(12-13-2017 11:49 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Recent developments...

1. Disney looking to buy a huge chunk of FOX and that would give ESPN a huge advantage if they take over the RSNs.

2. Texas is apparently looking at establishing a new vision and being a leader in the Big 12 again rather than simply the most powerful vote.

3. There appears to be growing discontent within the PAC 12.

Interesting how this could all work out.

Yep, it looks like ESPN is going to wind up with a boatload of leverage and the ability to fix some of the things that heretofore have been too complicated to tackle. What they won't have is an excuse not to provide the SEC some very nice finishing touches.

(12-14-2017 12:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-13-2017 11:49 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Recent developments...

1. Disney looking to buy a huge chunk of FOX and that would give ESPN a huge advantage if they take over the RSNs.

2. Texas is apparently looking at establishing a new vision and being a leader in the Big 12 again rather than simply the most powerful vote.

3. There appears to be growing discontent within the PAC 12.

Interesting how this could all work out.

Yep, it looks like ESPN is going to wind up with a boatload of leverage and the ability to fix some of the things that heretofore have been too complicated to tackle. What they won't have is an excuse not to provide the SEC some very nice finishing touches.

I agree with your first statement. ESPN should be able to make suggestions as to how placement would work to everyone's benefit. As such, I would look for balance in all conferences as well as logical placement. Notre Dame would be on the clock, too.
What i find disappointing, is the expectation displayed in your second statement, that the SEC is somehow owed something special.

Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593

Quote:Walt Disney ( DIS ) said Thursday that it has reached a $66.1 billion deal to acquire 21st Century Fox 's ( FOXA ) entertainment assets, as the media giant prepares to up the ante against Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) in streaming content.

Disney will pay $52.4 billion in stock as well as assume $13.7 billion in debt to buy 21st Century Fox. Disney will get the 20th Century Fox's movie and TV studios, key Fox cable channels, and certain international properties.

Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a separately traded firm before the Disney takeover.

With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

(12-14-2017 08:27 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593

Quote:Walt Disney ( DIS ) said Thursday that it has reached a $66.1 billion deal to acquire 21st Century Fox 's ( FOXA ) entertainment assets, as the media giant prepares to up the ante against Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) in streaming content.

Disney will pay $52.4 billion in stock as well as assume $13.7 billion in debt to buy 21st Century Fox. Disney will get the 20th Century Fox's movie and TV studios, key Fox cable channels, and certain international properties.

Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a separately traded firm before the Disney takeover.

With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

I would be confident that the combination of Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, and UCLA would leave for the B1G. Arizona and Colorado may be invited along.

Washington St, Oregon St, Utah, and Arizona St along with BYU, San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, and Houston. West Virginia finding a home in the ACC or SEC.

(12-14-2017 12:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:27 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593

Quote:Walt Disney ( DIS ) said Thursday that it has reached a $66.1 billion deal to acquire 21st Century Fox 's ( FOXA ) entertainment assets, as the media giant prepares to up the ante against Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) in streaming content.

Disney will pay $52.4 billion in stock as well as assume $13.7 billion in debt to buy 21st Century Fox. Disney will get the 20th Century Fox's movie and TV studios, key Fox cable channels, and certain international properties.

Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a separately traded firm before the Disney takeover.

With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

I would be confident that the combination of Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, and UCLA would leave for the B1G. Arizona and Colorado may be invited along.

Washington St, Oregon St, Utah, and Arizona St along with BYU, San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, and Houston. West Virginia finding a home in the ACC or SEC.

It's not going to work that way. First of all B.Y.U., San Diego State, Boise State, and others of their ilk won't find their way into any Eastern conference period. The revenue is too ridiculously low and the travel expense too high.

Washington State and Oregon State are too small and remote to make it.

It is still more likely that the PAC stays together and adds 4 from the Big 12. Now in order to land that 12 they're going to have to sell ESPN their PACN. That will enable Texas, Texas Tech, and two others to make that move.

And if they didn't agree to it and the PAC got parsed, which is much much less likely to happen, then where would those schools move their sports? Would they go with FOX's FS1 & FS2 given the political differences of those two groups, or would they go with PC Disney which has it's original enterprise in California?

I would seriously look for them to strike a deal with Disney which means the Big 12 gets a face lift. The most screwed college sports enterprise coming out of this deal is the BTN which I imagine was left in FOX's hands to allay claims of a monopoly. There were other streaming and movie producers out there. But if FS1 and FS2 along with the BTN are taken then ESPN has a monopoly. FS1 and FS2 will be taken care of as will the BTN but make no mistake their content boosts will be perks from Disney and they will be even less of a player moving forward. The Big 10 won't be hurt by this financially, but if any divisions of schools comes out of it look for fair treatment, but no exceptional treatment.

The LHN can be used now to pool all Big 12 T3 rights into it. If that happens and it becomes the B12N then Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, definitely become interesting possibilities.

Look for W.V.U. to move to either the SEC or ACC. Look for ESPN to encourage a Texas private or two to move as well. Maybe T.C.U. to the SEC, especially if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State remain in a rebuilding Big 12. If the Big 10 grows out of this then Colorado and Kansas make sense to go with Nebraska. The Big 10 like the SEC isn't going to grow with gaps and remote schools. Those two fit and still provide the BTN with a large market in Denver and gives the Big 10 the schools where both football and basketball began (Rutgers and Kansas).

Personally, I think the California schools stick together and that Oregon and Washington will want that as well. Utah gets the last slot in the Big 12.

I still think if the PAC is absorbed that Washington State and Oregon State join with the aforementioned smaller West Coast schools to form some new sort of WAC which with a rebuilt and consolidated AAC become by far the best of the G2. And if that can be done then a new upper division is formed consisting of the new P4 and the new G2.

But most likely what comes of this is that the 4 Texas schools, or 3 Texas schools & Kansas State move to the PAC and the LHN becomes ESPN's version of the PACN, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC. Iowa State and Kansas head to the Big 10. And West Virginia and Notre Dame join the ACC.

The wild card IMO is Notre Dame. They might opt to join the Big 10 for the cash and academic relationship, and ease of travel for minor sports should they be forced to go all in. If they do so then Notre Dame and Kansas are the adds in the Big 10. Then Connecticut and West Virginia probably round out the ACC.

