Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

If it's just one school making a move then it might be kept quiet until the very last minute, like Maryland's move to the Big Ten. If you're talking about something affecting a large number of schools, that's too many mouths to keep shut for very long. Several schools on the move, or an entire conference breaking up and moving on? Not likely to keep that completely quiet.

(04-15-2018 09:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If it's just one school making a move then it might be kept quiet until the very last minute, like Maryland's move to the Big Ten. If you're talking about something affecting a large number of schools, that's too many mouths to keep shut for very long. Several schools on the move, or an entire conference breaking up and moving on? Not likely to keep that completely quiet.

That depends. If a network works it out between the schools and conferences, all of it will be over with before any leaks could hurt it. There have been 6 to 8 school moves that were conceived and almost happened without anyone knowing. And there have been moves of two or four that everyone heard about ahead of time that fell apart too. The difference was that at the time some parties were interested in going in one direction while others another. And more than one conference was involved.

ESPN has the ability to handle it all in house if it is between the SEC and ACC and if FOX is aware but not objectionable it can be set up and preliminaries signed before a press release.

The PAC has that ability as well. If you sell your rights to the PACN you can handle it in house. If you want to expand and it's around 2023 you might be able to pull the secrecy of that off as well. What you won't be able to do is sell an interest in the PACN and facilitate earlier movement, that is unless it is ESPN that buys into the PACN and has an interest in Big 12 rights as well. Then the same in house arrangement that is possible with the ACC or SEC would be in play for the PAC.

If there is cooperation between FOX and ESPN then selling the PACN to FOX could work just as quietly and the same way.

The players already know what they want. The schools already have contingencies. The process that normally takes two years and results in a contract signing at the end, could easily involve a contract signing after financial promises are made and signed, that way the integration process for after initial signings on value and contracts. Business procedures, like math, are sometimes commutative in nature depending upon the circumstances and the players. NDA's buy the rest of the time and if the presidents and trustees line up the agreeable preferences for destination in advance of offers (which some have already done) then yes, secrecy can be accomplished.

(04-15-2018 10:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The difference was that at the time some parties were interested in going in one direction while others another.

There are many moves that we could imagine that would have this problem, i.e., the proposed move doesn't have unanimous agreement among everyone involved, and the disgruntled people leak about it.

The moves that are most likely to happen are the ones that involve only one or two schools and have so much momentum behind them that even leaks and protests can't stop it. Texas A&M moving to the SEC is a good example of that.

(04-15-2018 10:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 10:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The difference was that at the time some parties were interested in going in one direction while others another.

There are many moves that we could imagine that would have this problem, i.e., the proposed move doesn't have unanimous agreement among everyone involved, and the disgruntled people leak about it.

The moves that are most likely to happen are the ones that involve only one or two schools and have so much momentum behind them that even leaks and protests can't stop it. Texas A&M moving to the SEC is a good example of that.

Wedge, if the whole Big 12 could be promised new P5 homes the division of the schools could be handled between FOX and ESPN and the whole conference closed and moved without leaks until the paper work was signed. Where to would be the issues worked out with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Everyone else would simply be relieved to have a home. Solve the first three and the rest won't complain.

Maryland to the B1G wasn't a very well kept secret. For 2 years the only secret was not if but when the move would take place.

IIRC, the B12 media contracts run through 2025. 2019 might be a little early unless there was a major increase in compensation. It would seem to be in the B12s best interest to at least start renegotiating. That forces ESPN/FOX to say, "We will pay $X for the B12 or $Y if you move to this conference.?

I also wonder about carving up the B12. Does ESPN/Fox believe getting Texas and Oklahoma is worth giving up the P12 network? Or do they work out some split? One gets UT and 1/2 the P12 network, etc.

I can't imagine CBS, NBC and others would not cry foul if they are kept out.

(04-15-2018 10:36 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  Maryland to the B1G wasn't a very well kept secret. For 2 years the only secret was not if but when the move would take place.

IIRC, the B12 media contracts run through 2025. 2019 might be a little early unless there was a major increase in compensation. It would seem to be in the B12s best interest to at least start renegotiating. That forces ESPN/FOX to say, "We will pay $X for the B12 or $Y if you move to this conference.?

I also wonder about carving up the B12. Does ESPN/Fox believe getting Texas and Oklahoma is worth giving up the P12 network? Or do they work out some split? One gets UT and 1/2 the P12 network, etc.

I can't imagine CBS, NBC and others would not cry foul if they are kept out.

Well that's the whole point. ESPN and FOX split rights in the Big 12 with regard to T1 and T2. The T3 rights are mostly held for the bigger players between FOX and ESPN and the schools could easily buy back the T3 held by lesser players.

As we move into a streaming world it will take even more material to fill the niche and the normal channels will still take what is needed to fill the various time slots.

