(01-16-2020 09:18 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 05:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  IWokeUpLikeThis makes an excellent point by posting this:

"Dayton is a power-program in a non-power-conference."

Power is about resources/money or (for the ultimate "power") a combo of resources AND results.

Dayton can afford to pay its coach $1 million or more annually. It can average 10,000 fans or more per game. It has won lots of NCAA and NIT games. It is more so a "power program" than many programs in the so-called football P5.

Gonzaga, VCU, BYU, Memphis, Cincy, Wichita, Houston, Temple ... these are "power" (or "high-major" if you prefer) programs that are not members of power leagues.

This is a concept that some college sports fans fail to grasp. I recall when Xavier was a member of the A10 and was often "ranked" in some so-called Mid-Major Poll. X fans took exception — as they should have, as I did, too. XU has long been a power/high-major program that now happens to be in a power league (defined, in large part, by all of its members being high-major programs).

When Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette were in the old C-USA ... they were considered high-major programs — and rightly so — by people who "get it."

It continues to baffle me that some folks who follow sports don't understand this basic concept.

I loathe the term "power" or "power 5" in hoops. But I largely agree with your point.

I consider the A10 a major conference. As well as the AAC and the MWC.

Big East, SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 are "high majors".

However, these labels can be fluid. For example, last year the AAC was better than the Pac 12.

The AAC in basketball has far surpassed the A10 and MWC. The AAC is closer to the ACC this year than they are the A10.

There is consistent message board talk that Xavier would block Dayton's admission into the Big East (assuming that there would be an initial interest). Would Cincinnati feel the same way?

I do think, long-term, Saint Louis is a strong candidate for expansion to the Big East (Seton Hall and Butler have scheduled them non-conference home/home since the split), and I would think Saint Louis would prefer the Big East to the AAC due to membership. I question whether the AAC would want to take-in another member that would inevitably get poached by the Big East again. As Big East Football consistently saw, member turnover can be a competitive, financial and mental drain to a conference and its core. Heck, it is very likely Dayton, considering its institutional fit (and, like SLU, alumni numbers in the Midwest/East Coast), would take a BE invite as well (even in the AAC).

Perhaps that is why the Presidents/AAC Leadership have been resistant to multiple non-football members to prop-up basketball. VCU, conversely, is a much better long-term fit for the AAC than SLU/UD. I don't think the Big East would attempt to pursue them, even in the AAC, due to the proximity with Georgetown (who apparently pushed resistance against them when the C7 were looking for new members).

(01-16-2020 09:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 09:18 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 05:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  IWokeUpLikeThis makes an excellent point by posting this:

"Dayton is a power-program in a non-power-conference."

Power is about resources/money or (for the ultimate "power") a combo of resources AND results.

Dayton can afford to pay its coach $1 million or more annually. It can average 10,000 fans or more per game. It has won lots of NCAA and NIT games. It is more so a "power program" than many programs in the so-called football P5.

Gonzaga, VCU, BYU, Memphis, Cincy, Wichita, Houston, Temple ... these are "power" (or "high-major" if you prefer) programs that are not members of power leagues.

This is a concept that some college sports fans fail to grasp. I recall when Xavier was a member of the A10 and was often "ranked" in some so-called Mid-Major Poll. X fans took exception — as they should have, as I did, too. XU has long been a power/high-major program that now happens to be in a power league (defined, in large part, by all of its members being high-major programs).

When Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette were in the old C-USA ... they were considered high-major programs — and rightly so — by people who "get it."

It continues to baffle me that some folks who follow sports don't understand this basic concept.

I loathe the term "power" or "power 5" in hoops. But I largely agree with your point.

I consider the A10 a major conference. As well as the AAC and the MWC.

Big East, SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 are "high majors".

However, these labels can be fluid. For example, last year the AAC was better than the Pac 12.

The AAC in basketball has far surpassed the A10 and MWC. The AAC is closer to the ACC this year than they are the A10.

