(03-07-2018 11:50 AM)JRsec Wrote:  X, the SEC schools averaged 127 million in gross total revenue last year. The ACC averaged 92 million. No school in the SEC will be leaving the SEC for the ACC. If not for the GOR the movement of schools from the ACC to the SEC would be extremely likely.

That's just a fact of life. You think as though these moves could happen in a vacuum where all things other would be equal. They are not. Not the gate, not the concessions, not the branding, not the mix of sports, not the venues, and certainly not the revenue.

JR the world is changing.
As revenues and attendance continue to slide we will increasingly follow the directions of the hand that feeds us and continue to make moves that ESPN suggests and hope they are also in our best interests too.
Actually you should be overjoyed that the ACC would even consider Vanderbilt (a school that didn't fit a single criteria set forth by Mr. SEC in it's attempt to define the perfect SEC school) and South Carolina (almost 30 years in the league, two HOF coaches, and still can't find another school in the SEC that gets excited when the chickens come to town).
If both conferences end up having to divide the Big 12, it makes no sense what so ever for any team to fly over the entirety of another conference just to get to a women's soccer game. It's is not fair to the fans, you know that and so do the networks. At some point we have to give back to the fans so they won't find something else to do. And since when does giving up South Carolina and Vanderbilt and getting Texas and Oklahoma in return look like a bad deal for the SEC?
You can spout you averages all you want but that gap is created as a result of stadium size and concession prices more than media rights.
Never say never, JR, it just might come back to bite you in the rear.

(03-07-2018 01:12 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2018 11:50 AM)JRsec Wrote:  X, the SEC schools averaged 127 million in gross total revenue last year. The ACC averaged 92 million. No school in the SEC will be leaving the SEC for the ACC. If not for the GOR the movement of schools from the ACC to the SEC would be extremely likely.

That's just a fact of life. You think as though these moves could happen in a vacuum where all things other would be equal. They are not. Not the gate, not the concessions, not the branding, not the mix of sports, not the venues, and certainly not the revenue.

JR the world is changing.
As revenues and attendance continue to slide we will increasingly follow the directions of the hand that feeds us and continue to make moves that ESPN suggests and hope they are also in our best interests too.
Actually you should be overjoyed that the ACC would even consider Vanderbilt (a school that didn't fit a single criteria set forth by Mr. SEC in it's attempt to define the perfect SEC school) and South Carolina (almost 30 years in the league, two HOF coaches, and still can't find another school in the SEC that gets excited when the chickens come to town).
If both conferences end up having to divide the Big 12, it makes no sense what so ever for any team to fly over the entirety of another conference just to get to a women's soccer game. It's is not fair to the fans, you know that and so do the networks. At some point we have to give back to the fans so they won't find something else to do. And since when does giving up South Carolina and Vanderbilt and getting Texas and Oklahoma in return look like a bad deal for the SEC?
You can spout you averages all you want but that gap is created as a result of stadium size and concession prices more than media rights.
Never say never, JR, it just might come back to bite you in the rear.

X, the schools in question have to want to move. If they don't then nothing happens. And they won't have an incentive to move until the ACC is at least competitively valued in terms of revenue.

To address the latter is to address the former. Until then nothing between the two is truly workable except perhaps at some point a merger of part of the ACC with the SEC.

In your original proposal you spoke of letting Syracuse and B.C. go to the Big 10. Add Pitt and N.D. to that and then the partial merger is workable. The most economical of all ideas is for UVa, Va Tech, UNC, Duke, N.C. State, Clemson, F.S.U., Ga Tech, and Miami to merge with the SEC and for the new conference to offer Texas, and if they reject take T.C.U..

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Those two would form the Eastern Conference's divisions.

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, L.S.U., Miami, Missouri, Texas or T.C.U., Texas A&M

Those two would form the Western Conference's divisions.

Each school would play 5 divisional games and 1 rotating game with each of the other 3 divisions and would have 2 permanent rivals.

That would cover most of the bases and would leave 2 OOC games.

It is the leverage of those combined brands and their brand values for various sports that would warrant a network paying them equally.

And should we ever reach a day when smaller is better, those two could be separated in whole if need be.

If we could swing Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State out of the Big 12 then that would more or less be ideal for us.

They could rebuild the Big 12 with a few of the AAC's top schools and have a respectable league. It wouldn't be worth huge money, but I think there's value in maintaining a 5th Power league for the time being.

When the 2030s come around then maybe we can see the seismic shift.

(03-07-2018 06:13 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If we could swing Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State out of the Big 12 then that would more or less be ideal for us.

They could rebuild the Big 12 with a few of the AAC's top schools and have a respectable league. It wouldn't be worth huge money, but I think there's value in maintaining a 5th Power league for the time being.

When the 2030s come around then maybe we can see the seismic shift.

Except it may not happen that way. It could, but I think the odds are that the Big 12 will extend the GOR until 2032-34 range and wait to see what happens with the ACCN. Face it, if the ACCN doesn't pan out as expected then 2033-5 will be an interesting couple of years.

Barry Tramel said the other day that if OU didn't get a Big 10 invite that nothing was likely to happen. Their new president when named could be tell. If it's a person loyal to the Regents and who has ties locally then the Big 12 could remain if Okie St. isn't taken care of.

