And one is a special election, which means it will be a runoff, which is always unpredictable.

(10-17-2020 12:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 11:07 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 11:02 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Gotta play some defense. Same reason Trump was in GA last night

GA has two senate races this year. You dont ever take your eye off of that ball.

Yeah. Dems are flooding the airwaves with ads, some effective.

And one is a special election, which means it will be a runoff, which is always unpredictable.

Osoff has previously been able to generate a sh*t ton of out of state dark money. You dont ever take that lightly. Lindsey Graham is likely safe in SC, but he is in mild freakout mode over how much money his opponent is flooding the airwaves with.

(10-17-2020 12:27 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 12:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 11:07 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 11:02 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:10 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  But they act like they are not going to win in a landslide. Actions speak louder than words. If MI was a bloodbath, why is Biden wasting his time campaigning there?

Gotta play some defense. Same reason Trump was in GA last night

GA has two senate races this year. You dont ever take your eye off of that ball.

Yeah. Dems are flooding the airwaves with ads, some effective.

And one is a special election, which means it will be a runoff, which is always unpredictable.

Osoff has previously been able to generate a sh*t ton of out of state dark money. You dont ever take that lightly. Lindsey Graham is likely safe in SC, but he is in mild freakout mode over how much money his opponent is flooding the airwaves with.

Planned Parenthood was his 2nd biggest donor last time.

(10-17-2020 10:59 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I have a question: What makes Ohio more conservative than other MidWest/Rust Belt states like MI, MN, WI, & PA?

I would think w/ all its big cities like Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, & Cincinnati, the populations in those big cities would cancel out the areas that'd be more conservative?

Can't speak to the rest of the state but SW Ohio...
Greater Cincinnati is still very Catholic especially the west side.
Hamilton County will go blue but will still have a healthy amount of conservative voters especially from the west side. The rest of the Greater Cincinnati counties (Butler, Warren, Clermont) are solid red. They are Trump Country. The Catholics who lived in Hamilton County 30 years ago still live there but their kids moved further out to Butler, Warren and Clermont.

I think the Democrats know blacks are not going to break for them like they did for HRC in 2016. They’re tired of Joe and can’t stand Karamella.