(09-23-2019 09:15 AM)KJ Eagle Wrote:  Boy, I sure would hate it if someone....cough, cough....came along and beat Appy in late October at home to mess up their chances of being ranked and potentially in a NY6 game....cough, cough.

Before anyone says it, yes we have a long way to go before that happens. But stranger things have happened in this rivalry.

1: In Boone
2: On Halloween (spooky)
3: Hunger for revenge

My guess is a NY6 game for a Sun Belt team basically comes down to our champ having fewer losses than the AAC and MWC champs (currently an undefeated Sun Belt team wouldn't get in over an undefeated AAC or MWC team, 1 loss SBC team wouldn't get in over 1 loss AAC/MWC team, etc.) and still having to beat out the CUSA and MAC champs through a better conference-wide non-conference record if tied. Which isn't a guarantee either, but I'd like to think if App were to go 13-0 they'd get in over an undefeated MAC or CUSA team this year given their non-conference performances relative to ours.

That said, I highly doubt App goes 13-0. Far too much parity in the conference this year and still have to deal with SC in non-conference play.

App St is still behind 1 loss UCF. I could see them winning out and staying in front of App St even if they don't loss cause bias. Boise St will be hard to pass too.

Yeah in the polls UCF is ranked 22/23rd. App is 32/33? So a full 10 spots behind 1 loss UCF right now.

With Boise at 15/16 there's prob a good chance App wouldn't pass them up either if they lose depending on who they lost to.

Best case scenario may be anarchy in the conference championship games.

(09-22-2019 03:21 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Sunny do you have a team or just enjoy pissing on everyone?

Telling the truth is "pissing" on you? There's zero chance App could make the playoffs and as of today if UCF wins the AAC or Boise wins the MWC there's zero chance you make the NY6. I mean, these are facts. Why be salty? You're still not even ranked.

Guys it’s September, lots of football it get too deep into this. App has to have a perfect season in an improved conference based on results thus far.

According to the polls today, Boise, UCF, Memphis and SMU are ranked above App. Tulane and Navy are right behind. Most likely, if Boise wins the MWC or any of the aforementioned teams in the AAC win out they're in. That's not hate that's just what it is.

(09-23-2019 05:50 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  

(09-22-2019 03:21 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Sunny do you have a team or just enjoy pissing on everyone?

Telling the truth is "pissing" on you? There's zero chance App could make the playoffs and as of today if UCF wins the AAC or Boise wins the MWC there's zero chance you make the NY6. I mean, these are facts. Why be salty? You're still not even ranked.

Please don’t believe I’m salty about your post. You don’t have a dog in the fight and choose to troll boards. Man life isn’t that bad, I feel sorry for you.

Let’s discuss the facts. 0% chance is hyperbole, take a basic math course.

Fact is App in September is one of the four most likely NY6 G5 candidates. That is awesome! Premature, but fun to dream and we’re one of very few fanbases that can say that.

Good luck finding something that brings as much joy in your sports life as App has brought to mine, especially the last 15 years, quite the ride!

(09-23-2019 05:56 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  According to the polls today, Boise, UCF, Memphis and SMU are ranked above App. Tulane and Navy are right behind. Most likely, if Boise wins the MWC or any of the aforementioned teams in the AAC win out they're in. That's not hate that's just what it is.

Let me guess. You also think CUSA’s champion would have a better shot than App “cuz perception”

This playoff talk is crazy anyway. We are just getting into conference play. Can we just see how at least October goes first? App has anything but a cake walk this year. And frankly Coastal has me a bit worried.

The ultimate goal is a New Year's Six bowl. The playoffs are out of reach until we start beating multiple top 15 teams out of conference AND go undefeated in the Sun Belt, which App has yet to do.

The only Group of Five team in the playoff era that I think could have potentially made the playoff is that Houston team from a few years back. They opened with a win over Oklahoma, who went on to win the Big 12, and the beat Heisman-winning Lamar Jackson & Louisville later in the year. Problem is they went like 5-3 in the AAC and didn't even win their division. Had they gone undefeated, I could have seen that particular team getting into the playoff.

UCF never had those types of non-conference wins. App State, with wins over unranked No. Carolina and So. Carolina, wouldn't either.

(09-24-2019 12:01 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The ultimate goal is a New Year's Six bowl. The playoffs are out of reach until we start beating multiple top 15 teams out of conference AND go undefeated in the Sun Belt, which App has yet to do.