But to take a sober look at the situation there is a great chance that the Big 10 isn't interested in Oklahoma at all. They aren't AAU and aren't from a large market. And what does Kansas give the Big 10??? Most of their markets are already heavily penetrated by the Big 10 and they have lousy football attendance for a conference that shares some gate revenue.

Personally I don't think the Big 10 will take either OU or KU. They would take either of them to get Texas, but Texas isn't heading North so they can alienate their fans and turn the state over to the Aggies and the SEC.

So, if the Big 10 doesn't invite Oklahoma, the SEC probably won't be taking O.S.U. to get them. We could easily see an extension of the current GOR until close to the time that of the ACC expires.

Furthermore, by 2024 the ACCN will have had 5 years to establish its earning potential. If it under performs then waiting a decade to pick off more valuable Eastern markets will still be on the Big 10 agenda, and along with it an opportunity for the SEC to consolidate the deep South with brands and new markets is there as well.

And if Texas and Oklahoma want to keep their familiar digs and expand their markets the opportunity would be there for that as well.

Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame and North Carolina to the B1G.
Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson and Florida State to the SEC.
Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Miami to the Big 12 along with Cincinnati and Colorado State.

Now you have 3 solid conferences East of the Rockies (CSU excepted) and the PAC to deliver the rest.

Remember that right now the SEC averages 127 million in total revenue per school, the Big 10 averages 114 million, the Big 12 averages 107 million, and the PAC averages 97 million while the ACC averages 92 million.

Next year the Big 10's revenue jumps to 119 million when the new TV contract kicks in. The SEC's will be around 5 million more so both outpace the ACC by another 5 million. That means the ACC's gap with the SEC will be 40 million and their gap with the Big 10 will be 27 million. That gap goes up again in 2023 when the SEC renews its T1 contract with CBS or a new bidder. By the time that happens we will already have escalated to over 50 million in TV revenue.

Even if the ACCN closes the gap to 20 million with the SEC and 7 million with the Big 10 it's going to be hard for them to hold it together.

They are the only P5 to give partial membership for 1 of the big 3 sports. They are dead last in attendance, venue size, all forms of revenue, and will be either 4th or 5th in % of actual viewers to total possible viewers.

When Maryland left and N.D. agreed to the partial membership it shored up their hemorrhage. And it temporarily shifted the perception of vulnerability back onto the Big 12.

However the top 2 products in the Big 12 (UT and OU) are worth a combined 2.25 billion in economic impact value. That's about as much as the entire ACC is worth 2.5 billion (minus N.D. because they aren't football members). So there is no instability in the Big 12 until either Texas or Oklahoma decides to leave. Then there will be pandemonium.

But with the ACC if Clemson or F.S.U. decides to leave N.D. won't be far behind. If one of the core schools leaves, like Maryland did, maybe Virginia, the run will be on.

Now I'm not saying that UNC and Duke head to the Big 10, but I laid out the most frequently cited case just to not argue about who goes where. My point being it would take very little for the SEC and Big 10 to agree to take 4 different schools each, and take the best 8 in the process. So the pickings left for the Big 12 can be turned into a helluva a nice conference:

Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

That's the Old Big 8 schools with CSU taking Colorado's place and minus Nebraska and Missouri.

Baylor, Georgia, Tech, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech

Here the outliers are in major transportation hubs where the direct flights between Miami, Dallas and Atlanta are very reasonably priced. The rest are Texas schools. It links UT to the major recruiting states in the Southeast.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Those are large markets with familiar foes for the Northeast football fans.

It's spread out but would create a demand for a conference network to a great many people.

So I'm not quite ready to write the Big 12 off. If OU and UT want to stick together they will survive.

(03-07-2018 09:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2018 06:13 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  If we could swing Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State out of the Big 12 then that would more or less be ideal for us.

They could rebuild the Big 12 with a few of the AAC's top schools and have a respectable league. It wouldn't be worth huge money, but I think there's value in maintaining a 5th Power league for the time being.

When the 2030s come around then maybe we can see the seismic shift.

Except it may not happen that way. It could, but I think the odds are that the Big 12 will extend the GOR until 2032-34 range and wait to see what happens with the ACCN. Face it, if the ACCN doesn't pan out as expected then 2033-5 will be an interesting couple of years.

Barry Tramel said the other day that if OU didn't get a Big 10 invite that nothing was likely to happen. Their new president when named could be tell. If it's a person loyal to the Regents and who has ties locally then the Big 12 could remain if Okie St. isn't taken care of.

But to take a sober look at the situation there is a great chance that the Big 10 isn't interested in Oklahoma at all. They aren't AAU and aren't from a large market. And what does Kansas give the Big 10??? Most of their markets are already heavily penetrated by the Big 10 and they have lousy football attendance for a conference that shares some gate revenue.

Personally I don't think the Big 10 will take either OU or KU. They would take either of them to get Texas, but Texas isn't heading North so they can alienate their fans and turn the state over to the Aggies and the SEC.

So, if the Big 10 doesn't invite Oklahoma, the SEC probably won't be taking O.S.U. to get them. We could easily see an extension of the current GOR until close to the time that of the ACC expires.

If they extend the GOR then I think they'd have to get something in return.

A network...a lot of extra cash...something.

Either that or the local politics would have to be so muddied that UT and OU moving by themselves simply wouldn't be an option.

