(09-28-2020 12:28 PM)JMad03 Wrote: (09-28-2020 12:17 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: (09-24-2020 03:13 PM)Dukester Wrote: (09-24-2020 03:01 PM)JMad03 Wrote: (09-24-2020 10:15 AM)Dukester Wrote: Spring FCS Championship - 11 auto qualifiers, and only 5 at-large bids
With the limited number of at large bids, it will be much more challenging for the teams in the CAA, MVC,& Big Sky to even make the tournament, including JMU.
Two losses "could" knock you out of the shortened season playoffs. Three losses most likely "would".
Each game will matter more playoff wise this year..
It's going to be tougher for everyone. I seriously doubt conferences like the Southland are going to even be considered for an at large. So they are all competing for 1 spot.
As for the CAA/MVC/Big Sky are probably going for 2 (maybe 3) teams each.
There's no doubt that there will be some pretty upset bubble teams this season. Hopefully we won't be one of those.
I can't imagine one conference getting 3 of the 5.
If one conference got three, that would leave 2 for the rest of the FBS. Even if 2 received 2 that would mean only one is left for the rest of the FCS.
I think the at-large bids will be either 2-1-1-1 or 2-2-1. Big Sky, CAA, and MSV all have to get at least one, but it's impossible for them all to get 2.
The Fall has only 10 AQ. Who is this 11th?
I believe JMAD03 meant 3 teams total in, not 3 At Large. 3 teams in would = 1 AQ team and 2 At Large. He is correct- the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky will all have 2 to 3 teams in- 1 AQ and 1-2 At Large. Those 3 conferences will likely account for 4, if not all 5 of the At Large.
You are right. I should have been a bit clearer. However, I wouldn't say 3 at larges for a big conference is impossible. One reason for this is strength of schedule. Weak conferences in the last few years aren't going to get a ton of credit, while stronger conferences may get the benefit of the doubt.
As a result, it's extremely possible for a 3rd/4th place CAA team would get more consideration than a 2nd/3rd place Southland team.
I think 2 at larges for those I mentioned is much more likely.
Every game is that much more important than ever before. Teams with 2+ losses may be the "bubble" this year. Gonna be a weird one, that's for sure.
-MVFC, Big Sky, Southland have all said 8 conference games.
-VU had 2 of their top pro prospects enter transfer portal- Draft Scout #1 ranked center FCS, and their WR, touted as the best returning WR in the CAA. Did they transfer?
Chances of getting an At Large:
8-0: Theoretically possible could have a team go 8-0 and not get the AQ in the 5? conferences with more than 9 teams. Lock for a MVFC, Big Sky, CAA, Southland. No for Pioneer.
7-1: Lock for MVFC, Big Sky, CAA. Maybe for So-Con, Southland, OVC. No for others.
6-2: Likely for MVFC. Maybe for Big Sky, CAA. No for any others.
5-3: No for anyone..
Here's how the 16 team field breaking down:
-3 MVFC: Likely NDSU, UNI, SDSU
-2 Big SKy: Likely Weber St, 1 of the Montanas
-2 CAA: Likely JMU, maybe VU.
-1 Southland
-1 OVC
-1 So-Con
-1 Big South
-1 Patriot
-1 NEC
-1 MEAC
-1 Pioneer
+1 other: either a 3rd Big Sky or CAA, or a 2nd Southland/OVC/So-Con.