DawgNBama
the Rush Limbaugh of CSNBBS
Posts: 8,372
Joined: Sep 2002
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I Root For: conservativism/MAGA
Location: US
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RE: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
(01-28-2020 03:54 PM)JRsec Wrote: (01-28-2020 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote: (01-27-2020 12:38 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: (01-26-2020 11:36 PM)bullet Wrote: Looking at it mathematically, these are the states that have more population/P5 team than the average 5,049,000 (based on 2019 population estimates).
NY 19,453,561
OH 11,689,100 Cincinnati
CA 9,878,056 San Diego St, UC San Diego (I'm on board!!)
NJ 8,882,190
FL 7,159,246 Central Florida, South Florida
MA 6,892,503
PA 6,400,995 Temple...
IL 6,335,911
MO 6,137,428
MD 6,045,680
WI 5,822,434
TX 5,799,176 Houston, SMU, Rice
CO 5,758,736 Colorado St?
MN 5,639,632
GA 5,308,712
Here are the ones below the average:
MI 4,993,429
LA 4,648,794 Tulane...?
VA 4,267,760
WA 3,807,447
AZ 3,639,359
TN 3,414,587 Memphis
UT 3,205,958 BYU
AR 3,017,804
NC 2,622,021 ...East Carolina...
SC 2,574,357
AL 2,451,593
IN 2,244,073
KY 2,233,837
OR 2,108,869
OK 1,978,486
NE 1,934,408
WV 1,792,147
IA 1,577,535
MS 1,488,075
KS 1,456,657
The rest have none, but only Connecticut (3.5 million) and Nevada (3.0 million) have more than 2.1 million in total population.
Just my opinion...schools in states listed above that have a possibility, however remote, of joining a power conference are in red above.
In every one of those states except Ohio, adding the teams you suggest would drop the state well below average in terms of saturation.
Also, the presence of major pro sports teams is probably the most important factor when questioning whether a state or region would support another P college football team with median or above P-level donations.
How about a chart of (state population) divided by (number of P5 programs + NFL + NBA+ MLB + NHL teams in the state or within 50 miles of the state). Then, for example, instead of dividing New York's population by 1 and getting 19.5 million people per team, we're dividing it by 11 and getting 1.8 million people per team.
True! The first thought that hit my mind while perusing that list was not where teams need to be added, but where consolidation to reduce the number of teams would be beneficial. There are a few states that could handle another school by those numbers, but those also tend to be professional sports sites.
Some states need to be looked at as a combined entity. Best example I can give of this would be New York & New Jersey. NYC is located in both states, for all practical intents and purposes. I would do the same with Missouri and Kansas because they both share KC. You could make the argument for Tennessee and Mississippi too, because they share Memphis. You could probably throw Arkansas in here too.
The same could be done for Texas and New Mexico, since they both share the El Paso metro.
I'm trying to think of other places where that is the case.
Just thought of another one: Massachusetts and Rhode Island, because of Boston-Providence.
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2020 10:06 AM by DawgNBama.)
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