Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Author Message
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #341
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(05-06-2018 02:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-06-2018 01:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(05-06-2018 01:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  I wondered the same thing. Power status, at least with respect to the BCS/CFP, comes from having one of the participating NY6 bowls committing to having a conference be the designated host every year that they aren't part of the championship rotation.

I think it would have been possible that the Orange Bowl might make (retain) that commitment to the ACC. Maybe more so if they chose to make UCF their 12th team instead of Temple (giving them 3 of the 5 top FBS schools in Florida).

I don't think either the NCAA or the other four power conferences would have had a problem including these schools in the group that is granted autonomy within FBS.

I'm not sure if the remaining four conferences would get a guaranteed spot in a future CFP in this scenario.

UCF would definitely have been a better choice than Temple. The Orange Bowl argument is likely compelling enough to force Miami to stomach another "inferior" Florida school in its conference.

This means that Temple stays with the MAC as a FB affiliate, while CUSA replaces UCF with maybe FIU? And that's a doorway for Georgia State to enter the Sun Belt, although depending on the timing, NMSU could get a full membership invite instead. Having at least 3 Texas schools already in the conference might tip the vote in the Aggies' favor. Or, better yet from the SBC's perspective, just NMSU gets a FB-only invite to balance out non-FB UALR, leaving Idaho and UTA out in the cold.

Following your earlier suggestions, I simply had Temple replacing the only defection from CUSA (UCF). The MWC becomes exactly what they are today, and Idaho and New Mexico State are still the odd men out with La Tech going to the Belt. That leaves no room for the Vandals or Aggies, as South Alabama was already in transition to the Sunbelt.

As to the "power conference" question posed earlier, I calculated the 8 year average Sagarin power ratings for each of the 9 conferences I posited. The results:

SEC......81.1
Big 12..78.3
PAC.....77.4
B1G.....73.9
ACC.....71.4
MWC....63.7
CUSA...62.3
SBC.....60.4
MAC.....59.5

To me that clearly says they don't belong in the same group as the bottom 4.

Temple to CUSA works, although probably only as a FB affiliate. They only gave up the A-10 in our timeline when they received (what was at the time) a Big East invite. Perhaps Wichita State would join CUSA as non-football to balance out Temple.

Would La Tech want to join the Sun Belt again? I was thinking they stay independent in football and in the WAC for non-FB sports so they wouldn't have to be in the same conference as ULM. Even if they did want to join, would there be resistance from ULM and maybe ULL?

And kudos for running the numbers! You're right about the separation between the P5 and G4.
05-06-2018 03:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #342
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
A possible 2018 FBS alignment for an "ACC gutted but Big 12 loses just Colorado" scenario. The Big Ten and SEC have gone divisionless. I also included the ex-FBS Big East and WAC.

Big Ten
Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia, Wisconsin

SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, NC State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

ACC
Atlantic: Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Wake Forest
Coastal: Boston College, Connecticut, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big 12
Central: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M
Plains: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

Pac-12
North: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah

CUSA
East: Central Florida, Charlotte, East Carolina, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Houston, Navy* (Patriot), Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP
NFB: Wichita State

MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii* (Big West), Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia State, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, UTSA
NFB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Louisiana Tech* (WAC), Notre Dame* (Big East), Texas State* (WAC)

Big East
Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova, Xavier

WAC
CSU Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Seattle, Texas State, Texas-Arlington, Utah Valley

* = football only (primary conference)
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2018 07:31 AM by Nerdlinger.)
05-06-2018 09:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
RutgersGuy Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,127
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 152
I Root For: Rutgers
Location:
Post: #343
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
The Big East forming FB in the mid-80's instead of the early 90's goes hard for all eastern independents.

BC, Cuse, Pitt, PSU, Rutgers, Temple, VT, ECU, FSU, Miami, USC (East) and WVU.

