Studies seem to indicate that if you are around 21 years old, your chances of dying of CV19 once infected are extremely small, about 1 in 300. And for most its actually lower than that, because of the relatively small number of such people who have died, most had significant underlying health conditions - cancer, asthma, heart disease, morbid obesity, or diabetes. The article linked below says people with an underlying condition were 10x more likely to die than those without. Nobody knows the true death risk for the normal, healthy 20 year old, but it's very, very small. We do know of the first 23,000 Americans who died of CV, all of 23 were under 24 years of age. And most of those had an underlying condition.

IOW's, extremely, small.

And yet, a recent Gallup Poll said that 78% of people aged 18-44 are "very or somewhat worried" about catching CV19. The fear seems to be all out of proportion to the reality.

So ... why are campuses locked down? Why is society locked down? The proper policy seems to be: If you have diabetes, cancer, heart disease, or asthma, or are over 65, self-isolate. Places like nursing homes should be on extreme lockdown with extreme sanitation and social distancing measures. The rest of America, go about your business. Play college football games in front of 100,000 fans.

What am I missing here? Not a rhetorical question. If I'm wrong here, help me out.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

(05-10-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Studies seem to indicate that if you are around 21 years old, your chances of dying of CV19 once infected are extremely small, about 1 in 300. And for most its actually lower than that, because of the relatively small number of such people who have died, most had significant underlying health conditions - cancer, asthma, heart disease, morbid obesity, or diabetes. The article linked below says people with an underlying condition were 10x more likely to die than those without. Nobody knows the true death risk for the normal, healthy 20 year old, but it's very, very small. We do know of the first 23,000 Americans who died of CV, all of 23 were under 24 years of age. And most of those had an underlying condition.

IOW's, extremely, small.

And yet, a recent Gallup Poll said that 78% of people aged 18-44 are "very or somewhat worried" about catching CV19. The fear seems to be all out of proportion to the reality.

So ... why are campuses locked down? Why is society locked down? The proper policy seems to be: If you have diabetes, cancer, heart disease, or asthma, or are over 65, self-isolate. Places like nursing homes should be on extreme lockdown with extreme sanitation and social distancing measures. The rest of America, go about your business. Play college football games in front of 100,000 fans.

What am I missing here? Not a rhetorical question. If I'm wrong here, help me out.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

Not to protect them, but to protect their grandparents and the old faculty.

Because the faculty, and staff are 20-year olds

Courtesy of UNC Davis Library

Coronavirus - COVID-19; Effectiveness of Measles Vaccine in Health Care Professionals During COVID-19 Outbreak (Randomized Controlled Trial)
Medical Letter on the CDC & FDA; Atlanta [Atlanta]10 May 2020: 942.Publisher logo. Links to publisher website, opened in a new window.
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2020 MAY 10 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Medical Letter on the CDC & FDA -- Staff editors report on the newly launched clinical trial, NCT04357028, which has the following summary description: "Till now, mortality reports among children below 9 years remains extremely low despite that the incidence of death toll is high and exceeding 50,000 patients among older population, One speculation for lower SARS infectivity is that cross-protective antibodies against measles vaccine ( MV). In mice susceptible to measles virus, recombinant MV induced the highest titers of neutralizing antibodies and fully protected immunized animals from intranasal infectious challenge with SARS-CoV, The primary objective of the present study is to determine the benefit of measles vaccine in health care professional to decrease the incidence of COVID-19. We Hypothesized that, measles vaccine may lower the incidence of serologically proven SARS-CoV-2 infection and reported respiratory illness"

As a matter of record, on April 23, 2020, NewsRx staff editors report that the available information provided by Kasr El Aini Hospital on this trial include:

Tracking Information
Trial Identifier NCT04357028
First Submitted Date April 19, 2020
First Posted Date April 22, 2020
Results First Submitted Date Not Provided
Results First Posted Date Not Provided
Last Update Submitted Date April 19, 2020
Last Update Posted Date April 22, 2020
Primary Completion Date October 1, 2020
Start Date May 1, 2020
Current Primary Outcome Measures •COVID-19 disease incidence [ Time Frame: Time Frame: Measured over the 6 months following randomization ] -- Number of participants with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 disease defined as fever (using self-reported questionnaire), plus at least one sign or symptom of respiratory disease including cough, runny/blocked nose (using self-reported questionnaire), plus positive SARS-Cov-2 test (PCR or serology)
Current Secondary Outcome Measures •SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia [ Time Frame: Time Frame: Measured over the 6 months following randomization ] -- Number of pneumonia cases (abnormal chest X-ray) (using self-reported questionnaire and/or medical/hospital records) associated with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test
•Critical care admission duration with SARS-CoV-2 [ Time Frame: Time Frame: Measured over the 6 months following randomization ] -- Number of days admitted to critical care (using self-reported questionnaire and/or medical/hospital records) associated with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test
•Oxygen therapy with SARS-CoV-2 [ Time Frame: Time Frame: Measured over the 6 months following randomization ] -- Need for oxygen therapy (using self-reported questionnaire and/or medical/hospital records) associated with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test
Other Outcome Measures Not Provided
Change History https://clinicaltrials.gov/archive/NCT04357028 - Complete list of historical revisions of study NCT04357028


I think it is highly likely that many young people in the US are somewhat protected by their MMR but that makes the College Age Group and below prime traffickers of the illness. Who knows, maybe COVID 19 is here to kill off the anti-vaxxers

They are closed because of the NYC effect. A lot of people, mostly younger visited NYC before people knew the virus was there in strength. They brought it home. Forensic analysis of mutations indicate that 2/3rds of the US infections came out of the NYC outbreak. Campuses provide the same confined space to allow infection of people who wont show. When they return home around the country they'd likely trigger another wave.

