(07-24-2020 11:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:35 AM)texoma Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:21 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:06 AM)texoma Wrote:  Being a top 25 program and a top 25 team are two entirely different things.

Programs are defined by a multitude of things.....budget, facilities, stadium, attendance, TV audience, schedules, on field success etc., over a period of several years.

A school's team changes very year. Every team is different. A lot of teams can be a top 25 team in any given year, but that does not make them a top 25 program.

Having said that, I agree with those that say there are no G5 top 25 programs.

In other words, you have to be in a P5 league or Notre Dame in order to be a Top 25 program.

Boise State has finished in the top 25 13 of the past 18 years. They're tops in the country for wins since 2000. That's not just a top 25 team. It's a top 25 program.

How many games would Boise have won if they had been in the SEC those years?

They'd have won fewer.

Why, though, does the comparision have to go straight to the SEC, the conference that is normally the #1 conference among all P5 leagues? Why not ask how Boise would do in the Pac-12, or the Big 12, or the ACC? I am certain that Boise would have a few Pac-12 titles under their belts over the past 18 years.

In the PAC 12 or Big12 or ACC they would be ...at best middle of the pack. It is difficult to take on quality teams every week. It is not so difficult to get up for one or two big games. Boise goes 6-6 in the PAC 12 and their recruiting drops off and then they are 4-8 or worse.

(07-24-2020 11:10 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Who would put Arkansas over Boise the last 15 years?

This is the argument that Head of the Chicken is better than Tail of the Ox. Boise State's football budget is actually the same as San Jose State's (no joke, check the equity in Athletics report), which is the smack middle of G5 (about 32nd of 65 schools).

Being in a G5 conference they actually have a much better shot at making a bowl game, even a NY6. But if they had to play an SEC, or even a P12, schedule they would be lucky to go 7-5. They simply lack the depth to take the weekly pounding. Chris Petersen would win 11 games at Boise State with much less talent than he had at Washington, where 9-3 was where he was stuck. He did not become a worse coach, but the week after week grind of having to play P5 schools with multiple NFL players on the team, and many others who are close, causes injuries and fatigue (players and coaches) that makes winning 11 games hard. It is why Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson stand out, able to recruit and win year after year in the grind of P5 conferences.

Yes Arkansas is far ahead of Boise State in everything. However it's not a super attractive job, similar to say Indiana in the B1G or Arizona in the P12, in that winning 10 games is really hard with all the competition. It's a place where good coaching can get you fired when Alabama, LSU, Penn State or Ohio State beat you year after year, and yet you are still very good.

Head of the Chicken can look sexy. But a $12m football budget is not going to compete with a $30m one, year in and year out. Even UCF at $20m would find it a grind.

(07-24-2020 10:06 AM)texoma Wrote:  Being a top 25 program and a top 25 team are two entirely different things.

Programs are defined by a multitude of things.....budget, facilities, stadium, attendance, TV audience, schedules, on field success etc., over a period of several years.

A school's team changes very year. Every team is different. A lot of teams can be a top 25 team in any given year, but that does not make them a top 25 program.

Having said that, I agree with those that say there are no G5 top 25 programs.

Perfectly put and I agree fully.

(07-24-2020 11:20 AM)texoma Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 11:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:35 AM)texoma Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:21 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:06 AM)texoma Wrote:  Being a top 25 program and a top 25 team are two entirely different things.

Programs are defined by a multitude of things.....budget, facilities, stadium, attendance, TV audience, schedules, on field success etc., over a period of several years.

A school's team changes very year. Every team is different. A lot of teams can be a top 25 team in any given year, but that does not make them a top 25 program.

Having said that, I agree with those that say there are no G5 top 25 programs.

In other words, you have to be in a P5 league or Notre Dame in order to be a Top 25 program.

Boise State has finished in the top 25 13 of the past 18 years. They're tops in the country for wins since 2000. That's not just a top 25 team. It's a top 25 program.

How many games would Boise have won if they had been in the SEC those years?

They'd have won fewer.

Why, though, does the comparision have to go straight to the SEC, the conference that is normally the #1 conference among all P5 leagues? Why not ask how Boise would do in the Pac-12, or the Big 12, or the ACC? I am certain that Boise would have a few Pac-12 titles under their belts over the past 18 years.

In the PAC 12 or Big12 or ACC they would be ...at best middle of the pack. It is difficult to take on quality teams every week. It is not so difficult to get up for one or two big games. Boise goes 6-6 in the PAC 12 and their recruiting drops off and then they are 4-8 or worse.

In fairness ... hypothetically give Boise State membership in the B12 and its recruiting make significantly improve, allowing the program to be among the top one-third in the league.

(07-24-2020 11:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes Arkansas is far ahead of Boise State in everything.

Boise would beat Arkansas 75% of the years during the 2000's, budgets be damned.

