(05-28-2020 11:01 AM)Potomac Wrote:  The MVFC gets the benefit of the doubt nationally because:

1) They win in the playoffs consistently. They routinely have champions, runner ups, semifinalists and quarterfinalists. Multiple. Every year for at least the 2010s decade. There's no disputing they're the best playoff conference in FCS for the past 10 seasons.

2) They tend to perform better overall out of conference and also tend to schedule more challenging OOC opponents. They also beat their FBS opponents at least a bit more often (I admittedly haven't looked up the comparative numbers but i'm going off of memory here). You could make an argument there's better east coast based FBS teams then midwest and I would agree. That results in a greater gap in talent in these match ups and fewer upsets.

3) The CAA has a bad habit of getting a team into the top 10 rankings and then that team immediately loses and can't stay high nationally with any consistency. Last year was a perfect example. Our middle and low end teams are so good that they're occasionally upsetting our top teams. This leads to an unclear top 4 year in and year out. The MVFC top 4 rarely lose to teams outside of that top 1/3 of their conference. They consistently beat the valley teams they're "supposed to beat".

Just look at the past 5 years of FCS playoff play. How many QF, SF, Runner up and Champions does the MVFC have?
Now how many does the CAA have? Case closed. The CAA is good and was the best of the 2000s decade, but we did collectively drop off SOME in the 2010s. The prevalence of FBS programs in the east coast poaching talent doesn't help.

Huh? If we throw out ndsu and jmu, in the last 10 years both the caa and mvc have had two other teams in the finals....Youngstown and Illinois st for them, Towson and Delaware for caa.

Caa has also had Maine and New Hampshire in the final four the last few years. Not sure when Villanova last made it that far. Or Richmond for that matter. Both in last five years have made the quarters I’m pretty sure.

As for mvc, South Dakota State and northern Iowa have made one semi run each I believe. This is all going off memory, but I’m not sure I see where the mvc is performing better than the caa.

(05-28-2020 08:17 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  a lot of confidence on here but if we all put the purple koolaid down for just a second, and acknowledge that we all know that the Dukes are the best...

What makes anybody think we have a top 5 team let alone a National Championship contender... or even a quarterfinals contender? We don't even know who will be under center in September.

I think that is the key. I don't see CJ or Gage leading us to the promised land. We need a transfer.

Gage is ready.

(05-28-2020 08:17 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  a lot of confidence on here but if we all put the purple koolaid down for just a second, and acknowledge that we all know that the Dukes are the best...

What makes anybody think we have a top 5 team let alone a National Championship contender... or even a quarterfinals contender? We don't even know who will be under center in September. I mean I think we have the parts to make a run but I doubt I'll be booking a hotel in Frisco any time soon even with the free cancellation. I think Hero's poll is generous. The coaches poll is lol. MVC is absolutely the strongest preseason conference to me

Can you name 8 other teams that are more likely?

(05-28-2020 09:51 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(05-28-2020 08:17 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  a lot of confidence on here but if we all put the purple koolaid down for just a second, and acknowledge that we all know that the Dukes are the best...

What makes anybody think we have a top 5 team let alone a National Championship contender... or even a quarterfinals contender? We don't even know who will be under center in September. I mean I think we have the parts to make a run but I doubt I'll be booking a hotel in Frisco any time soon even with the free cancellation. I think Hero's poll is generous. The coaches poll is lol. MVC is absolutely the strongest preseason conference to me

Can you name 8 other teams that are more likely?

Let's see...North Dakota State....hmmmm….nope nobody else.

(05-29-2020 12:51 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(05-28-2020 09:51 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(05-28-2020 08:17 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  a lot of confidence on here but if we all put the purple koolaid down for just a second, and acknowledge that we all know that the Dukes are the best...

What makes anybody think we have a top 5 team let alone a National Championship contender... or even a quarterfinals contender? We don't even know who will be under center in September. I mean I think we have the parts to make a run but I doubt I'll be booking a hotel in Frisco any time soon even with the free cancellation. I think Hero's poll is generous. The coaches poll is lol. MVC is absolutely the strongest preseason conference to me

Can you name 8 other teams that are more likely?

