(01-26-2020 11:55 AM)El Duderino Wrote:  

(01-26-2020 09:03 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Here are my rest of year mock lines for NIU to this point, I only have NIU as favorites in 3 more games, and 2 of those 3 are the next 2 games

Projected Conference Wins: 8.9
Projected Seed: #8
First Round MAC Tourney Game: A rematch of #8 NIU/#9 Ohio in DeKalb from last year's matchup

Ohio, NIU by 4
Miami-OH, NIU by 5
@ Toledo, Toledo by 10
Kent State, Kent by 2.5
@ Ball State, Ball State by 9
@ Miami-OH, Miami-OH by 2.5
Central Michigan, NIU by 3
@ Eastern Michigan, EMU by 2
@ Western Michigan, WMU by 1.5
Toledo, Toledo by 2
Ball State, Ball State by 1.5

No road wins? 2 of our first 3 wins came on the road against teams we shouldn't have beat, statistically!
Tuesday game will tell. Beat Ohio, go up 5-3 MAC, sky is the limit. That road loss to CMU being up by 4 points under 10 seconds still stings!
Every game is a toss-up. Who comes to play?

Yes, I would not call these predictions , but more just mock lines. So if NIU has a 40 percent chance to win in 3 games, on average they will win just over 1 game. So many projected close games, with the final 6 games all having projected lines 3 or under

(01-25-2020 06:03 PM)Big Red Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 05:52 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Huskies win, next game vs Ohio will be a true battle. Bobcats nearly pulled a huge upset vs Akron today, an Akron team that absolutely thumped the Huskies

Is that the same Ohio team that lost to Western Michigan by 12?

PRIME example of how any team can beat any other team in the MAC?
Ohio is 2-5 in MAC play. They beat EMU twice. EMU is 0-7. 10-10 overall but no great wins. But they held their own with Akron in Akron where we couldn't play Akron at all on our home court! Let's see if MM can get the team up and ready for this game - isn't that what good coaches do?

(01-27-2020 09:30 AM)El Duderino Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 06:03 PM)Big Red Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 05:52 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Huskies win, next game vs Ohio will be a true battle. Bobcats nearly pulled a huge upset vs Akron today, an Akron team that absolutely thumped the Huskies

Is that the same Ohio team that lost to Western Michigan by 12?

PRIME example of how any team can beat any other team in the MAC?
Ohio is 2-5 in MAC play. They beat EMU twice. EMU is 0-7. 10-10 overall but no great wins. But they held their own with Akron in Akron where we couldn't play Akron at all on our home court! Let's see if MM can get the team up and ready for this game - isn't that what good coaches do?

That is how the MAC has been for the entirety of its existence. Anyone can beat anyone, that has always been obvious. Duke also lost to Stephen F Austin. Anyone can beat anyone. Well, unless you are Chicago State

(01-27-2020 10:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(01-27-2020 09:30 AM)El Duderino Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 06:03 PM)Big Red Wrote:  

(01-25-2020 05:52 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Huskies win, next game vs Ohio will be a true battle. Bobcats nearly pulled a huge upset vs Akron today, an Akron team that absolutely thumped the Huskies

Is that the same Ohio team that lost to Western Michigan by 12?

PRIME example of how any team can beat any other team in the MAC?
Ohio is 2-5 in MAC play. They beat EMU twice. EMU is 0-7. 10-10 overall but no great wins. But they held their own with Akron in Akron where we couldn't play Akron at all on our home court! Let's see if MM can get the team up and ready for this game - isn't that what good coaches do?

That is how the MAC has been for the entirety of its existence. Anyone can beat anyone, that has always been obvious. Duke also lost to Stephen F Austin. Anyone can beat anyone. Well, unless you are Chicago State

At least Stephen F. Austin is good. Kentucky lost to Evansville.

"Anyone can beat anyone, that has always been obvious."
Says the guy predicting NIU is going to lose 8 of their next 11 games.

(01-27-2020 03:00 PM)El Duderino Wrote:  "Anyone can beat anyone, that has always been obvious."
Says the guy predicting NIU is going to lose 8 of their next 11 games.

In all fairness, he didn't "predict" that we were going to lose 8 of the next 11. He simply threw out potential point spread lines for the next 11 games...none of which look too crazy. The fact that most of the road games being such close lines suggests that we might actually be the better team, just fighting home court advantage.

There's a difference -- maybe a fine line -- between predicted and projected. Imo MD was projecting based on the stats, like taking known numbers and extending them forward on a timeline. But then he notes that "anyone can beat anyone," which is how it seems (except for Akron) this season is going.

Numbers are fun to play with but can make us crazy, and only when a game is over do we know for sure. I keep a lot of stats myself, but at the tipoff, I just enjoy the game and support the team. It's more fun that way.

Again, I just want the Huskies at least in the top 8 seeds so Northern can have a home game. If they make the top 4, terrific.

Because NIU is close underdogs in most of their final games does NOT mean they lose them all. If you have a 40% chance to win every game in a season you are arent going to lose all of them, you will win on average 40 percent of them. Based on above, on average I have NIU with close to 5 more wins which would put them at .500