So if the PAC sticks together we might see this:

Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State


SEC

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big 10

Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers


ACC

Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

If it doesn't go that way it turns out like a posted about a page ago in this thread.

The PAC really isn't in a good position. Not only do they not have distribution and strong profits under their current setup, but they just lost a significant degree of power in charting their own future.

The Big 12, by contrast, has a few things going for them right now...

1. ESPN now controls the T3 rights of the entire league which doesn't necessarily guarantee a Big 12 Network, but it does create leverage for ESPN to use the Big 12 to acquire other properties.

2. It's true that the Big 12 was overpaid a little bit in order to stabilize things, but there no longer exists an entity capable of bidding up the price of the Big 12 to any significant degree. While this sounds like a disadvantage for the league, more than that, it means the league doesn't have to worry about being parsed out in order to appease the interests of multiple networks.

3. Texas still wants to play regional rivals

When it comes to the PAC, however, things aren't looking up.

1. The PAC Networks still aren't that profitable and ESPN likely doesn't have to worry about FOX buying the PACN. It's true that FOX is now flush with cash, but the overwhelming majority of the sale price came in the form of stocks. Fox now owns a fair chunk of Disney and therefore will wish Disney to be very successful. They aren't about to start competing with them on a direct level and risk the value of their own investment.

2. The PAC is geographically disadvantaged. They never had any great prospects for expansion outside of raiding the Big 12. If that's off the table then maybe they could strike some kind of deal with the B1G, but that's a heck of a lot of travel.

The PAC might have very little choice other than to do whatever ESPN wants them to do. What exactly that will be, I'm not sure.

(12-14-2017 08:51 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The PAC really isn't in a good position. Not only do they not have distribution and strong profits under their current setup, but they just lost a significant degree of power in charting their own future.

The Big 12, by contrast, has a few things going for them right now...

1. ESPN now controls the T3 rights of the entire league which doesn't necessarily guarantee a Big 12 Network, but it does create leverage for ESPN to use the Big 12 to acquire other properties.

2. It's true that the Big 12 was overpaid a little bit in order to stabilize things, but there no longer exists an entity capable of bidding up the price of the Big 12 to any significant degree. While this sounds like a disadvantage for the league, more than that, it means the league doesn't have to worry about being parsed out in order to appease the interests of multiple networks.

3. Texas still wants to play regional rivals

When it comes to the PAC, however, things aren't looking up.

1. The PAC Networks still aren't that profitable and ESPN likely doesn't have to worry about FOX buying the PACN. It's true that FOX is now flush with cash, but the overwhelming majority of the sale price came in the form of stocks. Fox now owns a fair chunk of Disney and therefore will wish Disney to be very successful. They aren't about to start competing with them on a direct level and risk the value of their own investment.

2. The PAC is geographically disadvantaged. They never had any great prospects for expansion outside of raiding the Big 12. If that's off the table then maybe they could strike some kind of deal with the B1G, but that's a heck of a lot of travel.

The PAC might have very little choice other than to do whatever ESPN wants them to do. What exactly that will be, I'm not sure.

That's a true and very important part of what is going to happen moving forward. But don't count out one contingency. Perhaps ESPN will need for FOX to buy the PAC if they are going to count on their cooperation. ESPN is dangerously close to owning a % of the College Sports Market that would constitute a monopoly.

I do believe that is one reason they didn't try to acquire the BTN or FS1 or FS2.

In this deal two areas were sensitive to the government as far as anti-trust was concerned. The main one was News coverage. The secondary one is the college sports market. Since having a majority share gives ESPN undue leverage over the payouts for rights and since that particularly affects state universities, there is political interest in keeping the transactions mutual.

I expect, based on the business channels today, that the government is going to call into question the purchase of the RSN's. The fact that the News and FS1 & 2 and the BTN are not included is, IMO, a calculated move to avoid government intervention to the deal.

But, too your point. It's an excellent one to signal that whatever happens will not damage ESPN's or FOX's holdings. To me that means that the parsing or the salvation of the Big 12 are equally possible. So specifically if the PAC doesn't sell out to ESPN or FOX the parsing of those schools is very likely. I truly believe the Cali schools and at least Oregon and Washington will stick together in a move most likely to the Big 12 where new contracts could really payout as well as anything the SEC or Big 10 could offer.

I also believe that the shedding of duplication in the Texas market will occur and the release of West Virginia will as well. T.C.U., Baylor, and West Virginia might all be up for grabs as niche markets.

However if the PAC does sell out, then the resolution of the Big 12 also becomes much more likely. Perhaps then Texas does opt to head West, and perhaps Oklahoma does opt to stick with OSU in the SEC, and perhaps ESPN and FOX could make Kansas and Iowa State attractive to the Big 10.

There is a whole lot of potential for resolution to the realignment process if this deal is finalized by government approval.

(12-14-2017 09:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:51 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The PAC really isn't in a good position. Not only do they not have distribution and strong profits under their current setup, but they just lost a significant degree of power in charting their own future.

The Big 12, by contrast, has a few things going for them right now...

1. ESPN now controls the T3 rights of the entire league which doesn't necessarily guarantee a Big 12 Network, but it does create leverage for ESPN to use the Big 12 to acquire other properties.

2. It's true that the Big 12 was overpaid a little bit in order to stabilize things, but there no longer exists an entity capable of bidding up the price of the Big 12 to any significant degree. While this sounds like a disadvantage for the league, more than that, it means the league doesn't have to worry about being parsed out in order to appease the interests of multiple networks.

3. Texas still wants to play regional rivals

When it comes to the PAC, however, things aren't looking up.

1. The PAC Networks still aren't that profitable and ESPN likely doesn't have to worry about FOX buying the PACN. It's true that FOX is now flush with cash, but the overwhelming majority of the sale price came in the form of stocks. Fox now owns a fair chunk of Disney and therefore will wish Disney to be very successful. They aren't about to start competing with them on a direct level and risk the value of their own investment.