Let's see...North Dakota State....hmmmm….nope nobody else.

pretty much. I mean in 2018 we didn't go because we couldn't score enough points on offense... that and some bone headed staff on cruise control but hey there are some questions about how we're going to be scoring points. Quarters is not a sure thing. Heck making the playoffs is not a sure thing. Let's start by hoping for that! We could go 7-4 and be a bubble team. Will we even play all 11 games? How does our resume stack up against a team that had 2 games cancelled because XYZ University did not have football in the fall of 2020. Anything is up for debate.

(05-28-2020 04:32 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(05-28-2020 11:01 AM)Potomac Wrote:  The MVFC gets the benefit of the doubt nationally because:

1) They win in the playoffs consistently. They routinely have champions, runner ups, semifinalists and quarterfinalists. Multiple. Every year for at least the 2010s decade. There's no disputing they're the best playoff conference in FCS for the past 10 seasons.

2) They tend to perform better overall out of conference and also tend to schedule more challenging OOC opponents. They also beat their FBS opponents at least a bit more often (I admittedly haven't looked up the comparative numbers but i'm going off of memory here). You could make an argument there's better east coast based FBS teams then midwest and I would agree. That results in a greater gap in talent in these match ups and fewer upsets.

3) The CAA has a bad habit of getting a team into the top 10 rankings and then that team immediately loses and can't stay high nationally with any consistency. Last year was a perfect example. Our middle and low end teams are so good that they're occasionally upsetting our top teams. This leads to an unclear top 4 year in and year out. The MVFC top 4 rarely lose to teams outside of that top 1/3 of their conference. They consistently beat the valley teams they're "supposed to beat".

Just look at the past 5 years of FCS playoff play. How many QF, SF, Runner up and Champions does the MVFC have?
Now how many does the CAA have? Case closed. The CAA is good and was the best of the 2000s decade, but we did collectively drop off SOME in the 2010s. The prevalence of FBS programs in the east coast poaching talent doesn't help.

Huh? If we throw out ndsu and jmu, in the last 10 years both the caa and mvc have had two other teams in the finals....Youngstown and Illinois st for them, Towson and Delaware for caa.

Caa has also had Maine and New Hampshire in the final four the last few years. Not sure when Villanova last made it that far. Or Richmond for that matter. Both in last five years have made the quarters I’m pretty sure.

As for mvc, South Dakota State and northern Iowa have made one semi run each I believe. This is all going off memory, but I’m not sure I see where the mvc is performing better than the caa.

ok, so here's the data for the last 10 years between CAA and MVC. Hopefully my quick eye-balling and tabulating didn't miss anything.

I'm throwing out all games involving JMU or NDSU and any conference head to head matchups.
this is strictly how each performed against outsiders other than the 2 juggernauts.

Total Record:

CAA 32-25
MVC 26-14

Lost in QF Round:

CAA 3 (Maine 2011, ODU 2012, Villanova 2014)
MVC 2 (Ill State 2012, No Iowa 2011)

Lost in SF Round

CAA 5 (Villanova 2010, UNH 2013, UNH 2014, Richmond 2015, Maine 2018)
MVC 2 (SD State 2017, SD State 2018)

Lost in Final

CAA 2 (Delaware 2010, Towson 2013)
MVC 2 (Illinois St 2014, Youngstown 2016)


the data does not support the MVC, other than NDSU obviously, being superior to the CAA or some great SEC like conference.

If anything, it shows beyond any doubt the CAA should get more of the benefit the doubt.

and yes, i know, MVC apologists will come on here and say, "but MVC teams always get knocked out by NDSU". Fine, CAA teams have on numerous occassions eaten their own. Including JMU beating UNH, Villanova, Delaware in the playoffs. at the same time, the reason the CAA has more games and losses, is because it's teams are advancing farther in the bracket than the MVC. The QF and SF appearances reflect that. And many of those losses in later rounds by CAA teams were also at the hands of the NDSU dynasty.

again, the factual data simply does not support always giving MVC the benefit of the doubt.

