Statefan
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RE: P5: It’s mostly about the company you kept pre-1945
(08-13-2019 07:43 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: (08-12-2019 10:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: It's mostly about being a flagship (34 of them):
Cal, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, LSU, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri
Or being a high budget, high profile athletics private school (13 of them):
Stanford, Southern Cal, TCU, Baylor, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake, Miami, Duke
I am going to throw one (1) specialty Engineering public school in with the privates:
Georgia Tech
We have at this point accounted for 48 schools. 28 of the 48 are AAU schools.
We then look at land grant schools, the "states" type schools of which there are 12:
Washington State, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Clemson.
The remaining 5 includes three "State" schools of enormous size, literally "best of breed":
NC State, Arizona State, Florida State
The final two: Louisville, Texas Tech
32 of the 65 are AAU.
Similar schools who didn't make the cut:
UConn, BYU, Colorado State, Tulane, Rice
Of the above group UConn and BYU look the most like the P5, but UConn abandoned P5 aspirations with the Big East move. They started FBS football too late to make the cut (same for UMass). Tulane and Rice kind of fell out of major status over the decades.
When you look at the rest, they seem to be trying to get in on the "Louisville exception"; that is being so important in athletics it overrides everything else. Memphis, Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV all fall in that category. Houston, Cincy and perhaps Temple fall into a better version academically than Louisville. UCF and USF (and ECU) may be most comparable to the Texas Tech category, being directional, that is "other big State Universities than flagships or land grant".
The question is, are any of UCF, Houston, Cincy, USF big enough to overcome being the "Louisville" category to get into P5?
No. It's about being the number and wealth of your loyal alumni. "number" "wealth" and "loyalty" are the 3 keys.
Size helps - a lot. Academic prestige increase the wealth of your alumni. Being private typically makes the alumni more loyal.
"Flagship" or "land grant" status don't mean anything. "Flagship" status didn't help Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, or New Mexico. Montana and Idaho actually got demoted from the big-boy table in the 1950s. "Land grant" status didn't help New Mexico State, Utah State, or Colorado State.
That's why schools like Pitt, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, NC State, Texas Tech, and Florida State got in. Public, not flagship, not land grant. But they've got lots of rich, loyal alumni.
Being "rich and private" didn't help Tulsa, Rice, or Richmond because they're too small. Being "large and private" like Syracuse or Northwestern (which are bigger than many flagship SEC and Big 12 schools) is more important.
By that measure (large number of rich and/or loyal alumni), the next schools in should be Cincinnati, SDSU, Houston, USF, UCF, and maybe Hawai'i and Memphis (whose alums are more loyal but less numerous). It's no coincidence that those are the exact schools that people are talking about in P5 expansion, except Hawai'i and SDSU which are too geographically remote.
And it's why UMass and UConn are not on anyone's list - UConn is actually about the same size as Syracuse and Memphis but only has an average level of alumni loyalty, and UMass doesn't have the loyalty of its alums the way most other similar-sized schools do.
NC State is both Land Grant and Flagship in NC.
UNC-Ch has no Engineering School, Agricultural School, Vet School, etc. In 1931 UNC and NC A&M were combined with the Woman's College (UNC-G) and made to split out programs. That's why NC State has no Med School, no Law School, and no Nursing School.
Actually it's mostly about the company you kept pre-1933.
If your were in the PCC, Big 10, Southern Conference, Southwest Conference, Big 6 in 1933 you are in the P-5 today with the exception of Idaho, Montana, Chicago, Rice, SMU,Tulane, Sewanee, VMI, and Washington and Lee.
50 of the current 65 were in those five conferences. Another 5 Utah, Colorado, TT, Arizona, and ASU were in quasi-major Mountain related conferences. That's 55 of 65.
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 01:31 PM by Statefan.)
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