Video Link: https://portal.stretchinternet.com/uncw/

Projected Starters (CAA-only stats)

PG Chase Audige (6-4 fr.): 11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.9 bpg
SG Matt Milon (6-5 r-jr.): 15.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .406 3-pt %, .917 FT %
G Luke Loewe (6-4 so.): 3.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 3.5 A/TO ratio
PF Justin Pierce (6-7 jr.): 13.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.0 spg, .357 3-pt %
C Nathan Knight (6-10 jr.): 19.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg, .596 FG %

Key Bench Players

G L.J. Owens (6-3 fr.): 6.6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, .500 FG %, 20.3 mpg
F Quinn Blair (6-6 fr.): 1.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 8.0 mpg

Injured - Will Not Play

F Paul Rowley (6-8 r-sr.): 3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 17.7 mpg
G Thornton Scott (6-5 fr.): 1.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg, 14.3 mpg

The Road so far

Record vs. D-I: 6-12
CAA Record: 3-4 (t-5th)
NET: # 208
RPI: # 216
KenPom Overall Efficiency: # 228
KenPom Offensive Efficiency: # 183
KenPom Defensive Efficiency: # 291
Best Win: vs. St. Joe's (8-10)
Worst Loss: vs. Elon

Team Strengths

* Shot-Blocking: W&M easily leads the CAA in blocked shots (5.6 bpg) with the # 2 team, JMU, well behind (3.3 bpg). Nationally, W&M is t-49th in the in the category. Knight is of course the biggest reason for this advantage, but seemingly everybody on the team can defend the rim. Rowley does it out of the post off the bench, and Audige does it as a big, physical guard. 8 different players on the roster have blocked at least one shot in CAA play.

* Ball Movement/Distribution: As we know, Tony Shaver's offense thrives on ball movement, using elements of the Princeton Offense, where the Center plays high and makes a ton of quality passes to backdoor cutters. This year has been no different, with Knight and Pierce serving as effective big men for the job. In CAA play, the duo have combined for 8.3 assists per contest. As a team, the Tribe easily lead the league in assists (19.1 apg) despite lacking a true point guard. Those duties are essentially shared by Audige and Loewe, with Scott coming off the bench to provide ball-handling minutes as well.

Team Weaknesses

* Free Throw Shooting: The Tribe have lost 5 games by 5 points or less this season, including their latest game, a 76-71 loss to Elon. And a big reason for these close losses is poor free throw shooting. The Tribe rank last in the league in the category (.658), and its not very close. Several key players have struggled, most notably Pierce (.474). Thus, the Seahawks should use this information to their benefit and play aggressive on defense.

* Master of Nothing: This is kind of a cheap "catch-all", because I couldn't pinpoint any other significant areas of weakness. But at the same time, the Tribe are 3-4 in league play. Why? Probably because, while W&M do pretty well at a lot of things, they're not "great" at anything outside of the aforementioned strengths. They're +1.1 in Rebounding Margin (3rd) and -1.14 in Turnover Margin (8th). They're pretty good at shooting the 3 (.361, 4th) and defending it (.337, 3rd). But there's precious few things to hang your hat on with this team. I think they're better than their record says they are, but not by much.

Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Update: Per Tony Shaver, F Paul Rowley is hurt, and won't play. Nor will G Thornton Scott.

The Tribe will be a bit short-handed for this one. This will open things up for 6-6 freshman forward Quinn Blair off the bench. In 15 minutes against Elon, he put up 6 points (2-3 shooting), 1 rebound, and 3 blocks.

Not sure who else will move up on the depth chart. They will probably just roll with 7 guys (5 starters + Owens and Blair) getting heavy minutes.

(01-22-2019 12:07 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Oh good. It's that time that comes around two calendar days every year when I hate you all for continually bringing this nonsense up.

(01-22-2019 01:52 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 12:07 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Oh good. It's that time that comes around two calendar days every year when I hate you all for continually bringing this nonsense up.

If there were ever a time i wish the board had GIFs

(01-22-2019 01:52 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 12:07 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Oh good. It's that time that comes around two calendar days every year when I hate you all for continually bringing this nonsense up.

That will never, ever die.

