The only way a Group of 5 team makes the playoff in the current system is if there are multiple 2 loss conference champions and that undefeated G5 school would beat at least one P5 conference champ and another highly ranked team or 2 wins over P5 conference champs would do it for sure.

I think the issue with TCU/Baylor that year was the Big 12 office deciding who was the conference champion.

(10-17-2019 06:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 02:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 11:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 05:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 10:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Yes, I agree, I think Houston would have made the CFP had they run the table that year.

Coog and others want a handout - they want a guaranteed path to the playoffs without having to earn it. They want a gilded path where you don't have to prove yourself against tough P5 competition. But it's better if you have to play and beat good teams to be worthy of the playoffs because this isn't the NBA or NHL or NFL, where 40% to 50% of the teams get in. It's just 4 out of 132.

Really, the team with the most to complain about the past few years hasn't been UCF, they obviously have been unworthy of the playoff. No, it's Ohio State, arguably the most powerful single program in the country and a paragon of blue-blood. Yet that hasn't helped them make the CFP. E.g., last year Ohio State went 12-1 and won the B1G, and won the Rose Bowl, but were deemed not good enough for the CFP.

Bottom line is, if we were to make a list of say the 10 teams that were most deserving of the playoffs the past five years but were left out, all of them would be P5 teams, every single one.

The current CFP system is much harder on P5 than G5.

lol. I get it---when the facts dont support you--try to reframe the debate as a straw man argument. Its pretty obvious why you're forced to do that. The best a G5 can do is win all their games against the 66th best schedule in the land. Thats never going to be good enough. If you want to try to pass Bill Hancock propaganda off as reality, thats your business---but dont expect anyone with an IQ above the mid-two figure range to believe it. It is what it is. The current pinnacle of achievement or glass ceiling for a G5 is the access bowl under the current system. But hey--thats much better than it was just 2 decades ago.

The facts DO support me and do NOT support you. UCF was not the most deserving team left out of the playoffs in either 2017 or 2018. That's not a biased human claim, that's what the computers say.

lol...another swing and miss----But thank you for making my case for me. You are arguing that a G5 CAN get in while simultaneously arguing that undefeated G5 teams dont deserve to get in because their schedules are too weak. Make up your mind....

On the other hand---Im actually agreeing with your point to a degree. Im saying a G5 can never get in because, with at least 9 G5 teams on their 13 game schedule, they will always have too weak a schedule to make it in. The way the current system is being judged---with SOS as the primary screen, there is no way a G5 will ever have a final schedule SOS much above #66. A #66 SOS will always be framed as too weak a schedule when it comes to the final CFP "in or out" decision by a committee stacked with P5 representation. Like I said, it is what it is---there is no path for a G5 into the playoff as it is currently configured and judged.

Nope, as usual, I knocked it out of your park. I never said that any and all undefeated G5 do not deserve to make the playoffs. I've only said that UCF in 2017 and 2018 didn't deserve to get in. Other unbeaten G5 in other years, past or future, might deserve to get in. We would have to look at those teams in those years.

And, I've already addressed the issue of the overall SOS rating. The problem that G5 contenders face isn't overall SOS, it's that they have not faced the top-flight teams that would show you are worthy of competing with the best.

E.g., if we look at the schedules this year of teams like UCF and TCU, the difference isn't that UCF has played lousy teams, because TCU will have played lousy teams too. It's not that TCU has played pretty good teams, teams ranked between say 20 and 50, because UCF will have played pretty good teams too. The difference is, TCU will play Oklahoma, a top 10 team that is a contender for the playoffs, and also a Texas, a likely top 15 team, as well. Whereas UCF will not.

That's the difference that can keep a UCF out, not "overall" SOS. The committee wants to see results vs top teams.

That's why UCF has, IMO, made a mistake in their scheduling. They insist on their 1 for 1 policy, and that means they can't attract premier P5 teams, teams in contention for NY6 or playoffs. Other AAC teams have done so this year - USF played Wisconsin, Houston played Oklahoma, and Cincy played Ohio State, and Navy plays Notre Dame. If you play and win those games, then you have something to show the committee.

That's why i think Houston would have made the playoffs a few years back when they played Oklahoma and Louisville. OK was the Big 12 champ, and Louisville was a top-15 team with the Heisman winner. Win those, and I don't think it matters that your overall SOS is still in the 60s or 70s.

But you have to schedule those teams.

Your throwing out a highly unlikely scenario---and claiming it would make a difference when there is absolutely no evidence that it would. Thus far, there has been zero G5 teams in the playoff. Heck, the committee has only bothered to rank one G5 in the top 10 (and that required 2 years of undefeated play, a win over ranked Auburn, and even then the team just barely cracked the top 10). The committee is overwhelmingly dominated by P5 representatives. There is zero evidence that they would ever rank a G5 over a P5 champ or runner up---regardless of who they beat in one or two OOC games. Remember, a G5 champ getting in means TWO P5 champs (at a minimum) must be left out. Every argument the largely P5 membership of the Committee has ever made (full body of work, the "eye test", facing high quality competition week after week being different that doing it once, etc) makes it clear, regardless of any single big game, that there is no chance of a G5 making the CFP in the current system.

