Hoops with P
(#2)

I was bored yesterday so i decided to make our second edition of hoops, today we look at season defining questions of every aac team, + a few extras

Assumptions: with such drastic roster changes its impossible to guess strengths and flaws of teams ...

we are going to assume everyone's "assumed strength" will turn out out be an actual strength (ie Memphis is assumed to have overwhelming talent, could the rankings have overvalued some recruits? that's a possibility, but that wont be taken into account in this thread.. memphis is expected to have overwhelming talent we are just going to accept that)

"Most intriguing new player" doesnt mean best new payers, just "most interested to see how the do"

Conference wide observations
- on the average year the AAC has 3 defining factors 3- physicality, age (older), and refined skill (like 3pt shooting or technically sound defenses)..this year will be different. we should still be physical but way less than previous years. We are also beginning to lean more towards "youth an talent" and less "older and skilled" (which is more similar other top conference). this could create a more fast paced AAC

- As a conference we wont be a good 3pt shooting league. Wichita and ucf are the only 2 teams that even have the potential to be lethal and i cant confidential say either will be

- based on returning players, and expectation of new players, this will be the most talented aac year to date except the year with Louisville

- if everyone gets their waivers this will be the 1st year in AAC history that all 12 members would say they weren't surprised if they happen to finish top 5 in the league (and made a post season)


Tulsa:
- Star guard: do they have a star player at guard/wing? - they have up to 7 players that could be starters at the 1 through 3 positions, you cant say with certainty or confidence any will be a star
- Over the hump: can they get over the hump? how will they differentiate themselves from the middle of the conference and get back into tourney shape?

Most intriguing new player: Brandon Rachal - former LSU 4star, then Juco looking to make a comeback
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meiIdWEhbhk


SMU
- Obviously waivers: will SMU get waivers for 2 season defining players that would be starters?
- Defense: even if both waiver are approved. they should be electric on offense...Defense will be a huge question mark. between no true power bigs in the post, and not one of their guards being known for defense..what kind of defense can they produce?
- Hot Seat: Minor improvements wont save jank from being fired, he likely has to make a postseason of some sort. can he do it.

Most intriguing new player: Darius Mcniell- what would have been the best player at Cal looks to return closer to home
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCTWfVWoa_8


Memphis
- Coaching Ability: can penny be an elite enough x and os coach to win at a tournament level? (or final 4 level- their goal) ..
- Meshing: will the elite talent on the roster mesh together to produce a elite "team"? as despite being talented all the prayers have strengths and weaknesses
- 3pt shooting: not a single proven consistent 3pt shooter on roster, how will that play out?

Most intriguing new player: Damion Baugh- the least talked about recruit for memphis, already making a name for himself in practice. a defensive specialist
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDmaps9EDnw


Cincy
- System: how will cincy's players Adapt /fit into Brannen's system? completely different than Cronins. also questions if the system can be successful at this level
- Positional weaknesses: no legitimate proven point guard. no legitimate proven center..will someone step up in those positions or will someone from another position adapt to that role?
- The King returns: can Cumberland get consecutive player of the year awards? can Cincy continue its tournament streak?

Most intriguing new player: Zach Harvey, top 50 recruit, the highest cincy has gotten in 6 years
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5yYNeUIrkc


Wichita
- Breakout player: Wichita has depth and players, they have players that they "like" but will any of them be contending for all-conference/national level star player. that is yet to be decided
- Offense: kinda of related to the 1st issue. but offensive production on paper is a big question, where will high level scoring come from? especially against the elites with great defense
- Program Standard: Can Wichita return to the NCAA tourney

Most intriguing new player: Grant Sherfield - 4* UCLA decommit and my most likely to usurp a Wichita returning guard
Mini highlight: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10156181914326385


UConn
- Leveling up: like Wichita, UConn has a lot of players that they "like" but not one of them has proven it on the court to be an all-conference level star that can lead them back to glory. Hurley has put that expectation on Alterique Gilbert, can he live up top it?
- Freshmen Depth: UConn has 3 top 100 players, how will their talent translate year 1..
- Farewell Tour: What will UConn look like on its last aac year

Most intriguing new player: James Bouknight - top 100 guard that hurley has spoken of as an elite level scorer
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzf3c4-JK1g


ECU
- Roster overhaul: how will having 11 new players impact them? the returning players and the standard of winning at ecu
- Juco Revolution: how will their mostly juco roster translate to the AAC level
- The Chosen One: what will year 2 of Jayden Gardener look like?

