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'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
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maximus Offline
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Post: #1561
'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
The wife and I both work for the same hospital system. I work on the corp side and she is an advanced clincal ICU nurse who has been working like crazy over the last few weeks.

One of her techs just tested positive and now my whole house is locked down until early April. So now my family, 4 kids included, get to sit and hope we dont contract the virus. If all clear after that she will hit the front line again...most likely when it is peaking in our region.

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03-23-2020 07:37 PM
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Post: #1562
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 02:55 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Summer - Tokyo. Was 2020 but now will be 2021.

Next Winter Games are in 2022 in Beijing. Next Summer Games after that are in 2024 in Paris. And the next Winter Games after that are in 2026 in Milan and Cortina, Italy.

But IOC is probably going to have change things around a bit....

I'll suggest a change. Take those 2022 Winter Games and strip them from China.

Move them to, say, 2023 and host them Salt Lake City, Vancouver or Turin, Italy - all the cities have hosted before and theoretically would have the infrastructure to host (e.g., stuff like luge and bobsled runs).

Turin, Italy is probably the least realistic of those 3, but it could be symbolic given the price Italy is paying because of the Chinese deception.

I say 2023 as opposed to 2022 to give the new city more ramp-up time.
(This post was last modified: 03-23-2020 08:09 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
03-23-2020 08:08 PM
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Nittany_Bearcat Offline
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Post: #1563
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

COVID-19's reproduction number (the "R0" you hear people talking about) is real high. Definitely higher than the annual influenza bugs (~ 1.5), and I think it's definitely higher than original estimates (probably closer to 4 than 2.5).

One study as regards the spread in Switzerland had the R0 at 4.26 (before any social distancing).

This things spreads a lot, and that in itself can overwhelm a hospital system with minimal marginal operating room.
(This post was last modified: 03-23-2020 08:16 PM by Nittany_Bearcat.)
03-23-2020 08:12 PM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 08:12 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

COVID-19's reproduction number (the "R0" you hear people talking about) is real high. Definitely higher than the annual influenza bugs (~ 1.5), and I think it's definitely higher than original estimates (probably closer to 4 than 2.5).

One study as regards the spread in Switzerland had the R0 at 4.26 (before any social distancing).

This things spreads a lot, and that in itself can overwhelm a hospital system with minimal marginal operating room.

yo' bro'.....I don't know where yaz gitting ya figures, but it's still at 1.25% kill rate....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

imma gonna lay it out again in simple math terminology.....it's muh numerator divided by muh denominator....that's the lower number shoved up the arse of the upper number with that slash thingy in between....

552/43721 = 0126 that's 1.26% for muh dense....

jmfc........unfk'nbelievable....
03-23-2020 08:28 PM
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Post: #1565
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 08:28 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 08:12 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

COVID-19's reproduction number (the "R0" you hear people talking about) is real high. Definitely higher than the annual influenza bugs (~ 1.5), and I think it's definitely higher than original estimates (probably closer to 4 than 2.5).

One study as regards the spread in Switzerland had the R0 at 4.26 (before any social distancing).

This things spreads a lot, and that in itself can overwhelm a hospital system with minimal marginal operating room.

yo' bro'.....I don't know where yaz gitting ya figures, but it's still at 1.25% kill rate....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

imma gonna lay it out again in simple math terminology.....it's muh numerator divided by muh denominator....that's the lower number shoved up the arse of the upper number with that slash thingy in between....

552/43721 = 0126 that's 1.26% for muh dense....

jmfc........unfk'nbelievable....

There's nothing quite so profound as proctology and mathematics intersecting during loquacious intercourse.

BTW Stink: One might be able to refer to conversations held with the LGBTQ community as being discourse with the scrofulous!
03-23-2020 08:59 PM
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EigenEagle Offline
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Post: #1566
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 04:20 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Some interesting information from the journal Science suggesting the number infected was underestimated by a factor of 6, causing people to greatly overestimate both the contagiousness and deadliness of the disease.

Quote:A study in Science last week estimated that 86 percent of all infections were undocumented in the early stages of China's epidemic, before the travel restrictions that the government imposed on January 23. In other words, the actual number of infections was roughly six times as high as the official number. If that holds true at this point in the United States, where about 41,000 cases have been confirmed so far, the actual number of infections right now would be nearly 250,000. The actual CFR would be 0.2 percent, compared to the current crude CFR of 1.2 percent.

That makes a huge difference in terms of projected deaths. The CDC's worst-case scenario, which assumes that containment and suppression efforts are largely unsuccessful, imagines 214 million infections (65 percent of the population) and 1.7 million deaths, which implies a CFR of 0.8 percent. If the true CFR were 0.2 percent, the number of deaths would instead be 428,000.