NDSU had a Freshman QB and ranked in the top 2. I don't see any reason why we can't have an offense just as good. Our entire RB room is coming back and will be stronger than ever. OLine is the most important piece to our offense and they should still be a very tough unit this season.
I think losing the pieces we did on defense is why they placed us so low. I don't expect them to lose much of a step, but I do think it may take more time before they are where they hit their potential.
The issue I have is when NDSU reloads they get put in the top 2. We reload and we should be lucky to be a top 5 team? I think we've done enough to prove this program isn't going anywhere.
That being said, I am overjoyed that they placed us that low. I actually was hoping they would put us lower. I hope they keep underrating this team. I don't see why we can't make it back this year. We don't need a star QB to win it all- just a guy that isn't going to make bad decisions and will get the ball where it needs to go. I don't care which guy it is as long as that guy gets it done. I have faith in our coaching staff to get have that guy ready when the season starts.

Yeah NDSU had more question marks than we do and was still #2 last year. But of course they were the defending back to back champs and had won seven out of eight, not defending runner ups who won one of the last four. And considering 2018 I guess we haven’t shown the ability to reload without missing a beat every single year like they have. With our running backs and defense though, we’ll be fine. Gage or CoJo stepping up to replace a star like Nooch could turn out similar to Schor replacing Vad.

Hmm, I remember there was a similar CAA vs. MVFC discussion from last year regarding playoff performance where stats were compiled. It doesn't include last season, and the sampling is a little different, but these stats skew pretty heavily towards the MVFC.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-876401-post-16...id16105736

Good points Duke Dawg, but one clear trend there is that the CAA's success was more so in the first half of the decade and folks have short memories.

Based on your stats, in the past five years:

QF loss:
CAA 0
MVFC 1 (you forgot UNI this past season)

SF loss:
CAA 2
MVFC 2

Runner up:
CAA 0
MVFC 1

(05-29-2020 09:48 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Good points Duke Dawg, but one clear trend there is that the CAA's success was more so in the first half of the decade and folks have short memories.

Based on your stats, in the past five years:

QF loss:
CAA 0
MVFC 1 (you forgot UNI this past season)

SF loss:
CAA 2
MVFC 2

Runner up:
CAA 0
MVFC 1

right, but the question originally said "decade". so i went back a decade.

but if you go 2 years past the '5', and add in 2013 and 2014, you had in 2 more SF appearances for the CAA and another F appearance.

is 5 years the right sample size? 7? 10?

who knows. what IS for sure is that over time the MVC and the CAA have both proven to be the dominant conferences. In any year, it might favor one over the other, but BOTH should be given the benefit of the doubt as data and head to head with its best programs (JMU and NDSU) shows this to be true.

so, the whole thing that started this is preseason polls ranking MVC teams as 1, 2, and 3.

and my point is that is nonsense (as far as meaningless preseason polls can be) to think the 3 best teams in the country are in the same conference when time has shown that CAA squads at least, if not Big Sky as well, are more than their equal and deserve more respect and credit going into season.

one can draw the conclusion of why the MVC gets that "respect and credit" is solely due to NDSU. NDSU is not the MVC. They are NDSU. And have clearly more than earned whatever mountain they get. the rest of the league is just like everyone else in every other league.

FAKE NEWS!

My “conspiracy theory” take on this is that it’s due to the influence of MVC and NDSU media who are constantly trying to hype the MVC.

If you look at most FCS articles written, a high percentage of them have writers either directly involved with NDSU/MVC or in that geography.

Hyping the MVC has two benefits for them:
- increase the odds of a top seed
- increase the odds of more teams in the playoffs.

(05-29-2020 10:14 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  FAKE NEWS!

My “conspiracy theory” take on this is that it’s due to the influence of MVC and NDSU media who are constantly trying to hype the MVC.

If you look at most FCS articles written, a high percentage of them have writers either directly involved with NDSU/MVC or in that geography.

Hyping the MVC has two benefits for them:
- increase the odds of a top seed
- increase the odds of more teams in the playoffs.

yea, i don't know if they purposely do it are just get sucked into the hype and it snowballs. That's typical of lots of things.

but when you analyze data, it's just not there. outside of the NDSU, the MVC isn't any different than any other league.

oh, and this is a pretty good data point from our perspective:

JMU 28 Youngstown 14
JMU 51 SD State 16
JMU 17 Northern Iowa 0

the best of the best non-NDSU MVC teams have been boatraced by JMU.
We've had better challenges in the CAA all 3 of those years.