Most intriguing new player: Tremont Robinson- the most "on paper" qualities among new players that shows they can be successful in the AAC (high major offers & elite juco stats). the fact he sat out a year adds another dynamic
A stat comparison (no good reel): https://twitter.com/NWCC_Rangers/status/...2969631744


Houston
- New starters: how will Houston's backup guards handle their increased roles next season?
- Unheralded Depth: Houston will rely on not highly touted "on paper" players for depth, but heralded by the coaching staff, how will they perform?
- 3pt shooting: relied on 3s last year, no proven 3pt shooter on roster this season (that's eligible)

Most intriguing new player: Caleb Mills- Sampson has spoken highly of the early enrollee freshman, could get 25+ mins a game if grimes is not given a waiver
Mini highlight: https://youtu.be/bTntt7dMiQc


Temple
- New Era: How will the new look Aaron Mckie temple play? How different will it be from Dunphy?
- Rebounding: temple was a dreadful rebounding team for the last 2 seasons, and a major aspect in their lack of elite status, will that improve?
- Big Time Mid-Major Transfer: how will James Monty Scott (6'5 G, 17pt transfer from Kennesaw st) translate to the AAC

Most intriguing new player: Josh Pierre-Louis - the super athletic brother of super athletic temple guard Nate Pierre-Louis
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tvn39d70djc


UCF
- Whats Next?: How will UCF follow its best season in its history?
- Making Lemonade: UCF on paper will not have the most talented roster in the aac or close, but has some unique advantages; almost everyone on roster is 6'4+ and "on paper" UCF should have the best 3pt shooting perimeter in the AAC. Can they take advantage?
- New Face of the Program: who will be the star leader for UCF?

Most intriguing new player: Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia, he looks to be an interesting character (dyed his hair, beard, eyebrows blonde) the south carolina transfer could be a conference fan favorite
Recent UCF scrimmage reel: https://twitter.com/UCF_MBB/status/1154466546477129728


Tulane
- "Biggest Turnaround nationally":Hunter has put very high expectations on Tulane, can they leave up to the hype?
- The 5 guard Zone: will Hunters unique style translate to a High major? (5 guard line up, Only zone defense, and de-emphasizing rebounding)
- The return of Kj Lawson: (4star, former aac freshman of the year), will he return to his american form after a short stint at Kansas?
- The return of Ona Embho: talented AAC pg who missed all of last season to injury, how will he play?

Most intriguing new player: Kj Lawson (above)
AAC ROY interview/highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud_HLfLyCpQ


USF
- Next Step: Can USF take the next step, from just good to a "NCAA tournament team" with them returning almost everyone from last season
- Player Improvements: Alexis Yetna, what will he look like year 2? How many other players will contend for conference awards? can they improve their not very good shooting percentages?
- Touted Transfer: former espn 100, Oklahoma st transfer Zack Dawson becomes eligible for usf this season ..where do he fit in and how will he do?

Most intriguing new player: Zack Dawson - usf already has more "proven" all conference level players than everyone in the AAC, imagine if they added 1 more
Mini highlight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0dxvyLJT0

Awesome pesik well done.

Question regarding Tulane and ‘de-emphasizing rebounding’; what does that mean? To me rebounding is so important it’s like de-emphasizing the ball.

I can’t wait to see double Pierre-Louis trouble. Gonna be a dunk show.

Coach P where we stand today (without the waivers known yet) how would you rank the teams preseason?

(07-29-2019 04:27 PM)vick mike Wrote:  Awesome pesik well done.

Question regarding Tulane and ‘de-emphasizing rebounding’; what does that mean? To me rebounding is so important it’s like de-emphasizing the ball.

according to ron hunter, rebounding is the most overrated/misleading stat in college basketball.. says he has not won a single "rebounding battle" in a single game the last 2 years but yet has made the tourney twice in that span

him de-emphizing the importance of rebounds is why he feels confident playing 5 guard line ups

says it would be nice to get every rebound but he doesn't see it as a necessity the way his system is set up

Very well done. Thanks

Tyler Harris is a dead eyed three point shooter hindered by lack of height and scouting report focus. He should receive plenty of open looks next season and I expect a corresponding conversion rate increase.

(07-29-2019 04:30 PM)BFieldHusky Wrote:  Coach P where we stand today (without the waivers known yet) how would you rank the teams preseason?

that very very hard....projecting the AAC at this point is like throwing darts blind folded...

the top teams are all having overhauls, the bottom teams are all having overhauls, everyone in the middle is expected to get better

assuming every waiver is turned down :
i added the range i could see the fall in next to their name
-note i saw "on paper" alot, someone will surprise someone will flop, im not psychic

1) Cincinnati (1-5)- all key players know how to carry a great team with a ton of new talent around them...obviously with coaching transiton in the back ground

2) Memphis (1-6)- elite talent with a lot of question marks

3) Houston (1-4) this is without waiver. everyone expected to play has been on roster for 7 months, and know sampsons system