North: PSU, BC, Cuse, Rutgers, Temple, Pitt

South: WVU, ECU, USC, VT, Miami, FSU

Basketball schools Georgetown, Villanova, UConn, SJU, Seton Hall, PC.
05-07-2018 10:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GoldenWarrior11 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,680
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 610
I Root For: Marquette, BE
Location: Chicago
Post: #344
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
https://nypost.com/2003/07/02/big-east-leans-on-hoops/

Nice historical article that was posted on the other site. Xavier was being floated as the other potential non-football addition (along with Marquette) in 2003 for the Big East. This would have made the additions as Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida as full-members, and then Marquette and Xavier (not DePaul) as the non-football members. The rumor for Xavier not being selected at the time was that Tranghese did not want to poach from more than one conference. Getting the Crosstown Shootout in the Big East would have been epic.

This would have meant that DePaul would have stayed in Conference USA through 2005, and then likely moved to the A-10 (along with SLU) for 05-06. For the 2013 realignment cycle, DePaul would have been likely considered for the NBE - although depending on how their time in the A-10 goes, may not even have been taken. I believe the market draw of Chicago would have pushed them in regardless.
05-07-2018 10:36 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #345
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
In the vein of previous discussion on the Big East surviving as a football conference, suppose that the proposed TV deal had been accepted in spring 2011. At this point, they had all of their pre-2012 lineup in place, with TCU coming on board in 2012.

With Texas A&M and Missouri going to the SEC, though, the Big 12 will still need two replacements, and it's a no-brainer for TCU to opt for the Big 12 over the Big East. With a Big East TV deal in place, I could see WVU potentially opting not to move, though. In that case, perhaps the Big 12 doubles down on Texas and invites Houston. Thus, the Big East membership remains unchanged for 2012 and 2013.

The Big Ten is still going to invite Rutgers and Maryland, and those two would be foolish to decline. The ACC is then going to seek at least one replacement, and Syracuse is at the top of the list (after Notre Dame of course, but they're still sticking with the Big East here). It's not a sure thing that Syracuse accepts the invite, but I think they do for the sake of stability. Even though the Big East has bought itself more time, it remains a rather shaky coalition.

Down two football schools, the Big East adds UCF (over the objections of USF) and Memphis. At this point, I don't think the Big East is regarded as a true power conference and so is relegated to the G5. A split between the football and basketball schools is probably inevitable, especially with Syracuse gone. CUSA restocks on Sun Belt schools as in our timeline although hasn't been raided as badly. So by 2018, maybe we have something like this:

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 12
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East
FB: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, South Florida, West Virginia
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

CUSA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, South Alabama
NFB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Navy* (Patriot), New Mexico State* (WAC), Notre Dame* (Big East), Texas State* (WAC)

The Big Ten, MWC, Pac-12, and SEC are the same as in our timeline.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2018 11:46 AM by Nerdlinger.)
06-15-2018 11:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,895
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 807
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #346
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(06-15-2018 11:04 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  In the vein of previous discussion on the Big East surviving as a football conference, suppose that the proposed TV deal had been accepted in spring 2011. At this point, they had all of their pre-2012 lineup in place, with TCU coming on board in 2012.

With Texas A&M and Missouri going to the SEC, though, the Big 12 will still need two replacements, and it's a no-brainer for TCU to opt for the Big 12 over the Big East. With a Big East TV deal in place, I could see WVU potentially opting not to move, though. In that case, perhaps the Big 12 doubles down on Texas and invites Houston. Thus, the Big East membership remains unchanged for 2012 and 2013.

The Big Ten is still going to invite Rutgers and Maryland, and those two would be foolish to decline. The ACC is then going to seek at least one replacement, and Syracuse is the at top of the list (after Notre Dame of course, but they're still sticking with the Big East here). It's not a sure thing that Syracuse accepts the invite, but I think they do for the sake of stability. Even though the Big East has bought itself more time, it remains a rather shaky coalition.