2. The PAC is geographically disadvantaged. They never had any great prospects for expansion outside of raiding the Big 12. If that's off the table then maybe they could strike some kind of deal with the B1G, but that's a heck of a lot of travel.

The PAC might have very little choice other than to do whatever ESPN wants them to do. What exactly that will be, I'm not sure.

That's a true and very important part of what is going to happen moving forward. But don't count out one contingency. Perhaps ESPN will need for FOX to buy the PAC if they are going to count on their cooperation. ESPN is dangerously close to owning a % of the College Sports Market that would constitute a monopoly.

I do believe that is one reason they didn't try to acquire the BTN or FS1 or FS2.

In this deal two areas were sensitive to the government as far as anti-trust was concerned. The main one was News coverage. The secondary one is the college sports market. Since having a majority share gives ESPN undue leverage over the payouts for rights and since that particularly affects state universities, there is political interest in keeping the transactions mutual.

I expect, based on the business channels today, that the government is going to call into question the purchase of the RSN's. The fact that the News and FS1 & 2 and the BTN are not included is, IMO, a calculated move to avoid government intervention to the deal.

But, too your point. It's an excellent one to signal that whatever happens will not damage ESPN's or FOX's holdings. To me that means that the parsing or the salvation of the Big 12 are equally possible. So specifically if the PAC doesn't sell out to ESPN or FOX the parsing of those schools is very likely. I truly believe the Cali schools and at least Oregon and Washington will stick together in a move most likely to the Big 12 where new contracts could really payout as well as anything the SEC or Big 10 could offer.

I also believe that the shedding of duplication in the Texas market will occur and the release of West Virginia will as well. T.C.U., Baylor, and West Virginia might all be up for grabs as niche markets.

However if the PAC does sell out, then the resolution of the Big 12 also becomes much more likely. Perhaps then Texas does opt to head West, and perhaps Oklahoma does opt to stick with OSU in the SEC, and perhaps ESPN and FOX could make Kansas and Iowa State attractive to the Big 10.

There is a whole lot of potential for resolution to the realignment process if this deal is finalized by government approval.

Just my guess, but I would think the Feds won't have a great case to rebuff this deal based on the RSNs. My reasoning is that Fox wasn't really bought out, they just sold off a good chunk of their assets. That and Disney is maximizing content rather than maximizing both the content and delivery method.

The AT&T offer to buy Time Warner seems a little different to me. One organization is being completely absorbed there and it creates potential conflicts with regard to competitors to the parent company being allowed access to content. But I don't know.

Anyway, it's an interesting point that there could be some sort of backroom deal here requiring FOX to go ahead and buy into the PAC Network...

What if you saw something like this?

-FOX buys half the PAC Network and streamlines it, essentially adopting the standard model for conference networks rather than the muddled mess the channel is now.
-ESPN maintains control of the SEC and ACC Networks, but the Big 12 is divided up amongst the powers.
-ESPN uses their RSNs to show local college sports content. Fox doesn't really have this option as the BTN and PACN are national channels, but the carriage issues probably keep some games off air in important markets.
-FOX and ESPN partner on an 'out of market' package for college sports...something akin to NFL Sunday Ticket or something like that...that allows a portion of the rights for all major conferences to be streamed/broadcasted on one platform across the country. This not only creates a new revenue stream, but further cements the partnership between the 2 media companies.

(12-15-2017 02:12 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 09:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:51 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  The PAC really isn't in a good position. Not only do they not have distribution and strong profits under their current setup, but they just lost a significant degree of power in charting their own future.

The Big 12, by contrast, has a few things going for them right now...

1. ESPN now controls the T3 rights of the entire league which doesn't necessarily guarantee a Big 12 Network, but it does create leverage for ESPN to use the Big 12 to acquire other properties.

2. It's true that the Big 12 was overpaid a little bit in order to stabilize things, but there no longer exists an entity capable of bidding up the price of the Big 12 to any significant degree. While this sounds like a disadvantage for the league, more than that, it means the league doesn't have to worry about being parsed out in order to appease the interests of multiple networks.

3. Texas still wants to play regional rivals

When it comes to the PAC, however, things aren't looking up.

1. The PAC Networks still aren't that profitable and ESPN likely doesn't have to worry about FOX buying the PACN. It's true that FOX is now flush with cash, but the overwhelming majority of the sale price came in the form of stocks. Fox now owns a fair chunk of Disney and therefore will wish Disney to be very successful. They aren't about to start competing with them on a direct level and risk the value of their own investment.

2. The PAC is geographically disadvantaged. They never had any great prospects for expansion outside of raiding the Big 12. If that's off the table then maybe they could strike some kind of deal with the B1G, but that's a heck of a lot of travel.

The PAC might have very little choice other than to do whatever ESPN wants them to do. What exactly that will be, I'm not sure.

That's a true and very important part of what is going to happen moving forward. But don't count out one contingency. Perhaps ESPN will need for FOX to buy the PAC if they are going to count on their cooperation. ESPN is dangerously close to owning a % of the College Sports Market that would constitute a monopoly.

I do believe that is one reason they didn't try to acquire the BTN or FS1 or FS2.

In this deal two areas were sensitive to the government as far as anti-trust was concerned. The main one was News coverage. The secondary one is the college sports market. Since having a majority share gives ESPN undue leverage over the payouts for rights and since that particularly affects state universities, there is political interest in keeping the transactions mutual.

I expect, based on the business channels today, that the government is going to call into question the purchase of the RSN's. The fact that the News and FS1 & 2 and the BTN are not included is, IMO, a calculated move to avoid government intervention to the deal.

But, too your point. It's an excellent one to signal that whatever happens will not damage ESPN's or FOX's holdings. To me that means that the parsing or the salvation of the Big 12 are equally possible. So specifically if the PAC doesn't sell out to ESPN or FOX the parsing of those schools is very likely. I truly believe the Cali schools and at least Oregon and Washington will stick together in a move most likely to the Big 12 where new contracts could really payout as well as anything the SEC or Big 10 could offer.

I also believe that the shedding of duplication in the Texas market will occur and the release of West Virginia will as well. T.C.U., Baylor, and West Virginia might all be up for grabs as niche markets.

