More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.

Quote:Exxon Mobil on Tuesday called for tighter regulation of the greenhouse gas methane and offered up its own in-house rules as a model for companies and lawmakers worldwide.

The largest U.S. oil company laid out the guidelines it follows - some of which have been rolled back by the Trump administration - at a time when the industry faces growing pressure from investors to reduce its environmental footprint.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

(03-04-2020 01:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.

Quote:Exxon Mobil on Tuesday called for tighter regulation of the greenhouse gas methane and offered up its own in-house rules as a model for companies and lawmakers worldwide.

The largest U.S. oil company laid out the guidelines it follows - some of which have been rolled back by the Trump administration - at a time when the industry faces growing pressure from investors to reduce its environmental footprint.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

Market forces at work.

Exxon as the darling of the environmental movement.

Hooda thunk it.

(03-04-2020 01:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.

Quote:Exxon Mobil on Tuesday called for tighter regulation of the greenhouse gas methane and offered up its own in-house rules as a model for companies and lawmakers worldwide.

The largest U.S. oil company laid out the guidelines it follows - some of which have been rolled back by the Trump administration - at a time when the industry faces growing pressure from investors to reduce its environmental footprint.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

Market forces at work.

Yet calling for government action...

(03-04-2020 01:39 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.

Quote:Exxon Mobil on Tuesday called for tighter regulation of the greenhouse gas methane and offered up its own in-house rules as a model for companies and lawmakers worldwide.

The largest U.S. oil company laid out the guidelines it follows - some of which have been rolled back by the Trump administration - at a time when the industry faces growing pressure from investors to reduce its environmental footprint.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

Market forces at work.

Yet calling for government action...

Well of course. Any company that goes above and beyond turns to government to make it a requirement for their competitors to do likewise. Happens in the auto industry, too, with safety innovations.

(03-04-2020 01:42 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:39 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.

Quote:Exxon Mobil on Tuesday called for tighter regulation of the greenhouse gas methane and offered up its own in-house rules as a model for companies and lawmakers worldwide.

The largest U.S. oil company laid out the guidelines it follows - some of which have been rolled back by the Trump administration - at a time when the industry faces growing pressure from investors to reduce its environmental footprint.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

Market forces at work.

Yet calling for government action...

Well of course. Any company that goes above and beyond turns to government to make it a requirement for their competitors to do likewise. Happens in the auto industry, too, with safety innovations.

So it's a little more complicated than market forces at work.

Hopefully having such a large backer, and one that is in the industry itself, will influence Congress and/or regulators.

(03-04-2020 01:45 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:42 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:39 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  More interesting news: Exxon publicly calling for stricter methane emission regulations, in opposition to the Trump admin's changes.


https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mo...SL1N2AW034

Market forces at work.

Yet calling for government action...

Well of course. Any company that goes above and beyond turns to government to make it a requirement for their competitors to do likewise. Happens in the auto industry, too, with safety innovations.

So it's a little more complicated than market forces at work.

If you say so. IMO, there's a hairsplitting fine distinction between lobbying and market forces, but give it a name if it helps.

(03-04-2020 01:48 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:45 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:42 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:39 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 01:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Market forces at work.

Yet calling for government action...

Well of course. Any company that goes above and beyond turns to government to make it a requirement for their competitors to do likewise. Happens in the auto industry, too, with safety innovations.

So it's a little more complicated than market forces at work.

If you say so. IMO, there's a hairsplitting fine distinction between lobbying and market forces, but give it a name if it helps.

From my perspective, when I hear market forces, I think of changes without distinct and obvious government intervention. So costs of certain goods, when a typical product goes out of style, when it becomes cheaper to manufacture something because of R&D funding, etc.

So in this case, Exxon taking the initiative to manage greenhouse gases themselves is market forces at play (they likely were being driven to by public perception/company values). But now they're lobbying for the government to mandate the change, which wouldn't be a market force, in my mind.

(03-04-2020 02:03 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From my perspective, when I hear market forces, I think of changes without distinct and obvious government intervention. So costs of certain goods, when a typical product goes out of style, when it becomes cheaper to manufacture something because of R&D funding, etc.

So in this case, Exxon taking the initiative to manage greenhouse gases themselves is market forces at play (they likely were being driven to by public perception/company values). But now they're lobbying for the government to mandate the change, which wouldn't be a market force, in my mind.

I agree with this. (I know... shocking... lol)

Exxon is most likely asking for the mandate because that would make them more competitive if others had to follow the same rules... but much like organic foods or 'renewable only' energy companies... there are plenty of people who would choose to do business with Exxon rather than Shell because of their position on this issue.

That's the market at work... and working correctly. Exxon is asking for something that IMO they shouldn't be/is unnecessary. If they were asking for a loosening... would the same people support it as 'appropriate governmental intervention'??