(01-22-2019 03:19 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 01:52 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 12:07 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Oh good. It's that time that comes around two calendar days every year when I hate you all for continually bringing this nonsense up.

If there were ever a time i wish the board had GIFs

(01-22-2019 01:52 PM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 12:07 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Time for our annual smack talk/banter with our friends from Williamsburg, plus noted Tribe fan CG Hawk 06, for those interested: https://csnbbs.com/thread-868882.html

Oh good. It's that time that comes around two calendar days every year when I hate you all for continually bringing this nonsense up.

Where has Tribal been CG? You two should start a W&M podcast

A note from the Tribe board regarding their reliance on 3-point shooting:

2017-18: 177th in 3s attempted, 25.06 attempted 3s/game, made 43.4% (1st overall)
2018-19: 58th in 3s attempted, 25.42 attempted 3s game, made 33.3% (223rd overall)

It was noted that a lot of this is due to W&M trailing in games and trying to play "catch-up". But, naturally, this is a great opportunity for W&M to sink a lot more of their many three ball attempts.

Another note on W&M I didn't mention earlier: 5 of their first 7 games were at home. That doesn't bode well for them as the league is about to hit the halfway point in league play this week.

(01-23-2019 08:31 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  A note from the Tribe board regarding their reliance on 3-point shooting:

2017-18: 177th in 3s attempted, 25.06 attempted 3s/game, made 43.4% (1st overall)
2018-19: 58th in 3s attempted, 25.42 attempted 3s game, made 33.3% (223rd overall)

It was noted that a lot of this is due to W&M trailing in games and trying to play "catch-up". But, naturally, this is a great opportunity for W&M to sink a lot more of their many three ball attempts.

Another note on W&M I didn't mention earlier: 5 of their first 7 games were at home. That doesn't bode well for them as the league is about to hit the halfway point in league play this week.

Would it be too much to expect that the obvious game plan is to chase high % shooters off the line by not being late on weak side closeouts?? PLEASE not another team recording a personal best against us...

(01-23-2019 08:45 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 08:31 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  A note from the Tribe board regarding their reliance on 3-point shooting:

2017-18: 177th in 3s attempted, 25.06 attempted 3s/game, made 43.4% (1st overall)
2018-19: 58th in 3s attempted, 25.42 attempted 3s game, made 33.3% (223rd overall)

It was noted that a lot of this is due to W&M trailing in games and trying to play "catch-up". But, naturally, this is a great opportunity for W&M to sink a lot more of their many three ball attempts.

Another note on W&M I didn't mention earlier: 5 of their first 7 games were at home. That doesn't bode well for them as the league is about to hit the halfway point in league play this week.

Would it be too much to expect that the obvious game plan is to chase high % shooters off the line by not being late on weak side closeouts?? PLEASE not another team recording a personal best against us...

PREACH!!! Our weak side closeouts are downright pitiful... I can't count on two hands how many times I saw Jay Estime in a highlight "looking" like he was defending a 3 by jumping from basically the low block last weekend and Jay has been one of our "better" defenders this season! (Estime tends to play a lot better at home) Teams are well aware this is our major weakness on Defense, along with stopping dribble penetration. I don't care if this is a down year for W&M or who's out for them. You know they are going to play smart and move the ball around until they get the best look, usually from 3. Shaver will have his squad well prepared, he always does. Nathan Knight is quite the talent as well, but I don't see him being a major threat with Cacok and O'Connell on him. If we don't allow a barrage of open 3s, we should win this game by double digits... Easier said than done...

UNCW isn't going to beat the freaking Tribe by double digits unless they play great. The Tribe is still very well coached and run a good offense. I'd say that the spread would be 5 or so UNCW.

(01-23-2019 09:21 AM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  UNCW isn't going to beat the freaking Tribe by double digits unless they play great. The Tribe is still very well coached and run a good offense. I'd say that the spread would be 5 or so UNCW.

I'm not predicting the spread, just what I think is possible in the matchup. I mentioned the offense they run and that Shaver is a good coach. This is also a team that just lost a home game to Elon. While I don't necessarily think they'll win by double digits, I think it's possible... like you said if they "play great." Is it too much to ask to expect them to play a great game every once in a while...