Down two football schools, the Big East adds UCF (over the objections of USF) and Memphis. At this point, I don't think the Big East is regarded as a true power conference and so is relegated to the G5. A split between the football and basketball schools is probably inevitable, especially with Syracuse gone. CUSA restocks on Sun Belt schools as in our timeline, although hasn't been raided as badly. So by 2018, maybe we have something like this:

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 12
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East
FB: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, South Florida, West Virginia
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

CUSA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, South Alabama
NFB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Navy* (Patriot), New Mexico State* (WAC), Notre Dame* (Big East), Texas State* (WAC)

The Big Ten, MWC, Pac-12, and SEC are the same as in our timeline.

It's an interesting and well thought out scenario but I don't think any amount of money was going to keep Pitt and Syracuse in the Big East. Those programs are tired of playing the part of holding the dysfunctional BE family together.
06-15-2018 11:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #347
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
For those of you with (serious) "what if" scenarios you'd like to discuss, here's a dedicated catchall thread!
09-27-2018 02:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,895
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 807
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #348
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(09-27-2018 02:32 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  For those of you with (serious) "what if" scenarios you'd like to discuss, here's a dedicated catchall thread!

I prefer the topic specific threads. It's much easier to follow the conversation and you don't feel like you are derailing the thread if there's a new scenario you want to explore.

Just my 2 cents
09-27-2018 07:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Poster Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,084
Joined: Sep 2018
Reputation: 162
I Root For: Auburn
Location:
Post: #349
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
I wonder what would have occurred if Texas politicians hadn't UT and A&M to go to the Big 8 in the 1990s since that was the only conference that would also take Texas Tech and Baylor.

I think Texas would have gone to the PAC 10 and TAMU would have gone to the SEC. I think Colorado would have been Texas' partner in the PAC and OU would have been TAMU's partner in the SEC. Nebraska would have joined the Big 10. (Note that, in real life, the Big 8 was in grave danger of losing members until the Texas schools joined.)


The remaining 11 Big 8 and SWC schools merge together to form this conference.
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
SMU
Rice
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State

They might add BYU so they can get to 12 teams and a championship game.
09-29-2018 06:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
chargeradio Offline
Vamos Morados
*

Posts: 7,484
Joined: Mar 2007
Reputation: 122
I Root For: ALA, KY, USA
Location: Louisville, KY
Post: #350
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
How about a P5 with 13-team conferences?

Pac 13 - add Texas Tech
Big 13 - Texas Tech to Pac 13; keep Missouri, Nebraska; add Pittsburgh, Louisville
ACC - Pittsburgh, Louisville to Big 13; Notre Dame becomes full member
SEC - Missouri to Big 13
Big 10 - Nebraska to Big 13

Then the G5 follows:

Mountain West - adds BYU
MAC - adds Marshall
Sun Belt - adds Charlotte, Old Dominion, Liberty
AAC - adds UMass (football only)
C-USA - Charlotte, Old Dominion, UAB to Sun Belt; adds New Mexico State

With 8 conference games, everyone has 4 fixed rivals, and plays 4 of the other 8 teams each year. The P5 then moves to 10 conference games.
10-14-2018 02:13 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
McKinney Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 550
Joined: Dec 2017
Reputation: 37
I Root For: UMass, Army, Rutgers
Location: New Brunswick, NJ
Post: #351
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-14-2018 02:13 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  How about a P5 with 13-team conferences?

Pac 13 - add Texas Tech
Big 13 - Texas Tech to Pac 13; keep Missouri, Nebraska; add Pittsburgh, Louisville
ACC - Pittsburgh, Louisville to Big 13; Notre Dame becomes full member
SEC - Missouri to Big 13
Big 10 - Nebraska to Big 13

Then the G5 follows:

Mountain West - adds BYU
MAC - adds Marshall
Sun Belt - adds Charlotte, Old Dominion, Liberty
AAC - adds UMass (football only)
C-USA - Charlotte, Old Dominion, UAB to Sun Belt; adds New Mexico State

With 8 conference games, everyone has 4 fixed rivals, and plays 4 of the other 8 teams each year. The P5 then moves to 10 conference games.