It comes down to having enough testing capacity (we are maybe 40% of where we need to be nationally, even California with all our bio labs is only 60% of where we need to be) and instead of a flat rate of infections we need to see a negative net rate, to know we have it contained, to actually open up without a second shutdown everywhere. Opening campuses simply complicates the problem.

Note, I am aware that the the President and his surrogates are pushing the idea of a lower threshold, that we have effectively flattened the curve and the healthcare system can handle this level indefinitely. But that is not the accepted point by the majority of the public (71% believe we are opening to early).

(05-10-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  And yet, a recent Gallup Poll said that 78% of people aged 18-44 are "very or somewhat worried" about catching CV19. The fear seems to be all out of proportion to the reality.

Even if it doesn't kill you you could still wind up in a hospital or bedridden for a while. I'm generally somewhat worried about the flu, so I get a flu shot, even though it likely wouldn't kill me to get.

Because of the fear of going in the hospital and not being able to pay the high medical bills. And because almost every college student has parents in at least their 40s or older that have more of a chance of catching it.

Also the sue-happy culture these days where if one person catches it and spreads it to a dorm and eventually the rest of campus, class action lawsuits occur.

You see what happened that cancelled the NCAA tourney and the rest of the spring sports season. One official in the CAA basketball tourney tested positive for the virus. That was all it took. The entire UNCW men’s basketball team and staff self-quarantined because of that.

Most of the officials especially in college football and college basketball are older folks. The first guy who caught it at the CAA tourney was 61.

Okay. Let’s say there are 20,000 students on campus and because they are allowed to operate as normal, that 60% catch the virus. It is highly contagious. A 60% infection rate means 12,000 students have the virus. If 1 in 300 at around the age of 21 are dying from the virus, that would be a total of 40 students passing away. I am not sure that would be acceptable to a university or the parents.

Because this virus is very contagious, those 12,000 students are spreading the virus around the campus and community. Because this virus is new, nobody really knows what the long term effects of the virus might be. It might be like any other virus and you are fine once it is gone. Also, there is no scientific proof that there is “herd immunity” and you won’t catch it again.

Campuses are closed because they were closed in March. The statistics available in March were much more dire than the statistics available today (2 months later).

My guess is that as the virus dies in the summer sun, the stats will look so good that rationality will return again and campuses will be open in the fall.

(05-10-2020 07:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Campuses are closed because they were closed in March. The statistics available in March were much more dire than the statistics available today (2 months later).

My guess is that as the virus dies in the summer sun, the stats will look so good that rationality will return again and campuses will be open in the fall.

It's not dying out in Arizona, Nevada or California. And we are in the 80 degree whether. That is wishful thinking.

The problem is young people bring it into homes. That is why NYC can't get it under control. Colleges are congregations of young people, disease incubators.

Until we have a vaccine, and adequate testing it's just wishful thinking we can open up. Hell we have not even managed to get the number of new cases to go down. Social distancing is just keeping it flat. But increase contact, as opening up will do, and the number of cases will go up.

Frankly we have been too half assed in closing down, so we never got a handle on it.

Don't forget most campuses are staffed by older adults - not just faculty, but administrative, cleaning and food service staff, etc. Those people can be vulnerable...

There are 20 year olds who did not die from this, were put on the ventilators for a week. One college age girl went to spring break, came home, got ill, tested positive and went on the ventilator. She got it when she went to Florida.

As many schools from kindergarten to college, there are a large portion of kids and young adults with health issues. We had an Arkansan woman of 35 died from the virus, and she had Down Syndrome. That is why we are stay at home orders because the majority of the households in this country have an elderly or someone with health and disability issues.

(05-10-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Studies seem to indicate that if you are around 21 years old, your chances of dying of CV19 once infected are extremely small, about 1 in 300. ...

First, the mortality rate is not an entirely exogenous. If we swamp ICU capacity, then many people in serious condition who could be saved with oxygen or in critical condition who could be saved with life support will die. And there is no evidence at this point that the rate of people of different ages in serious and critical condition is substantially different, it's rather the rate of those who survive being in serious and critical condition when given proper medical care.

Indeed, since they are less likely to die while being cared for, a young person in serious or critical condition will on average occupy the resources of the ICU for longer than the typical 80 year old.

If triage is done the way that it was done in northern Italy when they overwhelmed their ICU capacity, the younger patients will be given priority due to "years of life saved" logic, so the infections of young people won't show up in a spike in deaths of younger people in that case, but in a spike in deaths of older people who don't have access to ICU capacity being used to keep young people alive.

