Academically Buffalo is the very best they could hope for being an AAU member. Aside from the schools who probably already said no--AFA, Army, and BYU, no one really stands out as the clear heir to AAC membership.

If Buffalo does go I think staying at 11 for Olympic sports and adding UConn for football is their best move. Anyone else have a differing opinion on how the MAC should react if they lost Buffalo?

(07-09-2019 07:51 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  New Mexico doesn't have the population or the recruiting base to excited about.

Nor a local TV market ala UNLV.

The Albuquerque MSA is bigger than the Colorado Springs MSA and way bigger than the Fort Collins MSA.

It's also about the same size as the Tulsa MSA, and way way way bigger than the Greenville NC MSA.

Just sayin'.

Wow, if Buffalo jumps UMass, Marshall, UAB etc. east of the Mississippi, that’d be nuts.

UB and Rice are the only realistic AAU additions. UB also is a replacement in the northeast, although the city is probably more like a East/Midwest hybrid.

I would think the MAC would go for Marshall, and if that doesn’t work, I suppose UConn wouldn’t be a bad football-only. Liberty would probably come knocking.

(07-09-2019 05:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 04:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Here is the thing----among schools that would have an interest in the AAC---where is the school with such a massive brand, athletic success, and obvious TV value that would push the presidents to completely dismiss academics as a factor? I dont really see a Boise or Louisville type option for the AAC. The only posisble addition that obviously works on all levels (brand, athletic performance, TV value, and academics) is VCU.

I do not see VCU as a good fit at all. They have marginal value in basketball, and zero value in football.

Define marginal. They were in the tournament in 2004, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019. If they have marginal value then the rest of the conference is in real trouble As for football, we didnt really lose any value there--its basketball where we have some repair work to do.

VCU has a good basketball program. If the aim of a #12 is to get a good performer on the court, then VCU is a good addition. To the surprise of many, they were able to maintain a tournament-level team after Smart left.

But that's not what pays $7 million. That pay is for brand value and VCU has extremely little - when most fans think of VCU, they think of the Final 4 run, which is now a solid 8 years old, and fading. Probably because since Smart left, their modus has been to make the tournament and then lose in the first round.

IMO, since football drives the bus, a #12 has to have some strength or brand value in football. One or the other. VCU has neither.

I dont disagree. There appears to be no such addition available to the AAC. So, fix what you can and move forward with 11. Let ESPN dock the AAC for the 5 million in football value. I doubt waiting will help much. If someone was going to emerge as a permanent leader of the furr ball of current choices they would have already done it. My guess is the field would look little different in 3 years than it does now. The only thing you'd really be hoping for is maybe a BYU, Army, or a MW team might be more interested at that point. Given the landscape---fix basketball and move on with 11 for FB. Nothing else really makes sense.

I think there's technical logic to what you are suggesting, but I also think there is intangible harm. Basically, the "P" conferences that the AAC aspires to do not run on "frankenstein" models. The only exception is the ACC with its Notre Dame deal, and well, Notre Dame is special.

True, just because a conference *isn't* a frankenstein doesn't mean it is powerful, the MAC is a tightly-wound group of all-in members, and they are barely neck above water. But, I do think that as partial memberships proliferate, it starts to smell "small time", which harms the AAC's higher-status aspirations and present brand value.

So on balance, I would be against adding VCU for hoops.

(07-09-2019 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 04:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Here is the thing----among schools that would have an interest in the AAC---where is the school with such a massive brand, athletic success, and obvious TV value that would push the presidents to completely dismiss academics as a factor? I dont really see a Boise or Louisville type option for the AAC. The only posisble addition that obviously works on all levels (brand, athletic performance, TV value, and academics) is VCU.

I do not see VCU as a good fit at all. They have marginal value in basketball, and zero value in football.

Define marginal. They were in the tournament in 2004, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019. If they have marginal value then the rest of the conference is in real trouble As for football, we didnt really lose any value there--its basketball where we have some repair work to do.

VCU has a good basketball program. If the aim of a #12 is to get a good performer on the court, then VCU is a good addition. To the surprise of many, they were able to maintain a tournament-level team after Smart left.

But that's not what pays $7 million. That pay is for brand value and VCU has extremely little - when most fans think of VCU, they think of the Final 4 run, which is now a solid 8 years old, and fading. Probably because since Smart left, their modus has been to make the tournament and then lose in the first round.

IMO, since football drives the bus, a #12 has to have some strength or brand value in football. One or the other. VCU has neither.

That's only for a football+all sports member. You don't need $7 million to make a non-football member work. Wichita State isn't $7 million and their addition seems to be mutually beneficial.

(07-09-2019 06:14 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 05:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 04:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Here is the thing----among schools that would have an interest in the AAC---where is the school with such a massive brand, athletic success, and obvious TV value that would push the presidents to completely dismiss academics as a factor? I dont really see a Boise or Louisville type option for the AAC. The only posisble addition that obviously works on all levels (brand, athletic performance, TV value, and academics) is VCU.

