By my count, there are now 42 schools that have met the required 6 wins against qualifying opponents. Another 18 could gain eligibility this week. They are (potentials in parentheses):

ACC 4 (3): Clemson, Wake Forest, Pitt, UVa (BC, Louisville/Miami, Va Tech)
PAC 2 (2): Oregon, Utah (Washington, USC/Arizona St)
XII 4 (2): Oklahoma, Baylor, OK State, Kansas St (Texas, Iowa St)
B1G 7 (1): Penn St, Ohio St, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa (Illinois)
SEC 6 (0): Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, LSU
AAC 6 (1): Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Navy, Tulane, SMU (Temple)
MWC 4 (2): Air Force, Wyoming, Boise St, San Diego St (Nevada, Hawaii)
MAC 1 (2): Central Michigan (Toledo, Western Michigan)
USA 4 (3): FAU, Marshall, La Tech, UAB (Western Kentucky, FIU, So Miss)
SUN 3 (1): Louisiana, Georgia St, Appalachian St (Georgia Southern)
IND 1 (1): Notre Dame (Liberty)

After Week 11 last year there were 64 eligible, but only 2 more weeks to qualify instead of the three this year due to the extra bye week.

Missouri could reach the required 6 wins this week. They would only be eligible, though, if the NCAA either approves their appeal or fails to act on the appeal before the end of the season.

USF might sneak in the back door at 6-6. They are 5-4 with a win against Temple.

(11-04-2019 05:32 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  USF might sneak in the back door at 6-6. They are 5-4 with a win against Temple.

We have Temple, Cincy, Memphis, and UCF left. It will take a miracle for us to go 2-2 against those teams. 0-4 is the most likely result.

I'm all in favor or miracles, but .....

Western Michigan & Toledo now bowl eligible, after beating Ball St & Kent St, in Tuesday night MACtion.

MAC now w/ 3 (WMU, UT, & Central Michigan)

(11-06-2019 01:56 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Western Michigan & Toledo now bowl eligible, after beating Ball St & Kent St, in Tuesday night MACtion.

MAC now w/ 3 (WMU, UT, & Central Michigan)

Looks like Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo are likely to reach six wins as well. If so, IIRC, the MAC will have six eligible teams for five guaranteed slots, in which case a team will have to hope that the B1G or ACC can't fill the Quick Lane Bowl, or some other random slot opens up.

Which this year is likely.

(11-04-2019 02:52 PM)ken d Wrote:  Missouri could reach the required 6 wins this week. They would only be eligible, though, if the NCAA either approves their appeal or fails to act on the appeal before the end of the season.

I suspect the NCAA will deny their appeal, but they won't do it until they have to. They would prefer that Missouri just not reach six wins so the issue is moot. Also, no reason to act on the appeal now with a "no" which would be dispiriting to the players on the team for no good reason, and could affect their play in remaining games.

I bet they beat Arkansas the last game of the season to chalk up win #6, at which point their appeal will be denied.

(11-06-2019 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 01:56 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Western Michigan & Toledo now bowl eligible, after beating Ball St & Kent St, in Tuesday night MACtion.

MAC now w/ 3 (WMU, UT, & Central Michigan)

Looks like Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo are likely to reach six wins as well. If so, IIRC, the MAC will have six eligible teams for five guaranteed slots, in which case a team will have to hope that the B1G or ACC can't fill the Quick Lane Bowl, or some other random slot opens up.

Which this year is likely.

I think Eastern Michigan and Ball St could hit it as well, or even leave one of those other 6 home while they go.

All four schools that could become eligible by winning their weeknight game punched their ticket, bringing the total eligible to 46 going into Saturday.

Going into Week 12, there are 55 schools that have qualified for a bowl, and 21 who cannot reach the required six qualifying wins.

12 schools can qualify this week. They are (favorites in bold):

Louisville @ NC State
Florida St vs Alabama St (FCS)
California vs USC
Arizona State @ Oregon State
Texas Tech vs TCU
Iowa State vs Texas
Utah State vs Wyoming
Miami (O) vs Bowling Green
Buffalo @ Kent State
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern vs LA-Monroe
BYU vs Idaho State (FCS)

10 schools face elimination this week. They are (favorites in bold):

Syracuse @ Duke
West Virginia @ Kansas State
South Carolina @ Texas A&M
Ole Miss @ LSU
Houston vs Memphis
Bowling Green @ Miami (O)
Kent State vs Buffalo
Northern Illinois @ Toledo
Middle Tennessee St vs Rice
Texas State vs Troy

If all the favored teams win, there will be 65 teams eligible and 30 teams eliminated. At the same point in the regular season last year (two weeks to go) there were 64 and 31 - nearly the same. By the end of the season last year 81 teams qualified, more than enough to fill the bowls.

(11-12-2019 09:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  Going into Week 12, there are 55 schools that have qualified for a bowl, and 21 who cannot reach the required six qualifying wins.

12 schools can qualify this week. They are (favorites in bold):

Louisville @ NC State
Florida St vs Alabama St (FCS)
California vs USC
Arizona State @ Oregon State
Texas Tech vs TCU
Iowa State vs Texas
Utah State vs Wyoming
Miami (O) vs Bowling Green
Buffalo @ Kent State
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern vs LA-Monroe
BYU vs Idaho State (FCS)

10 schools face elimination this week. They are (favorites in bold):

Syracuse @ Duke
West Virginia @ Kansas State
South Carolina @ Texas A&M
Ole Miss @ LSU
Houston vs Memphis
Bowling Green @ Miami (O)
Kent State vs Buffalo
Northern Illinois @ Toledo
Middle Tennessee St vs Rice
Texas State vs Troy

If all the favored teams win, there will be 65 teams eligible and 30 teams eliminated. At the same point in the regular season last year (two weeks to go) there were 64 and 31 - nearly the same. By the end of the season last year 81 teams qualified, more than enough to fill the bowls.