However if the PAC does sell out, then the resolution of the Big 12 also becomes much more likely. Perhaps then Texas does opt to head West, and perhaps Oklahoma does opt to stick with OSU in the SEC, and perhaps ESPN and FOX could make Kansas and Iowa State attractive to the Big 10.

There is a whole lot of potential for resolution to the realignment process if this deal is finalized by government approval.

Just my guess, but I would think the Feds won't have a great case to rebuff this deal based on the RSNs. My reasoning is that Fox wasn't really bought out, they just sold off a good chunk of their assets. That and Disney is maximizing content rather than maximizing both the content and delivery method.

The AT&T offer to buy Time Warner seems a little different to me. One organization is being completely absorbed there and it creates potential conflicts with regard to competitors to the parent company being allowed access to content. But I don't know.

Anyway, it's an interesting point that there could be some sort of backroom deal here requiring FOX to go ahead and buy into the PAC Network...

What if you saw something like this?

-FOX buys half the PAC Network and streamlines it, essentially adopting the standard model for conference networks rather than the muddled mess the channel is now.
-ESPN maintains control of the SEC and ACC Networks, but the Big 12 is divided up amongst the powers.
-ESPN uses their RSNs to show local college sports content. Fox doesn't really have this option as the BTN and PACN are national channels, but the carriage issues probably keep some games off air in important markets.
-FOX and ESPN partner on an 'out of market' package for college sports...something akin to NFL Sunday Ticket or something like that...that allows a portion of the rights for all major conferences to be streamed/broadcasted on one platform across the country. This not only creates a new revenue stream, but further cements the partnership between the 2 media companies.

I not only think that something like that is possible, but probable. Maybe there are a few key games that purchasable only through a streaming, or the purchase of a premium cable package. That package can be FOX Big 10 or PAC channels, or ESPN's SEC and ACC channels. Buy those at a tier on standard cable and you gain access to the whole streaming package. Don't and they are sold severally, virtually as they are now with ESPN3.

If they didn't want to go that route then a Saturday ticket on an upper tier gets you the same, only with your HD cable package you get it in much higher quality.

I think there's a lot of wiggle room there for both.

(12-15-2017 02:21 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I not only think that something like that is possible, but probable. Maybe there are a few key games that purchasable only through a streaming, or the purchase of a premium cable package. That package can be FOX Big 10 or PAC channels, or ESPN's SEC and ACC channels. Buy those at a tier on standard cable and you gain access to the whole streaming package. Don't and they are sold severally, virtually as they are now with ESPN3.

If they didn't want to go that route then a Saturday ticket on an upper tier gets you the same, only with your HD cable package you get it in much higher quality.

I think there's a lot of wiggle room there for both.

Speaking of some sort of 'out of market package,' I was reading through this article in another thread and saw some interesting tidbits.

Cal's Chancellor criticizes PAC 12

I was particularly intrigued by this...

Quote:With a hint of exasperation, Christ noted, “We didn’t know when the Big Game was going to be played until six days before.”

She then expressed dismay over the extent to which control of sporting life on the campuses has been handed over to the conference’s television partners.

“I know that sounds trivial,’’ she said, “but part of the value of football to the institution is community building, and it makes it very hard to realize that value with the constant jerking around of game times.”

It was suggested to Christ that the conference had traded control of the schedule — the flexibility to set kickoff times at late dates — for a more lucrative contract with ESPN and Fox.

“I know it’s impossible to turn the clock back … to a simpler time in athletics when football games were always at 1 p.m. and they were big occasions in the campus’ community life, and all the games were on the weekends, and the athletes were less challenged by being students and athletes, too.

“It’s not that the Pac-12 is the sole actor in all that, but it’s the way in which we entered this world of cable TV-dominated sports scheduling, with all its negative aspects.”

Christ went on to note the demands placed on athletes by the Pac-12 Networks, which broadcast hundreds of Olympic sports events.

In addition to football, she said, there are “distortions in other schedules, where athletes are traveling in the middle of the week and it’s compromising their attendance in classes because of the Pac-12 Network, in which they’re broadcasting all these games to, I think, very small TV audiences.

“Fundamentally, this has to be about the student experience.’’

The easiest way to solve the scheduling issue is to have regional broadcasting. After all, there are way too many games to show on national TV simultaneously. It pushes certain contests to the fringes and makes it harder on fans and athletes. The revenue doesn't necessarily make up for the headaches.

When you consider that fans would rather attend games at reasonable times and most of your viewers for most games are within your region then it just makes too much sense.

(12-14-2017 02:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 12:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:27 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593

Quote:Walt Disney ( DIS ) said Thursday that it has reached a $66.1 billion deal to acquire 21st Century Fox 's ( FOXA ) entertainment assets, as the media giant prepares to up the ante against Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) in streaming content.

Disney will pay $52.4 billion in stock as well as assume $13.7 billion in debt to buy 21st Century Fox. Disney will get the 20th Century Fox's movie and TV studios, key Fox cable channels, and certain international properties.

Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a separately traded firm before the Disney takeover.

With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

I would be confident that the combination of Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, and UCLA would leave for the B1G. Arizona and Colorado may be invited along.

Washington St, Oregon St, Utah, and Arizona St along with BYU, San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, and Houston. West Virginia finding a home in the ACC or SEC.

It's not going to work that way. First of all B.Y.U., San Diego State, Boise State, and others of their ilk won't find their way into any Eastern conference period. The revenue is too ridiculously low and the travel expense too high.

Washington State and Oregon State are too small and remote to make it.

It is still more likely that the PAC stays together and adds 4 from the Big 12. Now in order to land that 12 they're going to have to sell ESPN their PACN. That will enable Texas, Texas Tech, and two others to make that move.

And if they didn't agree to it and the PAC got parsed, which is much much less likely to happen, then where would those schools move their sports? Would they go with FOX's FS1 & FS2 given the political differences of those two groups, or would they go with PC Disney which has it's original enterprise in California?

