(07-02-2019 09:31 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: (07-02-2019 08:21 AM)orangefan Wrote: (07-02-2019 07:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (07-02-2019 07:11 AM)orangefan Wrote: Some general observations.
When the Bowl Coalition began play in 1992, there were seven power conferences (conferences whose champions received automatic bids to a major bowl) consisting of 66 schools. Today, there are five power conferences consisting of 64 total schools.
Over that period, while there has obviously been a massive game of musical chairs, that's a net reduction of two schools.
Four schools in power conferences at the start of the Bowl Coalition are no longer members of a P5 conference - Houston, SMU, Rice and Temple. Only two schools that were not part of a power conference are now members of a P5 conference - Louisville and Utah.
Utah was the state flagship university from the largest states that did not have a power school at that time. That is a status that no school not already with that qualification can obtain. Basically, only three schools, UConn, Nevada and New Mexico, are flagships in states that are larger than the smallest states that already have a P5 school - West Virginia and Nebraska.
Louisville benefited from its location in a city that is near major league in size but with no major league franchises (it is a larger TV market than Buffalo, Memphis or New Orleans), being in a state with only one other power school, and having a willingness to spend extraordinary amounts on coaches and facilities (its football and basketball venues are NFL and NBA quality venues in which it is the only major tenant).
Bottom line - this club is more exclusive than Augusta National. Good luck to all, but don't hold your breath.
Utah also had the extraordinary political muscle of Orrin Hatch waiving his sabre at the BCS for five years behind them, and of course Louisville is still in the G5 if Maryland hadn't left the ACC for the B1G.
IMO, if any current G5 is in a P5 in the next 10 years, it will only come as "backfill", the way Louisville got the ACC bid. Close to zero chance that any P5 would pro-actively "expand" with any current G5.
We all know this, which is why fans of schools stuck in the G5 are always hopefully speculating about Big 12 implosion or PAC implosion or ACC implosion - whichever looks most likely at the time. Because only that kind of thing can give our school an opportunity.
One more thought - UConn is probably the most similar P5 candidate to either Utah or Louisville, and it just gave up.
I think Cincy, Houston, and Memphis have more in common with Louisville than UConn.
No doubt they all have various similarities. The three schools you identify are all "Urban Research" universities very similar in mission to UL. I cited three factors that supported UL's success in reaching P5 status:
Market:
Louisville: #49 tv market, no pro teams
Hartford: #32, no pro teams
Houston: #7, NFL, MLB and NBA franchises
Cincinnati: #35, NFL and MLB franchises
Memphis: #50, NBA franchise
Other P5 programs in the state:
Kentucky: One
Connecticut: None
Texas: Five
Ohio: One
Tennessee: Two
Venues:
Louisville: Football: 61,000 (1998), Basketball: 22,000 (2010)
UConn: Football: 40,000 (2002), Basketball: 16,000 (Excel Center, 1975)
Houston: Football: 40,000 (2014), Basketball: 7,000 (2018 renovations)
Cincinnati: Football: 40,000 (1915, renovated 2015), Basketball: 12,000 (1989)
Memphis: Football: 58,000 (1965), Basketball: 18,000 (2004)
I will add one factor in which UL does not perform well, but is extremely important to P5 conferences:
USNWR Ranking:
Louisville: #171
UConn: #63
Houston: #171
Cincinnati: #147
Memphis: #230-301
UL received an invitation despite this relatively poor ranking, especially for the ACC, which has no other school outside the top 80.