(08-04-2018 01:37 PM)ODU AGGIE Wrote: This was no easy task. I made a first cut at it, but didn't like what I had when I got through. Then a true brain fart hit me. I've been tracking Uncle Matt's countdown for two months. Why not use his rankings to establish relative quality of the teams and then use the differential to quantify the probability of a win by the C-USA team. Games listed in red are those where the C-USA team should actually be favored -- according to this dubious system that I have concocted. So Joe -- since you asked for it, UNT better give the Razorbacks a pretty good whipping.
From most winnable to least -- here you go.
045. 46 UNT@Arkansas 91
007. 47 NC State@Marshall 40
010. 93 Baylor@UTSA 103
014. 56 MT@Kentucky 69
014. 40 Marshall@S Carolina 26
024.103 UTSA@Arizona St 79
025. 36 FAU@Oklahoma 11
029. 53 UAB@Texas A&M 24
030. 92. Indiana@FIU 122
032. 98 WKU@Louisville 66
037. 125 Charlotte@Tennessee 88
038. 49 LA Tech@LSU 11
038, 49 LA Tech@Miss State 11
041.129 UTEP@Tennessee 88
045. 56 MT@Georgia 11
050. 56 MT@Vandy 106
075. 11 Virginia Tech@ODU 86
079. 103 UTSA@Kansas St 44
084. 95 USM@Auburn 11
084. 127 Rice@Wake Forest 43
087. 98 WKU@Wisconsin 11
101. FIU 122 @Miami 11 101
116. 127 Rice@LSU 11
Oh, by the way, since the countdown is not complete, I used the mid point of the remaining rankings (11) as the estimated ranking of the for those teams that have yet to be ranked.
AGGIE, MT should be a - 56, on the Vandy game and - 13 on the Kentucky game.....? if I understand your system.
056. MT@Vandy (50-106 = - 56)
and the
013. MT@Kentucky (50 - 69 =-13)
If I understand what you have done...
056. 56MT@Vandy 106
045. 46 UNT@Arkansas 91
013. 56 MT@Kentucky 69
007. 47 NC State@Marshall 40
010. 93 Baylor@UTSA 103
014. 40 Marshall@S Carolina 26
024.103 UTSA@Arizona St 79
025. 36 FAU@Oklahoma 11
029. 53 UAB@Texas A&M 24
030. 92. Indiana@FIU 122
032. 98 WKU@Louisville 66
037. 125 Charlotte@Tennessee 88
038. 49 LA Tech@LSU 11
038, 49 LA Tech@Miss State 11
041.129 UTEP@Tennessee 88
045. 56 MT@Georgia 11
075. 11 Virginia Tech@ODU 86
079. 103 UTSA@Kansas St 44
084. 95 USM@Auburn 11
084. 127 Rice@Wake Forest 43
087. 98 WKU@Wisconsin 11
101. FIU 122 @Miami 11 101
116. 127 Rice@LSU 11