You sure the AAC would want our football? I'll be the first to admit we have far more success and potential success in basketball.
10-14-2018 02:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 23,067
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 781
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #352
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
NYU-Patriot
CCNY CAA?
OKCU MVC
Lebanon Valley NEC?
Hardin-Simmons Southland
Springfield NEC
Catholic U. CAA
Tufts AEC
Loyola, New Orleans Summitt
Williams Patriot
West Texas A&M C-USA, North Texas stays in SBC, UTA stays in WAC, Coastal Carolina stays FCS, UNF in SBC for non-football.
Wayne State, Michigan MAC, EMU in FCS
Trinity Texas Southland or WAC
CSU-L.A. Big West, CSU-Bakersfield stays in WAC
10-15-2018 06:09 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #353
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(09-29-2018 06:18 PM)Poster Wrote:  I wonder what would have occurred if Texas politicians hadn't UT and A&M to go to the Big 8 in the 1990s since that was the only conference that would also take Texas Tech and Baylor.

I think Texas would have gone to the PAC 10 and TAMU would have gone to the SEC. I think Colorado would have been Texas' partner in the PAC and OU would have been TAMU's partner in the SEC. Nebraska would have joined the Big 10. (Note that, in real life, the Big 8 was in grave danger of losing members until the Texas schools joined.)


The remaining 11 Big 8 and SWC schools merge together to form this conference.
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
SMU
Rice
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State

They might add BYU so they can get to 12 teams and a championship game.

Cool. What happened to Arkansas, though?
10-19-2018 08:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #354
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-14-2018 02:13 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  How about a P5 with 13-team conferences?

Pac 13 - add Texas Tech
Big 13 - Texas Tech to Pac 13; keep Missouri, Nebraska; add Pittsburgh, Louisville
ACC - Pittsburgh, Louisville to Big 13; Notre Dame becomes full member
SEC - Missouri to Big 13
Big 10 - Nebraska to Big 13

Then the G5 follows:

Mountain West - adds BYU
MAC - adds Marshall
Sun Belt - adds Charlotte, Old Dominion, Liberty
AAC - adds UMass (football only)
C-USA - Charlotte, Old Dominion, UAB to Sun Belt; adds New Mexico State

With 8 conference games, everyone has 4 fixed rivals, and plays 4 of the other 8 teams each year. The P5 then moves to 10 conference games.

Unlucky number 13! Works out for a nice 4+4/4 conference schedule, although having an odd number of teams requires byes or OOC games to fill in the gaps.

As long as we're doing unrealistic alignments, how about a 4x15 power conference scenario?

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Wake Forest
Coastal: Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, NC State
Eastern: Miami-FL, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Boston College

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
Central: Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois
West: Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas

Pac-15
East: Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah
Pacific: UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, California
West: USC, Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona State, Stanford

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, West Virginia
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
West: LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Also, here's the rebuilt Big 12, now a non-power conference:

Big 12
North: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Oklahoma State
South: Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, TCU

P4 conference schedules are 8 games, with each team playing its division every year plus 1 protected crossover and 1 rotating crossover in each of the other 2 divisions. The teams are ordered within their divisions so that their protected crossovers are in the same "column" (e.g., Clemson's protected crossovers are Florida State and Miami, etc.). Conference championships are 2-round affairs, with the 3 division champs and a wild card duking it out.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2018 03:35 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-19-2018 08:28 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GO Coogs GO!!! Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,847
Joined: Dec 2010
Reputation: 59
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #355
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-19-2018 08:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-29-2018 06:18 PM)Poster Wrote:  I wonder what would have occurred if Texas politicians hadn't UT and A&M to go to the Big 8 in the 1990s since that was the only conference that would also take Texas Tech and Baylor.

