Chances are a 2 loss AAC team would go before an undefeated SBC team. That's a shame.

(10-04-2019 11:15 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  Chances are a 2 loss AAC team would go before an undefeated SBC team. That's a shame.

Clearly I’m biased, but undefeated App State with an ACC and SEC win would easily get the NY6 spot over a two loss AAC team.

(10-04-2019 10:49 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  I think it's safe to say UCF is completely out of the conversation now.

I'd say it's down to Boise State, SMU, Memphis, and App State.

I'm thinking at least one of the 4 wins out. I think whichever team wins out gets the NY6 bowl.

SMU and Memphis will cancel each other out.

(10-05-2019 07:54 AM)Appst94 Wrote:  

(10-04-2019 10:49 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  I think it's safe to say UCF is completely out of the conversation now.

I'd say it's down to Boise State, SMU, Memphis, and App State.

I'm thinking at least one of the 4 wins out. I think whichever team wins out gets the NY6 bowl.

SMU and Memphis will cancel each other out.

Therefore, we need Boise to be Boise and drop a game or two that they shouldnt

Will be interesting to see tomorrow if App leapfrogs UCF in the AP poll.

In a few weeks the AP poll will be meaningless, but until the first CFP poll is released its the best indicator we have of the current "rankings" for the NY6 game.

Before UCF's loss the rankings were:
1. Boise
2. UCF
3. SMU
4. Memphis
5. App
6. Army
7. Tulane

UCF was ranked 18th and App 28th. Will the loss to Cinci be enough to get App ahead of UCF on a bye week? Could be close.

Edit: And where does Cinci pencil in also? They weren't receiving votes this week but likely will tomorrow.

(10-05-2019 10:14 AM)_x_ Wrote:  1. Boise
2. UCF
3. SMU
4. Memphis
5. App
6. Army
7. Tulane

Boise is at UNLV. They should roll.
UCF lost to Cinci last night.
SMU hosts Tulsa tonight. They should win but Tulsa is capable of an upset there.
Memphis is at ULM. Go warhawks.
App on bye.
Tulane is at Army today. That will be a big G5 game today.

Does the NY6 G5 rep have to be #12 or better, or am I thinking of something else?

(10-05-2019 11:18 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Does the NY6 G5 rep have to be #12 or better, or am I thinking of something else?

Don't know what you're thinking about.

NY6 rep is the highest ranked G5 conference champion.

Also, interesting note, if a G5 ever makes the playoff, there will be no other G5 rep in the NY6 since the requirement would be satisfied. That was what made the "UCF in the playoff" discussion interesting to me.

(09-22-2019 03:21 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Sunny do you have a team or just enjoy pissing on everyone?

I'm going out on a limb here and saying both. Has no team, enjoys pissing on everyone.

Sad.

Right now the only playoff locks are undefeated champions from the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten. After the "Power 3" champs, who gets the fourth spot? Likely Clemson or an at-large from these conferences. Past that... there is THIS LIST:

Added the ACC to the below list because, surprisingly, Clemson is not a lock if they win out. Every team slips a little from last week; Temple is the only team who slipped out, without losing.

playoff chance if win out (win out chance)
94.7% (48.96%) Clemson
26.1% (0.65%) Memphis
22.3% (0.94%) SMU
3.5% (10.87%) Notre Dame
3.0% (4.88%) Oregon
2.5% (23.51%) Cincy
1.6% (20.57%) App St
0.4% (4.86%) Utah
0.1% (19.84%) Boise St
1+/10,000 (Wake Forest, Arizona St, Tulane, Virginia, USC)

App State is still hanging on, though an undefeated AAC team is the only feasible playoff buster. For comparison, here are the NY6 chances. I count a 4% chance the Cotton features 2 of these teams (likely App St vs. Boise or Cincy, the 2010 Fiesta Bowl all over again). This simulation may overvalue App State compared to what we've seen from pollsters. It has them ranked #19, Cincy #17, Boise #21, Memphis #27, and SMU #30.

NY6 chance
47% Cincy
25% App St
12% Boise
8% SMU
7% Memphis
2% UCF
2% Tulane
1% Temple