Which G5 team has the hardest schedule this year? And if they go undefeated is there a chance they will make the CFP?

Probably Boise St or UCF as both have strong OOC schedules could plausibly go undefeated.

Boise probably has the biggest opportunity at a marquee win (week 3 @Okla St) but UCF has the advantage of last seasons momentum. Wouldn’t thinkneither is likely though

(08-05-2018 03:08 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  Probably Boise St or UCF as both have strong OOC schedules could plausibly go undefeated.

Boise probably has the biggest opportunity at a marquee win (week 3 @Okla St) but UCF has the advantage of last seasons momentum. Wouldn’t thinkneither is likely though

Boise has a lot better schedule.

UCF only has UNC and Pitt.

Even though it is a huge long shot, the Cajuns have one of the best schedules out there playing both Alabama and Miss St. If they were to go, by some miracle, undefeated it would be hard to not have them in the conversation.

None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever. Every P5 team plays between 8-10 P5 teams. It is impossible for any G5 to play more than 4 P5 teams. Thus, simple math tells you that every single P5 team will finish ahead of every single G5 team in SOS. Therefore---the highest SOS a G5 can have is 66th--assuming they finish ahead of every indy schedule. As long as SOS is the first screen used to eliminate teams from the CFP selection process and as long as the Selection Committee finds it impossible to understand that a great playoff quality team can be saddled with a weak schedule due to the idiosyncrasies of college football---there will never be a G5 team in the playoff.

The point of the selection committee is supposed to be---find the best 4 teams. Its not supposed to find the best 4 schedules. Its not supposed to find the 4 most deserving. Its supposed to find the 4 best. Schedule may or may not have a thing with that. lol....I will now step off my soap box and start getting myself excited for real college football that is actually less than a month away!!! For now---the race to be the G5 access bowl representative will have to suffice as a the summit of G5 performance.

Id say UCF, Boise, Houston, Memphis, Fresno, USF, and possibly FAU all look to have a shot at the access bowl.

Only way a G5 will ever make CFP is if they have two consecutive magic seasons in a row. UCF would have been a great candidate if they had kept their Coach. If they still had their coach they most likely enter this season ranked around #15. If they proceeded to go undefeated it would cause a huge uproar to keep them out of the CFP after what they did last year.

Other than that there would have to be a G5 team with a fair amount of hype going into the season with an initial ranking of 17-18 or less who proceeded to curb stomp their schedule and have at least a win over a Top 12 ranked team and preferably have 2-3 wins over ranked opponents.

It would take a damn near miracle with the CFP only open to the best 4 teams right now and 5 Power Conferences vying for one of those 4 slots. Heck half the time the SEC has a legitimate claim to two spots

I guess it also depends on how good those opponents end up being this year. For example, in our school's choice, if WMU beats Syracuse and Michigan and both of those teams go on a tear this year that would also help us. I honestly don't see it possible for a G5 team to make it into the 4 team playoff as long as G5 schools only schedule 1-2 P5 matchups per year.

Prediciton: UCF, Boise St, WMU, and Ragin Cajuns all go undefeated. Alabama goes 11-1 with a loss to the Rajun Cajuns, Michigan goes 11-1 w/ loss to WMU and both get shafted by the committee.

WMU vs UCF in rose bowl
Boise St vs Cajuns in sugar bowl

WMU vs Boise St in championship, game records highest attendance and viewership ratings of all time- WMU wins 71-68 in 7OT

WMU are national champs

If you disagree, oh well

(08-05-2018 03:58 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  Prediciton: UCF, Boise St, WMU, and Ragin Cajuns all go undefeated. Alabama goes 11-1 with a loss to the Rajun Cajuns, Michigan goes 11-1 w/ loss to WMU and both get shafted by the committee.

WMU vs UCF in rose bowl
Boise St vs Cajuns in sugar bowl

WMU vs Boise St in championship, game records highest attendance and viewership ratings of all time- WMU wins 71-68 in 7OT

WMU are national champs

If you disagree, oh well

I only have 1 problem with this. The Rose and Sugar are not the semi-finals this year.

(08-05-2018 04:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:58 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  Prediciton: UCF, Boise St, WMU, and Ragin Cajuns all go undefeated. Alabama goes 11-1 with a loss to the Rajun Cajuns, Michigan goes 11-1 w/ loss to WMU and both get shafted by the committee.

WMU vs UCF in rose bowl
Boise St vs Cajuns in sugar bowl

WMU vs Boise St in championship, game records highest attendance and viewership ratings of all time- WMU wins 71-68 in 7OT

WMU are national champs

If you disagree, oh well

I only have 1 problem with this. The Rose and Sugar are not the semi-finals this year.

Yup, I would say otherwise Fthechips nailed it.

The g5 is not apart of the A5 playoffs so it’s a moot question

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

(08-05-2018 04:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

I don’t see how. That UH 2016 schedule had a lower SOS than the 2017 UCF schedule that was dismissed by the committee as too weak.

(08-05-2018 05:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 04:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

I don’t see how. That UH 2016 schedule had a lower SOS than the 2017 UCF schedule that was dismissed by the committee as too weak.

All the committee had to do was stick Houston at #5 and no one could have done a damn thing to stop them.

I think it's ridiculous to think that that Houston team would have forced the CFP to put them in the playoff.

(08-05-2018 05:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 04:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

I don’t see how. That UH 2016 schedule had a lower SOS than the 2017 UCF schedule that was dismissed by the committee as too weak.