Until the current configuration of the CFP invites a G5, there is zero reason to believe your belief that somehow a single game is going to launch a G5 into the playoff in anything more than an outside the mainstream fantasy.

(10-18-2019 10:02 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 06:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 02:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 11:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 05:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  lol. I get it---when the facts dont support you--try to reframe the debate as a straw man argument. Its pretty obvious why you're forced to do that. The best a G5 can do is win all their games against the 66th best schedule in the land. Thats never going to be good enough. If you want to try to pass Bill Hancock propaganda off as reality, thats your business---but dont expect anyone with an IQ above the mid-two figure range to believe it. It is what it is. The current pinnacle of achievement or glass ceiling for a G5 is the access bowl under the current system. But hey--thats much better than it was just 2 decades ago.

The facts DO support me and do NOT support you. UCF was not the most deserving team left out of the playoffs in either 2017 or 2018. That's not a biased human claim, that's what the computers say.

lol...another swing and miss----But thank you for making my case for me. You are arguing that a G5 CAN get in while simultaneously arguing that undefeated G5 teams dont deserve to get in because their schedules are too weak. Make up your mind....

On the other hand---Im actually agreeing with your point to a degree. Im saying a G5 can never get in because, with at least 9 G5 teams on their 13 game schedule, they will always have too weak a schedule to make it in. The way the current system is being judged---with SOS as the primary screen, there is no way a G5 will ever have a final schedule SOS much above #66. A #66 SOS will always be framed as too weak a schedule when it comes to the final CFP "in or out" decision by a committee stacked with P5 representation. Like I said, it is what it is---there is no path for a G5 into the playoff as it is currently configured and judged.

Nope, as usual, I knocked it out of your park. I never said that any and all undefeated G5 do not deserve to make the playoffs. I've only said that UCF in 2017 and 2018 didn't deserve to get in. Other unbeaten G5 in other years, past or future, might deserve to get in. We would have to look at those teams in those years.

And, I've already addressed the issue of the overall SOS rating. The problem that G5 contenders face isn't overall SOS, it's that they have not faced the top-flight teams that would show you are worthy of competing with the best.

E.g., if we look at the schedules this year of teams like UCF and TCU, the difference isn't that UCF has played lousy teams, because TCU will have played lousy teams too. It's not that TCU has played pretty good teams, teams ranked between say 20 and 50, because UCF will have played pretty good teams too. The difference is, TCU will play Oklahoma, a top 10 team that is a contender for the playoffs, and also a Texas, a likely top 15 team, as well. Whereas UCF will not.

That's the difference that can keep a UCF out, not "overall" SOS. The committee wants to see results vs top teams.

That's why UCF has, IMO, made a mistake in their scheduling. They insist on their 1 for 1 policy, and that means they can't attract premier P5 teams, teams in contention for NY6 or playoffs. Other AAC teams have done so this year - USF played Wisconsin, Houston played Oklahoma, and Cincy played Ohio State, and Navy plays Notre Dame. If you play and win those games, then you have something to show the committee.

That's why i think Houston would have made the playoffs a few years back when they played Oklahoma and Louisville. OK was the Big 12 champ, and Louisville was a top-15 team with the Heisman winner. Win those, and I don't think it matters that your overall SOS is still in the 60s or 70s.

But you have to schedule those teams.

Your throwing out a highly unlikely scenario---and claiming it would make a difference when there is absolutely no evidence that it would. Thus far, there has been zero G5 teams in the playoff. Heck, the committee has only bothered to rank one G5 in the top 10 (and that required 2 years of undefeated play, a win over ranked Auburn, and even then the team just barely cracked the top 10). The committee is overwhelmingly dominated by P5 representatives. There is zero evidence that they would ever rank a G5 over a P5 champ or runner up---regardless of who they beat in one or two OOC games. Remember, a G5 champ getting in means TWO P5 champs (at a minimum) must be left out. Every argument the largely P5 membership of the Committee has ever made (full body of work, the "eye test", facing high quality competition week after week being different that doing it once, etc) makes it clear, regardless of any single big game, that there is no chance of a G5 making the CFP in the current system.

Until the current configuration of the CFP invites a G5, there is zero reason to believe your belief that somehow a single game is going to launch a G5 into the playoff in anything more than an outside the mainstream fantasy.

First, I agree with you that the CFP committee is top-heavy with members with P5 backgrounds. I agree the composition should be changed to bring in more members with G5 backgrounds.

But second, there is the appearance of bias (which is the concern I have with the current composition of the CFP) and actual bias. Sometimes, a committee can appear to be stacked to favor one group over another, and yet still do a fair, unbiased job.

In this case, all the evidence suggests that the CFP has in fact done just that. The CFP selections have basically comported with the results of the Coaches poll, a poll whose members are evenly distributed across P5 and G5**. It's comported with the AP poll, whose reporters have no apparent bias one way or the other, and it has comported with the computers, which have no weekly human bias at all.

