It's the offseason, and baseball doesn't kick off for 3 more weeks, so what else have I got to do?

Every year I think about the strength of each team's OOC schedule. Wins for some teams will go farther than others. While I believe that our conference has the NY6 bid locked down with a perfect season by any team, how far can we actually go?

Today's polling question: Assuming an undefeated schedule, which AAC team would end up ranked the highest at the end of the year?

Feel free to weigh in on what you think that rank would be and/or your rankings from top to bottom.

(01-22-2020 02:27 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Assuming an undefeated schedule, which AAC team would end up ranked the highest at the end of the year?

Tough to say, but... Houston?

Out of conference, the Coogs play @Wash State and @BYU, plus UCF, @Cincinnati, @Navy, @SMU, and @Memphis in conference. 13-0 would be very impressive

Ok I am an idiot. I counted 11 teams and kept trying to figure out who got left out of the poll.

UNC starts out the year ranked and should be very good. GT should be improved as well since Collins has had another year to get more players to run his system. I’m biased obviously but I think UCF has the best ooc opportunities.

If Wash. St. and BYU perform to their potential I'd say Houston.

After that, any one of Navy, USF, Tulsa, or SMU.

(01-22-2020 02:46 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  If Wash. St. and BYU perform to their potential I'd say Houston.

After that, any one of Navy, USF, Tulsa, or SMU.

Yeah a lot of it depends on how you forecast the opponents, how much you think pre-season records of our teams will matter, etc.

Full disclosure, I actually listed them in my personal ranking. If Mississippi State takes a big step forward under Mike Leach, Northwestern is even a middling Big10 team, and Army is decent, Tulane's schedule could be a really good one. Very boom/bust though, because Miss St/NW are usually awful.

Non conference slate not very good next year overall as a conference. Navy and Notre Dame is one of are bigger out of conference games and that game is at the beginning of the year

As expected, with little exception, it looks like we're voting straight down party lines.

(01-23-2020 07:02 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Non conference slate not very good next year overall as a conference. Navy and Notre Dame is one of are bigger out of conference games and that game is at the beginning of the year

It's not great in the sense that there isn't really a statement game for any individual program. But these are winnable games against some bigger name schools. Take care of most of these and the conference as a whole gets a boost.

AAC survived a down Houston last year with improvements elsewhere. The conference needs UH back to at least 8-4ish.

Quick, everyone vote for your own team!

I picked Navy. Impressive team lately but really need that statement win.

If literally any other team had 1 more name brand P5 I'd pick them.

Of course I voted my alma mater but hear me out:

UC, Memphis and UCF will likely be ranked at various points next season. Nebraska, despite their 5-7 record will be ranked in the Top 25 to start the year because they are... well.... Nebraska. Their first three games are very winnable: Purdue, Central Michigan and South Dakota State. By the time their game rolls around with UC the Corn will probably be Top 15 (maybe higher). If UC wins this should put them up in that 15 range as well by week 4.

If UC then goes on to run the table and beat a ranked Memphis and UCF, along with Houston and the rest they will likely finish within the top 5, possibly in that 6-8 range.

(01-23-2020 04:06 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Of course I voted my alma mater but hear me out:

UC, Memphis and UCF will likely be ranked at various points next season. Nebraska, despite their 5-7 record will be ranked in the Top 25 to start the year because they are... well.... Nebraska. Their first three games are very winnable: Purdue, Central Michigan and South Dakota State. By the time their game rolls around with UC the Corn will probably be Top 15 (maybe higher). If UC wins this should put them up in that 15 range as well by week 4.

If UC then goes on to run the table and beat a ranked Memphis and UCF, along with Houston and the rest they will likely finish within the top 5, possibly in that 6-8 range.

Bhaaaaaaaaa

(01-23-2020 04:56 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(01-23-2020 04:06 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Of course I voted my alma mater but hear me out:

UC, Memphis and UCF will likely be ranked at various points next season. Nebraska, despite their 5-7 record will be ranked in the Top 25 to start the year because they are... well.... Nebraska. Their first three games are very winnable: Purdue, Central Michigan and South Dakota State. By the time their game rolls around with UC the Corn will probably be Top 15 (maybe higher). If UC wins this should put them up in that 15 range as well by week 4.

If UC then goes on to run the table and beat a ranked Memphis and UCF, along with Houston and the rest they will likely finish within the top 5, possibly in that 6-8 range.

Bhaaaaaaaaa

What’s so funny? You do not agree with my hypothetical?

(01-23-2020 08:06 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(01-23-2020 04:56 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(01-23-2020 04:06 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Of course I voted my alma mater but hear me out:

UC, Memphis and UCF will likely be ranked at various points next season. Nebraska, despite their 5-7 record will be ranked in the Top 25 to start the year because they are... well.... Nebraska. Their first three games are very winnable: Purdue, Central Michigan and South Dakota State. By the time their game rolls around with UC the Corn will probably be Top 15 (maybe higher). If UC wins this should put them up in that 15 range as well by week 4.