If the ACC came apart, the B1G wouldn't be adding Duke and Notre Dame along with Carolina and UVa, as those two could anchor an all private league that would probably include Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College and Navy.
The B1G expansion would not only target UVa and Carolina but would include Georgia Tech and Florida.
The SEC after losing Florida would have to add Miami to the list that included Florida State, Clemson, NC State and Va. Tech.. If Miami opted to go with Notre Dame and Duke, the SEC would be forced to choose between UCF and USF to maintain their presence in Florida.

(03-08-2018 05:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  If the ACC came apart, the B1G wouldn't be adding Duke and Notre Dame along with Carolina and UVa, as those two could anchor an all private league that would probably include Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College and Navy.
The B1G expansion would not only target UVa and Carolina but would include Georgia Tech and Florida.
The SEC after losing Florida would have to add Miami to the list that included Florida State, Clemson, NC State and Va. Tech.. If Miami opted to go with Notre Dame and Duke, the SEC would be forced to choose between UCF and USF to maintain their presence in Florida.

X, Florida isn't going anywhere, especially someplace the have to play so far from home. Hell, they don't even like having to travel to Kentucky.

(03-08-2018 08:42 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 05:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  If the ACC came apart, the B1G wouldn't be adding Duke and Notre Dame along with Carolina and UVa, as those two could anchor an all private league that would probably include Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College and Navy.
The B1G expansion would not only target UVa and Carolina but would include Georgia Tech and Florida.
The SEC after losing Florida would have to add Miami to the list that included Florida State, Clemson, NC State and Va. Tech.. If Miami opted to go with Notre Dame and Duke, the SEC would be forced to choose between UCF and USF to maintain their presence in Florida.

X, Florida isn't going anywhere, especially someplace the have to play so far from home. Hell, they don't even like having to travel to Kentucky.

JR the B1G consistently outdraws the SEC for viewers and Florida not only fits the B1G University profile (unlike Carolina and UVa) but has a built in audience of folks that have migrated to Florida from B1G states.
Put the Gators in a division with Georgia Tech, Carolina, Maryland and the Cavaliers and they will never know they left home.
Omni had some broadcast data several years ago showing Penn State outdrawing not only Florida but Florida State in the Orlando area's television ratings.
Add the states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia to the BTN and you have added 60-65 million people plus HUGE dollars.

(03-08-2018 08:53 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 08:42 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 05:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  If the ACC came apart, the B1G wouldn't be adding Duke and Notre Dame along with Carolina and UVa, as those two could anchor an all private league that would probably include Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College and Navy.
The B1G expansion would not only target UVa and Carolina but would include Georgia Tech and Florida.
The SEC after losing Florida would have to add Miami to the list that included Florida State, Clemson, NC State and Va. Tech.. If Miami opted to go with Notre Dame and Duke, the SEC would be forced to choose between UCF and USF to maintain their presence in Florida.

X, Florida isn't going anywhere, especially someplace the have to play so far from home. Hell, they don't even like having to travel to Kentucky.

JR the B1G consistently outdraws the SEC for viewers and Florida not only fits the B1G University profile (unlike Carolina and UVa) but has a built in audience of folks that have migrated to Florida from B1G states.
Put the Gators in a division with Georgia Tech, Carolina, Maryland and the Cavaliers and they will never know they left home.
Omni had some broadcast data several years ago showing Penn State outdrawing not only Florida but Florida State in the Orlando area's television ratings.
Add the states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia to the BTN and you have added 60-65 million people plus HUGE dollars.

Well they were never under a GOR until the SECN was formed and the one they are under now is with the network and they are still in the SEC.

As for the B1G consistently outdraws the SEC that's pure ACC math and just as fictitious as the numbers your fan boys post after setting whacko parameters such as time slot, day, and region to make claims. The SEC on CBS still outdrew the other telecasts last year. The Big 10 had a handful of national game draws, but even on a per game basis the SEC had more better. But when it comes to advertising dollars spent that's where the number of actual viewers are compared to the total possible viewers to determine a % which in turn helps to determine rates. Nobody does better than the SEC and it's not even close. And nobody does worse than the ACC but it is nip and tuck with the PAC for last.

And I believe it is mostly internet hooey that would have the Big 10 create a peninsula for itself by heading down the Chisholm Trail or the Atlantic Coast. They will consolidate the Northeast and probably will try to get into Virginia and North Carolina.

The SEC will consolidate the Southeast and try to get into Dallas.

Neither wants to lose their brand integrity. And neither want too much dilution. But both want a solid footprint.

General thoughts: is a school more like the big 10 or the SEC? Not researched just my own opinion but should spark discussion:

(Not necessarily expansion candidates, but conference fit does impact candidacy)

Big 12:
Texas Tech/TCU/Baylor all SEC
Ok St. - SEC
Kansas State: SEC
Kansas: Big 10
Iowa State: split (SEC type fan base, AAU school, etc)
West VA: SEC
Texas: split (fits well in SEC but culture may be different)
OK: SEC but Big 10 might consider

ACC:
Boston College/Syracuse/ND- Big 10
Pitt - Big 10 but could fit with SEC too
UNC/Duke/UVA - Big 10 but SEC might want UNC and consider Duke to get them
VT- split, culturally like SEC but would fit in well with schools like Purdue too
Wake- unknown?
Miami - Split (?)
FSU - SEC
NC State - split (big city, etc. More like Big 10, but would fit in SEC)
Clemson: SEC
Georgia Tech: split (similar to VT, but with history with the SEC and even better academic fit in the Big 10)
Louisville: SEC