I would seriously look for them to strike a deal with Disney which means the Big 12 gets a face lift. The most screwed college sports enterprise coming out of this deal is the BTN which I imagine was left in FOX's hands to allay claims of a monopoly. There were other streaming and movie producers out there. But if FS1 and FS2 along with the BTN are taken then ESPN has a monopoly. FS1 and FS2 will be taken care of as will the BTN but make no mistake their content boosts will be perks from Disney and they will be even less of a player moving forward. The Big 10 won't be hurt by this financially, but if any divisions of schools comes out of it look for fair treatment, but no exceptional treatment.

The LHN can be used now to pool all Big 12 T3 rights into it. If that happens and it becomes the B12N then Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, definitely become interesting possibilities.

Look for W.V.U. to move to either the SEC or ACC. Look for ESPN to encourage a Texas private or two to move as well. Maybe T.C.U. to the SEC, especially if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State remain in a rebuilding Big 12. If the Big 10 grows out of this then Colorado and Kansas make sense to go with Nebraska. The Big 10 like the SEC isn't going to grow with gaps and remote schools. Those two fit and still provide the BTN with a large market in Denver and gives the Big 10 the schools where both football and basketball began (Rutgers and Kansas).

Personally, I think the California schools stick together and that Oregon and Washington will want that as well. Utah gets the last slot in the Big 12.

I still think if the PAC is absorbed that Washington State and Oregon State join with the aforementioned smaller West Coast schools to form some new sort of WAC which with a rebuilt and consolidated AAC become by far the best of the G2. And if that can be done then a new upper division is formed consisting of the new P4 and the new G2.

But most likely what comes of this is that the 4 Texas schools, or 3 Texas schools & Kansas State move to the PAC and the LHN becomes ESPN's version of the PACN, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC. Iowa State and Kansas head to the Big 10. And West Virginia and Notre Dame join the ACC.

The wild card IMO is Notre Dame. They might opt to join the Big 10 for the cash and academic relationship, and ease of travel for minor sports should they be forced to go all in. If they do so then Notre Dame and Kansas are the adds in the Big 10. Then Connecticut and West Virginia probably round out the ACC.

So if the PAC sticks together we might see this:

Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State


SEC

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big 10

Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers


ACC

Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

If it doesn't go that way it turns out like a posted about a page ago in this thread.

Minimal movement is the most likely path, not ideal, just the most likely for now.

IF regional broadcasting becomes a major component of how college sports gets covered in the near future then I think we can assume certain things...

1. The biggest games will be covered by the major platforms...ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, SECN, and ACCN on the Disney side. FOX, FS1, and BTN on the Fox side. Maybe the PACN ends up in the Fox column and gets better national coverage although ESPN would still be able to distribute the network more effectively. Basically there will be 3 time slots in a given day. We might still get a late game, but ratings will be maximized across the board if time slots are a little more uniform.

All this means that your big games and even a lot of marginal games will still be covered nationally. Too many time slots to fill for it to work another way. With that said, there will be plenty of opportunities for RSNs to show games from P5 leagues and G5 leagues alike.

2. Thursday and Friday night games will still most likely exist and there might even be more of them, but few of them will be national broadcasts. The mid-week games will go away I think as there will be more opportunities to show those games in niche markets and maybe convert time slots on the bigger platforms into "pro" nights.

3. The RSNs will still have to account for a great deal of pro content...MLB, NBA, MLS, and NHL. So that means the time slots available aren't necessarily confined to what is best for local college sports which is good for the networks. It's not terrible for the schools though as they're more likely to get favorable time slots that help ticket sales. After all, the networks need to motivate fans to buy streaming and 'out of market' packages.

4. Especially during basketball and baseball season, I think the opportunities for G5 and FCS schools to get slots will be there. The P5 will still get most of the national broadcasts, but the RSNs should still be showing a lot of schools you might not otherwise get to see. ESPN already owns virtually all of that content. They might as well use it.

Now here's what I'm wondering...

Given the platform for additional content is growing tremendously, do the networks actually encourage Power leagues to grow?

1. The networks want as many compelling match-up as they can get, true, but as the Power leagues move towards separation of some sort then not only will the top schools want built-in breaks on the schedule, but the networks might actually want to create more Power content, brand wise, in order to make it more likely that some of it gets pushed to the RSNs and is therefore a motivation for fans across the country to buy the 'out of market' package.

2. While the Big 12 is still not likely to survive and a P4 would make things more reasonable for setting up a postseason, there's really not a great way to divide things up. So maybe elevating a few G5s is part of the solution? Everybody gets a little bit of what they want and a little bit of what they might find palatable for other reasons. The added benefit here is that schools who are capable of competing aren't being dragged down by the lower tier G5 schools.

3. As ESPN becomes the primary bidder once again for content, there's got to be less fear from the execs that growing a Power league will result in inflated rights fees. ESPN is not going to bid against itself, but it could sell the leagues on a portion of the proceeds from the new packages. That might create motivation for the leagues to want to expand even though they wouldn't be getting huge new contracts.

So what if we get 4 Power leagues of 18-20 each? Mike Slive did say the next move would be to very large leagues. Is that purely a matter of consolidation or a matter of expanding the ranks and just reorganizing?

2 Confederations of 4 Conferences Each of 10 Schools Each

Western Confederation
PAC: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St
X: Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa St, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
B1G: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St
MWC: San Diego St, UNLV, Boise St, Utah, Colorado St, New Mexico, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Tulsa

Eastern Confederation
SEC: LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida
ACC: Florida St, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, Maryland, Penn St
Great 10: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Miami, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College
Metro: Houston, Tulane, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida, East Carolina, Temple, Connecticut

(12-16-2017 05:45 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  2 Confederations of 4 Conferences Each of 10 Schools Each

Western Confederation
PAC: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St
X: Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa St, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
B1G: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St
MWC: San Diego St, UNLV, Boise St, Utah, Colorado St, New Mexico, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Tulsa

Eastern Confederation
SEC: LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida
ACC: Florida St, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, Maryland, Penn St
Great 10: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Miami, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College
Metro: Houston, Tulane, Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida, East Carolina, Temple, Connecticut

I think the notion of whether we move toward 60 members in the upper tier (down 5) or to 72 (up 7) is a viable debate. Conference structure however is not a viable debate. The existing conferences could move to 16 or 18 or even 20. If it's the latter we shed 5 programs and round out at 60. If it is either 18 or 16 we will likely remain with 4 conferences.