It's been years but I remember a conversation with someone saying that one of the gas stations... like Loves or something... was lobbying for electric cars because:
a) they are already set up as 'stops' where people would spend money while they charged
b) they were already mostly on interstates where such a thing was most needed... and at intervals related to reasonable stopping distances...
c) they owned all their stations

I don't remember if it was Love's, but I think people can follow the logic there.... why a company supposedly dedicated to gasoline might support something that can replace at least some of that gasoline... because many of their competitors lacked a lot of these situations that would make them a lot of money until everyone else caught up.

(03-04-2020 02:54 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(03-04-2020 02:03 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From my perspective, when I hear market forces, I think of changes without distinct and obvious government intervention. So costs of certain goods, when a typical product goes out of style, when it becomes cheaper to manufacture something because of R&D funding, etc.

So in this case, Exxon taking the initiative to manage greenhouse gases themselves is market forces at play (they likely were being driven to by public perception/company values). But now they're lobbying for the government to mandate the change, which wouldn't be a market force, in my mind.

I agree with this. (I know... shocking... lol)

Exxon is most likely asking for the mandate because that would make them more competitive if others had to follow the same rules... but much like organic foods or 'renewable only' energy companies... there are plenty of people who would choose to do business with Exxon rather than Shell because of their position on this issue.

That's the market at work... and working correctly. Exxon is asking for something that IMO they shouldn't be/is unnecessary. If they were asking for a loosening... would the same people support it as 'appropriate governmental intervention'??

It's been years but I remember a conversation with someone saying that one of the gas stations... like Loves or something... was lobbying for electric cars because:
a) they are already set up as 'stops' where people would spend money while they charged
b) they were already mostly on interstates where such a thing was most needed... and at intervals related to reasonable stopping distances...
c) they owned all their stations

I don't remember if it was Love's, but I think people can follow the logic there.... why a company supposedly dedicated to gasoline might support something that can replace at least some of that gasoline... because many of their competitors lacked a lot of these situations that would make them a lot of money until everyone else caught up.

We're 1 for 72!

(03-04-2020 02:03 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  From my perspective, when I hear market forces, I think of changes without distinct and obvious government intervention. So costs of certain goods, when a typical product goes out of style, when it becomes cheaper to manufacture something because of R&D funding, etc.
So in this case, Exxon taking the initiative to manage greenhouse gases themselves is market forces at play (they likely were being driven to by public perception/company values). But now they're lobbying for the government to mandate the change, which wouldn't be a market force, in my mind.

I have a friend who recently retired from a position as chemical engineer for a major, major petrochemical plant. OSHA came to visit once and insisted that they spend about $2 million on a safety improvement. My friend figured out that they could achieve the same goal, only better, for about $100,000. He took his idea to his boss. The boss said, "Whatever you do, don't tell anybody. We can afford $2 million. Our competitors can't."

(03-04-2020 03:08 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  We're 1 for 72!

We're on a ROLL!

So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

All I know is that at 5:00 a.m., as my house froze, I was thinking that I would feel better if there were stokers shoveling coal at the generating plants rather than technicians waiting for a breath of wind.

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

The bolded is wrong based on what I have read.

My understanding is the vast majority of the offline power (30 GW) is associated with thermal energy issues (mostly natural gas) and that only ~4 GW is associated with alternative energy issues (mostly wind).

Wind issues are due to icing. Thermal issues are due to supplies issues (frozen gas lines and gas being routed to in-home heating).

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...0649564160

edit: the original tweet I saw:

Quote:Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...4154664961

(02-15-2021 03:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

The bolded is wrong based on what I have read.

My understanding is the vast majority of the offline power (30 GW) is associated with thermal energy issues (mostly natural gas) and that only ~4 GW is associated with alternative energy issues (mostly wind).

Wind issues are due to icing. Thermal issues are due to supplies issues (frozen gas lines and gas being routed to in-home heating).

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...0649564160

Texas has lost half of its wind output, lad. Per the common reporting. Even more than that from my calls with some friends at the PUC and ERCOT.

The key difference is that had Texas had some of those generators available for strat up (no matter how slow), we wouldnt be in this mess right now. And, from what I have heard from my friends above, even with the reported 50% loss in wind, it is touch and go. The ERCOT real time diagram shows it all -- it aint pretty.

But, the wind loss is growing as we speak with domino like failures -- it isnt just 'ice', what one needs to get wind power is massive power in to move the turbines, and you generate a tad more due to the turbine effect. The freezes in the farms are leading to cascade failures localized at the wind farms. Wind generation, per my sources, is down to about 12-14% at real time. Making that ERCOT demand vs supply look even worse.

Wind pretty much fked the Texas power grid in this go to.

