(01-03-2018 12:11 AM)VegasHuskie Wrote:  

(01-02-2018 02:53 PM)jjprender Wrote:  

(01-02-2018 12:23 PM)jjj Wrote:  Yes, I agree a better way to support my argument is to list the "cant miss" future all pros named Drew Bledsoe, Maurice Clarett, Cade McKnown,
Matt Leinart, and Johnny Football among others........


It is going to be interesting to see where Santa transfer too, and if he does indeed prove Rod Carey wrong.......He seems like a nice kid and I will root for him where ever he lands, but college football at the qb position is a very competitive position.......

I am also hoping for improvement our qb play, because if there is not, we may be looking at an 0-4 non conference start.....

I think you meant Ryan Leaf...Bledsoe had a decent career..Brady was just better

Can't miss future pros? None of these guys you listed were ever considered to be sure things in pro ball, with the exception of Ryan Leaf (who you muffed the punt on).

Yeah I'd have to agree with vegsshuskie on this one. None of that list were can't miss. Didn't clarett leave Ohio st with year of eligibility? And cade mcnown was drafted by bears so you know he would bust.

He started a better list for your weak agrument with Ryan leaf.

(01-03-2018 12:33 AM)NIUfrank Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 12:11 AM)VegasHuskie Wrote:  

(01-02-2018 02:53 PM)jjprender Wrote:  

(01-02-2018 12:23 PM)jjj Wrote:  Yes, I agree a better way to support my argument is to list the "cant miss" future all pros named Drew Bledsoe, Maurice Clarett, Cade McKnown,
Matt Leinart, and Johnny Football among others........


It is going to be interesting to see where Santa transfer too, and if he does indeed prove Rod Carey wrong.......He seems like a nice kid and I will root for him where ever he lands, but college football at the qb position is a very competitive position.......

I am also hoping for improvement our qb play, because if there is not, we may be looking at an 0-4 non conference start.....

I think you meant Ryan Leaf...Bledsoe had a decent career..Brady was just better

Can't miss future pros? None of these guys you listed were ever considered to be sure things in pro ball, with the exception of Ryan Leaf (who you muffed the punt on).

Yeah I'd have to agree with vegsshuskie on this one. None of that list were can't miss. Didn't clarett leave Ohio st with year of eligibility? And cade mcnown was drafted by bears so you know he would bust.

He started a better list for your weak agrument with Ryan leaf.

Per Bleacher report, the QB bust rate for first round picks is the second highest of any position over the last 25* years at 40%. Second only to RB at 47%. The safest is safety(irony) and O-tackle who bust at only 14% & 19%.

If you're hoping for an All-pro QB, don't look in the first round. Only 5% of first round qbs have made All-pro over the last 25 years. LBs top that at 26%.

This is your Jamarcus Russels(#1), Jake Locker(#8), Mark Sanchez(#5), Joey Harrington(#3), Vince Young(#3), Tim Couch(#1), Akili Smith(#3), Heath Shuler(#3), Rick Mirer(#2), David Klingler(#6)

But I'll say this....the last 5 years looks really good at QB in the first round. I'd say only Mahomes and EJ Manuel will be labeled busts. And they were first round reaches to start.

*measured up to the 2010 draft since post draft years are needed to determine success rate.

I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Why is Toledo able to recruit stud QB after stud QB? Is it that they have better luck than we do? Or is it that we spend more time looking for a QB who may not be the best passer but is a good runner?

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Yea, that's one odd thing about football, the QB is so critical, and recruiting them there is some luck involved. Still, it's been 4 years since Lynch graduated. And Toledo gets good QBs regularly. Maybe the dual option QBs in high school don't throw it enough to determine how well they can really throw. There should be enough of them though, and not that many FBS schools look for true dual-option QBs so we should be able to get a decent one if there are any.

(01-03-2018 11:07 AM)Dog Fan Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Why is Toledo able to recruit stud QB after stud QB? Is it that they have better luck than we do? Or is it that we spend more time looking for a QB who may not be the best passer but is a good runner?

Can you list these "stud" Qbs? They had woodside and Gradkowki. Those were studs. Between them they had Owens(who's numbers are almost identical to Hares passing, just more attempts, and far less running. And Hare was not a stud) Dantin and Opelt. None of those 3 are studs. Unless I'm missing someone, they've had no more luck than NIU. I can't think of any MAC team that had more than 2 studs over the last 15 years.

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Well said! How do you think Harnish and Lynch developed as great QBs? They wanted to and the coaches worked with them and coached them up and helped them develop the skills. It has been said Hall can't pass; his HS films show he can pass (he has the physical ability) but needs work and development. The same with Childers; he has the physical ability to be a good passer. I have not heard or seen anything that tells me either Hall and Childers do not have the desire. Therein lies the difference; prior coaches coached up Harnish and Lynch, and Carey has not shown the ability to do so.