(03-08-2018 10:11 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  General thoughts: is a school more like the big 10 or the SEC? Not researched just my own opinion but should spark discussion:

(Not necessarily expansion candidates, but conference fit does impact candidacy)

Big 12:
Texas Tech/TCU/Baylor all SEC
Ok St. - SEC
Kansas State: SEC
Kansas: Big 10
Iowa State: split (SEC type fan base, AAU school, etc)
West VA: SEC
Texas: split (fits well in SEC but culture may be different)
OK: SEC but Big 10 might consider

ACC:
Boston College/Syracuse/ND- Big 10
Pitt - Big 10 but could fit with SEC too
UNC/Duke/UVA - Big 10 but SEC might want UNC and consider Duke to get them
VT- split, culturally like SEC but would fit in well with schools like Purdue too
Wake- unknown?
Miami - Split (?)
FSU - SEC
NC State - split (big city, etc. More like Big 10, but would fit in SEC)
Clemson: SEC
Georgia Tech: split (similar to VT, but with history with the SEC and even better academic fit in the Big 10)
Louisville: SEC

The Big 10 looks for exactly the same things the SEC does with one exception. Every member of the Big 10 is, or has been, a member of the AAU. Nebraska is the only one who is a current Big 10 member and is not in the AAU.

But what we both look for are large state schools, preferably flagship schools. But large state #2 schools, especially if they have branding like Florida State, Texas A&M (which is also considered a flagship school in Texas) are candidates as well.

So if you look at the ACC for instance should N.C. State make it into the AAU they actually fit the Big 10 profile better than UNC, although certainly UNC would be acceptable to the Big 10 simply on academics, as would Virginia. But, Virginia and UNC, and Georgia Tech as well, would be atypical Big 10 schools because they are smallish for state schools in terms of enrollment and function more like private schools with regards to admission standards.

The Big 10 would only be interested in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big 12. And even then they would have less interest in Kansas. Kansas doesn't help improve Big 10 football and Big 10 basketball doesn't need a the boost. And the Big 10 already penetrates most of the major market areas in Kansas.

They might even take a pass on Oklahoma, but if OU was a way to reach Texas they'd probably take them.

Virginia Tech and N.C. State are the two most Big 10 like ACC schools. The prestige of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech would get them a look. Duke is iffier. They certainly have the academics the Big 10 covets, but they are small and private. They would take them to get North Carolina, but I'm not sure that would be their preference. It's the same reason I don't ever see them wanting Miami.

Now if you look at who the SEC might take you could circle Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Jayhawks but seriously they are not a cultural fit for the SEC and we officially have 2 hard standards for considering a school for membership.

1. Do they add to everyone's bottom line.
2. Are they a brand that enhances the SEC's cultural identity.

After that we would weigh academics, overall sports fit, average attendance, size and quality of venues, ease of access (hurts WVU and TTU), and how they travel to name most but not all of the factors.

Now like the Big 10 we might consider Kansas as a travel companion to Texas or Oklahoma. Or we might consider another school that would not get in on their own steam, like Oklahoma State, but the only primary objectives there would be Texas and Oklahoma.

From the ACC our list of acceptable additions in the order of how I might think they would be prioritized would be: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Clemson, Duke, Miami and I don't see us taking any who are not listed above unless taking Georgia Tech was seen as defensive territorial move to keep a strong conference out of Atlanta. I don't see Notre Dame ever joining the SEC so I didn't list them, but hypothetically they would be an interesting test of our cultural identity standard as they would add value to everyone's bottom line.

But let's sum it up this way. If by some stroke of providence the SEC landed just Texas and Oklahoma as a pair the added value of those two combined would end realignment for the SEC. Why? Because there are no other possible additions that could still add to our bottom line, except for possibly Notre Dame and Ohio State.

So if the SEC is to stop at 16 it will be with Texas and Oklahoma. If the ACC is breached by the Big 10 for a Virginia and North Carolina school, I think the Big 10 goes after N.D. again and looks either Duke, Syracuse, or Boston College for the 4th. Syracuse has been AAU before and Boston College might provide N.D. with a good travel partner and would give the Big 10 a premier hockey school with a huge New England market.

I think if the ACC was raided the SEC would be defensive and would try to lock down a presence in Virginia and North Carolina as well, and would protect Deep South rivalries by taking Clemson and Florida State.

(03-08-2018 10:43 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:11 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  General thoughts: is a school more like the big 10 or the SEC? Not researched just my own opinion but should spark discussion:

(Not necessarily expansion candidates, but conference fit does impact candidacy)

Big 12:
Texas Tech/TCU/Baylor all SEC
Ok St. - SEC
Kansas State: SEC
Kansas: Big 10
Iowa State: split (SEC type fan base, AAU school, etc)
West VA: SEC
Texas: split (fits well in SEC but culture may be different)
OK: SEC but Big 10 might consider

ACC:
Boston College/Syracuse/ND- Big 10
Pitt - Big 10 but could fit with SEC too
UNC/Duke/UVA - Big 10 but SEC might want UNC and consider Duke to get them
VT- split, culturally like SEC but would fit in well with schools like Purdue too
Wake- unknown?
Miami - Split (?)
FSU - SEC
NC State - split (big city, etc. More like Big 10, but would fit in SEC)
Clemson: SEC
Georgia Tech: split (similar to VT, but with history with the SEC and even better academic fit in the Big 10)
Louisville: SEC

The Big 10 looks for exactly the same things the SEC does with one exception. Every member of the Big 10 is, or has been, a member of the AAU. Nebraska is the only one who is a current Big 10 member and is not in the AAU.