Hawaii still needs 1 more win(they play 13 games).

(11-12-2019 09:06 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Hawaii still needs 1 more win(they play 13 games).

You are correct. I missed that. They can become eligible this week with a win over UNLV (2-7) on the road, or by beating either San Diego State or Army at home. They are a 6 point favorite this week.

Mid-Week Maction

Western Michigan clinches a bowl game w/ a win over Ohio tonight. Has 7 wins
Eastern Michigan climbs to 5 wins w/ a win over Akron tonight.

(11-12-2019 10:47 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Mid-Week Maction

Western Michigan clinches a bowl game w/ a win over Ohio tonight. Has 7 wins
Eastern Michigan climbs to 5 wins w/ a win over Akron tonight.

Not to count my chickens before they hatch, but Miami is also up 37 to 3 right before halftime so you can probably pencil us in for bowl eligibility. A win next week against winless Akron or a Buffalo loss tomorrow to Kent State clinches the East for us.

With two weeks to go in the regular season, 63 teams have qualified for a bowl game, compared with 64 at the same point last year. Including Missouri, there are 27 schools eliminated from contention unless there aren't enough eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots. Last year there were 31.

15 teams could potentially qualify this week (which would fill all the bowl slots). A whopping 27 face possible elimination. Last year, there were 71 eligible with one week remaining, and 34 were eliminated. That means that 25 schools did not know their fate until after their final game.

I posted it a few weeks ago, but here is a list of the top 80 APR teams (in order) that could conceivably fill a bowl slot at 5-7:

Duke (4-6)
Nevada (5-4)
Boston College (5-5)
MTSU (3-7)
Ohio (4-6)
Ole Miss (4-7)
Kent State (4-6)
Nebraska (4-6)
Army (5-6, 2 FCS wins)
Miss State (4-6)
Missouri (5-5)
Tennessee (5-5)
NC State (4-6)
USF (4-6)
Eastern Michigan (5-5)
North Texas (4-6)
UK (5-5)
Buffalo (5-5)
Syracuse (4-6)
Colorado State (4-6)
ULM (4-6)
South Carolina (4-7)

(11-17-2019 08:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  With two weeks to go in the regular season, 63 teams have qualified for a bowl game, compared with 64 at the same point last year. Including Missouri, there are 27 schools eliminated from contention unless there aren't enough eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots. Last year there were 31.

15 teams could potentially qualify this week (which would fill all the bowl slots). A whopping 27 face possible elimination. Last year, there were 71 eligible with one week remaining, and 34 were eliminated. That means that 25 schools did not know their fate until after their final game.

I have been saying for a couple weeks now that it looks like there will be fewer bowl eligible teams than available slots, something we haven't seen since 2016 (the last two seasons, there was the reverse, meaning some bowl eligible teams did not go to a bowl game). But, it is getting tighter. More of these basket-case teams seem to be making progress towards getting to eligibility, so for floaters like possibly Liberty it could get dicey.

(11-18-2019 10:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 08:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  With two weeks to go in the regular season, 63 teams have qualified for a bowl game, compared with 64 at the same point last year. Including Missouri, there are 27 schools eliminated from contention unless there aren't enough eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots. Last year there were 31.

15 teams could potentially qualify this week (which would fill all the bowl slots). A whopping 27 face possible elimination. Last year, there were 71 eligible with one week remaining, and 34 were eliminated. That means that 25 schools did not know their fate until after their final game.

I have been saying for a couple weeks now that it looks like there will be fewer bowl eligible teams than available slots, something we haven't seen since 2016 (the last two seasons, there was the reverse, meaning some bowl eligible teams did not go to a bowl game). But, it is getting tighter. More of these basket-case teams seem to be making progress towards getting to eligibility, so for floaters like possibly Liberty it could get dicey.

Of the 15 who could qualify this week, only three are favored. Seven are double digit underdogs. There's a good chance we head into the final week needing 10 schools to gain eligibility. My guess is that there will be close to 25 teams whose fate will be decided that week, so 40% need to win to fill all the bowls. It's going to be close.

I am predicting 78 Bowl eligible teams (with Missouri winning appeal)

The 15 I am predicting will make it:

AAC: No more
ACC: Winner of NCSU/UNC game
Big 12: TCU
Big 10: Michigan State
C-USA: Charlotte (UNT has about a 50/50 chance)
Indy: Liberty
MAC: Buffalo and EMU
MWC: SJSU
Pac 12: Cal and Wazzou (Arizona State 50/50)
SEC: TN, KY, Mizzou, Miss St
Sun Belt: CCU

Week 12 2016 70 teams were eligible
Week 12 2017 64 teams were eligible
Week 12 2018 71 teams were eligible
Week 12 2019 63 eligible.

Now consider that only 15 can get eligible this week
Week 13 2016 79 eligible
Week 13 2017 76
Week 13 2018 81

Barring a miracle Week 13 will be further off past year pace than Week 12 was.

(11-18-2019 04:13 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Week 12 2016 70 teams were eligible
Week 12 2017 64 teams were eligible
Week 12 2018 71 teams were eligible
Week 12 2019 63 eligible.

Now consider that only 15 can get eligible this week
Week 13 2016 79 eligible
Week 13 2017 76
Week 13 2018 81

Barring a miracle Week 13 will be further off past year pace than Week 12 was.

you have to remember, we're a week behind this year with the 14 week year vs 13 the last few years...