(02-15-2021 03:10 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

The bolded is wrong based on what I have read.

My understanding is the vast majority of the offline power (30 GW) is associated with thermal energy issues (mostly natural gas) and that only ~4 GW is associated with alternative energy issues (mostly wind).

Wind issues are due to icing. Thermal issues are due to supplies issues (frozen gas lines and gas being routed to in-home heating).

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...0649564160

Texas has lost half of its wind output, lad. Per the common reporting. Even more than that from my calls with some friends at the PUC and ERCOT.

The key difference is that had Texas had some of those generators available for strat up (no matter how slow), we wouldnt be in this mess right now. And, from what I have heard from my friends above, even with the reported 50% loss in wind, it is touch and go. The ERCOT real time diagram shows it all -- it aint pretty.

But, the wind loss is growing as we speak with domino like failures -- it isnt just 'ice', what one needs to get wind power is massive power in to move the turbines, and you generate a tad more due to the turbine effect. The freezes in the farms are leading to cascade failures localized at the wind farms. Wind generation, per my sources, is down to about 12-14% at real time. Making that ERCOT demand vs supply look even worse.

Wind pretty much fked the Texas power grid in this go to.

Weird - it seems like the 26 GW of down thermal power generation is the big issue, not the 4 GW of wind power. I believe thermal power loss is also expanding as gas supply lines are continuing to freeze.

How is the reduction in wind output the driver of the power shortage problem in Texas and not the 26 GW of inoperable thermal energy plants?

(02-15-2021 03:20 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:10 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

The bolded is wrong based on what I have read.

My understanding is the vast majority of the offline power (30 GW) is associated with thermal energy issues (mostly natural gas) and that only ~4 GW is associated with alternative energy issues (mostly wind).

Wind issues are due to icing. Thermal issues are due to supplies issues (frozen gas lines and gas being routed to in-home heating).

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...0649564160

Texas has lost half of its wind output, lad. Per the common reporting. Even more than that from my calls with some friends at the PUC and ERCOT.

The key difference is that had Texas had some of those generators available for strat up (no matter how slow), we wouldnt be in this mess right now. And, from what I have heard from my friends above, even with the reported 50% loss in wind, it is touch and go. The ERCOT real time diagram shows it all -- it aint pretty.

But, the wind loss is growing as we speak with domino like failures -- it isnt just 'ice', what one needs to get wind power is massive power in to move the turbines, and you generate a tad more due to the turbine effect. The freezes in the farms are leading to cascade failures localized at the wind farms. Wind generation, per my sources, is down to about 12-14% at real time. Making that ERCOT demand vs supply look even worse.

Wind pretty much fked the Texas power grid in this go to.

Weird - it seems like the 26 GW of down thermal power generation is the big issue, not the 4 GW of wind power. I believe thermal power loss is also expanding as gas supply lines are continuing to freeze.

How is the reduction in wind output the driver of the power shortage problem in Texas and not the 26 GW of inoperable thermal energy plants?

I think I will defer to the people I know at PUC and ERCOT, lad.

If you want to talk expert to expert, I will gladly get you in touch with my contacts at PUC and ERCOT, so as to form a high expert of the world confab abut it. Good for you?

Im pretty close with some private sector energy gurus at what is probably the topmost energy data firm in the world, Enverus, who seem to agree with the prospect I put out. Shall I set up a Zoom call for you? If you want to hide who you are, I got a cat filter you can use.

If one could only turn bitcoins back into electricity right now.

(02-15-2021 03:30 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:20 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:10 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 03:02 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-15-2021 02:48 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  So for a hard lesson:

When does record energy use occur? Answer: In a cold spell (i.e. 3+ days)

So tonight Texas is facing the 2nd night of sub 20 degrees -- in most parts of the state the temps entered sub 20 30+ hours ago, with much still under 10 degrees. The sub-freezing is expected to last for most of the state until mid day Wed, when generally the state will see maybe 3 hours of 32-36 degrees. A full daylight period without freeze isnt expected until Friday.

So, in these extreme circumstances, want to hazard a guess how much solar has contributed? Pretty much shut off. My solar array readings total over the last three days have been less than needed to toast a bagel. Today, with full sunlight but ice sheeting over everything, not much more. In addition to the 'winter tax' on daylight time and sun angles.

Overall through the state solar output has literally been shutoff for the most part.

Now, turning to the other 'lets go all in' fallacy from the alt-energy folks --- estimates are now that 40-60%+ of wind generation is off line. The turbines are frozen - literally.

Right now, ERCOT is noting a shedding offline of 30,000 Mw of power, of which it appears that approximately half of the outages were due to wind power kind of stopping dead in its tracks. ERCOT issued a level 1 Event at 12:17 am this morning, followed quickly by a level 2 at 1:12 am, and followed by a level 3 at 1:25 --- level 3 is the highest warning ERCOT can issue.

