How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season? Which conference has the most?

Well I’d like to think Houston beats Oklahoma, thats one right there

(08-05-2019 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season? Which conference has the most?

Cincinnati over UCLA, that's 2.

Cincinnati beats Ohio st... 3
Houston beats Washington st...4
So that’s 4 for the AAC to start with

16 regular-season wins for the G5 over the P5 last year, if I did my math correct. Forgive me if my math is off. Although not all those wins were upsets, by any means.

16 possibilities for 2019 (9 AAC, 4 MWC, 1 C-USA, 1 MAC, 1 Sun Belt) below. Some of these will miss, of course, but I'd guess that if we revisit this in November the majority of these happen (and conversely, some games not on this list will happen).

(1,2) Temple over each of Maryland and Georgia Tech.
(3,4) UCF over each of Stanford and Pittsburgh.
(5,6) South Florida over each of Wisconsin and Georgia Tech.
(7) Memphis over Ole Miss.
(8) Cincinnati over UCLA.
(9) Houston over Washington State.

(10) Hawaii over Oregon State.
(11) Utah State over Wake Forest.
(12) Fresno State over Minnesota.
(13) Boise State over Florida State.

(14) North Texas over California.

(15) Eastern Michigan over Illinois.

(16) Appalachian State over North Carolina.

How many were there last year?

You cannot predict them ahead of time. UCLA got better as the season wore on. They have a lot more NFL talent than Cincy. I Expect Chip Kelly will win the rematch on the Ohio River.

Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative. Separation is in TV dollars yes, but definitely overlap on the field.

(08-05-2019 09:27 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  16 regular-season wins for the G5 over the P5 last year, if I did my math correct. Forgive me if my math is off. Although not all those wins were upsets, by any means.

16 possibilities for 2019 (9 AAC, 4 MWC, 1 C-USA, 1 MAC, 1 Sun Belt) below. Some of these will miss, of course, but I'd guess that if we revisit this in November the majority of these happen (and conversely, some games not on this list will happen).

(1,2) Temple over each of Maryland and Georgia Tech.
(3,4) UCF over each of Stanford and Pittsburgh.
(5,6) South Florida over each of Wisconsin and Georgia Tech.
(7) Memphis over Ole Miss.
(8) Cincinnati over UCLA.
(9) Houston over Washington State.

(10) Hawaii over Oregon State.
(11) Utah State over Wake Forest.
(12) Fresno State over Minnesota.
(13) Boise State over Florida State.

(14) North Texas over California.

(15) Eastern Michigan over Illinois.

(16) Appalachian State over North Carolina.

I counted 17 regular season and 2 bowl wins. Fresno (12-2) beat Arizona St (7-6) and Cincinnati (11-2) beat Virginia Tech (6-7) in bowls.

The combined record of the 19 G5 winners was 153-94, while the combined record of the P5 losers was 87-149.

Three of the P5 losers finished the season with a winning record. The best of these was Northwestern (9-5) whose early season loss to Akron (4-8) was truly an upset. Arizona State (7-6) lost to both Fresno (12-2) and San Diego St (7-6) - not exactly upsets in my book. Georgia Tech (7-6) lost to USF (7-6).

I would say that Purdue's (6-7) loss to Eastern Michigan (7-6) would be considered a mild upset, though at the time it seemed bigger. Virginia Tech's (6-7) loss to ODU (4-8) was surely a major upset.

Two 3-9 G5's (ECU and Colorado State) had P5 wins, but both were over 2 win teams (UNC and Arkansas).

Bottom line, three upsets in 100 games. All told, G5 teams won 1 in 5 matchups against P5 opponents. The AAC (8) and MWC (5) accounted for two thirds of the G5 wins.

(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative.

That is true -- if a good G5 team beats a bad P5 team, the reaction should be, "No big deal, my team was expected to win that game, and it would have been embarrassing to lose that game."

But too often, fans of the G5 teams, and even coaches, crow over that win as much as if they'd beaten Oklahoma instead of Kansas. "We took down a team from the mighty Big 12!!!" If enough people act like their team's win over Kansas is a huge upset, then no one should be surprised if someone in the media writes it up as if it was an upset.

This thread will be a moot point come 2025 because the A5 will be playing only A5 teams, all 32 of them

(08-06-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative.

That is true -- if a good G5 team beats a bad P5 team, the reaction should be, "No big deal, my team was expected to win that game, and it would have been embarrassing to lose that game."

But too often, fans of the G5 teams, and even coaches, crow over that win as much as if they'd beaten Oklahoma instead of Kansas. "We took down a team from the mighty Big 12!!!" If enough people act like their team's win over Kansas is a huge upset, then no one should be surprised if someone in the media writes it up as if it was an upset.

Playing devil's advocate...

G5 fans have to hear the rest of the year what trash their football program is and how every P5 program is the cat's of the meow. They are bombarded with this in traditional media, on social media, at the office, in their neighborhood, by a family member who is a t-shirt fan of a different school, etc. Excuse us for getting excited for beating a team that we are told prior to the game is going to kick our arse by multiple TDs.