But what we both look for are large state schools, preferably flagship schools. But large state #2 schools, especially if they have branding like Florida State, Texas A&M (which is also considered a flagship school in Texas) are candidates as well.

So if you look at the ACC for instance should N.C. State make it into the AAU they actually fit the Big 10 profile better than UNC, although certainly UNC would be acceptable to the Big 10 simply on academics, as would Virginia. But, Virginia and UNC, and Georgia Tech as well, would be atypical Big 10 schools because they are smallish for state schools in terms of enrollment and function more like private schools with regards to admission standards.

The Big 10 would only be interested in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big 12. And even then they would have less interest in Kansas. Kansas doesn't help improve Big 10 football and Big 10 basketball doesn't need a the boost. And the Big 10 already penetrates most of the major market areas in Kansas.

They might even take a pass on Oklahoma, but if OU was a way to reach Texas they'd probably take them.

Virginia Tech and N.C. State are the two most Big 10 like ACC schools. The prestige of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech would get them a look. Duke is iffier. They certainly have the academics the Big 10 covets, but they are small and private. They would take them to get North Carolina, but I'm not sure that would be their preference. It's the same reason I don't ever see them wanting Miami.

Now if you look at who the SEC might take you could circle Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Jayhawks but seriously they are not a cultural fit for the SEC and we officially have 2 hard standards for considering a school for membership.

1. Do they add to everyone's bottom line.
2. Are they a brand that enhances the SEC's cultural identity.

After that we would weigh academics, overall sports fit, average attendance, size and quality of venues, ease of access (hurts WVU and TTU), and how they travel to name most but not all of the factors.

Now like the Big 10 we might consider Kansas as a travel companion to Texas or Oklahoma. Or we might consider another school that would not get in on their own steam, like Oklahoma State, but the only primary objectives there would be Texas and Oklahoma.

From the ACC our list of acceptable additions in the order of how I might think they would be prioritized would be: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Clemson, Duke, Miami and I don't see us taking any who are not listed above unless taking Georgia Tech was seen as defensive territorial move to keep a strong conference out of Atlanta. I don't see Notre Dame ever joining the SEC so I didn't list them, but hypothetically they would be an interesting test of our cultural identity standard as they would add value to everyone's bottom line.

But let's sum it up this way. If by some stroke of providence the SEC landed just Texas and Oklahoma as a pair the added value of those two combined would end realignment for the SEC. Why? Because there are no other possible additions that could still add to our bottom line, except for possibly Notre Dame and Ohio State.

So if the SEC is to stop at 16 it will be with Texas and Oklahoma. If the ACC is breached by the Big 10 for a Virginia and North Carolina school, I think the Big 10 goes after N.D. again and looks either Duke, Syracuse, or Boston College for the 4th. Syracuse has been AAU before and Boston College might provide N.D. with a good travel partner and would give the Big 10 a premier hockey school with a huge New England market.

I think if the ACC was raided the SEC would be defensive and would try to lock down a presence in Virginia and North Carolina as well, and would protect Deep South rivalries by taking Clemson and Florida State.

Interesting JR. Using your information as a scenario basis:

B1G goes to 16 with NC State and VT

Sec goes to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma (if Texas agrees to join the SEC)

ACC stays at 12 teams by promoting Notre Dame to full time

PAC stays the same

A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

(03-08-2018 02:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:43 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:11 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  General thoughts: is a school more like the big 10 or the SEC? Not researched just my own opinion but should spark discussion:

(Not necessarily expansion candidates, but conference fit does impact candidacy)

Big 12:
Texas Tech/TCU/Baylor all SEC
Ok St. - SEC
Kansas State: SEC
Kansas: Big 10
Iowa State: split (SEC type fan base, AAU school, etc)
West VA: SEC
Texas: split (fits well in SEC but culture may be different)
OK: SEC but Big 10 might consider

ACC:
Boston College/Syracuse/ND- Big 10
Pitt - Big 10 but could fit with SEC too
UNC/Duke/UVA - Big 10 but SEC might want UNC and consider Duke to get them
VT- split, culturally like SEC but would fit in well with schools like Purdue too
Wake- unknown?
Miami - Split (?)
FSU - SEC
NC State - split (big city, etc. More like Big 10, but would fit in SEC)
Clemson: SEC
Georgia Tech: split (similar to VT, but with history with the SEC and even better academic fit in the Big 10)
Louisville: SEC

The Big 10 looks for exactly the same things the SEC does with one exception. Every member of the Big 10 is, or has been, a member of the AAU. Nebraska is the only one who is a current Big 10 member and is not in the AAU.

But what we both look for are large state schools, preferably flagship schools. But large state #2 schools, especially if they have branding like Florida State, Texas A&M (which is also considered a flagship school in Texas) are candidates as well.