Second, assuming that there ARE no serious long term consequences other than death because the disease is too recent for us to have evidence about long term consequences other than death is breathtaking in its recklessness. And young people are those who will have to live with any long term consequences for the longest.

(05-10-2020 07:20 PM)TDenverFan Wrote:  

(05-10-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  And yet, a recent Gallup Poll said that 78% of people aged 18-44 are "very or somewhat worried" about catching CV19. The fear seems to be all out of proportion to the reality.

Even if it doesn't kill you you could still wind up in a hospital or bedridden for a while. I'm generally somewhat worried about the flu, so I get a flu shot, even though it likely wouldn't kill me to get.

Most likely in that age group you wouldn't even notice it actually. Don't drive on the interstate or walk in high grass in the Spring or Summer if you're scared.

(05-10-2020 08:08 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(05-10-2020 07:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Campuses are closed because they were closed in March. The statistics available in March were much more dire than the statistics available today (2 months later).

My guess is that as the virus dies in the summer sun, the stats will look so good that rationality will return again and campuses will be open in the fall.

It's not dying out in Arizona, Nevada or California. And we are in the 80 degree whether. That is wishful thinking.

The problem is young people bring it into homes. That is why NYC can't get it under control. Colleges are congregations of young people, disease incubators.

Until we have a vaccine, and adequate testing it's just wishful thinking we can open up. Hell we have not even managed to get the number of new cases to go down. Social distancing is just keeping it flat. But increase contact, as opening up will do, and the number of cases will go up.

Frankly we have been too half assed in closing down, so we never got a handle on it.

We will NEVER have a vaccine. It is a common cold virus. Suck it up.

It isn't deadly unless you are comorbid. Older people in nursing homes are by far the most affected.

(05-10-2020 08:37 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  There are 20 year olds who did not die from this, were put on the ventilators for a week. One college age girl went to spring break, came home, got ill, tested positive and went on the ventilator. She got it when she went to Florida.

As many schools from kindergarten to college, there are a large portion of kids and young adults with health issues. We had an Arkansan woman of 35 died from the virus, and she had Down Syndrome. That is why we are stay at home orders because the majority of the households in this country have an elderly or someone with health and disability issues.

So. Shut the world down for one person? Horsesh*t. Hundreds of school age children die every year from flu and pneumonia and nobody hears about it. Lock your ass inside if you are scared and let grown men run the country.

If the U.S. were not, in a general sense, a society of narcissists (and I will be the first to admit I've exhibited narcissistic behavior), the virus would not be as troubling.

There are too many selfish folks in this otherwise great nation to not take this pandemic seriously.

I've said before: If everybody in America were, for example, members of the Church of Latter Day Saints (or Japanese), we would have far fewer social problems. The homogeneous societies/cultures know how to deal with social issues of concerns far better than societies comprised of millions of individualists/tribalists/narcissists.

And, quite frankly, if we don't have college sports this next academic year (yes, I will miss them if so), we'll all survive ... and likely be far more appreciative when they return for the 2021-22 academic year.

Odd, there are a lot of posters in this thread that I don't recognize as usual posters and they all have the exact same position on this. Just an observation.

Absolute safety is a pipe dream. Just a note that over 1,800 college students die every year from alcohol related causes, yet I haven't seen a push to limit alcohol to those 24 and older. College campuses are annual hotbeds for influenza and less than 25% of students typically get a flu shot. Why have campuses not been closed to prevent this annual spread that impacts 20 to 60 million Americans annually and kills 30,000 to 80,000 each year? Those students go home and spread it to their more vunerable younger and older family members.

(05-10-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Studies seem to indicate that if you are around 21 years old, your chances of dying of CV19 once infected are extremely small, about 1 in 300. And for most its actually lower than that, because of the relatively small number of such people who have died, most had significant underlying health conditions - cancer, asthma, heart disease, morbid obesity, or diabetes. The article linked below says people with an underlying condition were 10x more likely to die than those without. Nobody knows the true death risk for the normal, healthy 20 year old, but it's very, very small. We do know of the first 23,000 Americans who died of CV, all of 23 were under 24 years of age. And most of those had an underlying condition.

IOW's, extremely, small.

And yet, a recent Gallup Poll said that 78% of people aged 18-44 are "very or somewhat worried" about catching CV19. The fear seems to be all out of proportion to the reality.

So ... why are campuses locked down? Why is society locked down? The proper policy seems to be: If you have diabetes, cancer, heart disease, or asthma, or are over 65, self-isolate. Places like nursing homes should be on extreme lockdown with extreme sanitation and social distancing measures. The rest of America, go about your business. Play college football games in front of 100,000 fans.

What am I missing here? Not a rhetorical question. If I'm wrong here, help me out.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

1. They really didn't know a lot at the time.
2. Schools are an excellent place to spread a disease. And everywhere those students go, restaurants, groceries, theatres, parks, they can spread it. And that can impact those who are vulnerable. They wanted to slow down the spread so hospitals could manage the ill.

Not a debate on whether it was a good decision, but there were good reasons.