I do not see VCU as a good fit at all. They have marginal value in basketball, and of course zero value in football.

The thing to remember about BBall only schools to the AAC is that those schools would leave for the Big East in a NY minute if they get too good.

VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

(07-09-2019 07:46 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

Quote:As of right now, UB has no plans to leave the MAC. UB athletic director Mark Alnutt declined an interview request to discuss the topic, but issued a statement to the News through the UB athletic department.

"The University at Buffalo is a proud member of the Mid-American Conference,” Alnutt said in the statement. “We will continue to pursue leadership in the conference as we elevate the national profile of our program.”

https://buffalonews.com/2019/07/08/ub-bu...news-2019/

Classic denial.

Congrats Bulls...

The headline is Could UB's future involve the American Athletic Conference? According to Betteridge's Law of Headlines, any headline ending in a question mark can be answered "no." So could Buffalo's future involve the AAC? No.

Tough break, Bulls.

(07-09-2019 08:27 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 07:51 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  New Mexico doesn't have the population or the recruiting base to excited about.

Nor a local TV market ala UNLV.

The Albuquerque MSA is bigger than the Colorado Springs MSA and way bigger than the Fort Collins MSA.

It's also about the same size as the Tulsa MSA, and way way way bigger than the Greenville NC MSA.

Just sayin'.

Exactly. And, UNM doesn't have any pro sports competition in New Mexico, unlike UNLV who is going to see potential non-alum fans drained away by local NFL and NHL teams.

(07-09-2019 09:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:27 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 07:51 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  New Mexico doesn't have the population or the recruiting base to excited about.

Nor a local TV market ala UNLV.

The Albuquerque MSA is bigger than the Colorado Springs MSA and way bigger than the Fort Collins MSA.

It's also about the same size as the Tulsa MSA, and way way way bigger than the Greenville NC MSA.

Just sayin'.

Exactly. And, UNM doesn't have any pro sports competition in New Mexico, unlike UNLV who is going to see potential non-alum fans drained away by local NFL and NHL teams.

Although you wouldn't know it from the USA Today numbers, New Mexico does have some financial challenges. They didn't make the final 11 in the Big 12 sweepstakes, so I don't think they would make the AAC list. The Big 12 finalists not already in the AAC are BYU, Air Force, Colorado St. and Rice.

(07-09-2019 09:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:27 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 07:51 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  New Mexico doesn't have the population or the recruiting base to excited about.

Nor a local TV market ala UNLV.

The Albuquerque MSA is bigger than the Colorado Springs MSA and way bigger than the Fort Collins MSA.

It's also about the same size as the Tulsa MSA, and way way way bigger than the Greenville NC MSA.

Just sayin'.

Exactly. And, UNM doesn't have any pro sports competition in New Mexico, unlike UNLV who is going to see potential non-alum fans drained away by local NFL and NHL teams.

Although you wouldn't know it from the USA Today numbers, New Mexico does have some financial challenges. They didn't make the final 11 in the Big 12 sweepstakes, so I don't think they would make the AAC list. The Big 12 finalists not already in the AAC are BYU, Air Force, Colorado St. and Rice.

UNM's biggest issue, as far as realignment attractiveness, is football mediocrity. Of course UNLV and some of those others have the same issue.

(07-09-2019 09:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:27 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 07:51 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  New Mexico doesn't have the population or the recruiting base to excited about.

Nor a local TV market ala UNLV.

The Albuquerque MSA is bigger than the Colorado Springs MSA and way bigger than the Fort Collins MSA.

It's also about the same size as the Tulsa MSA, and way way way bigger than the Greenville NC MSA.

Just sayin'.

Exactly. And, UNM doesn't have any pro sports competition in New Mexico, unlike UNLV who is going to see potential non-alum fans drained away by local NFL and NHL teams.

Although you wouldn't know it from the USA Today numbers, New Mexico does have some financial challenges. They didn't make the final 11 in the Big 12 sweepstakes, so I don't think they would make the AAC list. The Big 12 finalists not already in the AAC are BYU, Air Force, Colorado St. and Rice.

UNM's biggest issue, as far as realignment attractiveness, is football mediocrity. Of course UNLV and some of those others have the same issue.

So did SMU, Rice, Tulane, Colorado St. and UConn, but they made the Big 12 final 11.

Although mediocrity is a little bit of an understatement for New Mexico. If UNM, NMSU, UTEP and CSU didn't play each other prior to the 90s, none of the 4 would hardly have any wins!

As of 1995, bottom 8 FBS programs in win %:
Kansas St. .394
Wake Forest .398
UTEP .419
Northwestern .423
Rice .442
NMSU .457
CSU .462
UNM .462

I suspect KSU and NW have passed all of them, although some of the new FBS schools may have fallen below.