How likely is it that 65 percent of the U.S. population will be infected? The Science study estimates that the basic reproduction number for COVID-19—the average number of people a carrier could be expected to infect—was 2.4 prior to January 23, "indicating a high capacity for sustained transmission." During the period from January 24 through February 8, the researchers estimate, that number dropped to 0.99.

A 0.2% case fatality rate BTW is about on par with....the garden-variety flu.

https://reason.com/2020/03/23/two-reason...realistic/

If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

That has nothing to do with CFR, which is what I was comparing to the flu.
03-23-2020 09:28 PM
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Eagleaidaholic Offline
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Post: #1567
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 09:28 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 04:20 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Some interesting information from the journal Science suggesting the number infected was underestimated by a factor of 6, causing people to greatly overestimate both the contagiousness and deadliness of the disease.

Quote:A study in Science last week estimated that 86 percent of all infections were undocumented in the early stages of China's epidemic, before the travel restrictions that the government imposed on January 23. In other words, the actual number of infections was roughly six times as high as the official number. If that holds true at this point in the United States, where about 41,000 cases have been confirmed so far, the actual number of infections right now would be nearly 250,000. The actual CFR would be 0.2 percent, compared to the current crude CFR of 1.2 percent.

That makes a huge difference in terms of projected deaths. The CDC's worst-case scenario, which assumes that containment and suppression efforts are largely unsuccessful, imagines 214 million infections (65 percent of the population) and 1.7 million deaths, which implies a CFR of 0.8 percent. If the true CFR were 0.2 percent, the number of deaths would instead be 428,000.

How likely is it that 65 percent of the U.S. population will be infected? The Science study estimates that the basic reproduction number for COVID-19—the average number of people a carrier could be expected to infect—was 2.4 prior to January 23, "indicating a high capacity for sustained transmission." During the period from January 24 through February 8, the researchers estimate, that number dropped to 0.99.

A 0.2% case fatality rate BTW is about on par with....the garden-variety flu.

https://reason.com/2020/03/23/two-reason...realistic/

If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

That has nothing to do with CFR, which is what I was comparing to the flu.

CFR can only be calculated once the epidemic is over. Could go higher or most likely decrease as treatment is more prevalent. Spanish Flu of 1918 ended up with a CFR of >2.5%.
03-23-2020 09:46 PM
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Post: #1568
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 08:12 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

COVID-19's reproduction number (the "R0" you hear people talking about) is real high. Definitely higher than the annual influenza bugs (~ 1.5), and I think it's definitely higher than original estimates (probably closer to 4 than 2.5).

One study as regards the spread in Switzerland had the R0 at 4.26 (before any social distancing).

This things spreads a lot, and that in itself can overwhelm a hospital system with minimal marginal operating room.

Italy has an infection rate so far of 0.1%. South Korea, where its fading, had 0.02%.
The US had 60 million get the flue last year, a rate of about 18%. To equal that, Italy would have to have new cases and be missing positives not tested by a factor of 180!
China is much lower than either, but I don't really trust their numbers.

The numbers just aren't adding up.
03-23-2020 11:15 PM
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Post: #1569
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 08:28 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  yo' bro'.....I don't know where yaz gitting ya figures, but it's still at 1.25% kill rate....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

imma gonna lay it out again in simple math terminology.....it's muh numerator divided by muh denominator....that's the lower number shoved up the arse of the upper number with that slash thingy in between....

552/43721 = 0126 that's 1.26% for muh dense....

jmfc........unfk'nbelievable....

My comment was about the "reproduction number" - that is a completely separate metric vs. the "kill rate."
03-24-2020 12:43 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 12:43 AM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 08:28 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  yo' bro'.....I don't know where yaz gitting ya figures, but it's still at 1.25% kill rate....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

imma gonna lay it out again in simple math terminology.....it's muh numerator divided by muh denominator....that's the lower number shoved up the arse of the upper number with that slash thingy in between....

552/43721 = 0126 that's 1.26% for muh dense....

jmfc........unfk'nbelievable....

My comment was about the "reproduction number" - that is a completely separate metric vs. the "kill rate."

fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....
03-24-2020 06:30 AM
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Post: #1571
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 05:24 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If its just the same, why do hospital systems get overwhelmed by Covid-19 when they dont have any trouble dealing with the annual seasonal flu?

Not taking issue with the theory... but the idea that systems (at least in the US) get overwhelmed is based a lot on conjecture and response. Part of the reason we're struggling now (not just here) is that we're having to build separate systems on the fly for victims, as well as sending entire families into quarantine as a result of exposure. If we get to the point where we can't care for people because of self-imposed quarantines, those quarantines would be a little redundant, wouldn't they?