I think Texas would have gone to the PAC 10 and TAMU would have gone to the SEC. I think Colorado would have been Texas' partner in the PAC and OU would have been TAMU's partner in the SEC. Nebraska would have joined the Big 10. (Note that, in real life, the Big 8 was in grave danger of losing members until the Texas schools joined.)


The remaining 11 Big 8 and SWC schools merge together to form this conference.
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
SMU
Rice
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State

They might add BYU so they can get to 12 teams and a championship game.

Cool. What happened to Arkansas, though?

Arkansas left the conference in 1991 five years earlier.
10-19-2018 09:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #356
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(03-21-2018 09:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Revisiting a successful Texoma gambit by the Pac in 2010. Here the ACC and Big 12 are gutted. The remnants band together with Notre Dame, TCU, and a few BE football schools to survive as a power conference. Baylor is left out in the cold.

ACC/Big 16
East: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Syracuse
North: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
West: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU

Big Ten
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
North: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
South: Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

The non-power schools align pretty much the same as in our timeline. What's particularly interesting to me about this scenario is how strong the "leftover" conference is. The weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR*) for football from 1998-2017 for the average team in each P4 conference:

SEC: 79.59
Pac-16: 78.64
ACC/Big 16: 76.01
Big Ten: 74.90

* How to calculate current WMSR for a school, using Youngstown State as an example:

Year: Sagarin rating * Weight = Weighted Sagarin rating
1998: 48.76 * 1 = 48.76
1999: 64.47 * 2 = 128.94
2000: 57.43 * 3 = 172.29
2001: 55.00 * 4 = 220.00
2002: 57.94 * 5 = 289.70
2003: 49.54 * 6 = 297.24
2004: 46.25 * 7 = 323.75
2005: 62.39 * 8 = 499.12
2006: 68.55 * 9 = 616.95
2007: 60.83 * 10 = 608.30
2008: 43.52 * 11 = 478.72
2009: 51.71 * 12 = 620.52
2010: 52.29 * 13 = 679.77
2011: 60.01 * 14 = 840.14
2012: 63.57 * 15 = 953.55
2013: 60.39 * 16 = 966.24
2014: 60.15 * 17 = 1,022.55
2015: 58.88 * 18 = 1,059.84
2016: 69.48 * 19 = 1,320.12
2017: 62.34 * 20 = 1,246.80

Sum of weighted Sagarin ratings for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30
Sum of weights for 1998-2017 = 210
Weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR) for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30 / 210 = 59.02

Note: 1998 is the first year Sagarin rating came out for football

Re-revisiting this successful Texoma-to-Pac scenario. In reality, if the current Big 12 survives the expiration of its GoR intact and renews for a decade or so, this scenario could actually come to pass in the 2030s when the ACC GoR expires (assuming the market mantra still holds sway in conference expansion decisions).

In any case, for fun, I developed schedules for the P4 conferences. The ACC/Big 16 and SEC have 8-game schedules, with the 4-team pods rotating between two 8-team divisions in a 3-year cycle. Each year, a team plays its division plus 1 interdivision crossover. Each team has a protected crossover for the 2 years out of 3 in which they're not in the same division, as well as an alternate crossover for the 1 year they share a division with the protected crossover. It takes 3 years to play every team once and 6 years to play every team home and away. In that 6-year time span, a team plays their division mates and protected crossover 6 times, their alternate crossover 4 times, and all other teams twice. Here are the crossovers for each team:

Team: Protected Crossover, Alternate Crossover

ACC/Big 16

East
Boston College: Duke, Iowa State
Florida State: Clemson, Kansas State
Miami-FL: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
Syracuse: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest

North
Louisville: Iowa State, Duke
West Virginia: Kansas State, Clemson
Notre Dame: Miami-FL, TCU
Pittsburgh: Syracuse, Kansas

South
Duke: Boston College, Louisville
Clemson: Florida State, West Virginia
Georgia Tech: TCU, Miami-FL
Wake Forest: Kansas, Syracuse