Absolutely nothing will happen that requires radical and comprehensive movement. If leagues are formed they will be formed using existing conferences.

At this juncture nobody is going to risk the social rejection that massive shifts in alignments would cause. The networks, conferences and schools would be against it.

Trading around schools even in the simplest ways isn't even remotely likely.

The title of this thread is "If the SEC did expand again and did so from the Big 12 who should we take and why?". While it has deviated slightly from that in 136 pages of shifting speculation, that remains the OP. And when the speculation has shifted it has usually been with the speculation of where enough of the other schools might go for it to be able to happen sooner than the expiration of the GOR and while those reasons are now moot, they were germane at the time they were posted.

At times the thread has speculated about how both the Big 12 and possibly the ACC might be divided if we moved to 3 conferences of 20.

As of late due to the Network purchase speculation about how the PAC might be included has led to some larger speculation than the moves the SEC might make.

That's all okay. What I don't want the thread to become is one where every imaginable re-division of all of FBS football is created, which is frequently the case on the main board. Since this is the SEC board as long as the speculation involves the schools the SEC might "gain" it is allowable. What it is not is a thread about is how to redivide the SEC.

iMre than likely we will remain at 4 conferences, it is how the TV contracts are structured with conference networks.
The only mystery is will Texas go to the PAC (and Oklahoma to the SEC) or vice versa.

The only movement I see possible between conferences would be Missouri to the B1G along with Iowa State.
In that case Texas, Texas Tech and either Baylor or TCU (and one of the two would be out) would head to the SEC, while Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State went west. This would keep all of the old Big 8 schools together in the B1G/PAC alliance and the old SWC schools still playing at the top level in the SEC. Baylor/TCU could join other SWC alumni and stay in a meaningful compact division of the AAC.
BTW, West Virginia wold join their old Big East mates in the ACC.
This is how you can move from the 7 conferences we grew up with down to 4 with minimal disruption of regional flavor, and maximum historical continuity.


BTW there are some in the ACC that won't tolerate a division of all North Carolina schools:
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt
West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville
Carolina, Duke, UVA, Georgia Tech
Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson

(12-17-2017 06:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  More than likely we will remain at 4 conferences, it is how the TV contracts are structured with conference networks.
The only mystery is will Texas go to the PAC (and Oklahoma to the SEC) or vice versa.

The only movement I see possible between conferences would be Missouri to the B1G along with Iowa State.
In that case Texas, Texas Tech and either Baylor or TCU (and one of the two would be out) would head to the SEC, while Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State went west. This would keep all of the old Big 8 schools together in the B1G/PAC alliance and the old SWC schools still playing at the top level in the SEC. Baylor/TCU could join other SWC alumni and stay in a meaningful compact division of the AAC.
BTW, West Virginia wold join there old Big East mates in the ACC.
This is how you can move from the 7 conferences we grew up with down to 4 with minimal disruption of regional flavor, and maximum historical continuity.


BTW there are some in the ACC that won't tolerate a division of all North Carolina schools:
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt
West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville
Carolina, Duke, UVA, Georgia Tech
Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson

Yep we discussed something similar about a year or so ago when I suggested that the old SWC schools would wind up with ESPN and the Big 8 schools would wind up with FOX.

Only now, I'd say it would be a hard sell to move an existing school in either the SEC or Big 10. So Texas and Texas Tech still do the trick for the SEC and Missouri stays put. If the scenario of which you speak comes to pass.

But if the PAC refuses to cooperate unless Texas is involved then the Oklahoma pair come to the SEC. And I still consider that more likely. I think 3 Texas schools to the PAC is more doable than 3 Texas schools to the SEC where we already have 1. And under the Texas umbrella Kansas State perhaps finds a home in the PAC. Kansas and Iowa State to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC.

But anyway you slice it at 64 Baylor is now probably out. Only a move to a P4 of 18 schools each includes Baylor.

(12-17-2017 12:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 06:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  More than likely we will remain at 4 conferences, it is how the TV contracts are structured with conference networks.
The only mystery is will Texas go to the PAC (and Oklahoma to the SEC) or vice versa.

The only movement I see possible between conferences would be Missouri to the B1G along with Iowa State.
In that case Texas, Texas Tech and either Baylor or TCU (and one of the two would be out) would head to the SEC, while Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State went west. This would keep all of the old Big 8 schools together in the B1G/PAC alliance and the old SWC schools still playing at the top level in the SEC. Baylor/TCU could join other SWC alumni and stay in a meaningful compact division of the AAC.
BTW, West Virginia wold join there old Big East mates in the ACC.
This is how you can move from the 7 conferences we grew up with down to 4 with minimal disruption of regional flavor, and maximum historical continuity.


BTW there are some in the ACC that won't tolerate a division of all North Carolina schools:
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt
West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville
Carolina, Duke, UVA, Georgia Tech
Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson

Yep we discussed something similar about a year or so ago when I suggested that the old SWC schools would wind up with ESPN and the Big 8 schools would wind up with FOX.

Only now, I'd say it would be a hard sell to move an existing school in either the SEC or Big 10. So Texas and Texas Tech still do the trick for the SEC and Missouri stays put. If the scenario of which you speak comes to pass.

But if the PAC refuses to cooperate unless Texas is involved then the Oklahoma pair come to the SEC. And I still consider that more likely. I think 3 Texas schools to the PAC is more doable than 3 Texas schools to the SEC where we already have 1. And under the Texas umbrella Kansas State perhaps finds a home in the PAC. Kansas and Iowa State to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC.

But anyway you slice it at 64 Baylor is now probably out. Only a move to a P4 of 18 schools each includes Baylor.

The only monkey wrench being thrown into that scenario is the PAC conference deciding to stay with their current Tier 3 systems with some venomously opposed to it due to lack of revenue and terrible scheduling and kickoff times.

With schools like USC, UCLA and the Arizona schools rumored to be concerned and looking at options outside the PAC to close the revenue gap, seeing a school depart that conference first will shape the next round of expansion.