So if you look at the ACC for instance should N.C. State make it into the AAU they actually fit the Big 10 profile better than UNC, although certainly UNC would be acceptable to the Big 10 simply on academics, as would Virginia. But, Virginia and UNC, and Georgia Tech as well, would be atypical Big 10 schools because they are smallish for state schools in terms of enrollment and function more like private schools with regards to admission standards.

The Big 10 would only be interested in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big 12. And even then they would have less interest in Kansas. Kansas doesn't help improve Big 10 football and Big 10 basketball doesn't need a the boost. And the Big 10 already penetrates most of the major market areas in Kansas.

They might even take a pass on Oklahoma, but if OU was a way to reach Texas they'd probably take them.

Virginia Tech and N.C. State are the two most Big 10 like ACC schools. The prestige of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech would get them a look. Duke is iffier. They certainly have the academics the Big 10 covets, but they are small and private. They would take them to get North Carolina, but I'm not sure that would be their preference. It's the same reason I don't ever see them wanting Miami.

Now if you look at who the SEC might take you could circle Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Jayhawks but seriously they are not a cultural fit for the SEC and we officially have 2 hard standards for considering a school for membership.

1. Do they add to everyone's bottom line.
2. Are they a brand that enhances the SEC's cultural identity.

After that we would weigh academics, overall sports fit, average attendance, size and quality of venues, ease of access (hurts WVU and TTU), and how they travel to name most but not all of the factors.

Now like the Big 10 we might consider Kansas as a travel companion to Texas or Oklahoma. Or we might consider another school that would not get in on their own steam, like Oklahoma State, but the only primary objectives there would be Texas and Oklahoma.

From the ACC our list of acceptable additions in the order of how I might think they would be prioritized would be: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Clemson, Duke, Miami and I don't see us taking any who are not listed above unless taking Georgia Tech was seen as defensive territorial move to keep a strong conference out of Atlanta. I don't see Notre Dame ever joining the SEC so I didn't list them, but hypothetically they would be an interesting test of our cultural identity standard as they would add value to everyone's bottom line.

But let's sum it up this way. If by some stroke of providence the SEC landed just Texas and Oklahoma as a pair the added value of those two combined would end realignment for the SEC. Why? Because there are no other possible additions that could still add to our bottom line, except for possibly Notre Dame and Ohio State.

So if the SEC is to stop at 16 it will be with Texas and Oklahoma. If the ACC is breached by the Big 10 for a Virginia and North Carolina school, I think the Big 10 goes after N.D. again and looks either Duke, Syracuse, or Boston College for the 4th. Syracuse has been AAU before and Boston College might provide N.D. with a good travel partner and would give the Big 10 a premier hockey school with a huge New England market.

I think if the ACC was raided the SEC would be defensive and would try to lock down a presence in Virginia and North Carolina as well, and would protect Deep South rivalries by taking Clemson and Florida State.

Interesting JR. Using your information as a scenario basis:

B1G goes to 16 with NC State and VT

Sec goes to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma (if Texas agrees to join the SEC)

ACC stays at 12 teams by promoting Notre Dame to full time

PAC stays the same

A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

That's an interesting take. I have only 1 question. How did Louisville wind up in the new conference?

And I would amend that new conference:

Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, West Virginia

Baylor, Brigham Young/Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech

That's a much better 12.

(03-08-2018 02:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 02:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:43 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:11 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  General thoughts: is a school more like the big 10 or the SEC? Not researched just my own opinion but should spark discussion:

(Not necessarily expansion candidates, but conference fit does impact candidacy)

Big 12:
Texas Tech/TCU/Baylor all SEC
Ok St. - SEC
Kansas State: SEC
Kansas: Big 10
Iowa State: split (SEC type fan base, AAU school, etc)
West VA: SEC
Texas: split (fits well in SEC but culture may be different)
OK: SEC but Big 10 might consider

ACC:
Boston College/Syracuse/ND- Big 10
Pitt - Big 10 but could fit with SEC too
UNC/Duke/UVA - Big 10 but SEC might want UNC and consider Duke to get them
VT- split, culturally like SEC but would fit in well with schools like Purdue too
Wake- unknown?
Miami - Split (?)
FSU - SEC
NC State - split (big city, etc. More like Big 10, but would fit in SEC)
Clemson: SEC
Georgia Tech: split (similar to VT, but with history with the SEC and even better academic fit in the Big 10)
Louisville: SEC

The Big 10 looks for exactly the same things the SEC does with one exception. Every member of the Big 10 is, or has been, a member of the AAU. Nebraska is the only one who is a current Big 10 member and is not in the AAU.

But what we both look for are large state schools, preferably flagship schools. But large state #2 schools, especially if they have branding like Florida State, Texas A&M (which is also considered a flagship school in Texas) are candidates as well.

So if you look at the ACC for instance should N.C. State make it into the AAU they actually fit the Big 10 profile better than UNC, although certainly UNC would be acceptable to the Big 10 simply on academics, as would Virginia. But, Virginia and UNC, and Georgia Tech as well, would be atypical Big 10 schools because they are smallish for state schools in terms of enrollment and function more like private schools with regards to admission standards.

The Big 10 would only be interested in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas from the Big 12. And even then they would have less interest in Kansas. Kansas doesn't help improve Big 10 football and Big 10 basketball doesn't need a the boost. And the Big 10 already penetrates most of the major market areas in Kansas.