I'm using Real Time RPI because it's really the only place I know to find conference rankings based on data.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

But the AAC and A10 are practically equal in 7th and 8th place. The AAC has the SEC separating them at 6th from the ACC at 5th.

It's all just splitting hairs about who's better and by how much. Like I said it's fluid year to year.

But the top conferences most every year in any given order are A10, AAC, ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, MWC, Pac 12, and SEC. You could make an argument for WCC by the numbers but Gonzaga skews things for them.

These are the majors/high majors.

(01-16-2020 09:18 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 05:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  IWokeUpLikeThis makes an excellent point by posting this:

"Dayton is a power-program in a non-power-conference."

Power is about resources/money or (for the ultimate "power") a combo of resources AND results.

Dayton can afford to pay its coach $1 million or more annually. It can average 10,000 fans or more per game. It has won lots of NCAA and NIT games. It is more so a "power program" than many programs in the so-called football P5.

Gonzaga, VCU, BYU, Memphis, Cincy, Wichita, Houston, Temple ... these are "power" (or "high-major" if you prefer) programs that are not members of power leagues.

This is a concept that some college sports fans fail to grasp. I recall when Xavier was a member of the A10 and was often "ranked" in some so-called Mid-Major Poll. X fans took exception — as they should have, as I did, too. XU has long been a power/high-major program that now happens to be in a power league (defined, in large part, by all of its members being high-major programs).

When Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette were in the old C-USA ... they were considered high-major programs — and rightly so — by people who "get it."

It continues to baffle me that some folks who follow sports don't understand this basic concept.

I loathe the term "power" or "power 5" in hoops. But I largely agree with your point.

I consider the A10 a major conference. As well as the AAC and the MWC.

Big East, SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 are "high majors".

However, these labels can be fluid. For example, last year the AAC was better than the Pac 12.

ESPN mostly led the charge to separate the autonomy schools from the pack in all sports. As a guy who has followed UC athletics for years I noticed the change in reporting from 2012 (still in the Big East) to 2013. Suddenly the way they talked about UC you would think our basketball program was equivalent to Youngstown State.

This talk then boiled over into every day discourse. People now post on message boards, or talk freely that schools like UC and Memphis are mid majors, even though that is garbage.

(01-16-2020 11:00 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 09:18 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 05:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  IWokeUpLikeThis makes an excellent point by posting this:

"Dayton is a power-program in a non-power-conference."

Power is about resources/money or (for the ultimate "power") a combo of resources AND results.

Dayton can afford to pay its coach $1 million or more annually. It can average 10,000 fans or more per game. It has won lots of NCAA and NIT games. It is more so a "power program" than many programs in the so-called football P5.

Gonzaga, VCU, BYU, Memphis, Cincy, Wichita, Houston, Temple ... these are "power" (or "high-major" if you prefer) programs that are not members of power leagues.

This is a concept that some college sports fans fail to grasp. I recall when Xavier was a member of the A10 and was often "ranked" in some so-called Mid-Major Poll. X fans took exception — as they should have, as I did, too. XU has long been a power/high-major program that now happens to be in a power league (defined, in large part, by all of its members being high-major programs).

When Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette were in the old C-USA ... they were considered high-major programs — and rightly so — by people who "get it."

It continues to baffle me that some folks who follow sports don't understand this basic concept.

I loathe the term "power" or "power 5" in hoops. But I largely agree with your point.

I consider the A10 a major conference. As well as the AAC and the MWC.

Big East, SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 are "high majors".

However, these labels can be fluid. For example, last year the AAC was better than the Pac 12.

ESPN mostly led the charge to separate the autonomy schools from the pack in all sports. As a guy who has followed UC athletics for years I noticed the change in reporting from 2012 (still in the Big East) to 2013. Suddenly the way they talked about UC you would think our basketball program was equivalent to Youngstown State.

This talk then boiled over into every day discourse. People now post on message boards, or talk freely that schools like UC and Memphis are mid majors, even though that is garbage.

I agree with you. It's lazy journalism at best and bigger conspiracy at worst.