The only Group of Five team in the playoff era that I think could have potentially made the playoff is that Houston team from a few years back. They opened with a win over Oklahoma, who went on to win the Big 12, and the beat Heisman-winning Lamar Jackson & Louisville later in the year. Problem is they went like 5-3 in the AAC and didn't even win their division. Had they gone undefeated, I could have seen that particular team getting into the playoff.

UCF never had those types of non-conference wins. App State, with wins over unranked No. Carolina and So. Carolina, wouldn't either.

An undefeated Sun Belt team will not sniff a 4 team playoff no matter how much we wish it to happen. It's just not going to happen. The powers that be will never let it. They have all the gold and you know what they say about the Golden Rule....those with the gold get to make the rules.

Coastal Carolina is the most well rounded team that we have faced season to date. The continued hype over UNC-CH is worrisome.

(09-24-2019 07:26 AM)KJ Eagle Wrote:  

(09-24-2019 12:01 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The ultimate goal is a New Year's Six bowl. The playoffs are out of reach until we start beating multiple top 15 teams out of conference AND go undefeated in the Sun Belt, which App has yet to do.

The only Group of Five team in the playoff era that I think could have potentially made the playoff is that Houston team from a few years back. They opened with a win over Oklahoma, who went on to win the Big 12, and the beat Heisman-winning Lamar Jackson & Louisville later in the year. Problem is they went like 5-3 in the AAC and didn't even win their division. Had they gone undefeated, I could have seen that particular team getting into the playoff.

UCF never had those types of non-conference wins. App State, with wins over unranked No. Carolina and So. Carolina, wouldn't either.

An undefeated Sun Belt team will not sniff a 4 team playoff no matter how much we wish it to happen. It's just not going to happen. The powers that be will never let it. They have all the gold and you know what they say about the Golden Rule....those with the gold get to make the rules.

If an undefeated UCF team got snubbed, a Sunbelt team won't make it until they expand the playoffs.

And undefeated Sun Belt team not starting the season ranked would have a hard time getting into the NY6 bowl above a 1 loss AAC or MWC school.

What a 13-0 Sun Belt team would need is chaos in the MWC and AAC championship game.


Let's not BS around. A NY6 game is all G5er's goals and is essentially the Super Bowl for the G5 team.

(09-23-2019 10:05 PM)Goronic Wrote:  This playoff talk is crazy anyway. We are just getting into conference play. Can we just see how at least October goes first? App has anything but a cake walk this year. And frankly Coastal has me a bit worried.

Yea, but what's the fun in being logical and realistic??? We just beat a mediocre ACC team, so humbleness is out the door. We are now world conquers! Eat, drink, and be merry!

Waaaaaay too early.......[/i]

(09-24-2019 10:11 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  And undefeated Sun Belt team not starting the season ranked would have a hard time getting into the NY6 bowl above a 1 loss AAC or MWC school.

What a 13-0 Sun Belt team would need is chaos in the MWC and AAC championship game.


Let's not BS around. A NY6 game is all G5er's goals and is essentially the Super Bowl for the G5 team.

Agreed

https://cfbcomputer.wordpress.com/week-5...ff-data-2/

Added the Pac-12 teams to this. Could add the non-Clemson ACC teams too. Figure teams without multiple losses from the ACC/B12/BT/SEC are near guaranteed to make the playoff. After that (and after 2-loss champs from these conferences) some of these teams below may have a chance.

playoff chance if win out (win out chance)
27.7% (0.54%) Memphis
26.4% (0.53%) SMU
6.1% (1.63%) Oregon
5.5% (0.18%) California
4.6% (7.52%) Washington
4.5% (10.3%) Cincy
3.7% (0.53%) Arizona St
3.6% (10.72%) Notre Dame
1.9% (22.69%) App St
1.4% (4.04%) Utah
0.9% (17.46%) Boise St
<1% (14.07%) UCF
<1% (0.31%) USC
<1% (0.31%) Temple

It looks like App State's numbers were halved this week. "Chalk" at top is often the blame for this. Would have been nice for Clemson to have fallen, to UNC no less.

I think it's safe to say UCF is completely out of the conversation now.

I'd say it's down to Boise State, SMU, Memphis, and App State.

I'm thinking at least one of the 4 wins out. I think whichever team wins out gets the NY6 bowl.