(07-06-2020 09:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: In my mind, the Big East and college football’s P5 are #1-6.
The AAC is 7th and A10 is 8th. This is a real gray area. I tend to think of the AAC as the bottom of the top and the A10 as the top of the middle.
Beyond that you have to ask of the rest of the conferences these 2 questions:
In the past 20 yrs are you averaging more than 1.20 bids per year? If yes, you are a mid major.
If, no what is the average seed you’ve received in that 20 yr span? These are your low majors and you can rank them based on their average seed.
I haven't looked at 20 years, but for the 1-8 seeds (that is, the ones bracketed as the favored team in their first game), for the last 5 years:
19.4% were from the ACC
15.6% were from the Big 10
15.0% were from the Big 12
13.1% were from the SEC
10.6% were from the Big East
8.8% were from the PAC-12
6.3% were from the AAC
3.8% were from the A10
3.1% were from the MWC
2.5% were from the WCC
0.6% each were from the MAC, MVC and Southern
That's another indication of the source of the notion that the Big East is "in amongst" the P5 and the AAC really isn't quite there, but also that the AAC is appreciably closer than the other three multi-bid conferences below the P5.
Note that I used current membership, rather than membership at the time, but that only affects one appearance (Wichita State 2015) ... on membership at the time, the AAC would be 5.6% and the MVC 1.3%.
This can also be adjusted on a "percentage of high seeds per school" basis to adjust for conference size:
1.50% per Big 12 school
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1.38% per ACC school (-0.22%)
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1.12% per Big 10 school (-0.26%)
1.06% per Big East school (-0.06%)
0.94% per SEC school (-0.12%)
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0.73% per PAC-12 school (-0.21%)
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0.52% per AAC school (-0.21%)
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0.27% per A10 school (-0.25%)
0.26% per MWC school (-0.01%)
0.25% per WCC school (-0.01%)
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0.06% each per MVC or SoCon school (-0.19%)
0.05% per MAC school (-0.01)
In terms of implicit grouping analysis, the 0.19% break between the WCC and the three conferences with a single high bid over five years has got to be respected as a category break, and then that implies the breaks as shown. If you cannot have a group of 1, then the Big12 and ACC are your High Majors, the Big 10, Big East and SEC your Majors, the A10, MWC, WCC your High Mid Majors, and what you want to do with your ...
High Majors / Majors / PAC-12 / AAC / High Mid-Majors / Mid-Majors
... is entirely arbitrary, the AAC and Pac-12 are basically fairly evenly spaced between the High Mid Majors and the Majors.
The grouping analysis would be much easier if the PAC-12 would get its sh!t together, because then the AAC could be classified in it's own "Tweener Major" group.
OK, then that's Basketball done. Is Hockey next?
Oh, wait, you want a proportional implicit grouping, not an additive one? OK, the next one down as a percent of the one in front of it:
1.50% per Big 12 school
1.38% per ACC school (92%)
1.12% per Big 10 school (81%)
1.06% per Big East school (95%)
0.94% per SEC school (87%)
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0.73% per PAC-12 school (76%)
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0.52% per AAC school (71%)
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0.27% per A10 school (52%)
0.26% per MWC school (96%)
0.25% per WCC school (96%)
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0.063% each per MVC or SoCon school (24%)
0.052% per MAC school (83%)
Setting the split at 80% or lower yields the above splits, where the Big12, ACC, Big Ten, Big East and SEC are High Majors, PAC-12 is a Major, AAC is whatever you want to call it, A10, MWC and WCC are High Mid-Majors and then you get into the ranks of the regular Mid-Majors where favored seeds are so rare that it's not of much use ranking them.