(02-04-2020 10:28 AM)bullet Wrote: (02-04-2020 09:07 AM)Gamecock Wrote: (02-03-2020 09:13 AM)bullet Wrote: (02-03-2020 06:20 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: (02-03-2020 03:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: In a world where the evaluation is more BYOFandom, only UCF and BYU would add value IMO.
And with about 20,000 students in 1990 and about three and a half times that today, UCF is the one that is assured of having its BYOFandom number increasing over the decade ahead.
UCF would be one of the Universities best placed to leverage some big giant-killing wins in the coming decade ... but it's not enough to be in a position to benefit, you actually have to convert that opportunity into media value.
You bring up an interesting thought. Many of the P5 have maxed out their enrollment. They are at 35-50k if public and aren't likely to grow much. At the same time, the college population has dramatically increased since the 70s. The P5 have a lower % of the college age population. Tied in with all the alternate forms of entertainment drawing non-alumni fans (alumni as well for that matter) and the domination should weaken.
Not sure I agree with this - the major public schools are definitely all still growing. I'm too lazy to look up the exact numbers, but South Carolina has grown by about 10k students in just the last 10-12 years and is planning on expanding even more as soon as some new dorms can be built. It's a similar situation at most SEC schools (and I imagine most P5 public schools)
Texas and the Big 10 schools are all about the same size they were 25 years ago. Texas A&M stayed the same size for 15 years or so until a policy change caused them to grow 10k in a short period of time. I don't see Florida, Georgia or Alabama trying to grow much beyond 40k.
I'm not so sure the SEC schools are done growing. Here's a look over the last ten years (since 2009-10):
UF is static (50k)
Vandy is more or less static (undergrad enrollment around 6k, grad numbers unclear but the grand total was 13k in 2019)
Missouri is static (Lots of issue there due to 2015, but Freshman enrollment was at an all time high in 2019)
Tennessee is up 2000 (27k to 29k)
Kentucky is up 3000 (27.5k to 30.5k
UGA is up 5000 students (34k to 39K)
South Carolina is up 7000 (28k to 35k)
Mississippi St up 3000 (19k to 22k)
LSU is up 4,500 (26k to 31.7k)
Ole Miss is up 6000 (17k to 23k)
Auburn is up nearly 6000 (24.6K to 30.5k)
Alabama is up 8000 students (30k to 38k)
Arkansas is up over 10,000 (17k to 27.5k)
Texas A&M is up over 20,000 (48k to 68k)
UF and Vanderbilt seem to have made conscious choices to hold steady, but I see no slowing down from anyone else. I'd expect to see most begin to approach 35 or 40k in the next decade. South Carolina I know plans on going beyond that to around 50k in the next 25 years if they can build the dorms and academic buildings.
These growth numbers will take decades to begin paying dividends, but there is a tremendous curve coming as these graduates who are all in their 20s and early 30s will begin to enter their 40s and 50s over the next two decades.