(05-20-2020 12:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: My personal preference is 18-20 for both the Big Ten and SEC:
The SEC can have Texas, Texas Tech, Clemson, and Florida St
The Big Ten can take Kansas, Oklahoma, ND, and Pitt (unless the SEC wants to let us have Missouri)
I also really like a 20 team set up that would be those 5 plus Iowa St or Colorado
For that to happen the first move has to be that of the Big 10 in landing Pitt and N.D.. Only then will ESPN consider protecting Clemson and Florida State as an investment in the SEC as opposed to using them to anchor value in the ACC. This is not a scenario where the SEC has first strike capability since ESPN owns us both. Texas would be the value addition complimented by the content multiplication moves of Clemson and F.S.U. which wouldn't be adding value, but which would make the whole conference more compelling as a TV product so some value there. So Pitt or Virginia would have to be the 2nd school with Notre Dame and personally I think Virginia would be preferred since Penn State carries most of Pennsylvania.
If Missouri wanted to join Kansas in the Big 10 where is your slot left then for Oklahoma?
I'm not so sure that Notre Dame, Virginia and North Carolina wouldn't be the preferred grab of the Big 10. If so then does Kanas really deliver what they want as #4 or would that be Pitt / Georgia Tech or Duke? I know the Big 10 wants football umph but the ability to move into the Northern Mid Atlantic with 3 AAU's and Notre Dame might be hard for their presidents to pass up.
So at 18 perhaps you get just that: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Virginia and do so more for market and political reasons than for sports reasons. Right now the Big 10 has a lot of representation in the House with regards to grant disbursement. With the Northern Midwest bleeding House seats acquisitions in North Carolina and Virginia re leverages representation in such a way as to keep the Big 10 in business on that angle as those representatives will be inclined to look after their own as much as is allowable and possible.
Should that happen the SEC would be in position to take Texas and Oklahoma and stop profitably at 16 or to protect their branding and add Clemson and Florida State to that mix locking other interested parties out of the Deep South by wrapping up the most appealing brands.
The Big 10 presidents get what they want and the SEC AD's get what profits them most.
That all said, what would be likeliest to happen should the Big 10 strike first taking those 4 is that ESPN would give pro rata to N.C. State and Virginia Tech to move to the SEC to cover the moves of those lost to FOX. They would then go after all of the rights in the Big 12 and would look to use Clemson and Florida State to boost the value of that conference.
Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Florida State with perhaps Pitt or B.Y.U. to head to the Big 12 creating two 16 team conferences:
The New Big 12 would set up like this:
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Iowa State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
The SEC would set up like this:
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
The Big 10 would look like this:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
The PAC 12 would stay at 12.
That's 62 schools in an upper tier.
What's more is that Texas and Oklahoma are supplemented rather than forced to leave what they are comfortable with, and ESPN gets control of the Big 12 and SEC and the year end hot pairings of Florida/FSU, Georgia/Ga Tech, South Carolina/Clemson, and Kentucky/Louisville all remain in house with ESPN as year end rivalry games between the Big 12 and SEC and the renewal of Pitt/WVU in the Big 12. Missouri/Kansas and Texas/Texas A&M add two key games to that rivalry. The Sugar Bowl is then amplified as part of that rivalry. And it becomes a better watched bigger bonanza than any current ACC/SEC rivalry.