(01-03-2018 11:34 AM)NILAW Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Well said! How do you think Harnish and Lynch developed as great QBs? They wanted to and the coaches worked with them and coached them up and helped them develop the skills. It has been said Hall can't pass; his HS films show he can pass (he has the physical ability) but needs work and development. The same with Childers; he has the physical ability to be a good passer. I have not heard or seen anything that tells me either Hall and Childers do not have the desire. Therein lies the difference; prior coaches coached up Harnish and Lynch, and Carey has not shown the ability to do so.

It's a great assumption to assume every recruit has the potential to be Lynch or Harnish and all they need is good coaching to be that. Hall is the most inaccurate passer I've seen when in person. High school highlights are a bad evaluation. I can string together the 30 or so great passers Childers made this year, put some cool music to it and make a highlight video that will have you thinking he's the next Aaron Rogers. The flaw with that Harnish and Lynch logic is that those coaches never produced another great QB. Not the head coaches anyway.

(01-03-2018 11:56 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 11:34 AM)NILAW Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:53 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(01-03-2018 10:20 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  I think there's a difference between evaluating QBs you already have in practices for a year or more vs. an NFL team evaluating college players that haven't been even practicing at the NFL level yet.

Absolutely. Carey got it all wrong evaluating what he had. But I cut him some slack when people say he didn't get the next great NIU QB. Recruiting a Lynch or Harnish is purely dumb luck. Developing and evaluating what you have is skill. Not an easy skill when you have such a mixed bag like Graham, Santa, Childers, but a necessary skill none the less. And it's the main reason I say Carey needs to go. He's failing in the one area you just have to succeed at.

Well said! How do you think Harnish and Lynch developed as great QBs? They wanted to and the coaches worked with them and coached them up and helped them develop the skills. It has been said Hall can't pass; his HS films show he can pass (he has the physical ability) but needs work and development. The same with Childers; he has the physical ability to be a good passer. I have not heard or seen anything that tells me either Hall and Childers do not have the desire. Therein lies the difference; prior coaches coached up Harnish and Lynch, and Carey has not shown the ability to do so.

It's a great assumption to assume every recruit has the potential to be Lynch or Harnish and all they need is good coaching to be that. Hall is the most inaccurate passer I've seen when in person. High school highlights are a bad evaluation. I can string together the 30 or so great passers Childers made this year, put some cool music to it and make a highlight video that will have you thinking he's the next Aaron Rogers. The flaw with that Harnish and Lynch logic is that those coaches never produced another great QB. Not the head coaches anyway.

+1 Rabid. I’m going to sound like a broken record as I’ve said this numerous times but Carey needs to show Harmon the door. Haven’t seen improvements really with the QBs since he’s been here. Don’t hear about recruits saying things about him or the players. Really not sure what he brings to the table at all. harnish said multiple times how much the QB coaches helped him progress in getting better each year, especially Zibrowkowski (spell check).

Carey hired harmon as another guy he probably knew since he went to NIU and was a “safe” hire in his eyes.

Rapid Squirrel, WOW, wish I had the bleacher report article you found , nice find!!!



" Only 5% of first round qbs have made All-pro over the last 25 years."


Given this is the era of the combine, pro-days at school, massive film analysis, scouting gurus, individual workouts, scouting gurus, this is the best fact yet!!!


Another great story for the myth of scouting is a science is that the 49ers held an individual workout for bay area pro prospects conducted by Bill Walsh, and Tom Brady one of the prospects.

....Bill Walsh watched Tom Brady workout, and came away with "nothing there" that would indicate Tom Brady should be a draft pick...

Wouldn't one of the greatest, if not the greatest coach of all time, a man who is known for coaching quarterbacks "see" the skills in this player who would go on to win 5 superbowls ?????


(Bill Walsh was looking at the next Joe Montana in person and totally missed on it and went with Giovanni Carmazzi instead, who was replaced by Rattay eventually as the starter...)


From wiki:

Giovanni was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in the third round (65th overall pick) of the 2000 NFL Draft (he was the 2nd quarterback taken all draft). However, it was Tim Rattay—who was not selected until the seventh round of that draft—who ended up being the one to stick around and make the regular roster. Carmazzi was taken ahead of Bay Area resident Tom Brady, who was not taken until the 6th round.

Interesting that this poll is 75-25 based on the chatter. We need the Carey defenders to be louder on here to make the case ^^.

Healthy debate, dont be scared!

(01-03-2018 01:51 PM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  Interesting that this poll is 75-25 based on the chatter. We need the Carey defenders to be louder on here to make the case ^^.

Healthy debate, dont be scared!

Here is my advocacy for Carey.