With the potential of a Facebook or Amazon getting into the mix rights are going to go higher. Whatever the price that FOX or ESPN could pay early to access the rights would be money well spent. It is possible that between FOX and ESPN that the SEC / ACC / B1G / and PAC could be involved in a division of the Big 12 or any 3 or any 2 of them for that matter.

If the PACN sold its rights to either FOX or ESPN for carriage advantages and reformatting it is still possible for ESPN and FOX to work things to their advantage. Any of the other networks that howled would be howling because they simply because every advantage had been taken. But that's not illegal. The parties under a present contract have the right to renegotiate.

(04-15-2018 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Wedge, if the whole Big 12 could be promised new P5 homes the division of the schools could be handled between FOX and ESPN and the whole conference closed and moved without leaks until the paper work was signed.

I can't see that happening.

With the possible exception of getting another conference to invite Oklahoma State along with Oklahoma, all of the other P5 conferences will accept tag-alongs only if they're also getting the Longhorns. None of these conferences is going to volunteer to serve as an orphanage while other P5 conferences snap up UT and OU.

(04-15-2018 11:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Wedge, if the whole Big 12 could be promised new P5 homes the division of the schools could be handled between FOX and ESPN and the whole conference closed and moved without leaks until the paper work was signed.

I can't see that happening.

With the possible exception of getting another conference to invite Oklahoma State along with Oklahoma, all of the other P5 conferences will accept tag-alongs only if they're also getting the Longhorns. None of these conferences is going to volunteer to serve as an orphanage while other P5 conferences snap up UT and OU.

Correct, which is why JR has dreamed up this scenario.

OU + OSU, along with Kansas and Texas Tech --> SEC. That gives the SEC value in OU, some value in Kansas, and more saturation of Texas (A&M is in the extreme East of the state). The 5th team could be negotiable, IMO.

Meanwhile, if Texas agreed to join the ACC, that conference would be happy to take 4 more - especially if one of them was WVU.

Optimal? No, but it has the advantages of being both GUARANTEED and IMMEDIATE. Waiting for the GoR is risky for all parties.

(04-16-2018 04:07 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 11:48 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Wedge, if the whole Big 12 could be promised new P5 homes the division of the schools could be handled between FOX and ESPN and the whole conference closed and moved without leaks until the paper work was signed.

I can't see that happening.

With the possible exception of getting another conference to invite Oklahoma State along with Oklahoma, all of the other P5 conferences will accept tag-alongs only if they're also getting the Longhorns. None of these conferences is going to volunteer to serve as an orphanage while other P5 conferences snap up UT and OU.

Correct, which is why JR has dreamed up this scenario.

OU + OSU, along with Kansas and Texas Tech --> SEC. That gives the SEC value in OU, some value in Kansas, and more saturation of Texas (A&M is in the extreme East of the state). The 5th team could be negotiable, IMO.

Meanwhile, if Texas agreed to join the ACC, that conference would be happy to take 4 more - especially if one of them was WVU.

Optimal? No, but it has the advantages of being both GUARANTEED and IMMEDIATE. Waiting for the GoR is risky for all parties.

The B1G buys the PACN and adds Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (all of which will be assigned a conference at a later date).
The SEC/ACC add Texas, Tech, Baylor, West Virginia and TCU.
And now we learn why the SEC invited Missouri in the first place. Yep! traded to the PAC/B1G for network access/licensing.
Then what do you have?
32 teams for the bad guys, and 32 teams for the good guys (plus Notre Dame)

(04-16-2018 04:35 AM)XLance Wrote:  The B1G buys the PACN and adds Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (all of which will be assigned a conference at a later date).
The SEC/ACC add Texas, Tech, Baylor, West Virginia and TCU.
And now we learn why the SEC invited Missouri in the first place. Yep! traded to the PAC/B1G for network access/licensing.
Then what do you have?
32 teams for the bad guys, and 32 teams for the good guys (plus Notre Dame)

I see...

I believe true conference stability can be measured by what appears in the media and what doesn't.

For example The ACC GOR was signed and announced before it was reported in the media. Swofford and his team have been artful in their use of the media with how and when they release information.

It was almost laughable that sources in Virginia were being quoted as ready to accept an offer to jump to The Big Ten and UVa had already signed The ACC Grant of Rights. This wasn't a expansion loon from some WVU board or parts unknown Minnesota tweeting the imminent move of Virginia but a network affiliate.

JR is correct. If a true plan is in place, and everyone is on the same page, moves will be agreed upon, approved and contracts signed before being announced.

For all we know some of the preliminary work is being done now.
CJ

(04-15-2018 09:24 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If it's just one school making a move then it might be kept quiet until the very last minute, like Maryland's move to the Big Ten. If you're talking about something affecting a large number of schools, that's too many mouths to keep shut for very long. Several schools on the move, or an entire conference breaking up and moving on? Not likely to keep that completely quiet.

Plus, the networks don't want the potential legal liability. They aren't going to get that deep in. They still want the conference to run the show.

There was plenty of talk in the early 90s. Lots of speculation. Just without the internet, it wasn't out there every day.

