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OOC records: MWC vs AAC
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #81
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 12:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

If SMU is 13-0 or even 12-1 I think the committee is going to have a hard time sending someone else to the Cotton Bowl when they have the hometown ponies riding a feel good probation redemption story.

IMO, 13-0, quite possibly. 12-1, not a chance, vs an unbeaten Boise.
10-08-2019 01:35 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #82
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
If the Cotton Bowl comes down to 13-0 Boise or 12-1 AAC Champion.... that would be a very close call. Will depend a lot on how SOS is measured, on margins-of-victory, etc.

My hunch is that Boise would have a slight edge. But we’ll see. That scenario may or may not come about.
10-08-2019 02:43 PM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #83
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 02:43 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If the Cotton Bowl comes down to 13-0 Boise or 12-1 AAC Champion.... that would be a very close call. Will depend a lot on how SOS is measured, on margins-of-victory, etc.

My hunch is that Boise would have a slight edge. But we’ll see. That scenario may or may not come about.

Wonder who's more likely to sell tickets in Dallas - an undefeated Boise State or a 12-1 Southern Methodist? It's a different argument if that 12-1 team were Memphis or Cincinnati IMO...

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10-08-2019 02:49 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #84
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Not sure how anyone can decidedly say who the front runner is before the CFP rankings come out.
10-08-2019 03:47 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #85
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 10:20 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

That's actually the scenario I was thinking about. 12-1 Boise, 12-1 SMU/Memphis, or and undefeated App St. That would make for a pretty interesting debate (how UNC finishes will greatly impact it).

A very interesting debate, indeed.
10-08-2019 07:24 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #86
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

If Boise had pounded its opponents in a more impressive fashion than the one-loss AAC teams have done so to their foes ... Boise almost certainly gets the nod in this hypothetical. Many factors to ponder.
10-08-2019 07:26 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #87
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Also, I feel Boise has a good shot at going undefeated this season.

Agree that no one-loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise (unless there is something we can't foresee).
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2019 07:35 PM by bill dazzle.)
10-08-2019 07:32 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #88
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Also, I feel Boise has a good shot at going undefeated this season.

Agree that no one-loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise (unless there is something we can't foresee).

I agree with this.

Boise is no longer the "little engine that could." They're not the underdog. That lessens their brand appeal.

Navy, on the other hand, is the United States Navy. Two years from almost all of Navy's starters will be serving in the military. That's positive press all around. The Bowls would LOVE to have Navy in a NY6 game.
10-09-2019 12:18 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #89
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
It will be interesting to see what happens in the polls to the winner of the SMU-Memphis game. Does defeating the other AAC undefeated catapult the winner past Boise? Boise has some tests ahead of them, like Hawaii, but so far none of their MWC compatriots has been deemed top 25.

At this point the AAC has to hope that the SMU-Memphis winner goes undefeated and then beats a 1-loss Cincy or Temple in the CCG. That would provide them with the strongest possible case for the NY6.
10-09-2019 06:39 AM
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Post: #90
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 06:39 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It will be interesting to see what happens in the polls to the winner of the SMU-Memphis game. Does defeating the other AAC undefeated catapult the winner past Boise? Boise has some tests ahead of them, like Hawaii, but so far none of their MWC compatriots has been deemed top 25.

At this point the AAC has to hope that the SMU-Memphis winner goes undefeated and then beats a 1-loss Cincy or Temple in the CCG. That would provide them with the strongest possible case for the NY6.

remember the polls are utterly meaningless to this. It's the CFP committee that matters. And for them top 25 matchups mean a lot.

The Boise/SMU battle would be really interesting. Both have a ? OOC win in TCU for SMU, FSU for Boise. Both have a cross divisional opponent that could be good- Temple for SMU, Hawaii for Boise. The difference may be the CCG- SMU could get Cincy or even UCF(at 10-2)- with either one of them ranked. Boise's best hope would be a 11-1 San Diego St. Not sure they'd be ranked....

however, if it's Memphis that is undefeated(and remember, they host SMU)- they have a ? OOC opponent in Ole Miss. They get cross divisional not only Temple(away this Saturday), but also Cincy(at home). And then the CCG.

If Memphis goes undefeated, I don't know that there would be much that Boise could do. Memphis would have a great resume.
10-09-2019 07:37 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #91
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.

As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.

Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.

In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2019 08:01 AM by quo vadis.)
10-09-2019 07:42 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #92
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 07:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 09:57 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Seven very solid teams in the American this year (and Tulsa and Houston will perhaps be better than their likely eventual losing records will suggest).