Only one, ND. As the question is worded it's the top 25 football 'programs', not the top 25 in the standings of any given year, and none of those are in the G5 or independents except ND. I wouldn't even put BYU as a top 25 programs.

(07-24-2020 11:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  In fairness ... hypothetically give Boise State membership in the B12 and its recruiting make significantly improve, allowing the program to be among the top one-third in the league.

They'd be by far the northernmost school in a southernish conference. Instead of the best recruits in the MW, the recruiting would lag behind most of the other Big 12 teams (even if their actual recruit rankings improved) and their disadvantage would comparatively increase.

In the Big 12 Boise would be lucky to be another Kansas State (which isn't terrible but nothing to write home about).

(07-24-2020 11:20 AM)texoma Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 11:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:35 AM)texoma Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:21 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 10:06 AM)texoma Wrote:  Being a top 25 program and a top 25 team are two entirely different things.

Programs are defined by a multitude of things.....budget, facilities, stadium, attendance, TV audience, schedules, on field success etc., over a period of several years.

A school's team changes very year. Every team is different. A lot of teams can be a top 25 team in any given year, but that does not make them a top 25 program.

Having said that, I agree with those that say there are no G5 top 25 programs.

In other words, you have to be in a P5 league or Notre Dame in order to be a Top 25 program.

Boise State has finished in the top 25 13 of the past 18 years. They're tops in the country for wins since 2000. That's not just a top 25 team. It's a top 25 program.

How many games would Boise have won if they had been in the SEC those years?

They'd have won fewer.

Why, though, does the comparision have to go straight to the SEC, the conference that is normally the #1 conference among all P5 leagues? Why not ask how Boise would do in the Pac-12, or the Big 12, or the ACC? I am certain that Boise would have a few Pac-12 titles under their belts over the past 18 years.

In the PAC 12 or Big12 or ACC they would be ...at best middle of the pack. It is difficult to take on quality teams every week. It is not so difficult to get up for one or two big games. Boise goes 6-6 in the PAC 12 and their recruiting drops off and then they are 4-8 or worse.

That fact is that how a team would have done if.....is unknowable. Your reasoning is pretty similar to arguments about why some say Notre Dame has been overrated all these years. They played a modest number of "name" opponents that they could prepare extra for while playing cupcakes in between. And when they got the occasional upset (like stopping Oklahoma's 47 game win streak) it just added to the mystique.

What's also clear from this thread is that pretty much the only school that G5 fans can seriously get behind as their standard bearer is Boise State, which might be the school with the least chance of being invited to a P5 conference of all the fairly solid football programs. Because W-L records aren't the only criteria for such an invitation, and aren't even at the top of a list of possible criteria.

Why don't you list the top 25 programs the last 15 years on the field?

Quite a few schools with large budgets and 90k+ in attendance aren't on that list.

You're going to have an issue keeping Boise off that list.

Here's a good start:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-foo...o6e4m37/25

Currently Notre Dame, UCF, and Boise St.

Boise would have beaten Arkansas on a consistent basis if they played every year this past decade.

I was curious how some of the top non-P5 teams compare to the metric of Final AP appearances. Using the teams listed in the OP and going back the previous ten years [seems a reasonable number to determine recent trends]...

7 Boise St.
5 UCF
3 Cincinnati, Memphis
2 Navy
1 App St.
1 SDSU
0 BYU

Since other teams [Houston and Utah St. for example] have finished in the AP poll that are not listed, here is how the conferences stack up over the same time span [less than 10 seasons noted]...

15 American Athletic [7 seasons]
12 Mountain West
6 Conference USA
2 Mid-American
1 Sun Belt

IMO, if you want to see the difference between the P5 and the G5, look at what Scott Frost and Tom Herman are doing at their current coaching jobs versus what they did in their G5 stints. I used to think the difference between beating a couple of ranked or almost-ranked P5s a year and playing a P5 schedule weren't that different, but I'm not so sure now.

I mean, it's not like either Frost or Herman don't have access to better players now than they did at their G5 coaching stops. I'm not confident at all you could put any G5 program as is in a P5 league and they'll be ranked consistently. With P5 TV riches maybe a few could, but it's hard to say there's a G5 that's a top-25 program now.

(07-24-2020 12:02 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 11:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes Arkansas is far ahead of Boise State in everything.

Boise would beat Arkansas 75% of the years during the 2000's, budgets be damned.

The past is the past. Over a decade now. The budget gap was much smaller then, in part because Kustra paid Petersen more than G5 coaches typically get, and he helped negotiate extra money from sponsorship and TV G5 don't get. They still have some lingering value from that. But P5 budgets and revenue have skyrocketed since 2011 when the TV contracts doubled and doubled again. SEC distributions of $50m plus make Boise State's $6m or so seem minuscule. The American schools are strugglling to stay attached to the bottom of P5 in resources, mostly doing so by piling up huge debt.