And the logical conference to split would be the ACC as they are really two nearly full conferences put together from very different regions of the country (NE and SE). But they have GORs to 2036.

What will drive realignment will be what is profitable. Conference networks drove the last round. The expansions based on that are not necessarily logical anymore.

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC... But they have GORs to 2036.

...and a license to hunt!

(04-16-2018 09:40 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC... But they have GORs to 2036.

...and a license to hunt!

Which should scare the crap out of you because when Swofford has gone hunting he's typically looked like this:



and been about as successful.

(04-16-2018 10:27 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 09:40 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC... But they have GORs to 2036.

...and a license to hunt!

Which should scare the crap out of you because when Swofford has gone hunting he's typically looked like this:



and been about as successful.

I think Swofford has done a good job. It's easy to be Delany, or Slive when he was the SEC commissioner; that's like sitting at a poker table with a hand of aces over kings. Of course you look like a good poker player when you always have hands like that. Swofford has sat down at the table with just a pair of fours in his hand and done pretty well considering that. It's not like Alabama or Ohio State was ever going to join the ACC.

(04-16-2018 10:45 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 10:27 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 09:40 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC... But they have GORs to 2036.

...and a license to hunt!

Which should scare the crap out of you because when Swofford has gone hunting he's typically looked like this:



and been about as successful.

I think Swofford has done a good job. It's easy to be Delany, or Slive when he was the SEC commissioner; that's like sitting at a poker table with a hand of aces over kings. Of course you look like a good poker player when you always have hands like that. Swofford has sat down at the table with just a pair of fours in his hand and done pretty well considering that. It's not like Alabama or Ohio State was ever going to join the ACC.

Easy for you to say. Being the only game in town on the left coast makes it to where you aren't competing on a daily basis with two 800lb gorillas. Swofford made it where we were trying to do that with one hand tied behind out back so his son could keep his job, and when time came to add value we added two schools with low ceilings and the unwanted sports programs of another. It was only after a revolt that any real athletic value was added to this conference.

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC as they are really two nearly full conferences put together from very different regions of the country (NE and SE). But they have GORs to 2036.

What will drive realignment will be what is profitable. Conference networks drove the last round. The expansions based on that are not necessarily logical anymore.

Now that's what it used to be. The only reason the Big 10 would take any of the ACC North schools (other than N.D.) would be for markets.

For conferences the name of the game moving forward will be content. For Carriers the name of the game moving forward will be content for the tube, quantity for the stream.

They aren't going to want to leave the Quantity part to the Conferences. They will deliver the Content to the networks in exchange for the quantity.

About 2 years ago Slive said he thought that the conferences could grow very very large. It could be that to secure top brands an entourage will be taken, but more for the control of a region in order to sell regional packages of games, and to have the quantity necessary to fill all TV slots with content and have the quantity left over for streaming services.

So the business agenda here Bullet is to control regional markets so that ad rates are maximized there because the advertiser has to go through a particular carrier in order to reach that region, and all fans have access to all games via the TV and has the need to add the ESPN Plus kinds of platforms to make sure they can watch all games if they so choose. And I'm betting each school is going to have games on that plus network so that the cost of 5.99 a month in season doesn't amount to the cost of a single ticket to attend.

By streaming ESPN might well command the usual $8 a month from the consumer for TV delivery and pick up an additional $18 for the season for the Plus service which more than covers the cord cutting costs of those who don't watch sports.

So sewing up the content will be the goal of ESPN and possibly FOX and doing it before deeper pockets bid will be an essential step in that direction.

I think they will in part abandon going after T1 rights for Pro Sports and will concentrate on the much more loyal clientele, college fans.

(04-16-2018 10:54 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 10:45 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 10:27 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 09:40 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 08:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  And the logical conference to split would be the ACC... But they have GORs to 2036.

...and a license to hunt!

Which should scare the crap out of you because when Swofford has gone hunting he's typically looked like this:



and been about as successful.

I think Swofford has done a good job. It's easy to be Delany, or Slive when he was the SEC commissioner; that's like sitting at a poker table with a hand of aces over kings. Of course you look like a good poker player when you always have hands like that. Swofford has sat down at the table with just a pair of fours in his hand and done pretty well considering that. It's not like Alabama or Ohio State was ever going to join the ACC.

Easy for you to say. Being the only game in town on the left coast makes it to where you aren't competing on a daily basis with two 800lb gorillas. Swofford made it where we were trying to do that with one hand tied behind out back so his son could keep his job, and when time came to add value we added two schools with low ceilings and the unwanted sports programs of another. It was only after a revolt that any real athletic value was added to this conference.

Hey, if you like Larry Scott better, I'd be happy to trade. Hope you'll be happy with a commissioner who pays his underlings twice what they're worth, rents a ton of the most expensive real estate on the west coast at the conference's expense, and botches negotiations with a carrier that has a third of the TV market in your largest state while he preens himself at overseas photo ops.