But my gut tells me Boise runs the table (the remaining schedule is very manageable) and, at 13-0, gets the NY6 bid (would be deserving, too, as this seems a very good Boise team).

Too much parity in the AAC. I feel no team will be undefeated at year's end.

Wildcard scenario: Boise has one loss, no American team is undefeated and 12-0 App State plays on New Year's Day. Would be big for the Belt.

Bill Dazzle
May Ginger Baker RIP

How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.

As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.

Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.

In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.


I would argue, and perhaps wrongly so, that a "brand" in one sport is fueled, in part, by a respective university's "overall brand." Houston has had Phi Slamma Jamma, Carl Lewis, Andre Ware, etc. It is much more academically respected than Boise. Simply put, the University of Houston in sports and academics is like the University of Florida compared to Boise State (no offense to BSU).

And Navy is, well, one of the most respected institutions in the country. The Midshipmen football program could lose to ND 1,000 times in a row and it will be respected and perceived as more "big time" than most other non-P5 programs, including Boise (in some respects).

So, "brand" for a sport can be defined in many ways. I do it somewhat broadly (perhaps, if I might criticize myself, TOO broadly). Perhaps you define it strictly. Regardless, it's very subjective.

Now you might be correct on the current "power program reputation" of Boise (I don't use "power school," as you know; Harvard is a "power school" that is not a P5, for example). None of the three football programs in question are true power programs but Boise is the closest to having that (of the trio) based on 21st century college football metrics. I'm with you on that, 100 percent.

I do feel lots of folks would prefer, to use your example, Navy vs. Auburn (as opposed to Boise vs. Navy). It would create the ultimate contrast.

Regardless, the NY6 bid is Boise's to lose. If the Broncos make it, I will cheer for them.
10-09-2019 08:20 AM
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Post: #93
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 08:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:37 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  How about these 3 scenarios:

Undefeated Boise 13-0, best win is BYU or 6-6 FSU

versus either of the following three hypotheticals:

12-1 Cincinnati, only loss to top-4 Ohio State
12-1 Tulane, only loss to top-4 Auburn
12-1 Navy, only loss to Memphis, but has a win over top-10 Notre Dame
Any of these champs would have 2-3 wins over ranked AAC opponents.

I don't think Boise gets the nod over Navy or Cincinnati unless they're blowing everyone out. They might get in over Tulane on name brand alone.

I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.

As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.

Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.

In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.


I would argue, and perhaps wrongly so, that a "brand" in one sport is fueled, in part, by a respective university's "overall brand." Houston has had Phi Slamma Jamma, Carl Lewis, Andre Ware, etc. It is much more academically respected than Boise. Simply put, the University of Houston in sports and academics is like the University of Florida compared to Boise State (no offense to BSU).

And Navy is, well, one of the most respected institutions in the country. The Midshipmen football program could lose to ND 1,000 times in a row and it will be respected and perceived as more "big time" than most other non-P5 programs, including Boise (in some respects).

So, "brand" for a sport can be defined in many ways. I do it somewhat broadly (perhaps, if I might criticize myself, TOO broadly). Perhaps you define it strictly. Regardless, it's very subjective.

Now you might be correct on the current "power program reputation" of Boise (I don't use "power school," as you know; Harvard is a "power school" that is not a P5, for example). None of the three football programs in question are true power programs but Boise is the closest to having that (of the trio) based on 21st century college football metrics. I'm with you on that, 100 percent.

I do feel lots of folks would prefer, to use your example, Navy vs. Auburn (as opposed to Boise vs. Navy). It would create the ultimate contrast.

Regardless, the NY6 bid is Boise's to lose. If the Broncos make it, I will cheer for them.

I disagree with your last statement. With what Memphis has on it's schedule- SMU, Temple, Cincy, CCG- that is going to be awfully tough for Boise to top. It's possible all 4 of those games could wind up being ranked opponents. Boise just doesn't have that- they get unlucky that their cross division opponents aren't as good as what Memphis has.
10-09-2019 08:44 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #94
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 08:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 08:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 09:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I see that Aresco is already beating the drum about the strength of the AAC, and that a one-loss AAC champ should get in over an unbeaten Boise, but .... that is very wishful thinking, as in "it ain't happening". Here's why:

1) Boise has a very strong track record in NY6 games, and like it or not, track record matters. The CFP doesn't want to put a G5 in and see them get whacked badly, and Boise has a strong history of good performance.

2) Boise is a bigger brand name than all of those schools, even Navy.