They might even take a pass on Oklahoma, but if OU was a way to reach Texas they'd probably take them.

Virginia Tech and N.C. State are the two most Big 10 like ACC schools. The prestige of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech would get them a look. Duke is iffier. They certainly have the academics the Big 10 covets, but they are small and private. They would take them to get North Carolina, but I'm not sure that would be their preference. It's the same reason I don't ever see them wanting Miami.

Now if you look at who the SEC might take you could circle Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Jayhawks but seriously they are not a cultural fit for the SEC and we officially have 2 hard standards for considering a school for membership.

1. Do they add to everyone's bottom line.
2. Are they a brand that enhances the SEC's cultural identity.

After that we would weigh academics, overall sports fit, average attendance, size and quality of venues, ease of access (hurts WVU and TTU), and how they travel to name most but not all of the factors.

Now like the Big 10 we might consider Kansas as a travel companion to Texas or Oklahoma. Or we might consider another school that would not get in on their own steam, like Oklahoma State, but the only primary objectives there would be Texas and Oklahoma.

From the ACC our list of acceptable additions in the order of how I might think they would be prioritized would be: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Clemson, Duke, Miami and I don't see us taking any who are not listed above unless taking Georgia Tech was seen as defensive territorial move to keep a strong conference out of Atlanta. I don't see Notre Dame ever joining the SEC so I didn't list them, but hypothetically they would be an interesting test of our cultural identity standard as they would add value to everyone's bottom line.

But let's sum it up this way. If by some stroke of providence the SEC landed just Texas and Oklahoma as a pair the added value of those two combined would end realignment for the SEC. Why? Because there are no other possible additions that could still add to our bottom line, except for possibly Notre Dame and Ohio State.

So if the SEC is to stop at 16 it will be with Texas and Oklahoma. If the ACC is breached by the Big 10 for a Virginia and North Carolina school, I think the Big 10 goes after N.D. again and looks either Duke, Syracuse, or Boston College for the 4th. Syracuse has been AAU before and Boston College might provide N.D. with a good travel partner and would give the Big 10 a premier hockey school with a huge New England market.

I think if the ACC was raided the SEC would be defensive and would try to lock down a presence in Virginia and North Carolina as well, and would protect Deep South rivalries by taking Clemson and Florida State.

Interesting JR. Using your information as a scenario basis:

B1G goes to 16 with NC State and VT

Sec goes to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma (if Texas agrees to join the SEC)

ACC stays at 12 teams by promoting Notre Dame to full time

PAC stays the same

A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

That's an interesting take. I have only 1 question. How did Louisville wind up in the new conference?

And I would amend that new conference:

Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, West Virginia

Baylor, Brigham Young/Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech

That's a much better 12.

I'm OK with the UConn (UConn should be in the Big East and drop their football down a level) move as a substitute for Memphis, but BYU and Colorado State are too far west. If you wanted to nix Houston (great big market) I would have to go for one of the Florida Schools, in fact UConn is too far east, I would go with both of the Florida schools. Obviously there are options to get the Big 12 to 12 if you aren't trying to satisfy Texas and Oklahoma.

Louisville moved into the new conference because I moved them out of the ACC.

This works....Louisville didn't fit.
Notre Dame, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Syracuse, UVa, Duke, Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

Quote:A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

Notre Dame, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Syracuse, UVa, Duke, Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

The questions I have is would these still have access to the CFP. Even if these do that also means that a champs-only format wouldn't be in the offing...which also means that Notre Dame wouldn't still be compelled to put their football program fully in a conference.

The "new" ACC and Big 12 would probably share a spot, the Big Ten one, the SEC one and the PAC one. Notre Dame's contract with the ACC puts the ACC in an advantaged position but a full conference schedule still means games with Michigan State, Michigan and Stanford would be increasingly rare.

The easier solution is to keep Louisville, warts and all, and convince ND to up their ACC games to six per year.

Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College
UNC, UVA, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

The "new" Big 12 could be this:

Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, West Virginia, USF, UCF, TCU, Baylor

When Notre Dame is strong then the strength of schedule for ACC teams get stronger, so any win against the Domers would give the ACC champ a leg up in the rankings, potentially putting them over the Big 12 in more years than not.

The part that I'm having trouble with is the idea of NC State and Va Tech to Big 10. Taken separately, they would be fine schools in their own right but Big Ten presidents are known to be hard arses when it comes to credentials. They've proven in the last round that sports are not the primary concern for them but the markets where State and Tech are located should compel at least a close look. Someone should remind them that Michigan State was admitted before being admitted to the AAU.

The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

(03-08-2018 06:06 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

Quote:A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

Notre Dame, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Syracuse, UVa, Duke, Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

The questions I have is would these still have access to the CFP. Even if these do that also means that a champs-only format wouldn't be in the offing...which also means that Notre Dame wouldn't still be compelled to put their football program fully in a conference.

The "new" ACC and Big 12 would probably share a spot, the Big Ten one, the SEC one and the PAC one. Notre Dame's contract with the ACC puts the ACC in an advantaged position but a full conference schedule still means games with Michigan State, Michigan and Stanford would be increasingly rare.

The easier solution is to keep Louisville, warts and all, and convince ND to up their ACC games to six per year.

Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College
UNC, UVA, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

The "new" Big 12 could be this:

Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, West Virginia, USF, UCF, TCU, Baylor

When Notre Dame is strong then the strength of schedule for ACC teams get stronger, so any win against the Domers would give the ACC champ a leg up in the rankings, potentially putting them over the Big 12 in more years than not.

The part that I'm having trouble with is the idea of NC State and Va Tech to Big 10. Taken separately, they would be fine schools in their own right but Big Ten presidents are known to be hard arses when it comes to credentials. They've proven in the last round that sports are not the primary concern for them but the markets where State and Tech are located should compel at least a close look. Someone should remind them that Michigan State was admitted before being admitted to the AAU.

The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

I wouldn't think that any conference would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs just as it is now.

(03-08-2018 06:06 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

Quote:A new 12 team conference is born.......The Big 12
West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor

Notre Dame, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Syracuse, UVa, Duke, Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State

The questions I have is would these still have access to the CFP. Even if these do that also means that a champs-only format wouldn't be in the offing...which also means that Notre Dame wouldn't still be compelled to put their football program fully in a conference.

The "new" ACC and Big 12 would probably share a spot, the Big Ten one, the SEC one and the PAC one. Notre Dame's contract with the ACC puts the ACC in an advantaged position but a full conference schedule still means games with Michigan State, Michigan and Stanford would be increasingly rare.

The easier solution is to keep Louisville, warts and all, and convince ND to up their ACC games to six per year.

Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College
UNC, UVA, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

The "new" Big 12 could be this:

Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, West Virginia, USF, UCF, TCU, Baylor

When Notre Dame is strong then the strength of schedule for ACC teams get stronger, so any win against the Domers would give the ACC champ a leg up in the rankings, potentially putting them over the Big 12 in more years than not.

The part that I'm having trouble with is the idea of NC State and Va Tech to Big 10. Taken separately, they would be fine schools in their own right but Big Ten presidents are known to be hard arses when it comes to credentials. They've proven in the last round that sports are not the primary concern for them but the markets where State and Tech are located should compel at least a close look. Someone should remind them that Michigan State was admitted before being admitted to the AAU.

The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

NC State and VT are both structured and run like B1G schools. NC State is also thought to be the next in line for the next spot in the AAU.
BTW, State has the largest engineering school in the country, and gives the B1G access to RTP and Watson.

(03-08-2018 06:06 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

NC State didn't really get a choice last time. They are controlled by the UNC system as is every other university in the state.

There was no way the UNC power players were going to allow State to get a leg up on them by moving to the SEC.

Virginia Tech's situation is a little more complicated, but they didn't have a great incentive to leave as many of their conference mates were close by. If the SEC or B1G was offering a group of schools from those states then I don't think VT would have had a problem with leaving.

(03-08-2018 10:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 06:06 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

NC State didn't really get a choice last time. They are controlled by the UNC system as is every other university in the state.

There was no way the UNC power players were going to allow State to get a leg up on them by moving to the SEC.

Virginia Tech's situation is a little more complicated, but they didn't have a great incentive to leave as many of their conference mates were close by. If the SEC or B1G was offering a group of schools from those states then I don't think VT would have had a problem with leaving.

Wake County (where Raleigh is located) now has a population of over one million. And it's the only county in North Carolina where Catholics are in the majority. So a move to the B1G by State wouldn't be looked on by the people or the politicians in the same way a move to the SEC would. There are so many transplants (mostly from the "nawth") that it is hard to find a native and you are just as likely to find someone sporting an Ohio State T-shirt as one with a NC State logo.
I can't speak for Va. Tech's situation, but State (if they wanted to join the B1G) could gain a lot of local support and skirt the negative politics (and the folks in Chapel Hill wouldn't care if State joined the B1G either, matter of fact they may be down right supportive).

(03-09-2018 05:35 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 10:35 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(03-08-2018 06:06 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The other part of those two schools wanting to leave. Tech and State had a chance to leave the last time but chose to stay put. Maybe the ties there are too closely woven to unravel at this point. It'd be like pulling teeth and now with the Grant of Rights even more so.

NC State didn't really get a choice last time. They are controlled by the UNC system as is every other university in the state.

There was no way the UNC power players were going to allow State to get a leg up on them by moving to the SEC.

Virginia Tech's situation is a little more complicated, but they didn't have a great incentive to leave as many of their conference mates were close by. If the SEC or B1G was offering a group of schools from those states then I don't think VT would have had a problem with leaving.

Wake County (where Raleigh is located) now has a population of over one million. And it's the only county in North Carolina where Catholics are in the majority. So a move to the B1G by State wouldn't be looked on by the people or the politicians in the same way a move to the SEC would. There are so many transplants (mostly from the "nawth") that it is hard to find a native and you are just as likely to find someone sporting an Ohio State T-shirt as one with a NC State logo.
I can't speak for Va. Tech's situation, but State (if they wanted to join the B1G) could gain a lot of local support and skirt the negative politics (and the folks in Chapel Hill wouldn't care if State joined the B1G either, matter of fact they may be down right supportive).

But they apparently cared whether or not NC State joined the SEC?

Interesting.

Plenty of Catholics in Louisiana by the way. There are numerous influential Catholics in various roles around SEC country...they just don't make up the majority. There's nothing mutually exclusive about Southern culture and Catholic religion.

But that really wouldn't matter one way or the other. NC State is a major state institution so I'm sure their students and alumni come from all over the state and not just Wake Co.