Average SOS, but the peaks are what would matter. You'd have an undefeated conference champ that beat a P5 champ and a very high-rated ACC contender.

That's the problem the committee has with the UCFs and Boises when they are unbeaten and have a SOS of around 75 - their best win is usually in-conference, a win over a #20 ranked team from their own G5 conference, which doesn't prove they could hang with P5 big boys.

No committee is ever going to be impressed with UCF's 'signature win' being over #21 Memphis or Boise's being a win over #20 Fresno State.

But you beat #5 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, then you have something.

(08-05-2018 06:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 05:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 04:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

I don’t see how. That UH 2016 schedule had a lower SOS than the 2017 UCF schedule that was dismissed by the committee as too weak.

Average SOS, but the peaks are what would matter. You'd have an undefeated conference champ that beat a P5 champ and a very high-rated ACC contender.

That's the problem the committee has with the UCFs and Boises when they are unbeaten and have a SOS of around 75 - their best win is usually in-conference, a win over a #20 ranked team from their own G5 conference, which doesn't prove they could hang with P5 big boys.

No committee is ever going to be impressed with UCF's 'signature win' being over #21 Memphis or Boise's being a win over #20 Fresno State.

But you beat #5 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, then you have something.

Gotta schedule big if you wanna make it.

NIU scheduled for a lightning-in-a-bottle year:
@ Iowa
vs Utah
@ Florida St
@ BYU

In 2003, NIU won a pair of top 25 games vs Maryland and @ Alabama, plus vs Iowa State, and reached #10 in the BCS standings before losing on College Gameday at top-25 Bowling Green (who won @ #16 Purdue & lost by 7 @ #4 Ohio St).

NIU dropped a 2nd game that year to Toledo, who beat top-10 Pittsburgh in the Glass Bowl.

Watershed year for the MAC. NIU wasn’t invited to a bowl, but 6-6 Northwestern was (to lose to a MAC team)!

(08-05-2018 06:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NIU scheduled for a lightning-in-a-bottle year:
@ Iowa
vs Utah
@ Florida St
@ BYU

In 2003, NIU won a pair of top 25 games vs Maryland and @ Alabama, plus vs Iowa State, and reached #10 in the BCS standings before losing on College Gameday at top-25 Bowling Green (who lost by 7 @ Ohio St who finished #4).

NIU dropped a 2nd game that year to Toledo, who beat top-10 Pittsburgh in the Glass Bowl.

Watershed year for the MAC. NIU wasn’t invited to a bowl, but 6-6 Northwestern was (to lose to a MAC team)!

I’m excited to see how NIU does this year. All four of those OOC games are winnable I’d say. No way you’re beating WMU at Waldo tho

(08-05-2018 06:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NIU scheduled for a lightning-in-a-bottle year:
@ Iowa
vs Utah
@ Florida St
@ BYU

That's a whale of an OOC schedule, and yes, that's what G5 schools like my USF have to schedule to gain more credibility. If even two of those three P5 teams are good an in contention for their conference titles, an NIU win over any of them would be huge for NIU.

Good luck - especially versus FSU.

(08-05-2018 06:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 05:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 04:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-05-2018 03:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  None. Not one G5 team has any shot what so ever.

If Houston had run the table the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville, playoffs.

I don’t see how. That UH 2016 schedule had a lower SOS than the 2017 UCF schedule that was dismissed by the committee as too weak.

Average SOS, but the peaks are what would matter. You'd have an undefeated conference champ that beat a P5 champ and a very high-rated ACC contender.

That's the problem the committee has with the UCFs and Boises when they are unbeaten and have a SOS of around 75 - their best win is usually in-conference, a win over a #20 ranked team from their own G5 conference, which doesn't prove they could hang with P5 big boys.

No committee is ever going to be impressed with UCF's 'signature win' being over #21 Memphis or Boise's being a win over #20 Fresno State.

But you beat #5 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, then you have something.

Garbage in, garbage out. Same big boy mentality. We don't have any conclusive way to prove teams in the power leagues are better than outsiders other conjecture and assumptions. Then when it's proven wrong on the field, it's ignored.

So what they play 8-10 teams from the 65, teams 25-75 overall are roughly equal and no not close to all of them are from the so called P5.

Another measure of schedule strength which I think the selection committee considers, at least privately, is how many times during the season was your team exposed to a realistic chance of losing. For any teams that might be considered for a CFP berth, that would be at the very least how many games did you win against Top 50 schools and how many did you lose.

The problem so many potential G5 candidates face is that these will always be fewer than any of the top P5 teams. So, while Boise State might have the best SOS overall within the G5, they will only play one team that was ranked in the Top 50 by Sagarin last year. There is naturally a danger in basing speculation on how this year's opponents did last year, rather than this year. Unfortunately, my crystal ball is in the shop right now, so I cant use 2018 rankings.

UCF plays four such teams, more than most contenders. But the highest ranked among those was #32. Houston had the same problem. Memphis is their best opponent based on last year.

The selection committee sees that most of the top P5 contenders play six or more such opponents. While they don't have the luxury of seeing how someone like last year's UCF would have done if they had been able to play an SEC schedule, they have to at least speculate about it. And they, like virtually all pollsters, reach the same conclusion. That is, that they would have lost at least one of them and probably more.

That's going to be the case this year as well. That sucks for the best G5 team. But there really isn't much anybody can do about it.