(12-17-2017 06:30 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 12:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 06:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  More than likely we will remain at 4 conferences, it is how the TV contracts are structured with conference networks.
The only mystery is will Texas go to the PAC (and Oklahoma to the SEC) or vice versa.

The only movement I see possible between conferences would be Missouri to the B1G along with Iowa State.
In that case Texas, Texas Tech and either Baylor or TCU (and one of the two would be out) would head to the SEC, while Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State went west. This would keep all of the old Big 8 schools together in the B1G/PAC alliance and the old SWC schools still playing at the top level in the SEC. Baylor/TCU could join other SWC alumni and stay in a meaningful compact division of the AAC.
BTW, West Virginia wold join there old Big East mates in the ACC.
This is how you can move from the 7 conferences we grew up with down to 4 with minimal disruption of regional flavor, and maximum historical continuity.


BTW there are some in the ACC that won't tolerate a division of all North Carolina schools:
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt
West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville
Carolina, Duke, UVA, Georgia Tech
Florida State, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson

Yep we discussed something similar about a year or so ago when I suggested that the old SWC schools would wind up with ESPN and the Big 8 schools would wind up with FOX.

Only now, I'd say it would be a hard sell to move an existing school in either the SEC or Big 10. So Texas and Texas Tech still do the trick for the SEC and Missouri stays put. If the scenario of which you speak comes to pass.

But if the PAC refuses to cooperate unless Texas is involved then the Oklahoma pair come to the SEC. And I still consider that more likely. I think 3 Texas schools to the PAC is more doable than 3 Texas schools to the SEC where we already have 1. And under the Texas umbrella Kansas State perhaps finds a home in the PAC. Kansas and Iowa State to the Big 10, West Virginia to the ACC.

But anyway you slice it at 64 Baylor is now probably out. Only a move to a P4 of 18 schools each includes Baylor.

The only monkey wrench being thrown into that scenario is the PAC conference deciding to stay with their current Tier 3 systems with some venomously opposed to it due to lack of revenue and terrible scheduling and kickoff times.

With schools like USC, UCLA and the Arizona schools rumored to be concerned and looking at options outside the PAC to close the revenue gap, seeing a school depart that conference first will shape the next round of expansion.

Agreed. If the PAC looks vulnerable Texas will only dig in like a tick. I guess that's why the key will still be Oklahoma. Should they manage to win the CFP this year it will only help them dig in as well.

(12-15-2017 09:33 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 02:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 12:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:27 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593

Quote:Walt Disney ( DIS ) said Thursday that it has reached a $66.1 billion deal to acquire 21st Century Fox 's ( FOXA ) entertainment assets, as the media giant prepares to up the ante against Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) in streaming content.

Disney will pay $52.4 billion in stock as well as assume $13.7 billion in debt to buy 21st Century Fox. Disney will get the 20th Century Fox's movie and TV studios, key Fox cable channels, and certain international properties.

Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a separately traded firm before the Disney takeover.

With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

I would be confident that the combination of Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, and UCLA would leave for the B1G. Arizona and Colorado may be invited along.

Washington St, Oregon St, Utah, and Arizona St along with BYU, San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, and Houston. West Virginia finding a home in the ACC or SEC.

It's not going to work that way. First of all B.Y.U., San Diego State, Boise State, and others of their ilk won't find their way into any Eastern conference period. The revenue is too ridiculously low and the travel expense too high.

Washington State and Oregon State are too small and remote to make it.

It is still more likely that the PAC stays together and adds 4 from the Big 12. Now in order to land that 12 they're going to have to sell ESPN their PACN. That will enable Texas, Texas Tech, and two others to make that move.

And if they didn't agree to it and the PAC got parsed, which is much much less likely to happen, then where would those schools move their sports? Would they go with FOX's FS1 & FS2 given the political differences of those two groups, or would they go with PC Disney which has it's original enterprise in California?

I would seriously look for them to strike a deal with Disney which means the Big 12 gets a face lift. The most screwed college sports enterprise coming out of this deal is the BTN which I imagine was left in FOX's hands to allay claims of a monopoly. There were other streaming and movie producers out there. But if FS1 and FS2 along with the BTN are taken then ESPN has a monopoly. FS1 and FS2 will be taken care of as will the BTN but make no mistake their content boosts will be perks from Disney and they will be even less of a player moving forward. The Big 10 won't be hurt by this financially, but if any divisions of schools comes out of it look for fair treatment, but no exceptional treatment.

The LHN can be used now to pool all Big 12 T3 rights into it. If that happens and it becomes the B12N then Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, definitely become interesting possibilities.

Look for W.V.U. to move to either the SEC or ACC. Look for ESPN to encourage a Texas private or two to move as well. Maybe T.C.U. to the SEC, especially if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State remain in a rebuilding Big 12. If the Big 10 grows out of this then Colorado and Kansas make sense to go with Nebraska. The Big 10 like the SEC isn't going to grow with gaps and remote schools. Those two fit and still provide the BTN with a large market in Denver and gives the Big 10 the schools where both football and basketball began (Rutgers and Kansas).

Personally, I think the California schools stick together and that Oregon and Washington will want that as well. Utah gets the last slot in the Big 12.

I still think if the PAC is absorbed that Washington State and Oregon State join with the aforementioned smaller West Coast schools to form some new sort of WAC which with a rebuilt and consolidated AAC become by far the best of the G2. And if that can be done then a new upper division is formed consisting of the new P4 and the new G2.

But most likely what comes of this is that the 4 Texas schools, or 3 Texas schools & Kansas State move to the PAC and the LHN becomes ESPN's version of the PACN, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC. Iowa State and Kansas head to the Big 10. And West Virginia and Notre Dame join the ACC.

The wild card IMO is Notre Dame. They might opt to join the Big 10 for the cash and academic relationship, and ease of travel for minor sports should they be forced to go all in. If they do so then Notre Dame and Kansas are the adds in the Big 10. Then Connecticut and West Virginia probably round out the ACC.

So if the PAC sticks together we might see this:

Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State


SEC

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big 10

Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers


ACC

Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

If it doesn't go that way it turns out like a posted about a page ago in this thread.