3) Cincy and Tulane losses to Auburn and Ohio State are strong from a "good loss" POV, but weak from another: The CFP could easily say "well, you had your chance against NY6-level competition, and came up sorely lacking, so no need to give you another chance".

So, no one loss AAC is jumping an unbeaten Boise. But, the good news is, both SMU and Memphis are also unbeaten, so they would get strong consideration if they run the table. And, Boise is unlikely to go unbeaten, so the AAC is likely to get the NY6 spot anyway.

Overall, I would say about a 75% chance that the AAC champ gets the NY6 slot this year.

As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.

As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.

Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.

In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.


I would argue, and perhaps wrongly so, that a "brand" in one sport is fueled, in part, by a respective university's "overall brand." Houston has had Phi Slamma Jamma, Carl Lewis, Andre Ware, etc. It is much more academically respected than Boise. Simply put, the University of Houston in sports and academics is like the University of Florida compared to Boise State (no offense to BSU).

And Navy is, well, one of the most respected institutions in the country. The Midshipmen football program could lose to ND 1,000 times in a row and it will be respected and perceived as more "big time" than most other non-P5 programs, including Boise (in some respects).

So, "brand" for a sport can be defined in many ways. I do it somewhat broadly (perhaps, if I might criticize myself, TOO broadly). Perhaps you define it strictly. Regardless, it's very subjective.

Now you might be correct on the current "power program reputation" of Boise (I don't use "power school," as you know; Harvard is a "power school" that is not a P5, for example). None of the three football programs in question are true power programs but Boise is the closest to having that (of the trio) based on 21st century college football metrics. I'm with you on that, 100 percent.

I do feel lots of folks would prefer, to use your example, Navy vs. Auburn (as opposed to Boise vs. Navy). It would create the ultimate contrast.

Regardless, the NY6 bid is Boise's to lose. If the Broncos make it, I will cheer for them.

I disagree with your last statement. With what Memphis has on it's schedule- SMU, Temple, Cincy, CCG- that is going to be awfully tough for Boise to top. It's possible all 4 of those games could wind up being ranked opponents. Boise just doesn't have that- they get unlucky that their cross division opponents aren't as good as what Memphis has.


As a long-time fan of Memphis, I want the Tigers in the NY6 bowl. But, sadly, the Tigers are going to lose at some point. The Memphis defense is, shall I be nice and say ... modest (others would say horrible). Now if Memphis or SMU go undefeated, no doubt either will have played a tougher schedule than BSU and at 13-0 be as deserving as Boise (if not more so).
10-09-2019 08:50 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #95
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
You guys aren't going to change the anti-AAC sentiment of this forum. These are the same guys who argue that UConn has the best football program in the conference. Even if Boise loses and one of the AAC schools run the table, they will argue Boise or Appy State, or someone else is more deserving.
10-09-2019 08:55 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #96
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 08:50 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 08:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 08:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 07:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 07:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  As to Boise being a "bigger brand" than Navy (I assume you mean for football)..... Both Houston and Navy, if I'm not mistaken, have far more tradition than Boise and both have enjoyed lots of success over the years. They are much more "long-standing" brands than Boise. Houston has done some impressive work over the years and with lots of name coaches. Navy ... major tradition. Obviously, Boise has been an exciting brand for about 10 to 12 years. I guess it depends on how one defines "bigger brand."

Yes, I think Boise is a bigger brand than Navy or Houston. First, while Houston does have a much deeper history, particularly its time in the SWC, to me, they basically lost that history when the SWC folded in 1995. Unfair, but IMO that is the public perception, basically nobody (outside of Houston) remembers it.

As for Navy, while yes, their tradition goes back well over 100+ years, again much deeper than Boise's, it's primarily a "cupcake" tradition. Navy has definitely gotten more competitive the past 10 - 15 years, but the past 50 years what they were most known for was losing to Notre Dame about 40 straight times. Scheduling Navy was regarded as cupcake scheduling, despite our soft, patriotic spot in the heart we all have for them.

Boise OTOH has basically a "power" school reputation these days. IMO that's what the CFP wants in a NY6 game. Only UCF is a match for them in that department among other G5 teams, and UCF has knocked themselves out of contention.

In the end, I think a committee is much more likely to view say Auburn vs Boise as an attractive matchup rather than Auburn vs Navy. JMO, we shall see.


I would argue, and perhaps wrongly so, that a "brand" in one sport is fueled, in part, by a respective university's "overall brand." Houston has had Phi Slamma Jamma, Carl Lewis, Andre Ware, etc. It is much more academically respected than Boise. Simply put, the University of Houston in sports and academics is like the University of Florida compared to Boise State (no offense to BSU).