Last year UC played UCLA to open the season. We were told by the talent on College Gameday it was going to be a slaughter. Desmond Howard started laughing at us. He said Chip Kelly was going to rest his starters after halftime. We didn't beat them on a Hail Mary Pass or some other trickeration play... we punched them in the mouth and ran the ball and played hard-nosed defense.

Rice will beat Texas.







Hey, stop laughing...

(08-06-2019 12:18 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Rice will beat Texas.







Hey, stop laughing...

Iam not laughing, heck I think it would be great if you beat them
Get er done screech

As has been stated, many so called G5/P5 games are not upsets. I remember a couple years ago when USF beat Illinois by like 30 some points (and were favored to win by like 17 or something like that). That was not an upset. It would have been a HUGE upset if Illinois had beaten USF.

(08-06-2019 12:10 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(08-06-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative.

That is true -- if a good G5 team beats a bad P5 team, the reaction should be, "No big deal, my team was expected to win that game, and it would have been embarrassing to lose that game."

But too often, fans of the G5 teams, and even coaches, crow over that win as much as if they'd beaten Oklahoma instead of Kansas. "We took down a team from the mighty Big 12!!!" If enough people act like their team's win over Kansas is a huge upset, then no one should be surprised if someone in the media writes it up as if it was an upset.

Playing devil's advocate...

G5 fans have to hear the rest of the year what trash their football program is and how every P5 program is the cat's of the meow. They are bombarded with this in traditional media, on social media, at the office, in their neighborhood, by a family member who is a t-shirt fan of a different school, etc. Excuse us for getting excited for beating a team that we are told prior to the game is going to kick our arse by multiple TDs.

I understand that, though it's an exaggeration -- absolutely no one writes that Kansas football or Oregon State football is awesome. If you're near Cincinnati, I have no doubt that Ohio State fandom is all over the place, but I doubt you'll find anyone bragging about Rutgers football.

If a win is actually an upset, then enjoy it and celebrate it like an upset. But when fans go crazy and coaches say things like "This win proves that we can play with anyone" after beating a P5 team at the bottom of its conference, that feeds into the exact narrative that irritates you.

(08-06-2019 12:10 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(08-06-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative.

That is true -- if a good G5 team beats a bad P5 team, the reaction should be, "No big deal, my team was expected to win that game, and it would have been embarrassing to lose that game."

But too often, fans of the G5 teams, and even coaches, crow over that win as much as if they'd beaten Oklahoma instead of Kansas. "We took down a team from the mighty Big 12!!!" If enough people act like their team's win over Kansas is a huge upset, then no one should be surprised if someone in the media writes it up as if it was an upset.

Playing devil's advocate...

G5 fans have to hear the rest of the year what trash their football program is and how every P5 program is the cat's of the meow. They are bombarded with this in traditional media, on social media, at the office, in their neighborhood, by a family member who is a t-shirt fan of a different school, etc. Excuse us for getting excited for beating a team that we are told prior to the game is going to kick our arse by multiple TDs.

Last year UC played UCLA to open the season. We were told by the talent on College Gameday it was going to be a slaughter. Desmond Howard started laughing at us. He said Chip Kelly was going to rest his starters after halftime. We didn't beat them on a Hail Mary Pass or some other trickeration play... we punched them in the mouth and ran the ball and played hard-nosed defense.

I can't relate to that bolded part, because I have never seen or heard of a place like that. It's possible that I haven't experienced it because such places may only exist inside the heads of some G5 fans, who filter out all the comments that don't fit that narrative. That, or that some G5 fans are prone to hyperbole. Paranoia will do that to you sometimes.

In the world I live in, most people understand, and acknowledge, that some G5 programs are better than some P5 programs, and that in any given year some G5 teams are more talented than they usually are. They also understand that some of the better G5 programs will try to schedule the better P5 programs in order to improve their chances of getting an access bowl bid. The operative word here is "try", because some of the best P5 programs don't see much value in playing them.

So instead of getting to test temselves against the Oklahomas of the world, more often than not the G5 team has to settle for the UCLAs. And when those UCLAs are having a down year, the G5 doesn't get much credit for winning. That sucks for the G5 team that tried to schedule up but failed through no fault of their own. But that's how life is sometimes. You don't always get what you deserve.

(08-05-2019 09:27 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  16 regular-season wins for the G5 over the P5 last year, if I did my math correct. Forgive me if my math is off. Although not all those wins were upsets, by any means.

16 possibilities for 2019 (9 AAC, 4 MWC, 1 C-USA, 1 MAC, 1 Sun Belt) below. Some of these will miss, of course, but I'd guess that if we revisit this in November the majority of these happen (and conversely, some games not on this list will happen).