I don't think there will be any this year. I still think there will be discussion to make the AAC waiver CCG to all for conferences to go away from divisions. This move would likely kill all future expanasion. Just a SWAG.

(01-16-2020 11:43 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I don't think there will be any this year. I still think there will be discussion to make the AAC waiver CCG to all for conferences to go away from divisions. This move would likely kill all future expanasion. Just a SWAG.

Actually, I think divisionless opens the realignment floodgates. I believe it would lead eventually to a P2 (SEC and B1G), each with a four team Conference Championship Tournament. Those two would cherry pick the strongest brands from the other three autonomous conferences, and could eventually replace the CFP with a Bowl that matches their champions. That way, they wouldn't have to share the loot with anyone else and could let the AP, Coaches, etc. vote all they want for a "mythical" champion because fans are going to anoint the Bowl winner as the "real" champion anyway.

(01-16-2020 01:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 11:43 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I don't think there will be any this year. I still think there will be discussion to make the AAC waiver CCG to all for conferences to go away from divisions. This move would likely kill all future expanasion. Just a SWAG.

Actually, I think divisionless opens the realignment floodgates. I believe it would lead eventually to a P2 (SEC and B1G), each with a four team Conference Championship Tournament. Those two would cherry pick the strongest brands from the other three autonomous conferences, and could eventually replace the CFP with a Bowl that matches their champions. That way, they wouldn't have to share the loot with anyone else and could let the AP, Coaches, etc. vote all they want for a "mythical" champion because fans are going to anoint the Bowl winner as the "real" champion anyway.

I don't necessarily believe there would be mass realignment but it does allow for odd-numbered conference membership. Not that it wasn't possible before but it was incredibly tricky and only the MAC intentionally tried it with divisions. Without divisions, perhaps the SEC takes a look at ONLY expanding with Oklahoma or Texas. Both would be great but one or the other may want something else.

I'm curious on why people pick the AAC to add teams without football in consideration. Didn't the addition of non football school destroy the original big East? Witchita state only fits due to Navy being football only. Someone brought up Dayton would their football join from the Pioneer conference? I doubt they would want to come from non scholarship football to FBS football. It would take what 2-3 years to go scholarship football? They need this recruiting cycle to start the move. If Dayton does go scholarship football then money is taken from basketball.

(01-16-2020 02:08 PM)46566 Wrote:  I'm curious on why people pick the AAC to add teams without football in consideration. Didn't the addition of non football school destroy the original big East? Witchita state only fits due to Navy being football only. Someone brought up Dayton would their football join from the Pioneer conference? I doubt they would want to come from non scholarship football to FBS football. It would take what 2-3 years to go scholarship football? They need this recruiting cycle to start the move. If Dayton does go scholarship football then money is taken from basketball.

There are already 8 FBS schools in Ohio (Ohio State and UC, plus 6 MAC schools). Another one is not needed, in fact we probably need to see one or two drop to FCS.

LSU to the AFC South

(01-16-2020 02:08 PM)46566 Wrote:  I'm curious on why people pick the AAC to add teams without football in consideration. Didn't the addition of non football school destroy the original big East? Witchita state only fits due to Navy being football only. Someone brought up Dayton would their football join from the Pioneer conference? I doubt they would want to come from non scholarship football to FBS football. It would take what 2-3 years to go scholarship football? They need this recruiting cycle to start the move. If Dayton does go scholarship football then money is taken from basketball.

The difference in the American adding Dayton hoops and the old Big East is numbers.

The American would have 2 hoops only schools and 11 football schools.

The old Big East had 8 hoops only schools and 8 football schools.

I don't think the American adds anyone. There is actually strong incentive not to add anyone, as it looks like ESPN is going to let the contract stand as is, starting at $70.4M in 2020-21 and growing to $81.7M in 2025-26 (6th year) and eventually $97.5M in 2031-32 (12th year) for $1B total for 11 teams. Basically they are all splitting UConn's 12th share.