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

We played in the A-10 for 1 year with VCU and Butler! So yea not a lot of history

(07-09-2019 01:47 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 01:46 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 12:21 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  You're right Niagara Falls is worth the trip every yr.
When Ralf Wilson died, I was stunned new owner did not move them

New owner's wife has local roots (From Rochester) and already owned the Sabres, so they were seen as the white knights saving the team.

They need to move the Bills to Toronto

Not really...not saying it isn't the best move but ownership decides. Buffalo/WNY/Hamilton/Toronto have super loyal fans to the Bills.

(07-09-2019 10:41 PM)scoscox Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

We played in the A-10 for 1 year with VCU and Butler! So yea not a lot of history

I forgot about that! It was during the A-10's Biggie-Sized year with 16 schools when departing Temple and Charlotte (and Xavier and Butler, though you didn't know it yet) overlapped with incoming VCU and ... Butler. That was a weird, fun season.

(07-09-2019 09:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

For now they are fat and happy, but that TV contract is coming up and content is king in the age of streaming as i've been told many times on here. So, if expansion means a better deal they will expand and if they expand it's really between VCU and Saint Louis. Dayton is a market overlap and Xavier would try and block them.

(07-10-2019 08:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

For now they are fat and happy, but that TV contract is coming up and content is king in the age of streaming as i've been told many times on here. So, if expansion means a better deal they will expand and if they expand it's really between VCU and Saint Louis. Dayton is a market overlap and Xavier would try and block them.

Everyone likes to bring up Xavier potentially blocking Dayton in the BE but I seem to recall Dayton joining an A-10 that had Xavier and they didn't seem to mind.

(07-10-2019 08:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

For now they are fat and happy, but that TV contract is coming up and content is king in the age of streaming as i've been told many times on here. So, if expansion means a better deal they will expand and if they expand it's really between VCU and Saint Louis. Dayton is a market overlap and Xavier would try and block them.

They'd get more inventory running a 20-game schedule with 11 teams than an 18-game schedule with 12 teams. I guess technically you can do 20 games with 12 teams but then you'd have a weird scheduling quirk where you play everyone twice except one team.

VCU has the public-school stigma, Saint Louis is only sporadically good in basketball, Dayton is too close to Xavier and Gonzaga is too close to the Pacific Ocean. I could have seen Fox pushing for two of VCU/SLU/Dayton, but with UConn at 11, there's no need to move.

(07-10-2019 09:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-10-2019 08:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

For now they are fat and happy, but that TV contract is coming up and content is king in the age of streaming as i've been told many times on here. So, if expansion means a better deal they will expand and if they expand it's really between VCU and Saint Louis. Dayton is a market overlap and Xavier would try and block them.

They'd get more inventory running a 20-game schedule with 11 teams than an 18-game schedule with 12 teams. I guess technically you can do 20 games with 12 teams but then you'd have a weird scheduling quirk where you play everyone twice except one team.

VCU has the public-school stigma, Saint Louis is only sporadically good in basketball, Dayton is too close to Xavier and Gonzaga is too close to the Pacific Ocean. I could have seen Fox pushing for two of VCU/SLU/Dayton, but with UConn at 11, there's no need to move.

How is that a quirk when you'd have 3 teams you only play once?

(07-10-2019 09:12 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-10-2019 09:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-10-2019 08:52 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 09:02 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-09-2019 08:57 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  VCU isn't a BE threat. The one public school they'd consider, they just added. VCU has no history with BE schools. Plus the BE is fat and happy at 11 with a double round-robin, and a theoretical 12th would have to be worth it to the media partner AND be good enough to abandon the round-robin AND be institutionally congruent. Nobody fits that bill except Gonzaga and unless they plan to move the campus to Boston, that's not happening.

Agreed.

I’ll add that before UCONN announced that it is going to make the move, I thought VCU was a possibility along with somebody else for an 11/12 combination in the Big East. But now that the Huskies have made their decision, I agree that the BE has no room at the inn.

For now they are fat and happy, but that TV contract is coming up and content is king in the age of streaming as i've been told many times on here. So, if expansion means a better deal they will expand and if they expand it's really between VCU and Saint Louis. Dayton is a market overlap and Xavier would try and block them.

They'd get more inventory running a 20-game schedule with 11 teams than an 18-game schedule with 12 teams. I guess technically you can do 20 games with 12 teams but then you'd have a weird scheduling quirk where you play everyone twice except one team.

VCU has the public-school stigma, Saint Louis is only sporadically good in basketball, Dayton is too close to Xavier and Gonzaga is too close to the Pacific Ocean. I could have seen Fox pushing for two of VCU/SLU/Dayton, but with UConn at 11, there's no need to move.

How is that a quirk when you'd have 3 teams you only play once?

If you're playing 20 games with 12 teams ... nine teams twice for 18 games and two teams once to get to 20, so I guess we're both off. Still, the BE has been a big fan of the double round-robin in its current incarnation, and I don't know that VCU, SLU or Dayton is enough to get them to move from it, or Fox to shell out more money. Unless there's another UConn-type add out there, and short of Notre Dame, I don't think it's happening.