If UC then goes on to run the table and beat a ranked Memphis and UCF, along with Houston and the rest they will likely finish within the top 5, possibly in that 6-8 range.

Bhaaaaaaaaa

What’s so funny? You do not agree with my hypothetical?

I think the issue with your hypothetical is that Braska, your only OOC opponent with a name tag, is very very very unlikely to make a run at a Big10 championship. Even if they don't lose to Western Michigan and are ranked when they play Cincy, they will likely lose a bunch of Big 10 games after that.

Even if we think best possible case scenario where Braska wins the Big10 and their only loss if Cincy, and WMU wins the MAC with only two losses (Cincy and Braksa), think about the other matchups on the board.

Take ECU for instance (which I don't even think is one of the best on the board). SC winning the SEC and Marshall winning CUSA would trump Braska/WMU.

Others in best case scenarios:
UCF has a decent slate, but both P5's are lowly ACC Coastal teams. At best, they still play against each other.

USF could go far if they handed Texas their only loss, just because Texas seems to have magical polling powers of some kind.

Houston would make a great case if Wazzu won the PAC and BYU won all its other games. They play Utah, Mich State, Az State, Minnesota, Missouri, and Stanford this year (PS: BYU would probably outrank all of us if they randomly swept that schedule)

Tulane probably has the best possible resume if Miss State and Northwestern were surprise 1-loss conference champs.

(01-22-2020 02:44 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  UNC starts out the year ranked and should be very good. GT should be improved as well since Collins has had another year to get more players to run his system. I’m biased obviously but I think UCF has the best ooc opportunities.

Yeah.
You're biased.

UNC starts ranked?!? They're in about HALF of the "way too early" tables, so that's not a sure thing.
If GT doubles their wins...they're 4-8.

Meanwhile ND WILL start ranked, probably top 10.
Navy's win over 11-2 AF was the best OOC win for any non-contract-bowl-conference team in 2019. In 2020 we'll beat them on the road, so as long as they don't collapse in conference that will be another good one. .

(01-24-2020 08:24 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-22-2020 02:44 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  UNC starts out the year ranked and should be very good. GT should be improved as well since Collins has had another year to get more players to run his system. I’m biased obviously but I think UCF has the best ooc opportunities.

Yeah.
You're biased.

UNC starts ranked?!? They're in about HALF of the "way too early" tables, so that's not a sure thing.
If GT doubles their wins...they're 4-8.

Meanwhile ND WILL start ranked, probably top 10.
Navy's win over 11-2 AF was the best OOC win for any non-contract-bowl-conference team in 2019. In 2020 we'll beat them on the road, so as long as they don't collapse in conference that will be another good one. .

Agree with this one. ND being great next year, however, is a long shot. They have Clemson (at home, but Clemson), at Wisconsin in Lambeau in October, Stanford at home, and at USC. That's not your typical cupcake ACC schedule. If they lost to Georgia and Michigan last year, they'll likely lose to Clemson and Wisconsin this year.

But, again, in a best case scenario Navy could get way up in the rankings.

(01-24-2020 08:24 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(01-22-2020 02:44 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  UNC starts out the year ranked and should be very good. GT should be improved as well since Collins has had another year to get more players to run his system. I’m biased obviously but I think UCF has the best ooc opportunities.

Yeah.
You're biased.

UNC starts ranked?!? They're in about HALF of the "way too early" tables, so that's not a sure thing.
If GT doubles their wins...they're 4-8.

Meanwhile ND WILL start ranked, probably top 10.
Navy's win over 11-2 AF was the best OOC win for any non-contract-bowl-conference team in 2019. In 2020 we'll beat them on the road, so as long as they don't collapse in conference that will be another good one. .

Yeah for some reason I didnt see Navy’s, but I’d bet that UNC does start the season ranked, they demolished Temple to finish the year strong and return a big portion of their roster, including their superstar freshman QB. That’s a big statement game. I guess it’s hard to tell how good GT will be but they should be much improved this year, they signed a 4 star QB that flipped from FSU and the talent level should be much better. It’s also @GT.

No way I could vote for my Memphis Tigers. Our OOC schedule is very disappointing next year. Navy has my vote.

What this poll actually does is show the similarities in the schedules. They all pretty much include

One P5 school
Two G5 schools
One FCS school

Only Houston is different next season, and they played a FCS team this season. So, I'm not surprised everyone voted for their own teams, because all the schedules are similar and the conference as a whole doesn't benefit all that much from, say, Temple going 4-0 as opposed to Tulane, or UCF, or Cincy, or SMU.

I, of course, voted for SMU because after next year we will have a VASTLY different team going into 2021 with no real record of being able to rebuild, so SMU needs to be able to take advantage of Shane Buechele, Granson, Roberson, and the others while we have them. I distinctly told people at the beginning of the season that SMU isn't in a position to turn down a 10 win season and that going the transfer route, despite it's short term mentality, would be successful if they could get that two years in a row - and again, that was before the success of this past season. So I stand by my pick for my school.