4) USF (1-7)- if adding age and proven experience they might be the roster team in the conference. but no experience being on top or elite

5) Wichita (1-6)- defense will crazy them top half, offense is unknown

6) UConn (3-9)- a lot of the right pieces that might not be ready yet

7) temple (1-8) - similar team to last year, how will they do if the league is improved, or if they resolved the rebounding issues

8) Tulsa (3-10) - they have a lot of play that "could be special" but still have to show they can reach that potential

9) UCF (6-11) enough grad transfers to still be a top 150 rpi, no on paper game changers

10) ECU- (8-12)- not enough "on paper" AAC quality players, would need to see game action of roster

11) Tulane (5-12)- KJ lawson and the seton hall transfer are key, if they are special, i can see up to 5,

12) SMU (4-12)- without waiver they are a worse version of last years team that wasn't good, its almost both waivers or bust

Stellar work here Coach P.

When the ACC beats on each other the pundits say it shows the strength of the ACC.

I can only hope the same is said of the AAC as I expect some epic battles between teams that will finish anywhere from top to bottom this season. Last years shocking ECU over Cincy result will happen more often now. It’s a tough conference.

Oh yeah.... fire Jank.

Nice write-up

(07-30-2019 06:09 AM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  Stellar work here Coach P.

When the ACC beats on each other the pundits say it shows the strength of the ACC.

I can only hope the same is said of the AAC as I expect some epic battles between teams that will finish anywhere from top to bottom this season. Last years shocking ECU over Cincy result will happen more often now. It’s a tough conference.

Oh yeah.... fire Jank.

Last year's ECU win over Cincy wasn't shocking because ECU finished 11th and Cincy finished 2nd. It was shocking because Cincy was Top 25 and ECU was bottom 100. Top of the league may start losing to the bottom of the league more, but it should be less shocking because the bottom of the league is better.

The entire league needs to start doing work in November or it won't matter. I'm encouraged.

Love your enthusiasm for AAC hoops, Pesik

(07-29-2019 04:38 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-29-2019 04:27 PM)vick mike Wrote:  Awesome pesik well done.

Question regarding Tulane and ‘de-emphasizing rebounding’; what does that mean? To me rebounding is so important it’s like de-emphasizing the ball.

according to ron hunter, rebounding is the most overrated/misleading stat in college basketball.. says he has not won a single "rebounding battle" in a single game the last 2 years but yet has made the tourney twice in that span

him de-emphizing the importance of rebounds is why he feels confident playing 5 guard line ups

says it would be nice to get every rebound but he doesn't see it as a necessity the way his system is set up

Spoken like a coach whose team sucks at rebounding.

We had a coupe of games last year (cant remember exactly who) where we got our @$$es handed to us on the boards and it was excruciating.

(07-29-2019 04:55 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tyler Harris is a dead eyed three point shooter hindered by lack of height and scouting report focus. He should receive plenty of open looks next season and I expect a corresponding conversion rate increase.

There are actually several Tigers that can pop a three. I suppose 3 point shooting is a question because we already know how teams will try to defend us.

Lester and Boogie are both supposedly good shooters and I expect others will emerge as adequate 3 point shooters as well.

Last year we had 1 guy who shot over 35% from 3 and we still averaged 80+PPG. While 3 point shooting will be something to watch, I’m more curious to see how well we defend.

I'm a long time lurker that finally decided to pull the trigger and make an account, since no other UCF fans on here seem to care about basketball. I think that the transfers that we got have potential to be offensive playmakers, and Dawkins teams always play good defense.

Dazon Ingram- a 6'6 PG transfer from Alabama that started every year he was there, including as a freshman before he got injured and medically redshirted. He was named the teams outstanding offensive player of the year his redshirt freshman year and led the team in three point shooting percentage, assists, and steals.

Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia- 6'7 F transfer from South Carolina, sat out last year, didn't play too much as a freshman there but was rated a 4 star by ESPN, and is supposedly the most athletic player on the roster, as seen by the practice clip pesik posted earlier.

Matt Milon- 6'4 SG transfer from W&M, an Orlando native that originally went to BC out of hs, started a few games as a freshman and ranked #5 in the country in 3 point shooting, transferred to W&M, started 2 years there, ranked n the top 50 for three point shooting and averaged 13 ppg when he was there.

Brandon Mahan- 6'5 SG transfer from Texas A&M, started 20 games and averaged 6 ppg, and shot 38.4% from 3, has to sit out a year unless he gets a waiver (Dont think thats likely).

Yuat Alok- 6'11 C transfer from TCU, he's that "5 star" in JUCO, played in 10 games averaging 3.3 ppg before breaking his hand and transferring midseason, so he has to sit out until december I believe this year.