The situation today is pretty bad -- the current demand/actual chart on the site notes an expected peak demand of 75,000 or so Mw later this evening, with the estimate by ERCOT for available + reserves in the 57,000 Mw.

In the last 8 years, Texas has shuttered 14,000 Mw of coal generation, and 4,000 Mw of gas generation. Looks like the winter storm of Jan 2021 is making that push to bad side.

Awesome job in ixnaying on-demand sources for 'acceptable' sources likely to be crippled in the times one needs them.

The other equivalent energy 'disaster' would be hurricane -- at least the dorks behind baseload wind put abut 30-40% of the generation in West Texas, but an equivalent energy wipeout could actually occur with the mega wind farms in the Corpus area going offline.

In short, an abject failure of alt energies in the last 4 days and for the next 3 has precipitated a state-level, very real crisis.

https://twitter.com/ProudAg04/status/136...0893722628

The bolded is wrong based on what I have read.

My understanding is the vast majority of the offline power (30 GW) is associated with thermal energy issues (mostly natural gas) and that only ~4 GW is associated with alternative energy issues (mostly wind).

Wind issues are due to icing. Thermal issues are due to supplies issues (frozen gas lines and gas being routed to in-home heating).

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/...0649564160

Texas has lost half of its wind output, lad. Per the common reporting. Even more than that from my calls with some friends at the PUC and ERCOT.

The key difference is that had Texas had some of those generators available for strat up (no matter how slow), we wouldnt be in this mess right now. And, from what I have heard from my friends above, even with the reported 50% loss in wind, it is touch and go. The ERCOT real time diagram shows it all -- it aint pretty.

But, the wind loss is growing as we speak with domino like failures -- it isnt just 'ice', what one needs to get wind power is massive power in to move the turbines, and you generate a tad more due to the turbine effect. The freezes in the farms are leading to cascade failures localized at the wind farms. Wind generation, per my sources, is down to about 12-14% at real time. Making that ERCOT demand vs supply look even worse.

Wind pretty much fked the Texas power grid in this go to.

Weird - it seems like the 26 GW of down thermal power generation is the big issue, not the 4 GW of wind power. I believe thermal power loss is also expanding as gas supply lines are continuing to freeze.

How is the reduction in wind output the driver of the power shortage problem in Texas and not the 26 GW of inoperable thermal energy plants?

I think I will defer to the people I know at PUC and ERCOT, lad. As opposed to people who cant even seem to get the amounts of energy correct to even a factor of 10^3.

Huh? Not sure I'm following the units issue. Does 1,000 MW /= 1 GW?

[/quote]
If you want to talk expert to expert, I will gladly get you in touch with my contacts at PUC and ERCOT, so as to form a high expert of the world confab abut it. Good for you?

Im pretty close with some private sector energy gurus at what is probably the topmost energy data firm in the world, Enverus, who seem to agree with the prospect I put out. Shall I set up a Zoom call for you? If you want to hide who you are, I got a cat filter you can use.
[/quote]

That's an interesting take, and it would be good to see them make those statements public for others to read.

The analysis I've seen from the energy policy side of Twitter (a few academics, quotes from ERCOT, and the governor) point to natural gas supply issues being the driving force behind the 26 GW drop in thermal production (frozen lines and a redirection of gas from energy to production to in-home heating).

It just seems like an odd take to say that the reduction in thermal energy capacity because of wind development is the reason for the current power supply shortage when 26 GW of thermal production is currently offline. Who is to say that the thermal production that would have been around wouldn't have suffered the same fate as the 26 GW that is offline?

From Abbott:

Quote:The ability of some companies that generate the power has been frozen.

This includes the natural gas & coal generators.

They are working to get generation back on line.

More info, which backs up the idea that gas fired plants are playing a roll.

Quote:As of 10:30 a.m. CST on Feb. 15, the aggregate of capacity that was unavailable was 34 GW. At the end of 2020, ERCOT had 77.2 GW of installed resources. That suggests the grid operator has lost more than 40% of its operable capacity.

ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness in a statement on Sunday morning noted the region was already grappling with higher-than-normal generation outages due to “frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies available to generating units.”

Earlier on Monday, SPP said it was coordinating “closely” with members and market participants to “respond to high demand for electricity, inadequate supply of natural gas, and wind-forecast uncertainty among other variables.”

https://www.powermag.com/ercot-sheds-loa...onditions/

Quote:"We are experiencing record-breaking electric demand due to the extreme cold temperatures that have gripped Texas," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "At the same time, we are dealing with higher-than-normal generation outages due to frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies available to generating units. We are asking Texans to take some simple, safe steps to lower their energy use during this time."

http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/225151