H1N1 in 2009 infected 60mm SYMPTOMATIC Americans and put 275,000 in the hospital.... and we did almost nothing to stop its spread nor did our system 'break'.. Many Covid victims are asymptomatic.... so they won't be taking up resources

(03-23-2020 09:46 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  CFR can only be calculated once the epidemic is over. Could go higher or most likely decrease as treatment is more prevalent. Spanish Flu of 1918 ended up with a CFR of >2.5%.

Spanish Flu was also H1N1 like Swine. Something many people ignore. Swine was a virus we'd seen before 100 years ago and STILL it killed thousands and infected millions.
03-24-2020 10:27 AM
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Post: #1572
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Again. This will go down as the biggest Charlie Foxtrot in the history of the country.
03-24-2020 10:33 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has announced "a total ban of coming out of your homes" for three weeks for the nation of 1.3--1.4 billion. (depending on who is counting)
03-24-2020 10:43 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2020 10:48 AM by Hambone10.)
03-24-2020 10:46 AM
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Post: #1575
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-23-2020 07:37 PM)maximus Wrote:  The wife and I both work for the same hospital system. I work on the corp side and she is an advanced clincal ICU nurse who has been working like crazy over the last few weeks.

One of her techs just tested positive and now my whole house is locked down until early April. So now my family, 4 kids included, get to sit and hope we dont contract the virus. If all clear after that she will hit the front line again...most likely when it is peaking in our region.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Good luck Maximus. Hoping for full recovery for your wife. I have no idea how a housefhold of four would go about seperating themselves if one acquired the virus. Does one just stay locked up in one room and everyone else stays at the other end of the house? Have you guys been given any protocols to follow?
03-24-2020 10:50 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 10:46 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.

XACLY!

there's a variety of ways to play, "panic"...

therefore, what happens 'next time'?!

#futility
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2020 11:04 AM by stinkfist.)
03-24-2020 11:01 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
Just a little update...

I ordered Purell Hand Sanitizer (8 small bottles) through my Office Depot Business account on March 5th. This was at the beginning of the run on the stuff... they were delivered today.

Perhaps this is a sign that things are starting to turn, at least production-wise.
03-24-2020 11:08 AM
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RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 10:46 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.

Agreed. The infection rate is meaningless as we know COVID has a high communicability. And because of social distancing I don't think we have a accurate mortality picture in the U.S. What would also be interesting to know is updates from the those who have recovered.
03-24-2020 11:50 AM
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Post: #1579
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 10:50 AM)VA49er Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 07:37 PM)maximus Wrote:  The wife and I both work for the same hospital system. I work on the corp side and she is an advanced clincal ICU nurse who has been working like crazy over the last few weeks.

One of her techs just tested positive and now my whole house is locked down until early April. So now my family, 4 kids included, get to sit and hope we dont contract the virus. If all clear after that she will hit the front line again...most likely when it is peaking in our region.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Good luck Maximus. Hoping for full recovery for your wife. I have no idea how a housefhold of four would go about seperating themselves if one acquired the virus. Does one just stay locked up in one room and everyone else stays at the other end of the house? Have you guys been given any protocols to follow?
Appreciate it

Luckily everyone has their own bedroom and bathroom so staying separate as much as possible. Just using common sense tactics and cleaning regularly.

Ultimately its a wait and see for the household.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
03-24-2020 11:57 AM
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Post: #1580
RE: 'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown
(03-24-2020 10:46 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(03-24-2020 06:30 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fair enough.....

therefore, let's assume b/c testing is now happening at a much quicker rate, the infected jumps by a factor of 4 and the death toll number remains the same in relation to those confirmed to date.....

the only thing that happens there is the kill rate declines to the point where it becomes nothing more than the same as annual influenza....

when this all said and done, that's how she'll end as we've watched trillions taken out of the avg. joe's pocket for no fk'n reason....

at the end of the day, that's all that really matters, man....

Let me say this differently....

The 'official' mortality rate or infection rate of this disease is mostly an academic exercise. Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it is fairly difficult to transmit. Garden Variety flu has an incredibly high transmission rate, MOSTLY because at least in this country, we don't do that much to prevent it. People don't usually wear masks or wash hands or use sanitizer until they or someone very close to them actually get it.

So all of these 'rates' depend on lots of variables that are not common to everyone.

What matters now is protecting people from DEATH... and not whether the rate is x or y or z%

If 20,000 people all came in to Houston hospitals tomorrow, they would be overwhelmed.... for a day. If 2,000 come in per day for the next 10 days, they'll be stretched thin. If 200 come in per day for the next 100 days, no problem. Same infection rate... same mortality rate.

If 60% get it, the number of deaths will be a lot higher than if 5% get it. A lot of politicans are throwing around 60-70% and that just doesn't seem to jive with any numbers out there. Only 20% got it on the cruise liner and they didn't know about it and were in a confined space.
03-24-2020 12:00 PM
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