This makes sense from ESPN's standpoint if the American moves to 20 game round robin, as that provides 110 games, while the current 12 teams playing 18 games yields 108 games. So the inventory is essentially the same. Adding a 12th Basketball school returns one to the old format, which does not add much to the value of the league to ESPN. In Football there is a loss of 4 UConn home games, but that is not a huge concern. Losing UConn women is more of a concern, but not much since the audience for the women's game is pretty small. There is more inventory of women's basketball and other Olympic sports than will ever show up on the EPSN network.

Adding a VCU or Dayton in theory would help the American, but in reality probably not. The NCAA is not at all likely to give the American a 3rd at-large bid. For example this year Houston is sitting in the last 4 in or first 4 out territory according to NET, which would likely see them bounced by Dayton if they were in the American as well, but Houston would likely get in with no Dayton in the league. ESPN gains no benefit from having a 12th team as they have the same inventory, so no renegotiation to up the money, just everyone splits credits, distributions and TV money one more way.

The Big East situation with Connecticut is different, they have a built in revenue kicker of 10% for an 11th and 12th school. They would not be sharing any extra revenue. Fox is quite happy with this as they gain 20 Big East conference games in inventory (22% increase), but only pay 10% more.

Anyway, this has nothing to do with realignment coming this year. The P5 are stable, the G5 are stable (American and MWC new contracts, the rest have pretty close to zero media dollars after paying ESPN production fees -- they just view games as net "free" advertising for brand). So you have to look down in FCS, which gets less press. the WAC moves have already been long announced (leaving CSUB for Big West with UCSD coming in from D-II, UMKC going back to the Summit; coming in D-II move ups Dixie State and Tarleton State who will play FCS Independent). Bellarmine is moving up from D-II to join the ASUN. The Summit is also losing Purdue Ft. Wayne to the Horizon. The one in limbo is St. Thomas, waiting on a waiver to move from D-III to D-I Summit (Football in non-scholarship Pioneer, which is in effect staying D-III)

So there were quite a few moves these last years for the 2020-21 season. Realistically we'll see more this year, just not big names.

The WAC asked Montana in 2010 and offered to let them play Montana State annually but they declined the offer. Montana State denied any talks with the WAC back then. I’m sure they listened to what Karl Benson had to say but they were not going to make a move without Montana.

https://missoulian.com/news/local/no-to-...002e0.html

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/sp...03286.html

I think the odds on a move went way up today with Boise's noise on the MWC deal.

(01-17-2020 10:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the odds on a move went way up today with Boise's noise on the MWC deal.

Unlikely. Where are they going to go?

(01-17-2020 10:29 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 10:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the odds on a move went way up today with Boise's noise on the MWC deal.

Unlikely. Where are they going to go?

Independent or to the AAC, presumably. UConn leaves a spot for a 12th football team and it is indisputable that Boise would be the biggest fish in that pond.

(01-17-2020 11:31 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 10:29 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(01-17-2020 10:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the odds on a move went way up today with Boise's noise on the MWC deal.

Unlikely. Where are they going to go?

Independent or to the AAC, presumably. UConn leaves a spot for a 12th football team and it is indisputable that Boise would be the biggest fish in that pond.

The question was rhetorical.

As a man who follows both the AAC and the Big East, I would would be fine to see the following (but I realize it's not going to happen for either league):

The Big East adds Dayton, Saint Louis and Duquesne to get to 14.

Assuming the MWC programs, Army and BYU are all off the table ... The American adds VCU (all sports but football), App State (football only), Buffalo (all sports) and either Old Dominion (all sports) or UMass (all sports).

Again, this is wildly unrealistic (particularly for the American) but I would be fine with it.

Some moves are overdue, like the Patriot adding a football member or the WAC shedding Chicago State. I don’t think the AAC’s waiver is a forever thing, same as UConn football independence, whether in FBS or to FCS (hey, there’s your Patriot League member).

How’s that campaign doing in Stony Brook, and where will it take them? They did allude to something bigger and better than America East.

But the lowest hanging fruit is and probably will be WAC picking up new members so they can cover for ones dying to leave.