That is very true. 3 over by halftime games head to head in the playoffs vs non-NDSU MVFC teams. Meanwhile, we've had many losses and closer games against our own regular season CAA teams.

I think if the recent YSU, SDSU and UNI teams played the recent tougher CAA teams, they'd lose those games more than half the time.

(05-29-2020 10:55 AM)Potomac Wrote:  That is very true. 3 over by halftime games head to head in the playoffs vs non-NDSU MVFC teams. Meanwhile, we've had many losses and closer games against our own regular season CAA teams.

I think if the recent YSU, SDSU and UNI teams played the recent tougher CAA teams, they'd lose those games more than half the time.

Shhh ... don’t tell Dukester, he’ll pull out some Sagarin ratings to “prove” how powerful the MVC is. Every year we have some MVC defenders here who seem to think they should get the top 3 or 4 seeds.

Slightly drifting - but “Sagarin says” ODU at 1-11 with only a 3 point victory over Norfolk St was somehow better than Stony Brook at year end.

not really relevant to this thread, but the stats made me go look up our playoff record since 2004 when "everything changed"

we've made the playoffs 11 out of 16 years with 5 semifinals and 4 championship games.

we have an overall playoff record in that time of 18-9.

(05-29-2020 10:34 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(05-29-2020 10:14 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  FAKE NEWS!

My “conspiracy theory” take on this is that it’s due to the influence of MVC and NDSU media who are constantly trying to hype the MVC.

If you look at most FCS articles written, a high percentage of them have writers either directly involved with NDSU/MVC or in that geography.

Hyping the MVC has two benefits for them:
- increase the odds of a top seed
- increase the odds of more teams in the playoffs.

yea, i don't know if they purposely do it are just get sucked into the hype and it snowballs. That's typical of lots of things.

but when you analyze data, it's just not there. outside of the NDSU, the MVC isn't any different than any other league.

oh, and this is a pretty good data point from our perspective:

JMU 28 Youngstown 14
JMU 51 SD State 16
JMU 17 Northern Iowa 0

the best of the best non-NDSU MVC teams have been boatraced by JMU.
We've had better challenges in the CAA all 3 of those years.

To be fair though, it's tough to make that comparison. Playoffs are obviously a different beast due to the stakes plus of course way more CAA teams get a crack at us and might catch us on an off day or looking past them. Non-playoff Stony Brook took us to OT, would anyone really say they were better than UNI last year? Or that the 2017 ticks were far better than SDSU?

I think right now it's pretty fair to assume NDSU and JMU should be top two until proven otherwise each year. Tough to take that to the point of "other CAA teams > other MVFC teams because JMU plays more close games against other CAA teams" though. In 2018 NDSU beat 5-3 CAA Delaware 38-10 but 3-5 MVFC YSU 17-7. In 2015 they smoked the ticks in the semis but had a couple tight MVFC wins and a loss in the regular season. We certainly seem to get more shots at non-NDSU MVFC teams in the playoffs than NDSU does at non-JMU CAA teams, which isn't really a positive for the CAA either.

Plus CAA teams always get us along with the wild card of awful CAA refs

https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...op-25-2020

Athlon just put theirs out. Looks like everyone is high on UNI. Not sure how Weber can be 3 especially after the Qb went to Towson.

One things for sure our game against Nova is going to be a blast

(06-03-2020 06:52 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  https://athlonsports.com/college-footbal...op-25-2020

Athlon just put theirs out. Looks like everyone is high on UNI. Not sure how Weber can be 3 especially after the Qb went to Towson.

One things for sure our game against Nova is going to be a blast

Interesting that this poll gives no love to UD, not that they’ve earned it.
Then again, no team in preseason has earned anything, including our beloved Dukes.

JMU’s D is superb, and the OL should be as strong as it’s ever been. JMU’s running game should be an absolute monster. The biggest question to me, and hopefully we’ll find out soon, can the new QB and WR and TE play compete at an elite level? If the passing game is solid, JMU will make noise in the playoffs. I imagine those of us who post on this board have similar thoughts.

The biggest question remains; when (or will) the season start, and if changes are made, what kind of compromises will have been made to the schedule? Hopefully JMU will still get an opportunity to wax those blue chickens to start another run towards Frisco.