(1,2) Temple over each of Maryland and Georgia Tech.
(3,4) UCF over each of Stanford and Pittsburgh.
(5,6) South Florida over each of Wisconsin and Georgia Tech.
(7) Memphis over Ole Miss.
(8) Cincinnati over UCLA.
(9) Houston over Washington State.
(10) Hawaii over Oregon State.
(11) Utah State over Wake Forest.
(12) Fresno State over Minnesota.
(13) Boise State over Florida State.

(14) North Texas over California.

(15) Eastern Michigan over Illinois.

(16) Appalachian State over North Carolina.

I'd take NIU over Vanderbilt.

(08-06-2019 04:02 PM)BobL Wrote:  

(08-05-2019 09:27 PM)Nittany_Bearcat Wrote:  16 regular-season wins for the G5 over the P5 last year, if I did my math correct. Forgive me if my math is off. Although not all those wins were upsets, by any means.

16 possibilities for 2019 (9 AAC, 4 MWC, 1 C-USA, 1 MAC, 1 Sun Belt) below. Some of these will miss, of course, but I'd guess that if we revisit this in November the majority of these happen (and conversely, some games not on this list will happen).

(1,2) Temple over each of Maryland and Georgia Tech.
(3,4) UCF over each of Stanford and Pittsburgh.
(5,6) South Florida over each of Wisconsin and Georgia Tech.
(7) Memphis over Ole Miss.
(8) Cincinnati over UCLA.
(9) Houston over Washington State.
(10) Hawaii over Oregon State.
(11) Utah State over Wake Forest.
(12) Fresno State over Minnesota.
(13) Boise State over Florida State.

(14) North Texas over California.

(15) Eastern Michigan over Illinois.

(16) Appalachian State over North Carolina.

I'd take NIU over Vanderbilt.

Toledo over Kentucky

(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative. Separation is in TV dollars yes, but definitely overlap on the field.

Truth. Cincy and Memphis are currently favored over UCLA and Mississippi, respectively.

Here's a list of games, which may not be incomplete as I did it quickly.

**this G5 team is hosting**
Blue - G5 team should definitely win
Green - G5 team favored and should win
Bold - G5 team not favored, but game is reasonably within shot.

BTW, I'm calling for WKU and ECU to be to be the turnaround teams for this year like Georgia Southern and Cincinnati last season and Fresno in 2017.

Sun Belt
Appalachian State versus UNC
Appalachian State versus USC
Coastal Carolina versus Kansas
Georgia Southern versus LSU
Georgia Southern versus Minnesota
Georgia State versus Tennessee
Louisiana versus Mississippi State (neutral site)
South Alabama versus Nebraska
Texas State versus Texas A&M
Troy versus Missouri
ULM versus Florida State
ULM versus Iowa State
Arkansas State versus Georgia

CUSA
Charlotte versus Clemson
Florida Atlanta versus Ohio State
La Tech versus Texas
**Middle Tennessee versus Duke**
North Texas versus Cal
Old Dominion versus Virginia Tech
Old Dominion versus Virginia
Rice versus Texas (neutral site)
**Rice versus Wake Forest**
Southern Miss versus Mississippi State
Southern Miss versus Alabama
UAB versus Tennessee
UTEP versus Texas Tech
UTSA versus Baylor
UTSA versus Texas A&M
Western Kentucky versus Louisville (neutral site)

MAC
Akron versus Illinois
**Ball State versus Indiana**
Central Michigan versus Wisconsin
Central Michigan versus Miami
Eastern Michigan versus Illinois
Eastern Michigan versus Kentucky
Ball State versus NC State
Bowling Green versus Kansas State
Bowling Green versus Notre Dame
Buffalo versus Penn State
Kent State versus Arizona State
Kent State versus Auburn
Kent State versus Wisconsin
Miami (OH) versus Iowa
Miami (OH) versus Ohio State
Northern Illinois versus Nebraska
Northern Illinois versus Utah
Northern Illinois versus Vanderbilt
Ohio versus Pittsburgh
Toledo versus Kentucky

Mountain West
Air Force versus Colorado
Boise State versus FSU (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Colorado (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Arkansas
Fresno State versus Southern Cal
**Fresno State versus Minnesota**
**Hawaii versus Arizona**
Hawaii versus Oregon State
**Hawaii versus Washington**
**Nevada versus Purdue**
Nevada versus Oregon
New Mexico versus Notre Dame
San Diego State versus UCLA
San Jose State versus Arkansas
UNLV versus Northwestern
UNLV versus Vanderbilt
Utah State versus Wake Forest
Utah State versus LSU
**Wyoming versus Missouri**

AAC
Cincinnati versus Ohio State
**Cincinnati versus UCLA**
East Carolina versus NC State
**Houston versus Oklahoma**
**Houston versus Washington State**
**Memphis versus Ole Miss**
Navy versus Notre Dame
SMU versus TCU
**Temple versus Maryland**
**Temple versus Georgia Tech**
Tulane versus Auburn
Tulsa versus Michigan State
**Tulsa versus Oklahoma State**
**USF versus Wisconsin**
**UCF versus Stanford**
UCF versus Pitt
**UConn versus Illinois**
UConn versus Indiana
USF versus Georgia Tech