Cyniclone
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RE: Where would you rather be?
(03-13-2018 02:19 PM)EverRespect Wrote: (03-13-2018 02:14 PM)odu09 Wrote: (03-13-2018 02:08 PM)Cyniclone Wrote: (03-13-2018 01:34 PM)EverRespect Wrote: The AAC is a long-term impossibility... at least as is. The only way waiting works is if the AAC falls apart... in other words, Cinncinati and Houston bolt to the Big 12, which would spark UConn and then Memphis to go Big East/Independent and Navy to do whatever they want. At that point, the AAC, CUSA, MAC and Sunbelt are all pretty much equal suck and three new conferences can emerge with Southern (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi), Western (Texas, OK, Louisiana, Arkansas), and Mid Atlantic (VA, WV, TN, KY, NC, SC, PA) schools. That would leave us with Temple, Coastal, App State, ECU, UNC-C, JMU, Liberty, Marshall, MTSU, WKU. It isn't the A10, but at least 7 out of the 10 would be relatively reachable away games and the Richmond Coliseum would be a logical tournament host. This is a good 10 years down the road and things will have to fall perfectly in place. I don't have the patience and Lil' Woody doesn't have the acumen to plot that course.
Best-case AAC scenario for ODU is if they lose one school, say Cincinnati, to the Big 12 (which also adds a MWC school like Colorado State to get to 12). The AAC isn't incentivized to get back to 12 schools, and if they lost two then they'd stay at 10. But if they lose one or three, then they need to get back at least to an even number. ODU replaces Cincinnati, everything else stays the same—that's the most-ideal scenario, however implausible it may be.
But even a compromised AAC would be a step up. If they lost Cincy, Houston and UConn to the Big 12 and Big East, the other schools would still collectively be stronger than any of them would be independently. It's one thing to trade a CUSA and Sun Belt schedule for independence, but a rump AAC schedule would still be more attractive than a independent one, especially if they backfill successfully.
Why would AAC add us over a team who has consistently proven to compete at a higher level, such as Middle Tennessee? Are we really the top option? A lot has to fall into place for us to move up
Not to mention, if Cincy leaves, what is to keep UConn and Memphis sticking around? They might as well go to the Big East and go indy for football. Not like Memphis has any rivalries other than Cincy and UConn is a basketball school. The Big East only has 10 teams. They can easily accomodate. They may even be willing to take Wichita State as well.
Where's Memphis going to go? The only, repeat, only AAC school that the Big East is likely to consider is UConn because of the long history they have with the BE and its member institutions. Memphis doesn't have that, plus they'd be another Midwestern school which would wrench the center of the conference further from its traditional base of power. Plus they'd still keep a longing eye to the Big 12 or any all-sports conference, unless you think they'd downgrade or drop football, which is pretty much not going to happen.
The Big East appears happy with a 10-team conference that can accommodate a double round-robin. If they expand, they're a lot more likely to take Dayton and/or St. Louis, which are much more institutionally congruent with the membership, geographic issues aside (in other words, they're a lot more likely to take a Midwest Catholic school than a Midwest large public institution with FBS football).
Honestly, I think they'd take VCU before Memphis because at least VCU is on the 95 corridor and they'll probably never have football. And the Big East isn't taking VCU.
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