Bottom line is, the reason that the CFP hasn't put a G5 team in the top 5 during the CFP era is the same reason that nobody would put them in the top 5 - not the AP, not the Coaches, and not the computers. That strongly suggests that no G5 team has belonged there.

So yes, the evidence does suggest that if a G5 team was deserving, they would get in to the playoffs.

Remember, with 4 teams out of 132, the bar is extremely high for *everyone*. It's not just the case that 65 out of 65 G5 teams have missed the playoffs, it's also the case that 56 out of 64 P5 teams have never made them either. That means only 12.5% of all P5 teams have ever made the playoffs even one time in five years. In fact, only four of them - Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma - have made the playoffs even twice. There have only been 20 playoff spots in five years of the CFP, and Alabama has grabbed five of them. Clemson another four. So that's two teams that have grabbed almost half of the available playoff spots. Not much left for others, P5 or G5.

Extremely high bar, so not surprising that G5 teams, that are categorically worse than P5 teams, have not met the standard.

** In 2017, when UCF went unbeaten including the Peach Bowl win, all 62 coaches voted Alabama #1 in their final poll. All of them, P5 and G5. In fact, six of the coaches in the poll were from the *AAC*, and every one of them voted Alabama #1 over UCF.

(10-18-2019 10:02 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Your throwing out a highly unlikely scenario---and claiming it would make a difference when there is absolutely no evidence that it would. Thus far, there has been zero G5 teams in the playoff. Heck, the committee has only bothered to rank one G5 in the top 10 (and that required 2 years of undefeated play, a win over ranked Auburn, and even then the team just barely cracked the top 10). The committee is overwhelmingly dominated by P5 representatives. There is zero evidence that they would ever rank a G5 over a P5 champ or runner up---regardless of who they beat in one or two OOC games. Remember, a G5 champ getting in means TWO P5 champs (at a minimum) must be left out. Every argument the largely P5 membership of the Committee has ever made (full body of work, the "eye test", facing high quality competition week after week being different that doing it once, etc) makes it clear, regardless of any single big game, that there is no chance of a G5 making the CFP in the current system.

Until the current configuration of the CFP invites a G5, there is zero reason to believe your belief that somehow a single game is going to launch a G5 into the playoff in anything more than an outside the mainstream fantasy.

It can happen and it probably will happen at some point. The top teams are just not losing games. Take the top five 2018 teams in the rankings at the end of the 2018 regular season. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame were all undefeated. Oklahoma and Ohio State each had one loss.

In the 2007 regular season, six of the top seven teams had two losses at the end of the regular season. Ohio State had one loss. LSU ended up beating Ohio State for the national championship, despite two losses. In 2009, at the end of the regular season, TCU out of the Mountain West was 12-0 and ranked #3, Cincinnati out of the Big East was 12-0 and ranked #4, and Boise State out of the WAC was 13-0 and ranked #6. It is going to happen at some point.

Right now, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma are too dominant. All four of these schools could end up the regular season unbeaten. It is just not possible for a G5 school to break through without some of these teams losing games during the regular season.

(10-19-2019 03:28 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2019 10:02 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Your throwing out a highly unlikely scenario---and claiming it would make a difference when there is absolutely no evidence that it would. Thus far, there has been zero G5 teams in the playoff. Heck, the committee has only bothered to rank one G5 in the top 10 (and that required 2 years of undefeated play, a win over ranked Auburn, and even then the team just barely cracked the top 10). The committee is overwhelmingly dominated by P5 representatives. There is zero evidence that they would ever rank a G5 over a P5 champ or runner up---regardless of who they beat in one or two OOC games. Remember, a G5 champ getting in means TWO P5 champs (at a minimum) must be left out. Every argument the largely P5 membership of the Committee has ever made (full body of work, the "eye test", facing high quality competition week after week being different that doing it once, etc) makes it clear, regardless of any single big game, that there is no chance of a G5 making the CFP in the current system.

Until the current configuration of the CFP invites a G5, there is zero reason to believe your belief that somehow a single game is going to launch a G5 into the playoff in anything more than an outside the mainstream fantasy.

It can happen and it probably will happen at some point. The top teams are just not losing games. Take the top five 2018 teams in the rankings at the end of the 2018 regular season. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame were all undefeated. Oklahoma and Ohio State each had one loss.

In the 2007 regular season, six of the top seven teams had two losses at the end of the regular season. Ohio State had one loss. LSU ended up beating Ohio State for the national championship, despite two losses. In 2009, at the end of the regular season, TCU out of the Mountain West was 12-0 and ranked #3, Cincinnati out of the Big East was 12-0 and ranked #4, and Boise State out of the WAC was 13-0 and ranked #6. It is going to happen at some point.

Right now, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma are too dominant. All four of these schools could end up the regular season unbeaten. It is just not possible for a G5 school to break through without some of these teams losing games during the regular season.

Thats a good point. We have got these teams like clemson and alabama that win 14 games, and ohio state and oklahoma win 12 or 13.

EG last year Ohio State went 12-1 but that wasnt good enough to make the playoffs because 3 teams, alabama, clemson, and ND had undefeated P5 seasons. That is just rare. That OSU team would have made the playoffs many times between 1990 and 2012.