Theoretically, this is a game that would "get away" from W&M much easier than UNCW. That much is true. They don't have any of the guys who gave us such trouble over the years, even going back to Keatts....David Cohn, Omar Prewitt, Daniel Dixon, Connor Burchfield...and of course, that menace Terry Tarpey. None of those guys are walking through that door.

But while they lack the personnel that caused us so many issues, they still have Shaver. His offensive scheme is a sight to behold when its working well.

This is gut-check time for W&M. They just hit their lowest point of the season with that home loss to Elon, who is a Sub-300 team by any metric you look at. They will have had 4 days to stew over that bad loss and figure out how to make it work. And for all we know, they could be one of those rare teams that sometimes needs to hit the road to get their heads straight. Depends on their mental toughness.

They are also a team that jacks threes, we have not fared well against teams like them!

(01-23-2019 09:49 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Theoretically, this is a game that would "get away" from W&M much easier than UNCW. That much is true. They don't have any of the guys who gave us such trouble over the years, even going back to Keatts....David Cohn, Omar Prewitt, Daniel Dixon, Connor Burchfield...and of course, that menace Terry Tarpey. None of those guys are walking through that door.

But while they lack the personnel that caused us so many issues, they still have Shaver. His offensive scheme is a sight to behold when its working well.

This is gut-check time for W&M. They just hit their lowest point of the season with that home loss to Elon, who is a Sub-300 team by any metric you look at. They will have had 4 days to stew over that bad loss and figure out how to make it work. And for all we know, they could be one of those rare teams that sometimes needs to hit the road to get their heads straight. Depends on their mental toughness.

One team is 'conflicted' about who they are and the other is not. When things don't go well one bench looks like it's in constant bedlam the other composed. Let's hope something clicks defensively for the Hawks. It's exhausting cheering for this team.

For historical context, dating back to when Keatts arrived in 2014 thru today, W&M is 6-2 against us. And one of those wins by us required overtime (97-94) to get it.

Few coaches have fared better against us more consistently in this league than Shaver. The last coach I can think of that always seemed to beat us was Blaine Taylor at ODU. Even Brownell couldn't crack that code.

(01-23-2019 09:55 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  One team is 'conflicted' about who they are and the other is not. When things don't go well one bench looks like it's in constant bedlam the other composed. Let's hope something clicks defensively for the Hawks. It's exhausting cheering for this team.

Eh, I wouldn't say W&M knows entirely who they are at the moment either. As I pointed out in the opening post of this thread, they seem like a team that lacks an identity to an extent. Or at the very least, they can't have bought into the system well enough for Shaver's liking. Yes, Shaver has an offensive scheme that has worked for him over the years, but this iteration of Tribe personnel are far from perfect for that system.

Their big men certainly are well-equipped to handle passing out of the high post, but as a team they also jack up way too many threes. Whereas their best teams only use the 3-ball when needed and rely more on getting easy 2's off great passes.

(01-23-2019 10:02 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 09:55 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  One team is 'conflicted' about who they are and the other is not. When things don't go well one bench looks like it's in constant bedlam the other composed. Let's hope something clicks defensively for the Hawks. It's exhausting cheering for this team.

Eh, I wouldn't say W&M knows entirely who they are at the moment either. As I pointed out in the opening post of this thread, they seem like a team that lacks an identity to an extent. Or at the very least, they can't have bought into the system well enough for Shaver's liking. Yes, Shaver has an offensive scheme that has worked for him over the years, but this iteration of Tribe personnel are far from perfect.

Their big men certainly are well-equipped to handle passing out of the high post, but they also jack up way too many threes. Whereas their best teams only use the 3-ball when needed and rely more on getting easy 2's off great passes.

C'mon. Even with way less talent than last year those players understand what is expected of them by Coach Shaver. It's the execution that is lacking. You can't even compare the two teams in that area.

(01-23-2019 10:05 AM)HAWKING Wrote:  C'mon. Even with way less talent than last year those players understand what is expected of them by Coach Shaver. It's the execution that is lacking. You can't even compare the two teams in that area.

Understanding and executing are two very different things, I'd say. Coach Shaver has an identity and scheme. The players still need to fully buy in and run it the way he wants them to. You don't lose to Elon at home if your players are running the scheme properly.