And Navy is, well, one of the most respected institutions in the country. The Midshipmen football program could lose to ND 1,000 times in a row and it will be respected and perceived as more "big time" than most other non-P5 programs, including Boise (in some respects).

So, "brand" for a sport can be defined in many ways. I do it somewhat broadly (perhaps, if I might criticize myself, TOO broadly). Perhaps you define it strictly. Regardless, it's very subjective.

Now you might be correct on the current "power program reputation" of Boise (I don't use "power school," as you know; Harvard is a "power school" that is not a P5, for example). None of the three football programs in question are true power programs but Boise is the closest to having that (of the trio) based on 21st century college football metrics. I'm with you on that, 100 percent.

I do feel lots of folks would prefer, to use your example, Navy vs. Auburn (as opposed to Boise vs. Navy). It would create the ultimate contrast.

Regardless, the NY6 bid is Boise's to lose. If the Broncos make it, I will cheer for them.

I disagree with your last statement. With what Memphis has on it's schedule- SMU, Temple, Cincy, CCG- that is going to be awfully tough for Boise to top. It's possible all 4 of those games could wind up being ranked opponents. Boise just doesn't have that- they get unlucky that their cross division opponents aren't as good as what Memphis has.


As a long-time fan of Memphis, I want the Tigers in the NY6 bowl. But, sadly, the Tigers are going to lose at some point. The Memphis defense is, shall I be nice and say ... modest (others would say horrible). Now if Memphis or SMU go undefeated, no doubt either will have played a tougher schedule than BSU and at 13-0 be as deserving as Boise (if not more so).

This week is huge for Memphis. @ Temple. Win there- look at their remaining schedule. Tulane home(and I can't believe I'm saying Tulane is a tougher opponent). SMU home. Cincy home. Road games are at Tulsa, Houston, and USF. Favored in every game the rest of the way.
10-09-2019 08:57 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #97
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
One thing that the AAC will have going for it- odds are really good if both are undefeated that SMU/Memphis game on November 2 will be the ESPN Gameday game and quite possibly the ABC Saturday Night Football game of the week. HUGE advantage for the AAC there I think. Especially since the first ratings release of the season for the CFP is November 5.
10-09-2019 09:02 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #98
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 09:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing that the AAC will have going for it- odds are really good if both are undefeated that SMU/Memphis game on November 2 will be the ESPN Gameday game and quite possibly the ABC Saturday Night Football game of the week. HUGE advantage for the AAC there I think. Especially since the first ratings release of the season for the CFP is November 5.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611709594d9296bacf1fa...=giphy.gif]
10-09-2019 09:25 AM
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Post: #99
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 09:25 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 09:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing that the AAC will have going for it- odds are really good if both are undefeated that SMU/Memphis game on November 2 will be the ESPN Gameday game and quite possibly the ABC Saturday Night Football game of the week. HUGE advantage for the AAC there I think. Especially since the first ratings release of the season for the CFP is November 5.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611709594d9296bacf1fa...=giphy.gif]

sorry but you don't think that having a national prime time game, and even game day wouldn't be a big deal? The only other good game for game day would be Georgia/Florida in Jacksonville(could see that if Florida beats LSU and both are still undefeated).
10-09-2019 09:29 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #100
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-09-2019 09:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 09:25 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 09:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing that the AAC will have going for it- odds are really good if both are undefeated that SMU/Memphis game on November 2 will be the ESPN Gameday game and quite possibly the ABC Saturday Night Football game of the week. HUGE advantage for the AAC there I think. Especially since the first ratings release of the season for the CFP is November 5.

sorry but you don't think that having a national prime time game, and even game day wouldn't be a big deal? The only other good game for game day would be Georgia/Florida in Jacksonville(could see that if Florida beats LSU and both are still undefeated).

If Florida and Georgia are undefeated, that game trumps Memphis vs SMU by a mile and a half, no contest.

Even if Florida loses to LSU, unless they get creamed, which is unlikely, they are unlikely to fall very far, probably to say #12.

So #3 Georgia vs #12 Florida is still a way bigger game than SMU vs Memphis, neither will be ranked anywhere near that high. Neither has ranked opponents between now and their game, so they will only rise by attrition. Plus Florida/Georgia is one of the big traditional rivalries in football.

IMO, thinking that ABC would make that a spotlight game over FL/UGA is very much pro - AAC wishful thinking, but hey, maybe we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2019 09:56 AM by quo vadis.)
10-09-2019 09:49 AM
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