(04-12-2018 08:54 PM)bullet Wrote: Its been obvious the conference network model, which drove the last round of realignment, is dying. But it seemed likely to peter out slowly. This could indicate it could happen much more quickly than I expected.
2020s may be time to think alliances instead of more expansion.
If it is dying, then the SEC is a huge winner by holding no equity/risk and handing everything over to a deep pocket, while the Pac-12 has made a big mistake.
I suspect that evolving is more accurate than dying.
What seems to be happening is a three path system.
Path one will be bundles. Bundles are going to stick around because consumers like them (to some degree). A collection of general interest channels (ie. TBS, TNT, USA, ESPN, Discovery, AMC, etc,) that offer content appealing to a broad range of tastes. Consumers may want to provide their own infrastructure (Sling, YouTube TV, etc.) or pay the bundler for infrastructure (cable and satellite).
Path two will be niche programming you pay a subscription for like HBO, WWE, ESPN+, MLB.tv and probably in the future conference networks.
Path three will be what I call branded bundlers. Netflix, Amazon, CBS All-Access, That offer a wide selection of programming like a bundler but all done as a single brand.
The thing about branded bundlers is they have expanded into add-ons. Subscribe to Amazon or Hulu and for an added fee add HBO or Showtime.
I think ESPN is headed that direction slowly with ESPN+. They already offer MLB out-of-market as an add-on and presumably will do the same with NHL. The next step will likely be local programming and conference networks. With ESPN slated to launch ACC Network and resistance apparently growing to adding regional and/or niche programming that is expensive to the basic bundle, I could see ESPN offering ACC Network to bundlers at $12 per year in market while also offering it via ESPN+ at a significantly higher price maybe $120 per year on an annual contract or $25 per month without a contract. That permits Comcast or Direct to go to consumers and say why pay that big amount ESPN wants for ACCN when you can get it included in the ___ tier.