Where I give Kustra and Boise State to this day credit, they never spent beyond their means and have kept the school subsidy to around 25% of the program. Most G5 it's well above 50%.

But they have no chance in the long run against a flagship SEC school. A back to back to back schedule of Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and say Florida or South Carolina, would just deplete Boise State to the point they'd be cannon fodder for Vandy to clean up on.

(07-24-2020 01:00 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 12:02 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 11:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes Arkansas is far ahead of Boise State in everything.

Boise would beat Arkansas 75% of the years during the 2000's, budgets be damned.

A back to back to back schedule of Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and say Florida or South Carolina, would just deplete Boise State to the point they'd be cannon fodder for Vandy to clean up on.

Complete nonsense.

(07-24-2020 12:50 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  IMO, if you want to see the difference between the P5 and the G5, look at what Scott Frost and Tom Herman are doing at their current coaching jobs versus what they did in their G5 stints. I used to think the difference between beating a couple of ranked or almost-ranked P5s a year and playing a P5 schedule weren't that different, but I'm not so sure now.

I mean, it's not like either Frost or Herman don't have access to better players now than they did at their G5 coaching stops. I'm not confident at all you could put any G5 program as is in a P5 league and they'll be ranked consistently. With P5 TV riches maybe a few could, but it's hard to say there's a G5 that's a top-25 program now.

To be fair, Frost is entering only Year 3 and Herman Year 4. Herman is probably under more heat to get it done this season than Frost. Not having P5 success is not lone to G5 coaches that have moved up in ranks. I always use the example of Bret Bielima. He had Wisconsin consistently good and ranked and chose to go to Arkansas and crapped the bed. I can give you two examples of coaches from my alma mater - Brian Kelly and Mark Dantonio - that have been pretty successful at Notre Dame and Michigan. P.J. Fleck looks to be building a solid program at Minnesota. There are other examples...

When the Big 12 was expanding 4 years ago, I looked up some data on football rankings of the 11 candidates:

EADA database as of 7/27/16
ranked in AP ranked 1-10 final top 10
BYU 242 56 3
USF 26 4 -
UCF 11 1 1
Cincinnati 41 12 1
Uconn 6 - -
Memphis 6 - -
Houston 184 48 7
Tulane 59 17 2
SMU 161 73 6
Rice 70 17 4
Air Force 78 20 2
Colorado St. 43 5 -

I checked on a couple of other schools who had made the final top 10:
Boise St. 127 57 4
Miami 42 2 2

Same data for 1996-2015 only
ranked in AP ranked 1-10 final top 10
BYU 94 16 1
USF 26 4 -
UCF 11 1 1
Cincinnati 36 12 1
Uconn 6 - -
Memphis 6 - -
Houston 32 3 1
Tulane 11 3 1
SMU - - -
Rice - - -
Air Force 18 - -
Colorado St. 31 - -

If we are going to guess how Boise State would do in a P5 league, let's use at least a twinge of logic. Boise State is in Idaho. They could have the profile of Ohio State and still not get into the SEC because they are in Idaho.

Compare them to the Pac-12 instead. Then we are at least using some common sense.

Call me a homer but Cincinnati would hold their own against the ACC and would be better than "middle of the pack", or 6-6 most years as suggested. Louisville had some off the field issues that caused them to stumble in 2018 but for the most part they have finished 9-4 or 8-5 every other year since they have been in the conference. They even had a Heisman QB and won a share of the Atlantic Division. UC has done very well overall against ACC games this past decade. I know you say it is a "one off" or the ACC team didn't want to be there--- whatever.

I can only imagine how well a UC, UCF, or Houston could have done in a P5 if they had better resources to keep coaches or had the P5 carrot to dangle in front of recruits.

(07-24-2020 01:00 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 12:02 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(07-24-2020 11:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yes Arkansas is far ahead of Boise State in everything.

Boise would beat Arkansas 75% of the years during the 2000's, budgets be damned.

The past is the past. Over a decade now. The budget gap was much smaller then, in part because Kustra paid Petersen more than G5 coaches typically get, and he helped negotiate extra money from sponsorship and TV G5 don't get. They still have some lingering value from that. But P5 budgets and revenue have skyrocketed since 2011 when the TV contracts doubled and doubled again. SEC distributions of $50m plus make Boise State's $6m or so seem minuscule. The American schools are strugglling to stay attached to the bottom of P5 in resources, mostly doing so by piling up huge debt.

Where I give Kustra and Boise State to this day credit, they never spent beyond their means and have kept the school subsidy to around 25% of the program. Most G5 it's well above 50%.

But they have no chance in the long run against a flagship SEC school. A back to back to back schedule of Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and say Florida or South Carolina, would just deplete Boise State to the point they'd be cannon fodder for Vandy to clean up on.

Exactly....you have said it well.