20-21 MBB Thoughts & Look Ahead
I had the same thought about someone(s) transferring out. I have zero insider knowledge, but it feels like the new normal in college basketball, and especially with the reality that many of our players were not recruited by this staff, it seems possible ... potentially even likely. That said, Dane seems to be a real player’s coach and perhaps every single player is bought in.
At this point, I see .500 ball in conference as a stretch goal. Definitely not impossible, though a lot will have to go right for us. As for the floor, I think it’s somewhere in the 3-5 win range. Hard to imagine we’ll do as poorly as JMU this year. Man-for-man talent might not match what they had this year, but this is a team game.
We haven’t seen what Dane wants to do as it relates to offensive schemes. We ran it through the POY and we had fewer pieces around him than desired, which exacerbated the need to just run through Nate. Dane seems like a strong X’s and O’s guy, and a good teacher of the game, so I imagine we’ll hit next year with some clear offensive schemes.
As for the players... we need to find 3 guys who will average 12-15 ppg. I think Loewe is definitely one, and the other two will come from some blend of Scott, Blair, a transfer big, or a stud freshman year from Jake or Connor. We then need the other 2 starters to average 5-8 points. That gets us to 50-55 points, and hopefully we average 10+ points from the bench. We need to win a bunch of 65-60 games.
Without an offensive stud averaging 18+ ppg, we can’t afford to have any starters like Hamilton next year who are total offensive liabilities. Balanced scoring and stifling defense will define us. But I worry we don’t have the athleticism to be the defensive team we need to be.
Loewe will be our leader and workhouse, averaging 33-35 mpg with 12-15 ppg with slight upticks in both rpg (because he’ll have to) and apg (because the offensive sets will enable more cuts to the basket). His attitude, work ethic, and leadership will take us beyond expectations, but even those intangibles can’t get us past what feels like a relatively low ceiling.
Scott needs to make a Loewe-like jump between his sophomore and junior season. He may have the most natural scoring talent on the team next season, especially if he reintroduces that midrange floater we saw during the OOC schedule. It appears to be a head game for him. If he’s bought in to the system and becomes a more focused mature presence on the floor, he could team with Loewe to make a strong off-point back court. We desperately need a true PG since both Loewe and Scott work better in the 2/3 wing spot.
Hopefully Blair rubs off on Scott and they realize that along with Luke, they are the leadership triumvirate. Blair will continue to do all the dirty work, but will also put up some respectable numbers. If he’s conditioned, his playing time should sky-rocket. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him 2x mpg (from 15 to 30), which would be the largest jump on the team. He has sneaky athleticism, but is limited by lack of quickness. He should have a few 20+ point games, especially as he feasts against some good match-ups. But he will likely average 10 ppg, 5 rpg, and 2 apg. Good not great numbers, but when combined with his hustle and leadership, he will be a difference maker.
I think Ayesa does a little more with a little more opportunity, but he’s probably one more season away from taking it to the next level (if he has it in him at all). I think he’ll average 1.5x minutes (22 mpg) and 1.5x scoring (9 ppg).
Hermanovskis, Stone, Wight, and the freshmen are total wildcards. Even though we saw a decent amount of Hermanovskis, we didn’t really “see” much. Who knows what we have there.
Harvey is the biggest variable, in that he could be a serviceable big man (think 20+ mpg, 5-10 ppg, 4-8 rbg, 1-2 bpg), he could see the floor as little as he did this year, or he could transfer out and not even be an option for us. Of course I hope for the serviceable big man option to become reality, but really no reason to expect that at this point.
Hard to believe Jihar started our season opener last year as a sophomore. I keep thinking we’d see development (as he was a very raw high-schooler) but it hasn’t seemed to click for him. The only potential for optimism is that he likely had limited practice time and a very disruptive schedule this year given his first semester struggles. So if he dedicates himself to his studies and to basketball this offseason, I guess there’s a chance. But more than likely, he’ll be in the same spot we saw him this year.
Washburn and Dronjak should continue to push the team at practice and be high character important members of the Tribe.
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