*The program is clean
*The program graduates players
*The program has a high APR

*The program has a positive W/L record
*The program is competitive in the MAC
*The program is routinely in the running for the MAC West and MACC.
*The program is routinely bowl eligible

*The program has the MAC Freshman of the Year
*The program has the MAC Defensive Player of the Year
*The program has a first team All-American
*The program has 10 All-MAC players

Do bowl losses, a QB controversy, and some bone-headed play calling and press remarks negate all the above? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the conference room when those conversations happen with the only people that matter: NIU leadership. Again, I'd point Carey's detractors to the contract linked above - have a read and share where he is not meeting his contractual obligations.

I fear more the change the coach for the sake of coaching change argument versus change because the HC is not in alignment nor successful with the bullet points above.

One cannot concentrate on the bad, without an honest look at the good (and vice versa, of course.)

For me personally, considering the clown show that can be NCAA FBS coaching carousels, some stability at this position is a warranted, and positive, as long as the first seven bullet points are being met.

I am in Lord Stanley's camp as well. We had a very good team this year. With a better QB and no other changes we very possibly could have won 11 or 12 games. The biggest problems of play calling, offensive identity and QB go hand in hand.

So how long do you extend him for then? 5 years?

Here's how i would do it for any coach at any institution. Give him a five year deal when he's hired and keep him on a rolling three years thereafter. At the end of each season you have the option to give him another year or fire him with two years severance. Seems fair to everybody.

If I was Carey's boss, I would offer an extension depending on what's normal and customary for his level of success in comparison to his peers and taking into account his contractual successes and his need for continued learning in other areas. Just like any other type of performance review.

For instance, I think there are very real pauses to be had surrounding some of his play calling, his sideline demeanor, and many of his press remarks. While I joke that bowls are only important when you win, NIU is squandering institutional respect by not beating Boises, TCUs or Dukes. There is a there, there.

Within that extension, I would add clauses that helped Carey in the off-season with his public relations, demeanor, speaking, and media relations. For instance, I always think that his hat is too small, and a little better tailoring of his suits and his sideline garb would present a better image. His faux-stration with the media interviews going into half-time doesn't help win friends and influence people.

Silly perhaps to state that all above, but presentation is important. Not the only important thing (see: Belichick) but certainly something that can positive (see: Fleck) when on TV or in front of recruits. (Note: not advocating for him to be Fleck. But he can't rest on Super Bowls like Belichick can)

(This is not bad as there are very few people with any sort of public or client facing responsibilities who cannot benefit from this type of training and critique. Hell I get it twice a year, every year and I could seriously pick-up a mike at a sold out Huskie Stadium and tell bad Toledo jokes in front of 22,000 without breaking a sweat. The last big client win for me, the team I was on even prepared down to the color of our suits, ties and shoes to make sure we didn't look all Men-in-Black when we showed up at the best and final. So I still learn something every time I am in PR training.)

But this is just me, who cares? What I said above is barely worth the internet ink spilled to type it. Only STF matters but seeing STF in action makes me know that PR is important to NIU Athletics success.

I don’t completely agree with the comments that imply this season could been great if it were not for QB play and play calling, Our play calling and QB play were good enough to beat Nebraska, and was good enough to put up 28 points on an SDSU defense that held ASU and Stanford to 20 and 17 points respectively. Our play calling changed when the QB change was made. Santa had a bad end to what was a great game till the last 2.5 minutes; the same can be said for the play calling.
All the “plus points” made about Carey are spot on. The one thing that the season lacked was continuous improvement. Perhaps the “dividend” for the investment in Childers will come in 2018, but we did not get better as the season progressed. Carey would have to rectify this next season before he earns an extension. If he does, he absolutely would have earned it.

(01-04-2018 08:36 PM)Djud Wrote:  I don’t completely agree with the comments that imply this season could been great if it were not for QB play and play calling, Our play calling and QB play were good enough to beat Nebraska, and was good enough to put up 28 points on an SDSU defense that held ASU and Stanford to 20 and 17 points respectively. Our play calling changed when the QB change was made. Santa had a bad end to what was a great game till the last 2.5 minutes; the same can be said for the play calling.
All the “plus points” made about Carey are spot on. The one thing that the season lacked was continuous improvement. Perhaps the “dividend” for the investment in Childers will come in 2018, but we did not get better as the season progressed. Carey would have to rectify this next season before he earns an extension. If he does, he absolutely would have earned it.

Umm, did you forget that the QB play against Nebraska and the 28 points against SDSU were by a QB that got benched? The rest of the year we didn't have that because of Carey. The complaints about QB and playcalling were after Childers started playing.

Need to beat a winning team something we haven't done in over two years. Also need to get a better OC. Extensions are largely to help with buyouts. It hasn't been a worry for us with Carey, as nobody has wanted him surprisingly. Kill and Doren were both gone by now, could be a reason for that.