Minimal movement is the most likely path, not ideal, just the most likely for now.

The list in bold is pretty close to what B12 absorptions may look like in the 4 @ 16 P4 design. The problem would be getting a consensus in some cooperative design whereby all are happy, i. e. B12 schools, PAC, ACC, BIG, SEC, Notre Dame, and the networks. Of course G5 would have added complaints but less power, given they are fully bypassed.

Whose going to be the catalyst to set it all up? If the motivation will be really evident, there could be a way. Doing it piecemeal, it will just look different, and a conference could opt for a particular G5 school instead of B12 being the sole feeder.

And somebody may have to pay-off disenfranchised Baylor. Just saying.....

(12-20-2017 09:21 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 09:33 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 02:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 12:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-14-2017 08:27 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Well, some clarity on what goes where with today's news, but leaving a few new questions:


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/disney-to-...l-cm891593


With the billions of dollars that will come in while keeping the BTN, I could see the remaining Fox company look into purchasing the Pac network. Even as a smaller company, Fox still has valuable assets and more money to play with. The issue now is that they can no longer have the comic book characters and movie studio to bring in the cash. Also, the NFL deal expires in the next decade.

College sports is still a cheaper deal but with less margin for error they're going to have to pick and choose which will provide the most value from now on. I think at this point the prime B12 programs are effectively out of any discussion, so it's down to the West Coast PAC AAU schools or nothing, with nothing being in the lead unless "Remain Fox" backs it up with serious money to cover travel expenses.

Another thought is that the Big Ten and Big Twelve divvy up the PAC, with the PAC programs exchanging the shares of the PAC Network for shares of BTN and whatever network replaces the LHN. I'm not sure if that's possible, tax wise, but it's an interesting thought.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

or

Washington, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Colorado

That leaves:

Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona State to BXII with either Arizona/Colorado or USC/Stanford.

Would they keep the Big East or look into acquiring G5 content to fill up some timeslots? What happens to Fox College Sports?

I would be confident that the combination of Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, and UCLA would leave for the B1G. Arizona and Colorado may be invited along.

Washington St, Oregon St, Utah, and Arizona St along with BYU, San Diego St, Boise St, Colorado St, and Houston. West Virginia finding a home in the ACC or SEC.

It's not going to work that way. First of all B.Y.U., San Diego State, Boise State, and others of their ilk won't find their way into any Eastern conference period. The revenue is too ridiculously low and the travel expense too high.

Washington State and Oregon State are too small and remote to make it.

It is still more likely that the PAC stays together and adds 4 from the Big 12. Now in order to land that 12 they're going to have to sell ESPN their PACN. That will enable Texas, Texas Tech, and two others to make that move.

And if they didn't agree to it and the PAC got parsed, which is much much less likely to happen, then where would those schools move their sports? Would they go with FOX's FS1 & FS2 given the political differences of those two groups, or would they go with PC Disney which has it's original enterprise in California?

I would seriously look for them to strike a deal with Disney which means the Big 12 gets a face lift. The most screwed college sports enterprise coming out of this deal is the BTN which I imagine was left in FOX's hands to allay claims of a monopoly. There were other streaming and movie producers out there. But if FS1 and FS2 along with the BTN are taken then ESPN has a monopoly. FS1 and FS2 will be taken care of as will the BTN but make no mistake their content boosts will be perks from Disney and they will be even less of a player moving forward. The Big 10 won't be hurt by this financially, but if any divisions of schools comes out of it look for fair treatment, but no exceptional treatment.

The LHN can be used now to pool all Big 12 T3 rights into it. If that happens and it becomes the B12N then Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, definitely become interesting possibilities.

Look for W.V.U. to move to either the SEC or ACC. Look for ESPN to encourage a Texas private or two to move as well. Maybe T.C.U. to the SEC, especially if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State remain in a rebuilding Big 12. If the Big 10 grows out of this then Colorado and Kansas make sense to go with Nebraska. The Big 10 like the SEC isn't going to grow with gaps and remote schools. Those two fit and still provide the BTN with a large market in Denver and gives the Big 10 the schools where both football and basketball began (Rutgers and Kansas).

Personally, I think the California schools stick together and that Oregon and Washington will want that as well. Utah gets the last slot in the Big 12.

I still think if the PAC is absorbed that Washington State and Oregon State join with the aforementioned smaller West Coast schools to form some new sort of WAC which with a rebuilt and consolidated AAC become by far the best of the G2. And if that can be done then a new upper division is formed consisting of the new P4 and the new G2.

But most likely what comes of this is that the 4 Texas schools, or 3 Texas schools & Kansas State move to the PAC and the LHN becomes ESPN's version of the PACN, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the SEC. Iowa State and Kansas head to the Big 10. And West Virginia and Notre Dame join the ACC.

The wild card IMO is Notre Dame. They might opt to join the Big 10 for the cash and academic relationship, and ease of travel for minor sports should they be forced to go all in. If they do so then Notre Dame and Kansas are the adds in the Big 10. Then Connecticut and West Virginia probably round out the ACC.

So if the PAC sticks together we might see this:

Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal

California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State


SEC

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big 10

Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska

Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers


ACC

Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

If it doesn't go that way it turns out like a posted about a page ago in this thread.

Minimal movement is the most likely path, not ideal, just the most likely for now.

The list in bold is pretty close to what B12 absorptions may look like in the 4 @ 16 P4 design. The problem would be getting a consensus in some cooperative design whereby all are happy, i. e. B12 schools, PAC, ACC, BIG, SEC, Notre Dame, and the networks. Of course G5 would have added complaints but less power, given they are fully bypassed.

Whose going to be the catalyst to set it all up? If the motivation will be really evident, there could be a way. Doing it piecemeal, it will just look different, and a conference could opt for a particular G5 school instead of B12 being the sole feeder.

And somebody may have to pay-off disenfranchised Baylor. Just saying.....

ESPN owns the AAC. If they move Baylor there all they have to do legally is to pay Baylor their B12 rate through 2025. The Bears were going to be on their own come that time anyway. And in the AAC they join Houston and S.M.U..