bill dazzle
Craft beer and urban living enthusiast
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I Root For: Vandy/Memphis/DePaul/UNC
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 07:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: (10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: (10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).
But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).
Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.
Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.
Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP
How about these 3 scenarios:
Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU
versus either of the following three hypotheticals:
12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.
I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.
I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:
1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.
2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.
3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".
So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.
Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.
As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."
Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.
As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.
Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.
In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.
I would argue, and perhaps wrongly so, that a "brand" in one sport is fueled, in part, by a respective university's "overall brand." Houston has had Phi Slamma Jamma, Carl Lewis, Andre Ware, etc. It is much more academically respected than Boise. Simply put, the University of Houston in sports and academics is like the University of Florida compared to Boise State (no offense to BSU).
And Navy is, well, one of the most respected institutions in the country. The Midshipmen football program could lose to ND 1,000 times in a row and it will be respected and perceived as more "big time" than most other non-P5 programs, including Boise (in some respects).
So, "brand" for a sport can be defined in many ways. I do it somewhat broadly (perhaps, if I might criticize myself, TOO broadly). Perhaps you define it strictly. Regardless, it's very subjective.
Now you might be correct on the current "power program reputation" of Boise (I don't use "power school," as you know; Harvard is a "power school" that is not a P5, for example). None of the three football programs in question are true power programs but Boise is the closest to having that (of the trio) based on 21st century college football metrics. I'm with you on that, 100 percent.
I do feel lots of folks would prefer, to use your example, Navy vs. Auburn (as opposed to Boise vs. Navy). It would create the ultimate contrast.
Regardless, the NY6 bid is Boise's to lose. If the Broncos make it, I will cheer for them.
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