West
Iowa State: Louisville, Boston College
Kansas State: West Virginia, Florida State
TCU: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame
Kansas: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh

============

SEC

East
Florida: LSU, Tennessee
Georgia: Auburn, Texas A&M
NC State: Mississippi State, Missouri
South Carolina: Arkansas, Vanderbilt

North
Tennessee: Alabama, Florida
Virginia Tech: Texas A&M, Auburn
Kentucky: Missouri, Mississippi State
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, South Carolina

South
Alabama: Tennessee, LSU
Auburn: Georgia, Virginia Tech
Mississippi State: NC State, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, Arkansas

West
LSU: Florida, Alabama
Texas A&M: Virginia Tech, Georgia
Missouri: Kentucky, NC State
Arkansas: South Carolina, Ole Miss

The Big Ten and Pac-16 have 9-game conference schedules with no protected crossovers. Their pods also cycle between divisions, but the North and South never share a division, nor do the East and West. For two years, there are Northeast and Southwest Divisions, and for the next two years, there are Northwest and Southeast Divisions. For each team in the Big Ten, the 2 interdivision crossovers per year are only against teams in the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). This results in each Big Ten team playing all other teams at least twice in 4 years. The Pac-16 has a skewed schedule wherein the interdivision crossovers are against a team in each of the 2 pods that constitute the other division. Consequently, in an 8-year span, a team plays each of its pod mates 8 times, each team in the opposite pod twice, and each team in the other 2 pods an average of 5 times (either 4 or 6). This allows the North and South schools greater access to California (and incidentally Texas) than they would have had with the Big Ten's schedule structure.

Any thoughts? I can share the schedule grids if anyone's interested.
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2019 10:34 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-19-2018 09:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #357
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-19-2018 09:02 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  
(10-19-2018 08:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-29-2018 06:18 PM)Poster Wrote:  I wonder what would have occurred if Texas politicians hadn't UT and A&M to go to the Big 8 in the 1990s since that was the only conference that would also take Texas Tech and Baylor.

I think Texas would have gone to the PAC 10 and TAMU would have gone to the SEC. I think Colorado would have been Texas' partner in the PAC and OU would have been TAMU's partner in the SEC. Nebraska would have joined the Big 10. (Note that, in real life, the Big 8 was in grave danger of losing members until the Texas schools joined.)


The remaining 11 Big 8 and SWC schools merge together to form this conference.
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
SMU
Rice
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State

They might add BYU so they can get to 12 teams and a championship game.

Cool. What happened to Arkansas, though?

Arkansas left the conference in 1991 five years earlier.

The scenario seemed to be that the SEC went to 12 with OU and A&M instead of Arkansas and SC. Maybe they added all of them and went to 14.

SEC
Eastern: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
Western: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Not bad. The only really necessary protected crossover is Tennessee/Vanderbilt, as I see it.
10-19-2018 09:07 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
templefootballfan Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,640
Joined: Jan 2005
Reputation: 164
I Root For: TU & BGSU & TEX
Location: CLAYMONT DE Temple T
Post: #358
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
what is the point of divisionless
10-19-2018 12:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Nerdlinger Offline
Realignment Enthusiast
*

Posts: 4,914
Joined: May 2017
Reputation: 423
I Root For: Realignment!
Location: Schmlocation
Post: #359
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(10-19-2018 12:49 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  what is the point of divisionless

Greater freedom in conference scheduling and conference championship structure.
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2018 12:53 PM by Nerdlinger.)
10-19-2018 12:53 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GoldenWarrior11 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,680
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 610
I Root For: Marquette, BE
Location: Chicago
Post: #360
RE: Alternate History College Sports Realignment Scenarios
Nerdlinger, I would re-arrange your North and East Divisions as follows:

Atlantic - Boston College, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Coastal - Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia
10-19-2018 01:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.