(03-28-2020 06:18 PM)Wedge Wrote: (03-28-2020 01:58 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: Teams do not give up franchise quarterbacks. The Texans have the ability to keep Watson through 2023.
The only way we could credibly call Watson a franchise quarterback is if we define every average-or-better starting QB as a franchise QB. In 2019, Watson was 11th in quarterback rating, tied for 9th in TD passes, 7th in completion percentage.
If the Texans can re-sign him at an average starting QB salary, then he's a good deal within the salary cap. If Watson wants (or can get elsewhere) a top of the market salary with top of the market guaranteed money in his next contract, then the Texans would be better off not becoming one of those teams that gets burned by paying top-3 money to a QB whose performance is somewhere in the middle among NFL starters. Though, as noted above in this thread, Texans management has made some boneheaded decisions in the past, so there's no telling if they get this one right.
Watson has had two full seasons at the helm:
1. Selected to the Pro Bowl in 2018 & 2019.
2. Averaged 4,000 yards passing the past two seasons.
3. He is 3rd in rushing yardage among quarterbacks the past two seasons, behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
4. He has completed 67% of his passes the past two seasons.
5. He has led his team to the playoffs in both seasons.
6. He has a 21-10 record as a starter the past two seasons.
7. He is only 24 years old.
Jackson, Allen and Watson are all dual threat quarterbacks, but Watson puts up the better numbers as a passer, at least to this point. Watson threw for 4,165 yards in 2018. Jackson threw for 3,127 yards in 2019 and Josh Allen threw for 3,089 yards in 2019. The point is Watson is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, along the lines of Russell Wilson. He just needs better talent around him and he needs to learn to get rid of the ball quicker.
As far as passer rating goes, Watson was ranked higher than both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers the past two seasons. Watson was ranked 6th in quarterback rating in 2018, as well as 11th in 2019. That is good out of 32 starting quarterbacks, but that rating alone does not a determine a quarterback's value to his team.
There are different ways to determine a franchise quarterback, but one is certainly that quarterback's value to his team. Watson is going to be the quarterback for the Texans for the next 10-15 years. That is a franchise quarterback. That means you are also putting up the numbers and getting wins. That does not mean that every game and season are terrific, but the overall is good.
Watson will get paid, somewhere in the vicinity of $35 to $40 million per season, with the important number being the guaranteed dollar number. Jared Goff got an average of $33.5 million on his contract, with a total guaranteed amount of $110 million. Both Patrick Mahomes and Watson will at least equal that number. Ryan Tannehill just signed a contract with Tennessee that has $62 million in full guarantees and $91 million in total guarantees. His 2022 salary of $29 million is guaranteed if he is on the roster on the 5th day of the 2021 league season, a likely occurrence.
https://www.espn.com/blog/houston-texans...uld-be-key
Texan Coach Bill O'Brien stated in January about Watson: “We want him to be a Houston Texan for his career,” O’Brien said. “He is a great person, he's a great football player and he means a lot to this organization, to this city, to this league. I just don't want to get into the nuts and bolts of when you would do that and all those different things. Those things take time, but we want him here for a long time."
I think it is pretty obvious that Watson will be paid like a franchise quarterback and will be with the Texans a long time. He will be the face of the franchise. Based on the past two seasons and his collegiate career, he will have the numbers to back it up.