Those are all the non-juco transfers for this year, I can give a run down for the hs signees and JUCO transfers later. I don't think UCF will finish lower than 7th or 8th this year tbh. I know every fan says that about their team, but I really can't see it after the 2017-2018 year where we finished 6th with much less potential than this squad, with BJ Taylor, Tacko Fall, Aubrey Dawkins, and others hurt throughout the year.

(07-30-2019 10:52 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-29-2019 04:55 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tyler Harris is a dead eyed three point shooter hindered by lack of height and scouting report focus. He should receive plenty of open looks next season and I expect a corresponding conversion rate increase.

There are actually several Tigers that can pop a three. I suppose 3 point shooting is a question because we already know how teams will try to defend us.

Lester and Boogie are both supposedly good shooters and I expect others will emerge as adequate 3 point shooters as well.

Last year we had 1 guy who shot over 35% from 3 and we still averaged 80+PPG. While 3 point shooting will be something to watch, I’m more curious to see how well we defend.

just to note, i used the word "proven" on purpose...you have some potential, but non are guaranteed

boogie was coming in as a touted shooter, but penny said in practice so far he hasnt been a good shooter

lester is streaky, he has some great games but his full season or aau averages arent great

harris had great shooting stats in aau/high school but had very poor college shooting stats

these are going to be the best 3 shooters on roster....

(07-30-2019 12:23 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-30-2019 10:52 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(07-29-2019 04:55 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Tyler Harris is a dead eyed three point shooter hindered by lack of height and scouting report focus. He should receive plenty of open looks next season and I expect a corresponding conversion rate increase.

There are actually several Tigers that can pop a three. I suppose 3 point shooting is a question because we already know how teams will try to defend us.

Lester and Boogie are both supposedly good shooters and I expect others will emerge as adequate 3 point shooters as well.

Last year we had 1 guy who shot over 35% from 3 and we still averaged 80+PPG. While 3 point shooting will be something to watch, I’m more curious to see how well we defend.

just to note, i used the word "proven" on purpose...you have some potential, but non are guaranteed

boogie was coming in as a touted shooter, but penny said in practice so far he hasnt been a good shooter

lester is streaky, he has some great games but his full season or aau averages arent great

harris had great shooting stats in aau/high school but had very poor college shooting stats

these are going to be the best 3 shooters on roster....

Cool. We’re also going to have a formidable front court which means doubles will come and defenses will sag. As a result, there will be open 3s to be had. We didn’t have a post presence last year so you can’t really go off of what Tyler did last season. That and most D1 guards/wings can hit a wide open 3. I would expect our overall 3 point percentage to be better this year (as opposed to last) based on all of the attention that will be on James and Precious.

I don’t disagree though. Defense and 3 point shooting are 2 things to keep an eye on.

(07-30-2019 12:16 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Those are all the non-juco transfers for this year, I can give a run down for the hs signees and JUCO transfers later. I don't think UCF will finish lower than 7th or 8th this year tbh. I know every fan says that about their team, but I really can't see it after the 2017-2018 year where we finished 6th with much less potential than this squad, with BJ Taylor, Tacko Fall, Aubrey Dawkins, and others hurt throughout the year.

but the league is stronger, like you said everyone in the aac right now is saying they will finish atleast top 8 too

this will be defining season for ucf imo....it will make a statement about if last years success was a system/culutre created by a coach ..or the right collection of players at the right time, but now they are gone

i also saw ucf made the finalist for a few top 100 recruits...you arent favored to land them.. but another year of success and i think that starts beginning to change

(07-30-2019 01:01 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-30-2019 12:16 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Those are all the non-juco transfers for this year, I can give a run down for the hs signees and JUCO transfers later. I don't think UCF will finish lower than 7th or 8th this year tbh. I know every fan says that about their team, but I really can't see it after the 2017-2018 year where we finished 6th with much less potential than this squad, with BJ Taylor, Tacko Fall, Aubrey Dawkins, and others hurt throughout the year.

but the league is stronger, like you said everyone in the aac right now is saying they will finish atleast top 8 too

this will be defining season for ucf imo....it will make a statement about if last years success was a system/culutre created by a coach ..or the right collection of players at the right time, but now they are gone

i also saw ucf made the finalist for a few top 100 recruits...you arent favored to land them.. but another year of success and i think that starts beginning to change

Yeah we made the top 10 for 5 star Isaiah Todd, but I'm sure he'll go blue blood. We also were in the mix for 4 star Justin Lewis, but I think he recently committed to Marquette. Johnny Dawkins for some reason doesn't like to recruit hs that much, he prefers transfers, like you can see looking at our roster. Not sure why, but he might be too clean to get too much into the hs recruiting, which obviously can get pretty dirty.