Michigan State will present a dilemma for the NCAA tournament committee.

Positive: they're going to win the Big 10 regular season title. They're 28-3, with the only losses coming to top-30 RPI teams (Duke on neutral court, @Ohio State, Michigan). They pass the eye test for a #2, maybe even a #1 seed.

Negative: They only have 3 Quadrant 1 victories (top-30 home, top-50 neutral court, top-75 away count as Quadrant 1) They only have 5 Quadrant 2 wins (31-75 home, neutral 51-100, road 76-135).

In other words, they have fewer Quadrant 1 wins AND fewer Quadrant 2 wins than most 5 seeds will have.

The RPI does not like the Big 10 this year: according to RPI, MSU's schedule is considerably easier than Rhode Island, Nevada, Buffalo, WKU, or Middle Tennessee. This is despite a decent nonconference slate for MSU that included Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, UConn, and Depaul.

Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.

(03-02-2018 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.

What 2 are those?
Tonight they play Wisconsin (111) - not Quadrant 1

If they win, they play either Nebraska (52, not Quadrant 1) or Michigan

If they win, they play either Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, or Rutgers. Penn State and Rutgers wouldn't be Quadrant 1 (but it probably won't be them).

So they'd have to win out AND play the right opponents to get two more Quad 1 victories.

As of right now, the 3 seeds projected by Lunardi:

Cincinnati: 5 Q1, 8 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Wichita: 5 Q1, 10 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Auburn: 7 Q1, 4 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q2)
Tennessee: 5 Q1, 7 Q2 (plus conference tourney)

The 5 seeds:
Michigan: 4 Q1, 4 Q2 (plus last conference tourney)
Kentucky: 3 Q1, 8 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)
Gonzaga: 3 Q1, 3 Q2 (plus conference tourney)
Clemson: 4 Q1, 7 Q2 (plus conference tourney, plus one more game remaining in regular season that would be Q1)

(03-02-2018 10:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-02-2018 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Would have 2 more Quadrant 1 wins this week. That would give them 5. That's not too far behind a team like a Xavier who has 6 right now- and has a chance for 2 more.

What 2 are those?
Tonight they play Wisconsin (111) - not Quadrant 1

If they win, they play either Nebraska (52, not Quadrant 1) or Michigan

If they win, they play either Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, or Rutgers. Penn State and Rutgers wouldn't be Quadrant 1 (but it probably won't be them).

So they'd have to win out AND play the right opponents to get two more Quad 1 victories.

Nebraska with a win today would definitely be a Q1 game.

If Penn St beats both Purdue and Ohio St- they could potentially get into the top 50. Just today beating Ohio St would have their RPI up by 14 spots from 81 to 67. So very possible if not likely that Penn St would be a tier 1 game. But even if they don't get into the top 50- it would be another tier 2 win, plus it would elevate their home Penn St win to tier 2 from 3. So instead of 3 and 5 it would be 4 and 7.

(03-02-2018 10:21 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Michigan State will present a dilemma for the NCAA tournament committee.

Positive: they're going to win the Big 10 regular season title. They're 28-3, with the only losses coming to top-30 RPI teams (Duke on neutral court, @Ohio State, Michigan). They pass the eye test for a #2, maybe even a #1 seed.

Negative: They only have 3 Quadrant 1 victories (top-30 home, top-50 neutral court, top-75 away count as Quadrant 1) They only have 5 Quadrant 2 wins (31-75 home, neutral 51-100, road 76-135).

In other words, they have fewer Quadrant 1 wins AND fewer Quadrant 2 wins than most 5 seeds will have.

The RPI does not like the Big 10 this year: according to RPI, MSU's schedule is considerably easier than Rhode Island, Nevada, Buffalo, WKU, or Middle Tennessee. This is despite a decent nonconference slate for MSU that included Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, UConn, and Depaul.

If the dilemma persists through the end of regular season, then the committee will simply abandon the metrics and say we think MSU deserves a 1 or 2 seed. At the end of the day, they will follow the metrics only when they support their personal "eye test".

(03-02-2018 12:15 PM)ken d Wrote:  If the dilemma persists through the end of regular season, then the committee will simply abandon the metrics and say we think MSU deserves a 1 or 2 seed. At the end of the day, they will follow the metrics only when they support their personal "eye test".

Also known as the "name on the front of the jersey" test.

If this was the resume of, say, Rhode Island, the committee would punish them for the weaknesses in their resume and downplay their strengths.

Xavier and Michigan St would be a fascinating way of looking at how the committee looks at things....
The committee now sees 6 ratings....... RPI, KPI, SOR (resume ranks) BPI, KP, Sag (predictive ranks)
Xavier has in resume ranks 3/4/2- so average of 3. but in predictive ranks 13/14/11- average of 12.7. Total average of 7.8
Michigan St has in resume ranks 14/13/4- so average of 10.3. But in predictive ranks 6/6/4- so average of 5.3. Total average also 7.8

How does the committee rank those 2 will be interesting to say the least.

Michigan State loses to Michigan in the Big 10 tourney semifinals.

So they're stuck at 3 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins (pending RPI changes in the next week).