(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 05:31 AM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  interesting...

It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 05:31 AM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  interesting...

It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 05:31 AM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  interesting...

It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 05:31 AM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  interesting...

It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

From 1m+ to 60 k...ok I have a bridge to sell you. Call me.

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 05:31 AM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  interesting...

It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

Convenient story, isn't it? Kind of like a weather man saying there is a 10% chance of rain. Not wrong, no matter what happens.

clt says the antibody test is going to change this dramatically for the better.

(04-09-2020 08:45 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-05-2020 10:41 AM)greyowl72 Wrote:  It’s early. But good news, nevertheless.
However, don’t discount the general consequences of stay at home, social distancing, elimination of elective surgery , etc. We are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases in ICUs and hospitals while the numbers of usual patients that are often there ( elective surgery, trauma etc) are way down. That might account for this early discrepancy.

my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

From 1m+ to 60 k...ok I have a bridge to sell you. Call me.

You can't be serious. You don't think the 10's of millions of people staying home hasn't had an effect on reducing massive transmission? We'll know soon enough. Some countries most probably including the U.S. will lift restrictions that have been put into place too soon and this will cause new waves of infection.

We're not going to be out of this predicament until everyone has gotten it or we have a vaccine. This is a highly efficiently spread novel virus.

It's hard to argue that COVID-19 is not a mostly "New York/New Jersey" problem. According to CNN (not my favorite source), literally 42.2% of all Coronavirus deaths to date in the U.S. are in the state of New York (7,067 deaths). Throw in nearby New Jersey (1,709), and those two states alone represent 52.4% of all Coronavirus deaths in the United States as of today.

Those are fascinating statistics.

By contrast, the other 6 "largest" U.S. states by population --such as California (547 deaths), Florida (371), Illinois (529), Pennsylvania (365), Texas (223) and Ohio (213)-- pale in comparison, and represent only 13.4% of total deaths COMBINED.

This is a NewYork/New Jersey virus, and the rest of us are simply outliers forced to play along.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/hea...and-cases/

(04-10-2020 11:25 AM)HogDawg Wrote:  It's hard to argue that COVID-19 is not a mostly "New York/New Jersey" problem. According to CNN (not my favorite source), literally 42.2% of all Coronavirus deaths to date in the U.S. are in the state of New York (7,067 deaths). Throw in nearby New Jersey (1,709), and those two states alone represent 52.4% of all Coronavirus deaths in the United States as of today.

Those are fascinating statistics.

By contrast, the other 6 "largest" U.S. states by population --such as California (547 deaths), Florida (371), Illinois (529), Pennsylvania (365), Texas (223) and Ohio (213)-- pale in comparison, and represent only 13.4% of total deaths COMBINED.

This is a NewYork/New Jersey virus, and the rest of us are simply outliers forced to play along.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/hea...and-cases/

That’s because the majority of the infected people who entered the country flew into NYC/NJ the largest and most densely populated area in the US. It’s also the area of the country where mass transit is widespread which also contributed to the spread. And of course throughout the country from there.

(04-10-2020 07:07 AM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  clt says the antibody test is going to change this dramatically for the better.

Sure, as long as they aren't the duds the UK got from, you guessed it, China.

https://www.newsweek.com/uk-says-million...ts-1496506

I think the U.S. is a few months from accurate / plentiful antibody testing, personally. The government has royally screwed this up and I don't see that changing in short order.

(04-10-2020 10:07 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:45 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 01:53 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  my mother was admitted to the hospital on Monday in Florida and my sister yesterday in Virginia. the propaganda saying this is overblown is total BS. The nurses don't have masks. so even if you end up being negative when you get there you might not be when you leave. you also are not allowed visitors so you get to die alone. the last days of you life struggling to breath. alone

I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

From 1m+ to 60 k...ok I have a bridge to sell you. Call me.

You can't be serious. You don't think the 10's of millions of people staying home hasn't had an effect on reducing massive transmission? We'll know soon enough. Some countries most probably including the U.S. will lift restrictions that have been put into place too soon and this will cause new waves of infection.

We're not going to be out of this predicament until everyone has gotten it or we have a vaccine. This is a highly efficiently spread novel virus.

Completely serious. If you believe the models, which took social distancing into the formula, had predictions of 1 to 2M and now they are predicting 60-65k is because of our actions you unbelievably gullible.

Imagine that! Just like sports we have a bunch of Monday morning Quarterbacks!

(04-10-2020 03:06 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-10-2020 10:07 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:45 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 06:08 PM)Dusky Wrote:  I’m sorry to hear about your mother and sister and odds say they will be fine but the fact is based on the predictions and the actual numbers it’s WAY WAY overblown. We went from north of 1m to 60k, you don’t think that’s overblown?

The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

From 1m+ to 60 k...ok I have a bridge to sell you. Call me.

You can't be serious. You don't think the 10's of millions of people staying home hasn't had an effect on reducing massive transmission? We'll know soon enough. Some countries most probably including the U.S. will lift restrictions that have been put into place too soon and this will cause new waves of infection.

We're not going to be out of this predicament until everyone has gotten it or we have a vaccine. This is a highly efficiently spread novel virus.

Completely serious. If you believe the models, which took social distancing into the formula, had predictions of 1 to 2M and now they are predicting 60-65k is because of our actions you unbelievably gullible.

The 1M-2M projections were if we did nothing. We've done something.

Now how much of that is a missed projection and how much of it is the direct result of our response is difficult if not impossible to determine. And until we have a readily available vaccine, it'll be hard to point to a number and say "welp, that's it" because it's going to be in the system for some time to come, possibly for good.

I firmly believe the lower projections correlate with the preventive measures we have executed, and not just a case of the weather guy on Channel 8 calling for snow and getting 50-degree sunshine instead.

(04-10-2020 01:59 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(04-10-2020 11:25 AM)HogDawg Wrote:  It's hard to argue that COVID-19 is not a mostly "New York/New Jersey" problem. According to CNN (not my favorite source), literally 42.2% of all Coronavirus deaths to date in the U.S. are in the state of New York (7,067 deaths). Throw in nearby New Jersey (1,709), and those two states alone represent 52.4% of all Coronavirus deaths in the United States as of today.

Those are fascinating statistics.

By contrast, the other 6 "largest" U.S. states by population --such as California (547 deaths), Florida (371), Illinois (529), Pennsylvania (365), Texas (223) and Ohio (213)-- pale in comparison, and represent only 13.4% of total deaths COMBINED.

This is a NewYork/New Jersey virus, and the rest of us are simply outliers forced to play along.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/hea...and-cases/

That’s because the majority of the infected people who entered the country flew into NYC/NJ the largest and most densely populated area in the US. It’s also the area of the country where mass transit is widespread which also contributed to the spread. And of course throughout the country from there.

You make a very strong argument for stronger immigration and border control.

That said, according to Pew Research, Texas is tied for 2nd with New York for immigrant population, and both states trail California in the same category. And yet, despite having equally as large or larger immigrant populations as New York, both Texas and California are very far behind New York when it comes to the number of deaths due to Coronavirus.

I do understand and agree with the mass transit argument. But New York's problem is, that isn't going away.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20...s-in-size/

(04-10-2020 04:58 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(04-10-2020 03:06 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-10-2020 10:07 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:45 PM)Dusky Wrote:  

(04-09-2020 08:25 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  The projections are down BECAUSE OF what we did. That was the whole point.

From 1m+ to 60 k...ok I have a bridge to sell you. Call me.

You can't be serious. You don't think the 10's of millions of people staying home hasn't had an effect on reducing massive transmission? We'll know soon enough. Some countries most probably including the U.S. will lift restrictions that have been put into place too soon and this will cause new waves of infection.

We're not going to be out of this predicament until everyone has gotten it or we have a vaccine. This is a highly efficiently spread novel virus.

Completely serious. If you believe the models, which took social distancing into the formula, had predictions of 1 to 2M and now they are predicting 60-65k is because of our actions you unbelievably gullible.

The 1M-2M projections were if we did nothing. We've done something.

Now how much of that is a missed projection and how much of it is the direct result of our response is difficult if not impossible to determine. And until we have a readily available vaccine, it'll be hard to point to a number and say "welp, that's it" because it's going to be in the system for some time to come, possibly for good.

I firmly believe the lower projections correlate with the preventive measures we have executed, and not just a case of the weather guy on Channel 8 calling for snow and getting 50-degree sunshine instead.

I couldn’t disagree more. The models absolutely included social distancing, you can try to change the narrative after the fact but that’s not correct. I agree we will never know as you can’t prove a negative but you also can’t rewrite the truth.

I am not a conspiracy guy but if if don’t believe there is more to this story than what we have been told then you believe the folks in DC are here to help you. I just have no idea what and why and we most likely will never know, we just have to live through it.

There are two primary differences between California and Texas vs. NY/NJ.

First is population density. New York is largest city in the U.S. by population but is only the 24th largest by area. It doesn't take a PhD to figure out that math.

Second, particularly in relation to California, New York was extremely slow to respond and put mitigation measures into place initially - especially when you account for their population density and liklihood that in places like NY metro (and Wuhan for example) transmission is going to occur more easily and result in spread more rapidly.

The problem with some of the comments above is that if you take a snapshot of a single moment rather than over the course of the entire event (which we are a long way away from getting to) then you're making a judgment on woefully incomplete information.

There have been 16 million people file for unemployment in the last three weeks alone. Given backlogs we can probably expect that number to double or triple. That's a lot of people not getting out and moving virus around. I'm pretty sure we're going to hit a steep drop in new cases in the next month and then everyone is going to think the worst is behind, turn everything back on, and we're going to see an explosion of cases again.

The test case is going to be Sweden. There they didn't turn anything off. They just told people to practice good hygiene and limit social interactions, but they kept everything open. In the next two to four weeks, we're going to have a sense of how well that works.

As this moment, we have over 500K in the U.S. and almost 19,000 deaths in really what is just a couple of months. I shutter to think what those numbers would be had we simply sat back and let this play out without asking people stay at home. I still have to work because I'm in a national security position, and my commute to work is 40 minutes vs. 70 minutes on a normal day. There is no doubt the actions we have taken have had an incredible impact in slowing the spread. The question is how long can we keep this up while the economy falls apart?

over 2000 people died yesterday. the 100 people a day die from car accidents argument against social distancing does not seem as common as it did when this all started.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, said Friday that certificates of immunity for Americans have been discussed during White House meetings, according to a report.

Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the idea that people carry such certificates to prove they have tested positive for antibodies might “have some merit under certain circumstances.”

(04-11-2020 07:00 AM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, said Friday that certificates of immunity for Americans have been discussed during White House meetings, according to a report.

Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the idea that people carry such certificates to prove they have tested positive for antibodies might “have some merit under certain circumstances.”

I imagine that you will be able to add it to your electronic wallet on your phone for convenience.

(04-11-2020 07:08 AM)MAN4UAB Wrote:  

(04-11-2020 07:00 AM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, said Friday that certificates of immunity for Americans have been discussed during White House meetings, according to a report.

Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the idea that people carry such certificates to prove they have tested positive for antibodies might “have some merit under certain circumstances.”

I imagine that you will be able to add it to your electronic wallet on your phone for convenience.

clt hopes we get a sweet hat or something.